© 2019

From Technologies to Markets

2019 Report

Towards ADAS to Imaging radar for

automotive market and

technology trends

Cédric Malaquin, Analyst - RF Devices & Technologies, malaquin@yole.fr

2| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

DRIVING AUTOMATION

SAE level and sensing technology

Automated drive helps in

raising the number of

sensors. The full set of sensors is

required by OEM to

reach highly automated

drive.

5

4

3

2

1

0BSD

FCW/AEB

LDW

LKA

ACC

TJA

HP

DM

LKA

ACC

AD

AD

VPA

Feature AD time AD condition Sensing technologyActuation type

&

&

&

&

1-3

6

1-3

1-3

6

1-3

3-7

8

1-3

3-7

8

5-6

1

3-7

8

5-6

2

3-7

8

5-6

4

orRadar

Camera

Ultrasonic

Lidar

3| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADARS SENSORS FOR PC/LCV

Some examples

5+ conventional radar used

for automated

drive

4| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR SENSORS FOR ROBOTIC CARS

Main players

Much more sensing

capability enabled by Radar in

robotic car either by

prominent custom

Radar or by high number of standard

Radar

Custom Radars

Custom/Standard

Radar mix

4X LRR HR

3X LRR HR

2X LRR HR

5X standard LRR

10X standardStandard Radar

3X LRR HR

8X standard LRR

10X USRR

5| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION

From assisted drive to automated drive

Radar will improve in

resolution and reduce in cost

and size, enabling the creation of a safety cocoon around the car

120°/50m

Level 0 - Level 1 - Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

20°/250m

Driver assistance Automated drive

120°/50m

120°/90m

20°/250m

120°/90m

120°/90m

120°/90m

120°/90m 120°/90m120°/30m

20°/250m

120°/90m 120°/90m120°/30m

120°/90m 120°/90m120°/30m

120°/90m 120°/90m120°/30m

20°/250m20°/250m

2 SRR

$60

1 LRR

$90

4 MRR/SRR

$45

1 LRR

$80

6 SRR

$25

2 LRR

$50

4 MRR/SRR

2 SRR

$30

1 LRR

$70

24 GHz / 77 GHz 79 GHz / 77 GHz 79 GHz / 77 GHz

79 GHz / 77 GHz

2015 2018 2025 2035

66| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

FREQUENCY REGULATION

24 GHz UWB (21.65-26.65)

24GHz NB (24.05 to 24.25)

77 GHz (76-77)

79 GHz (77-81)

Range ShortResolution HighInteroperability BadApplication BSDProhibited

in Europe

after 2022

Range Medium to longResolution MediumInteroperability GoodApplication ACC, AEB

Worldwide

agreement

MOSARIM project

79GHz project

FCC agreement

07/17Range Short to mediumResolution HighInteroperability GoodApplication AEB pedestrian, PA

Range ShortResolution PoorInteroperability GoodApplication BSD

ISM band

limitation

24 GHz tends to be replaced by 79 GHz which can be used for both short and mid range

7| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR REGULATION

Radar frequency allocation

Toward the 77/79 GHz

frequency band harmonization.

Unified frequency band from short to

long range adopted in the

US and suggested ETSI

for CEPT approval

< 2015 2018 2020 2022 2024+

ISM 24.05-24.25 GHz

UWB 21.65-26.65 GHz

76-81 GHz : LRR and SRR

UWB 22-29 GHz

76-77 GHz : LRR

Worldwide

76-81 GHz : LRR and SRR

76-77 GHz : LRR

77-81 GHz : SRR

UWB 22-29 GHz

78-81 GHz : LRR

UWB 24.25-26.65 GHz

76-77 GHz : LRR

?

?

76-81 GHz : LRR and SRR? ?

88| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR EQUATION

Pr Received power

Pt Transmitted power

Gr Reception antenna gain

Gt Transmission antenna gain

λ Wave length

σ Radar cross section

R Target range

Lsys System losses

From radar equation, range is a function of

• Wave Length

• Transmitted power (regulated by frequency band). It is defined by radar chipset power and

antenna gain

• Radar Cross Section (RCS) which represents the reflectivity of targets.

• Received power which depends on antenna gain and receiver sensitivity (phase noise)

Signal over noise ratio must at least be higher than 12 dB to ensure high probability of target

detection and low false alarm rate.

• System losses (packaging, chips back end, …)

Received power is critical for target detection.

Radar design, noise, and system loss management, are key parameters to enable high probability of detection.

99| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

FREQUENCY BAND PERFORMANCE COMPARISON

Higher frequency and wider bandwidth improve radar performance

Velocity

resolution

Angle

resolution

Range

resolution

Better performance

Source: CEPT/Yole

24 GHz UWB improved range

resolutions.

77 GHz improved angle and

velocity resolutions.

79 GHz drastically improved range

resolution.

Higher frequency (122/140 GHz)

could then further reduce velocity

and angle resolutions while range

resolution will depend on the

available bandwidth.

Velocity

resolution

Angle

resolution

Range

resolution

Velocity

resolution

Angle

resolution

Range

resolution

Velocity

resolution

Angle

resolution

Range

resolution

1010| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR CROSS SECTION

Source European Commission - Joint Research Center

Automotive radar must deal with low RCS to detect pedestrians

The higher the frequency / The larger the object.

The better the Radar Cross Section (RSC),

the higher probability of detection.

RCS is a function of several physical parameters

such as :

– Target material

– Target shape

– Target range

– Back scattered wave frequency.

Pedestrian case studyTypical RCS (dBsm)

-10

7

20

45

1111| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR SUPPLY CHAIN – OVERALL VIEW

Well consolidated supply chain from US and Europe market. Chinese ecosystem is emerging with many new comers

Tier1

Module supplier

Tier2

Chip supplier

Fabless/IDM/Foundry

OEMTier1.5

Module supplier

Willing

to move

12| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR SUPPLY CHAIN

Main components in a Radar system

NXP and Infineon historical

leadership in mmWave IC and MCU. TI and Analog

devices coming from digital and

analog domain start to invade RF-

mmWavedomain.

TxDAC

ADCVCO

Rx

MCU

xTal

DSP

Digital Analog

RF- mmWave

13| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

BILL OF MATERIAL

Full system cost

System Plus consulting analysis

enable full system cost

review which highlight a

MMIC fraction of

roughly 15%

14| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

COMMERCIAL RADAR TODAY

RF board

System Plus consulting teardown enable the analysis of current systems

15| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2019 2020 2021

Dimension (mm²)

AUTOMOTIVE RADAR TREND

Radar size

Radar size has been reduced by a factor of 2-3 depending

on the manufacturer over the past

10 years.

SRR2

RACAM

LRR4

ARS-4

FR5

SRR520

SRR510

ARS510

Siz

e (

mm

²)

16| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

AUTOMOTIVE RADAR TREND

Radar channel and Resolution

The trend is to move forward

with an increase of Tx

and Rx antenna / channels

leading to an increase of

antenna aperture. However combining antenna

aperture with small size is challenging

1 Tx 1 Rx

4 Tx 12 Rx

12 Tx 16 Rx

9 Tx 8 Rx

Elevation and Separation capability

Siz

e a

bove 1

0000 c

m²

3 Tx 4 Rx

48 Tx 72 Rx

17| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

COMMERCIAL RADAR MMIC

77-79 GHz

1st

generation of SiGe

transceiver is currently

replaced by more

integrated solutions,

either SiGeor CMOS technology.

Infineon moved from RRN77/RTN77 platform to

RXS86 platform integrating all features in a single

transceiver. A CMOS platform is under development

for ultra short range application.

SiGe-130nm SiGe-180nm

SiGe-130nm

eWLB 2x36mm²

eWLB 59mm²

SiGe-180nm

Tx 3ch

VCORx 4ch

Tx 3ch

Rx 4ch

VCO,

ADC

Tx 3ch

Rx 4ch

VCO,

ADC

ST Microelectronic has directly launched a

single integrated transceiver. A 12bit ADC is

included, as well as 2 different VCO for 76-77

GHz and 77-81 GHz bands.

eWLB 81mm²

Power consumption 3W

Tx 2ch Rx 3ch VCO

RCP 3x36mm²

Power consumption 2.5W

NXP moved from its historical MR2001 platform

with 2 integrated options in parallel: MR3003 (SiGe)

and TEF810 (CMOS). However MR3003 no longer is

recommended for new design, meaning future

development will happen on the CMOS platform

Tx 3ch

Rx 4ch

VCO,

ADC

SiGe-180nm

WLCSP 71mm²

Tx 3ch

Rx 4ch

VCO,

ADC

CMOS 40nm

WLCSP 55mm²

Tx 3ch

Rx 4ch

VCO,

ADC

CMOS 28nm

Under development

Short/Mid/Long range Ultra Short Range

Tx 3ch

Rx 4ch

VCO, ADC,

BB

CMOS 45nm

FCCSP 108mm²

Tx 3ch

Rx 4ch

VCO,BB

ADC, MCU

CMOS 45nm

FCCSP 108mm²

High performance

Entry level

TI has developed 2 fully integrated CMOS

based product lines. AWR1243/AWR1443

are the 2 solutions for multimode sensing.

AWR1642 include a MCU and is intended

for tiny sensor in application that make

sense for it (park assist).

18| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

SEMI CONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE

Bulk CMOS and 2nd generation of SiGe Bi-CMOS are the competing technology for the next generation Radar

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200

Ft /

Fm

ax (

GH

z)

Technology node (nm)

Radar IC Cut Off frequency

Ft (GHz) CMOS

Fmax (GHz) CMOS

Ft (GHz) SiGe

Fmax (GHz) SiGe

FDSOI

Bulk CMOS

FinFET

SiGe Bi-CMOS

SiGe Bi-CMOS to be demonstrated

4x F operation

• From 2009-2010, 1st generation of SiGeBi-CMOS Radar IC technology hasramped to progressively replace GaAstechnology. Up to 2018, it was used forcurrent Rada

• From 2018, 2nd generation of SiGe Bi-CMOS and bulk CMOS Radar IC havebeen made commercially available. BulkCMOS is similar to 2nd generation SiGeBi-CMOS in terms of cut off frequencyperformance. CMOS with an optimal gatelength (45 to 28nm) and 2nd generation ofSiGe Bi-CMOS (130nm) enable a greatmargin of 4x the operation frequency (77GHz)

• 22nm FDSOI is also a candidate for RadarIC. It is used by Arbe Robotics withGlobal Foundries 22FDX platform

• 16nm FinFET won’t compete in the RadarIC field

19| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

SEMI CONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE

Output power and Temperature stability

CMOS Radar IC need to overcome

output power

stability over the

frequency range to

tackle the long range detection

RT 125°C-45°C

2nd gen SiGe Bi-CMOS

15

14

13

12

11

10

Tx

pow

er

dB

m

CMOS

1st gen SiGe Bi-CMOS

RXS81

• Output power performance logically followcut off frequency ranking

• CMOS Radar output power is close to 2nd

generation of SiGe Bi-CMOS

• Output power stability in temperature (andin frequency) is an important criterion forthe automotive industry

• Target would be to get 14 dBm along thewhole temperature range and frequencyrange

20| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR MMIC PACKAGING

eWLB vs FC CSP

Fan Out type of packaging such as

eWLB has the advantage in terms of RF performance,

silicon mm² and power

consumption. However, some level of signal

processing can be included in the

chip with FC CSP and it might avoid having to use an FPGA or a MCU

0.65W2W

21| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

OVERALL MARKET VEHICLE FORECAST

By SAE level

Automated drive

penetration will be

incremental.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Robotic vehicle 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

SAE level 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

SAE level 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1

SAE level 3 0 0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.7 5.8 7.6

SAE level 2 8.2 9.8 10.9 11.9 13.4 15.1 16.5 18.5 20.8 22.8 25.2

SAE level 1 24.0 26.9 28.4 29.9 33.1 35.4 37.9 40.2 42.5 45.3 47.4

SAE level 0 59.3 59.1 58.2 55.7 51.8 49.0 46.5 43.8 41.1 37.7 35.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ve

hic

le in

Mu

Overall vehicle forecast 2015-2025• SAE level 1 & 2 market penetrationwell established

• SAE level 3 market penetration hasjust begun. German brand likely topush this level, but many brandswilling to skip that level and gostraight forward to level 4

• No level 4 expected until 2025

• Robotic vehicles already on theroad with high automation level,but in restricted area

Sources Marklines, Decision Conseil, Internal

22| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025CAGR2015-2025

79 GHz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8 12.3 25.3 39.3 55.1 70.9 0.0%

77 GHz 11.3 15.8 21.2 27.8 36.6 46.3 60.5 76.6 95.5 113.3 123.2 27.0%

24 GHz 13.4 20.8 27.8 35.1 43.7 46.6 46.0 40.5 31.7 20.1 12.7 -0.6%

Overall Forecast 2018 30 41 56 74 84 93 104

0

50

100

150

200

Rad

ar m

od

ule

(M

u)

Radar module forecast 2015-2025 (Mu)

RADAR MODULE FORECAST

Split per frequency

Radar market growth

acceleration with AD level

2+/level3.77-79 GHz

radar module sales will be larger than

24 GHz from 2020

• 24 GHz radar module demand stillgrowing up to 2020 due toattractive price point. Since 24GHz will be restricted to Narrowband operation and 79 GHzmodule start to roll, we expect 24GHz module to start decreasingfrom 2020

• 77 GHz radar module growth ismainly pulled by AEB adoption

• 79 GHz radar module to takeoverfrom 2020 onward thanks tobetter resolution demand fromOEM as well as competitive price.

Classical ADAS+AEB

AEB+AD level2+/level3

23| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR CHIP FORECAST

Split per frequency

Overall MMIC

demand is growing at a 18.7% CAGR with a clear

trend to integrate higher

frequency products.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025CAGR2015-2025

79 GHz 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8 12.3 25.3 39.3 55.1 70.9 0.0%

77 GHz 26.5 40.2 58.3 80.7 106.7 131.3 153.0 166.3 173.4 180.6 180.1 21.1%

24 GHz 23.0 37.2 49.5 61.6 74.6 78.6 75.2 64.3 52.4 36.9 25.0 0.8%

Forecast 2018 72.2 99.1 134.2 168.8 183.8 191.6 199.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ch

ip s

ale

s (M

u)

Radar chip forecast 2015 - 2025 (Mu)• 24 GHz Radar chip market is modestlygrowing up to 2020. Few new productshave been released by the Tier1 on thisfrequency band. 24 GHz market leaderssuch as Hella will start to introduce 77GHz products from 2021, new shortrange product release from Continentalare based on 77/79 GHz frequency band.Bosch already produce 100% of 77 GHz

• As a consequence, demand for 77 GHzRadar MMIC is booming, moreover as77 GHz radar module often require amultichip solution (from 2 up to 7).From 2022 we expect more single chipsolution to be implemented whichresults in lower MMIC demand.

• 79 GHz radar MMIC is expected tophase in from 2020 as a supporttechnology for short range highresolution Radar

Multichip solution

Single chip solution

24| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

FUTURE CHALLENGE FOR RADAR

4 steps toward super sensor

Future radar development

toward automated

drive

Elevation capability

High resolution

AvailabilityInterference mitigation

Image processingAI/Deep learning

3D

Measure height

4D

Discriminate nearby objects

Ensure no miss

Classification, Labelling

2525| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION: ROAD TO HIGH RESOLUTION

Leveraging military and telecom technologies, advanced radar technology fully support up to level 4 autonomy with high resolution and radar imaging coming to the market with low C-SWAP.

X,Y,Doppler

X,Y,Z,Doppler

High resolution

X,Y,Z,Doppler,depth

X,Y,Doppler

Ultra high resolution

X,Y,Z,Doppler,depth

2D ADAS

Basic

2D ADAS

improved

3D

4D HR

4D UHR

X,Y,Z,Doppler,depth

AI/Deep Learning

Imaging

Resolution, classification and object tracking capability

Ch

an

nel

nu

mb

er

/ R

ad

ar

ap

ertu

reLRR 4th gen

ARS 5th gen

WARLORD TM

C-SWAP: Cost Size Weight and Power

Digital Beam Forming and MIMO technologies

Analog Beam Forming and metamaterials

Icon Ultres/Phoenix

2626| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

RADAR IN A NUTSHELL

Radar offer interesting capabilities for autonomous driving and will be a robust sensor in the sensor mix

2727| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

YOLE REPORT COLLECTION – SOME AUTOMOTIVE REPORTS

28| Radar and wireless technologies for automotive | www.yole.fr | ©2019

YOLE 2.0 – 4 DIVISIONS

Life Sciences

& Healthcare o Microfluidic

o BioMEMS

o Inkjet Printing

o Solid-State Medical Imaging & BioPhotonics

o Bio Technologies

Power

& Wireless

o RF Devices & Technology

o Compound Semiconductors & Emerging Materials

o Power Electronics

o Batteries & Energy Management

Semiconductor

& Software o Package & Assembly & Substrates

o Semiconductor Manufacturing

o Memory

o Software & Computing

Photonics,

Sensing & Display

o Solid-State Lighting & Display

o MEMS, Sensors & Actuators

o Imaging

o Photonics & Optoelectronics

Semiconductor

& Software

Power & Wireless

Photonics,

Sensing

& Display

Life

Sciences &

Healthcare

Cédric Malaquin, Analyst - RF Devices & Technologies, malaquin@yole.fr