cec cog model version 2.02-4!5!10
TRANSCRIPT
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INSTRUCTIONS- Do not attempt to use Model before reading lines 3 - 27.
This model should not be used for a Start Year more than 10 years in the future because it is not
reasonable to forecast detailed plant performance and cost data beyond that point.
It is preferable to first read the COG Model's User's Guide, but the following instructions will allow you to use the Model.
Note: Model is designed to work with Excel 2000 and later versions. Some functions may not work with Excel 97.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR EXCEL VERSIONS 2001- 20031. If, when opening the model, Excel gives you the option to "Enable Macros" select this option.
If Excel gives you the message that the Macros are disabled, set security level to Medium. (Under Tools--> Options-->Security-->Macro Security, set security level to Medium)
Save, close and then reopen Model. If you do not enable the macros, the Model will not work correctly.
2.Go to INPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet and follow instructions for entering data and saving scenarios.
Standard Technologies can be selected in the "Input Selection" table.3.Read Levelized Costs in the "Output Results" table on theINPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet.
INSTRUCTIONS FOR EXCEL VERSIONS 20071.When opening the model, a message will appear just above the COG Model worksheet:
Security Warning Some active content has been disabled followed by a box with the word"Options"Click on that box and a window will open, with two options. Select the Enable this content option,
click on the Okay box, and the window will close thus activating the macros.
Save, close and then reopen Model. If you do not enable the macros, the Model will not work correctly.
2.Go to INPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet and follow instructions for entering data and saving scenarios.
Standard Technologies can be selected in the "Input Selection" table.3.Read Levelized Costs in the "Output Results" table on theINPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet.
MODEL STRUCTURE
The Worksheets are color coded to assist in understanding the model.Changes Tracks Model modifications using version numbers.
Instructions General Instructions & Model Description.
WEP Forecast Estimates Wholesale Electric Price Forecast
Adders Provides Adder Costs that can be entered exogenously for the combined cycle & simple cycle units.
Input-Output User selects Assumptions - Levelized Costs are reported along with some key data values.
Data 1 Plant, Financial, & Tax Data are summarized - User can override data for unique scenarios.
Data 2 Construction, O&M Costs are calculated in base year dollars.
Income Statement Calculates Annual Costs and Levelizes those Costs Using Revenue Requirement accounting
Income Cash -Flow Calculates Annual Costs and Levelizes those Costs Using Cash-Flow accounting
Plant Type Assumptions Summary of Data Assumptions summary for each Plant Type.
PTA - Average Average Plant Type AssumptionsPTA - High High Plant Type Assumptions
PTA - Low Low Plant Type Assumptions
Financial Assumptions Data Assumptions summary of all Financial Data.
General Assumptions General Assumptions summary such as Inflation Rates & Tax Rates.
Plant Site Air & Water Data Regional Air Emissions & Water Costs - Used by Data 2 Worksheet.
Overhaul Calcs Calculates Overhaul & Equipment Replacement Costs - Used by Data 2 Worksheet.
Inflation Calculates Historical & Forward Inflation Rates based on GDP Price Deflator Series - Used by Income Statement Workshe
Fuel Price Forecasts Fuel Price Forecast - Used by the Income Statement Worksheet.
Heat Rate Table Shows the regression and provides the Heat Rate factors.
Labor Table Calculates the Labor Cost components.
The data assumptions are primarily stored in three Worksheets: Plant Type Assumptions, Financial Assumptions andGeneral
use the INPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet to select assumptions, a macro will place the data you selected into the Data 1 and Data 2 Wo
Data 1 and Data 2 Worksheets will appear coded in the color that corresponds to the assumptions worksheet that it came from. Thepeform various calculations and then make that data available to the Income Statement Worksheet, which calculates all the releve
calculates a Present Value for each and finally calculates the Levelized Values which are sent to theINPUT-OUTPUTWorksheet. TW k h t t Fi d V i bl d T t l L li d C t Th l il bl b th $/kW Y d $/MWh Th INPUT
Protected Cells - Certain cells are "protected" to prevent inadvertentoverwriting by a user that might render the model unusable or inconsistent.
The protection password is "CEC".
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Cost of Generation Inputs
Combined Cycle Standard - 2
Turbines Duct Firin
Financial (Ownership) Assumptions (Select) Merchant Fossil Start Yea
Ownership Type For Scenarios Merchant Capital &
General Assumptions (Select) Default Insurance
Base Year (All Costs In 2009 Dollars) 2009 Ad Valore
Fuel Type (Accept Default) Natural Gas Fixed O&M
Data Source Aspen 5-23-09 Corporate
Fixed Cos
Start (Inservice) Year (Enter) 2009 Fuel & GHNatural Gas Price Forecast (Select) CA Average Variable O
Plant Site Region (Air & Water) (Select) CA - Avg. Variable C
Study Perspective (Select) To Delivery Point Transmis
Reported Construction Cost Basis (Select) Instant Total Lev
Turbine Configuration (Select) 2
Carbon Price Forecast(Select) No Carbon Price
Cost Scenario(Select) Mid-range
Tax Loss Treatment (Select) Loss Recovered in Single Year
Input CodingPlant Type Assumptions
Financial Assumptions Instant Co
General Assumptions Installed C
Data 1 & Data 2 Fixed O&M
Fuel Price Forecast Variable O
Instructions for Input Selection Capacity(Review Instructions Worksheet) 2009
Gross (De
1. Select Plant Type (C5,6) Net Capac 2. Select Financial (Ownership) Assumptions (C7) Net Capac
3. Select General Assumptions (C9) To Delive
4. Enter Start Year (C14)
5. Select Fuel Price - by Area (C15) Operation 6. Select Plant Site Region (C16) Scheduled
7. Select Location Perspective (C17) Forced Ou
8. Identify whether Costs are Instant or Installed (C18) Operation 9. Select Turbine Configuration; for CCs only. Equivalen10. REPEAT INSTRUCTIONS 1, 2 & 3. Capacity F
11. Read Output Results (F8- H17)Fuel Use
Instructions for Saving New Scenario Average (Saving New Seet of Assumptions) Fuel Use
Fuel Price
1. Click Save as New Scenario" Button.2. An Add New Scenario window opens up. Financial
Com
Capital &
Warning: Changing
these cells will
overwrite any
modifications you
have made to that
category of inputs.
Save inputs as a
New Scenario if you
Plant Type Assumptions(Select)
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Cost of Generation Inputs
3. Select the Scenario Type: Plant Type, Financial, or General Equity
4. Enter an appropriate Scenario Name Debt Financed5. Click the Add Button. Discount Rate6. The Scenario is stored on the respective worksheet as selected in step 3.
Inflation Rate F
Instructions for Recalling Saved Scenario Loan/Debt TerEquipment Life
1. Based on the Assumption made the Saved Scenario can be found in that drop down menu. Economic/Boo2. If the Scenario was saved as a Plant Type Assumption it will be stored in that drop down menu box. Federal Tax Lif
Like Wise, it is the same for any other Assumption selected. State Tax Life
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Cost of Generation Inputs
Levelized NPV 2009 2010 2
Fixed Costs $45 $374 $42 $42
Variable Costs $82 $675 $55 $61
Total Costs $127 $1,049 $96 $103 $
Levelized
2009 Levelized NPV 2009 2010 2
N/A Asset Rental Price $50 $411 $45 $46
N/A Fuel & O&M Costs $86 $708 $61 $65
$9.52 Total Costs $135 $1,118 $106 $110 $
$3.66
Energy
(GWh)
3,321.53,225.1
3,209.0
3,141.9
FOR REFERENCE ONLY: BASED ON ASSET RENTAL PRICE
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
$/MWh
Capita
Financin
Construc
25%
Ad Val
Fixed O&
1%Corporate Taxes
(w/Credits)
Fuel & GHG
Emissions Costs60%
Variable O&M
3%
Levelized Cost ComponentsBy Percentage
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Cost of Generation Inputs
450
SCREENING CURVE - Start Year 200CreateScreening
Curve
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Cost of Generation Inp
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202
$48 $49 $49 $50 $51 $5
$102 $106 $113 $117 $122 $12
$150 $154 $163 $167 $173 $17
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202
$53 $54 $55 $56 $57 $5
$106 $109 $117 $121 $125 $12
$159 $163 $172 $176 $182 $18
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 202
Fixed Costs,$45 , 36%
d Cost Components
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Cost of Generation Inputs
inal 2009$)
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COG Model Version 2; 4/4/2010
Version Worksheet Cell(s)
v 2.00 ALL WORKSHEETS ALL
v 2.01 PTA Mid, Hi & Lo Cells 9G-9ICells 18G-18I
v 2.01 PTA Mid D44-I45
v 2.01 PTA Mid G15
v 2.01 PTA Mid, Hi, Lo Row 113
v 2.01 PTA Hi, Lo W36
v 2.02 Input-Output AM 54, etc
Created for IEPR 2009 and Updated for
online release
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to do PSA&W Data
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COG Modelers : Joel Klein , Paul Devers - CEC; Richard McCann - Aspen
ChangeUsed For 2009 IEPR Report "COMPARATIVE COSTS OF CALIFORNIA CENTRAL
STATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION," January 2010
Changed heat rate and capacity degradation for combined cycle units from .2% to .24%to reflect 4 year overhaul period
Update gas O&M costs to conform with "Data Responses for Gas Fired Technologies 6-4-09.xlsx" (revised that file to Data Responses for Gas Fired Technologies 9-28-09.xlsx)
Added regression for Heat Rate formula for non duct-fired combined cycle unit.
Linears removed as they are already accounted for in Instant Costs. Error is quite small.
Changed high Wind CF from 41% to 34%; Low Wind CF from 34% to 41%
Corrected Sensitivity Curve Title and run time error.
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Update ERC forecasts for ARB data
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EG
Comments on changes
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-200-2009-017/CEC-200-2009-017-SF.PDF
For CC duct-fired 70% CF= 3.9 yrs. For CC 75% CF = 3.6 yrs. Rounded off both to 4 years. Effect isneglible, but corrected for accuracy in documentation.
Deleted hard wired labor values as the model matches the file and the model is more transparent.
Formula was inadverdently replaced by singular number.
Envirionmental Adders are also redundant but very small and it simplifies the calculation and allowsfor the time when they are actually significant.
These values were transposed in the KEMA data and only recently noticed.
These problems were introduced by MS Office 2007.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-200-2009-017/CEC-200-2009-017-SF.PDFhttp://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-200-2009-017/CEC-200-2009-017-SF.PDF -
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Author Date
J Klein 26-Jan-10
J Klein 8-Sep-09
R McCann 28-Sep-09
J Klein 28-Sep-09
J Klein 29-Sep-09
J Klein 28-Jan-10
J Klein 5-Apr-10
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Cost of Generation Results
Plant Type Assumptions (Select)
Financial (Ownership) Assumptions (Select) Merchant Fossil
Ownership Type For Scenarios Merchant
General Assumptions (Select) Default
Base Year (All Costs In 2009 Dollars) 2009
Fuel Type (Accept Default) Natural Gas
Data SourceAspen 5-23-09
Start (Inservice) Year (Enter) 2009
Natural Gas Price Forecast (Select) CA Average
Plant Site Region (Air & Water) (Select) CA - Avg.
Study Perspective (Select) To Delivery Point
Reported Construction Cost Basis (Select) Instant
Plant Capacity & Energy DataEffective
Capacity
(MW)
Gross Capacity (MW) 550.00 550.00Plant Losses 2.90%Net Capacity (MW) - Plant Side 534.05 534.05Transformer Losses 0.50%Net Capacity (MW) - Transmission Side 531.38 531.38
Transmission Losses 2.09%
Delivered Capacity (MW) 520.3 520.27Annual Capacity Degradation Rate 0.24%
STUDY PERSPECTIVE 520.27 520.27
Operational Performance Data Hours/Yr
Average Percent Output 100.00%Planned Percent of Year Operational 71.6% 6,273
Number Of Annual Starts 25Scheduled Outage Hours
OR Scheduled Outage Factor 6.02%
Modeled Scheduled Outage Factor 6.0% 527
Final Planned Operational Hours 6,273Forced Outage Rate (FOR) 2.24% 141
Operational (Service) Hours Per Year 6,132
Total Operating Hours Over Life Of Plant 122,640
Equivalent Availability Factor 91.87%
Net Capacity Factor (NCF) 70.00%
Combined Cycle Standard - 2
Turbines, Duct Firing
Do Not Enter Choices In Cells Below Shaded In Green. Use Cells On
Input-Output Worksheet To Enter Cases & Scenarios.
Fuel Use
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Cost of Generation Results
Annual Average Heat Rate (HHV)Adjusted for Capacity Factor 7,050 Btu/kWh
Adjusted Net Of Startup 7,039 Btu/kWh
Annual Heat Rate Degradation 0.24%
Fuel Consumption/Hour 3,871 MMBtu/HrStart Up Fuel Use 1,540 MMBtu/StartAverage Annual Fuel Use 23,776,830 MMBtu
Key InputsPlant Type AssumptionsFinancial AssumptionsGeneral Assumptions
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Cost of Generation Results
All Costs Are In Base Year Dollars
Base Year For Cost Data
Results SummaryFixed Costs
Variable Costs
Energy Costs (Incl . in Var. Costs)
Total Levelized Costs ($/MWh)
Capital Costs $/kW
Instant Cost (2009 Dollars)
Installed Cost (2009 Dollars)
Equity
DebtDiscount Rate (WACC)
Average
Annual
Energy
(GWh) Inflation Rate From Base Yr. To Start Yr.
3321.45 Inflation Rate From Start Year ForwardDebt Coverage Ratio - Minimum
3225.13 Debt Coverage Ratio - AverageLoan/Debt Term (Years)
3209.00 Equipment Life (Years):
Economic/Book Life (Years)
3141.93 Federal Tax Life (Years)State Tax Life (Years)
3141.93
Tax Information
Federal Tax =
CA State Tax =Total Tax Rate =
CA Avg. Ad Valorem Tax =Municipal in-lieu payment of property taxes
CA Sales Tax =
Tax & Production IncentivesEligible For BEITC
ITC Expiration
Eligible For Geothermal Depletion Allowance
Eligible For REPTC
PTC Expiration
Eligible For REPI
Efficiency REPI Expiration
Financial Information
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Cost of Generation Results
Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC)
48.4% BETC Limit ($)48.5% BETC Depreciation Adjustment
BETC Limit (% Of Remaining Taxes) BETC Calculation
Geothermal Depletion Allowance Percentage Depletion Limit (% Of Remaining Taxes)
Renewable Energy Production Tax Credit (REPTC) Duration REPTC Base Year REPTC In Start Year $/kWh
REPI Tier REPI Tier I Proportion Paid REPI Tier II Proportion Paid REPI Duration
REPI Base Year REPI In Start Year $/kWh
California Property Tax Solar CreditCalifornia Solar Initiative $/kWh CSI Duration (years)
Solar installed capacity forecast at time of constructionCalifornia Self-Generation Incentive Program
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Cost of Generation Results
2009
$45.32
$76.85
$67.45
$122.17
$1,078
$1,256
Capital Structure Cost of Capital
60.0% 14.47%
40.0% 7.49%10.46% 8.76%
1.76%
1.56%1.51.81220 12/31/2028
20
2020
35.0%
8.84%40.7%
1.10%Y
7.94%
Y
N
Y
N
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Cost of Generation Results
N
100%$0
N
N
0.000
19%18%
0.000
50 MW/kW
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Cost of Gener
Instant Capital Costs ($) Capital Constru
Financial Transaction Costs 0.0% Escalation in Capital Costs
Component Cost AFUDC Rate
Total Overnight Cost $561,550,000 Co
2004 (-5)2005 (-4)
2006 (-3)
2007 (-2)$0 2008 (-1)
2009 (0)
Total Component Cost $561,550,000 $584,948
Land Costs INPUT OVERRIDE
Acreage/MW Installed Cost (2009 Dollars)Acreage/Plant 25.00 Instant Cost (2009 Dollars)Additional Occupied Acreage Installed Cost (2009 Dollars)
Total Acres 25 Instant Cost (2009 Dollars)Cost Per Acre Installed Cost (2009 Dollars)
Acquisition Cost $0
Land Prep Costs/Acre Source Color Coding
Total Land Prep Costs $0 Plant Type Assumptions
Total Land Costs $0 Financial Assumptions
Development Costs General Assumptions Predevelopment Expenses Overhaul Calcs
Construction Insurance & Installation
Commitment Fee All Costs Are In Base
Total Development Costs $0 Unless otherwise note
Permitting Costs Base Year For Cost Da Local Building Permits
Environmental Permits $5,500,000 Study Perspective = To Emission Reduction Credits Costs $25,769,895
Total Permitting Costs $31,269,895
Interconnection Costs (Linears)
All connection costs
Transmission interconnection
Fuel / water / sewer costsTotal Interconnection Costs $0
Air Emission Controls Installation Costs $0
Total Air Emission Controls Costs $0
Water Treatment & Cooling Controls
Installation Costs $0Total Water Treatment & Cooling Controls Costs $0Total Environmental Controls Costs $0
Total Component Cost $561,550,000
INPUT OVERRIDE CAPITAL COST - InstantDEFAULT TOTAL CAPITAL COST - Instant $592,819,895
Environmental Impacts/Discharges
Air Emissions (Lbs/MWh) Tons/Yr $NOx 0.0760 122.55
VOC/ROG 0.3150 507.96
CO 0 0180 29 03
Emissions Fixe
Year
Capital Costs (N
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Cost of Genera
CO2 825.3750 1,330,970H2S 0.00
CH4NH3
SOx 0.009 14.51PM10 0.0420 67.73Air Emission Costs
Water Discharges[List of Pollutants]
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Cost of Gene
Maintenance Cost Detail Envi
Hours/Year Wages ROUTINE MAINTENANCE Medi
$164,282 Consumable Maintenance Costs Air E
2,080 $34.95 Period Or Units For Consumable Maintenance Costs Year Capit
2,080 $37.86 Oil Consumption Per Period (Gal) Con2,080 $29.28 Oil Price ($/Gal) Inst
2,080 $26.91 Oil Cost $0.00 AnnuConsumables Per Period (Filters Etc.) ($) Rep
Consumables Cost $0 Com
Consumable Maintenance Labor Per Period (Hrs) CalConsumable Maintenance Labor $0 Ann
Ann
Total Consumable Maintenance Cost Per Period (Incl. Labor) $1,146,178.11 Tota
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Cost of Generat
Forced Outage Hours/Year 141 Hrs Of Labor 0 Parts CostsTotal Unscheduled Maintenance Costs $0
Total Annual Maintenance $8,667,076 $/kW-yr $15.76
$/MWh $2.76
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1.763% Historical Inflation to escalate capital costs from Base Year to Start Year
1.562% Forward Looking Inflation for Annual Operating Costs
5/30/2006 GDP IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR
Updated by J Klein 2/25/09 based on Provided by Chris Kavalec on December 12, 2008 to
Year Annual
Cumulative Average Cumulative Average
2002 1.68% 0.827 2.76% 0.83 2.77%
2003 1.86% 0.841 2.94% 0.84 2.92%
2004 2.73% 0.856 3.15% 0.86 2.96%
2005 2.81% 0.880 3.26% 0.89 2.99%
2006 2.80% 0.904 3.41% 0.91 3.06%
2007 2.53% 0.930 3.71% 0.94 3.32%
2008 4.90% 0.953 4.90% 0.98 1.76%
2009 1.76% 1.000 1.76% 1.00 1.76%
2010 1.49% 1.015 1.49% 1.015 1.49%
2011 1.61% 1.031 1.55% 1.03 1.55%
2012 1.52% 1.047 1.54% 1.05 1.54%2013 1.60% 1.064 1.55% 1.06 1.55%
2014 1.55% 1.080 1.55% 1.08 1.55%
2015 1.60% 1.097 1.56% 1.10 1.56%
2016 1.62% 1.115 1.57% 1.12 1.57%
2017 1.61% 1.133 1.57% 1.13 1.57%
2018 1.61% 1.151 1.58% 1.15 1.58%
2019 1.59% 1.170 1.58% 1.17 1.58%
2020 1.58% 1.188 1.58% 1.19 1.58%
2021 1.59% 1.207 1.58% 1.21 1.58%2022 1.58% 1.226 1.58% 1.23 1.58%2023 1.57% 1.245 1.58% 1.25 1.58%
2024 1.57% 1.265 1.58% 1.26 1.58%2025 1.54% 1.284 1.58% 1.28 1.58%2026 1.53% 1.304 1.57% 1.30 1.57%2027 1.51% 1.324 1.57% 1.32 1.57%2028 1.49% 1.343 1.57% 1.34 1.57%2029 1.49% 1.363 1.56% 1.36 1.56%2030 1.47% 1.383 1.56% 1.38 1.56%2031 1.47% 1.404 1.55% 1.40 1.55%2032 1.47% 1.424 1.55% 1.42 1.55%
2033 1.47% 1.445 1.55% 1.45 1.55%2034 1.47% 1.467 1.54% 1.47 1.54%2035 1.47% 1.488 1.54% 1.49 1.54%
2036 1.47% 1.510 1.54% 1.51 1.54%2037 1.47% 1.532 1.54% 1.53 1.54%2038 1.47% 1.555 1.53% 1.55 1.53%2039 1.47% 1.578 1.53% 1.58 1.53%2040 1.47% 1.601 1.53% 1.60 1.53%2041 1.47% 1.624 1.53% 1.62 1.53%
2042 1.47% 1.648 1.53% 1.65 1.53%2043 1.47% 1.673 1.52% 1.67 1.52%2044 1.47% 1.697 1.52% 1.70 1.52%
From Start Year (2009)From Base Year (2009)
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2045 1.47% 1.722 1.52% 1.72 1.52%2046 1.47% 1.747 1.52% 1.75 1.52%
From: Lynn Marshall of CEC Demand Analysis OfficeYellow values are extrapolated by J Klein 6/11/06
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Ruben Tavares
Source Data My Calcs 2-9-2010
2009$=11980 45.75 0.4291981 47.26 0.443 3.29%
1982 47.28 0.443 0.05%
1983 49.17 0.461 3.98%1984 53.62 0.502 9.06%1985 56.70 0.531 5.75%1986 58.97 0.552 4.00%1987 62.55 0.586 6.06%1988 66.22 0.620 5.87%1989 69.05 0.647 4.28%1990 71.29 0.668 3.24%1991 73.88 0.692 3.63%
1992 75.65 0.709 2.40%1993 77.73 0.728 2.74%1994 79.49 0.745 2.27%
1995 80.89 0.758 1.76%1996 82.25 0.770 1.68%1997 83.45 0.782 1.46%1998 83.68 0.784 0.28%1999 84.29 0.790 0.73%2000 85.44 0.800 1.36%2001 86.73 0.812 1.51%2002 88.18 0.826 1.68%2003 89.82 0.841 1.86%
2004 92.28 0.864 2.73%2005 94.87 0.889 2.81%2006 97.53 0.914 2.80%
2007 100.00 0.937 2.53%2008 104.90 0.983 4.90%2009 106.75 1.000 1.76%2010 108.34 1.015 1.49%2011 110.08 1.031 1.61%2012 111.76 1.047 1.52%
2013 113.54 1.064 1.60%2014 115.30 1.080 1.55%2015 117.14 1.097 1.60%
CA GSP Index
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2016 119.04 1.115 1.62%2017 120.96 1.133 1.61%
2018 122.90 1.151 1.61%2019 124.86 1.170 1.59%2020 126.83 1.188 1.58%2021 128.85 1.207 1.59%
2022 130.88 1.226 1.58%2023 132.93 1.245 1.57%2024 135.02 1.265 1.57%
2025 137.10 1.284 1.54%2026 139.20 1.304 1.53%2027 141.29 1.324 1.51%2028 143.41 1.343 1.49%2029 145.54 1.363 1.49%2030 147.68 1.383 1.47%
Source: Moody's Economy.com11/17/2008
Provided by Chris Kavalec on December 12, 2008 to Ruben Tavares
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GDPDeflator Fuel Price GHG Price
$/Mmbtu $/CO2e ton Preliminary 2009 IEPR (F
2009 1.76% $6.56 $0.00Inflation
Rate PG&E SCE SDG&E
2010 1.49% $6.97 $0.00 2002 1.7%2011 1.61% $7.29 $0.00 2003 1.9%2012 1.52% $7.87 $0.00 2004 2.7%2013 1.60% $8.28 $0.00 2005 2.8%2014 1.55% $8.74 $0.00 2006 2.8% 6.58 6.58 6.582015 1.60% $9.01 $0.00 2007 2.5% 5.92 5.92 5.922016 1.62% $9.68 $0.00 2008 4.9% 6.51 6.51 6.51
2017 1.61% $10.20 $0.00 2009 1.8% 6.44 6.57 6.352018 1.61% $10.91 $0.00 2010 1.5% 7.01 6.88 6.622019 1.59% $11.78 $0.00 2011 1.6% 7.28 7.26 7.00
2020 1.58% $12.23 $0.00 2012 1.5% 7.92 7.77 7.502021 1.59% $12.66 $0.00 2013 1.6% 8.33 8.20 7.902022 1.58% $13.64 $0.00 2014 1.5% 8.79 8.66 8.352023 1.57% $14.16 $0.00 2015 1.6% 9.15 8.88 8.462024 1.57% $14.77 $0.00 2016 1.6% 9.75 9.64 9.032025 1.54% $14.73 $0.00 2017 1.6% 10.35 10.08 9.622026 1.53% $15.35 $0.00 2018 1.6% 11.09 10.77 10.262027 1.51% $15.75 $0.00 2019 1.6% 12.02 11.60 11.02
2028 1.49% $16.15 $0.00 2020 1.6% 12.46 12.06 11.462029 1.49% $16.80 $0.00 2021 1.6% 12.85 12.52 11.902030 1.47% $17.46 $0.00 2022 1.6% 13.81 13.52 12.862031 1.47% $18.08 $0.00 2023 1.6% 14.35 14.02 13.34
2032 1.47% $18.73 $0.00 2024 1.6% 14.95 14.64 13.952033 1.47% $19.33 $0.00 2025 1.5% 14.90 14.59 13.902034 1.47% $19.95 $0.00 2026 1.5% 15.51 15.22 14.512035 1.47% $20.57 $0.00 2027 1.5% 15.92 15.62 14.882036 1.47% $21.27 $0.00 2028 1.5% 16.34 16.02 15.242037 1.47% $21.98 $0.00 2029 1.5% 16.98 16.66 15.862038 1.47% $22.72 $0.00 2030 1.5% 17.64 17.32 16.50
2039 1.47% $23.50 $0.00 2031 1.5% 18.25 17.95 17.102040 1.47% $24.30 $0.00 2032 1.5% 18.90 18.60 17.722041 1.47% $25.12 $0.00 2033 1.5% 19.50 19.21 18.302042 1.47% $25.96 $0.00 2034 1.5% 20.12 19.83 18.892043 1.47% $26.82 $0.00 2035 1.5% 20.73 20.45 19.482044 1.47% $27.72 $0.00 2036 1.5% 21.43 21.15 20.15
2045 1.47% $28.65 $0.00 2037 1.5% 22.13 21.86 20.832046 1.47% $29.61 $0.00 2038 1.5% 22.87 22.60 21.542047 1.47% $30.61 $0.00 2039 1.5% 23.65 23.39 22.29
2048 1.47% $31.64 $0.00 2040 1.5% 24.44 24.20 23.062049 1.47% $32.70 $0.00 2041 1.5% 25.25 25.02 23.842050 1.47% $33.80 $0.00 2042 1.5% 26.09 25.86 24.652051 1.47% $34.93 $0.00 2043 1.5% 26.94 26.73 25.482052 1.47% $36.10 $0.00 2044 1.5% 27.83 27.63 26.34
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2053 1.47% $37.31 $0.00 2045 1.5% 28.75 28.56 27.23
2054 1.47% $38.57 $0.00 2046 1.5% 29.70 29.53 28.16
2055 $39.86 $0.00 2047 1.5% 30.69 30.54 29.122056 $41.20 $0.00 2048 1.5% 31.71 31.57 30.112057 $42.58 $0.00 2049 1.5% 32.76 32.65 31.132058 $44.01 $0.00 2050 1.5% 33.85 33.75 32.19
2059 $45.49 $0.00 2051 1.5% 34.97 34.90 33.282060 $47.02 $0.00 2052 1.5% 36.12 36.08 34.41
2061 $48.59 $0.00 2053 1.5% 37.32 37.30 35.582062 $50.22 $0.00 2054 1.5% 38.55 38.56 36.782063 $51.91 $0.00 2055 1.5% 39.83 39.87 38.032064 $53.65 $0.00 2056 1.5% 41.15 41.22 39.33
2057 1.5% 42.52 42.62 40.662058 1.5% 43.92 44.06 42.042059 1.5% 45.38 45.56 43.472060 1.5% 46.88 47.10 44.952061 1.5% 48.43 48.70 46.47
2062 1.5% 50.04 50.35 48.05
2063 1.5% 51.70 52.05 49.68Fuel Price Multiplier 1 2064 1.5% 53.41 53.82 51.372065 1.5% 55.18 55.64 53.112066 1.5% 57.01 57.53 54.922067 1.5% 58.89 59.48 56.782068 1.5% 60.85 61.49 58.712069 1.5% 62.86 63.58 60.702070 1.5% 64.94 65.73 62.762071 1.5% 67.10 67.96 64.892072 1.5% 69.32 70.26 67.10
2073 1.5% 71.61 72.64 69.382074 1.5% 73.99 75.10 71.732075 1.5% 76.44 77.65 74.17
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inal 2007 IEPR) Gas Prices_2-25-09
SMUD LADWP IID CA AverageMid-rangeCA Avg.
High CAAverage
Low CAAverage Uranium
Mid-rangeUranium
6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58 6.58 8.96 5.41 0.54 0.545.92 5.92 5.92 5.92 5.92 8.00 4.80 0.63 0.636.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 6.51 8.74 5.22 0.75 0.75
6.52 6.80 6.80 6.56 6.56 9.13 4.74 0.63 0.637.13 7.06 7.06 6.97 6.97 9.86 4.74 0.65 0.657.35 7.44 7.44 7.29 7.29 10.45 4.75 0.68 0.68
8.09 7.97 7.97 7.87 7.87 11.39 4.95 0.72 0.728.48 8.38 8.38 8.28 8.28 12.10 5.06 0.75 0.758.93 8.86 8.86 8.74 8.74 12.88 5.21 0.79 0.799.32 9.03 9.03 9.01 9.01 13.36 5.26 0.82 0.829.82 9.78 9.78 9.68 9.68 14.44 5.55 0.85 0.85
10.44 10.30 10.30 10.20 10.20 15.32 5.76 0.88 0.8811.21 10.99 10.99 10.91 10.91 16.47 6.07 0.91 0.9112.18 11.82 11.82 11.78 11.78 17.86 6.46 0.94 0.94
12.61 12.29 12.29 12.23 12.23 18.63 6.63 0.97 0.9712.96 12.76 12.76 12.66 12.66 19.37 6.79 1.00 1.0013.91 13.76 13.76 13.64 13.64 20.95 7.24 1.02 1.0214.46 14.25 14.25 14.16 14.16 21.82 7.44 1.05 1.05
15.06 14.89 14.89 14.77 14.77 22.86 7.70 1.07 1.0715.01 14.84 14.84 14.73 14.73 22.86 7.61 1.10 1.1015.61 15.48 15.48 15.35 15.35 23.90 7.87 1.12 1.1216.03 15.88 15.88 15.75 15.75 24.60 8.01 1.15 1.1516.45 16.29 16.29 16.15 16.15 25.31 8.16 1.17 1.1717.09 16.94 16.94 16.80 16.80 26.39 8.43 1.20 1.2017.75 17.61 17.61 17.46 17.46 27.50 8.71 1.22 1.22
18.36 18.25 18.25 18.08 18.08 28.58 8.94 1.25 1.2519.01 18.91 18.91 18.73 18.73 29.69 9.19 1.28 1.2819.61 19.52 19.52 19.33 19.33 30.75 9.41 1.31 1.3120.23 20.15 20.15 19.95 19.95 31.84 9.64 1.34 1.3420.84 20.78 20.78 20.57 20.57 32.93 9.86 1.37 1.3721.53 21.49 21.49 21.27 21.27 34.15 10.12 1.40 1.40
22.24 22.21 22.21 21.98 21.98 35.39 10.38 1.43 1.4322.98 22.96 22.96 22.72 22.72 36.70 10.65 1.47 1.4723.76 23.76 23.76 23.50 23.50 38.08 10.94 1.50 1.50
24.55 24.58 24.58 24.30 24.30 39.50 11.23 1.53 1.5325.36 25.41 25.41 25.12 25.12 40.95 11.52 1.57 1.5726.19 26.26 26.26 25.96 25.96 42.46 11.81 1.61 1.6127.05 27.14 27.14 26.82 26.82 44.00 12.11 1.64 1.6427.93 28.05 28.05 27.72 27.72 45.61 12.42 1.68 1.68
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28.85 29.00 29.00 28.65 28.65 47.28 12.74 1.72 1.72
29.80 29.98 29.98 29.61 29.61 49.03 13.07 1.76 1.76
30.78 30.99 30.99 30.61 30.61 50.83 13.41 1.80 1.8031.80 32.04 32.04 31.64 31.64 52.70 13.75 1.84 1.8432.85 33.13 33.13 32.70 32.70 54.64 14.11 1.88 1.8833.93 34.25 34.25 33.80 33.80 56.65 14.47 1.92 1.92
35.05 35.40 35.40 34.93 34.93 58.74 14.85 1.96 1.9636.20 36.60 36.60 36.10 36.10 60.89 15.23 2.01 2.01
37.39 37.83 37.83 37.31 37.31 63.13 15.62 2.05 2.0538.63 39.11 39.11 38.57 38.57 65.45 16.02 2.10 2.1039.90 40.43 40.43 39.86 39.86 67.86 16.44 2.15 2.1541.21 41.80 41.80 41.20 41.20 70.35 16.86 2.20 2.2042.57 43.21 43.21 42.58 42.58 72.94 17.30 2.25 2.2543.97 44.67 44.67 44.01 44.01 75.62 17.74 2.30 2.3045.42 46.18 46.18 45.49 45.49 78.40 18.20 2.35 2.3546.92 47.74 47.74 47.02 47.02 81.28 18.67 2.40 2.4048.46 49.36 49.36 48.59 48.59 84.27 19.15 2.46 2.46
50.06 51.02 51.02 50.22 50.22 87.37 19.64 2.51 2.51
51.71 52.75 52.75 51.91 51.91 90.58 20.15 2.57 2.5753.41 54.53 54.53 53.65 53.65 93.91 20.67 2.63 2.6355.17 56.37 56.37 55.45 55.45 97.36 21.20 2.69 2.6956.99 58.28 58.28 57.32 57.32 100.94 21.75 2.75 2.7558.86 60.24 60.24 59.24 59.24 104.65 22.31 2.81 2.8160.80 62.28 62.28 61.23 61.23 108.50 22.89 2.88 2.8862.81 64.38 64.38 63.28 63.28 112.49 23.48 2.94 2.9464.88 66.56 66.56 65.41 65.41 116.62 24.08 3.01 3.0167.01 68.81 68.81 67.60 67.60 120.91 24.70 3.08 3.0869.22 71.13 71.13 69.87 69.87 125.35 25.34 3.15 3.15
71.50 73.54 73.54 72.22 72.22 129.96 25.99 3.22 3.2273.85 76.02 76.02 74.64 74.64 134.74 26.66 3.29 3.2976.29 78.59 78.59 77.15 77.15 139.69 27.35 3.36 3.36
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HighUranium
LowUranium
GassifiedCoal
Mid-Range
GassifiedCoal
High
GassifiedCoal
Low
GassifiedCoal Solar Steam
0.54 0.54 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.550.63 0.63 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.470.75 0.75 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
0.74 0.53 1.80 1.80 3.13 1.310.74 0.57 2.10 2.10 3.65 1.530.78 0.59 2.15 2.15 3.74 1.57
0.83 0.62 2.20 2.20 3.82 1.600.87 0.64 2.24 2.24 3.90 1.640.92 0.67 2.29 2.29 3.99 1.670.94 0.69 2.34 2.34 4.07 1.710.96 0.73 2.39 2.39 4.15 1.740.99 0.76 2.43 2.43 4.23 1.781.01 0.80 2.48 2.48 4.31 1.811.04 0.84 2.52 2.52 4.39 1.84
1.06 0.88 2.57 2.57 4.47 1.881.10 0.89 2.61 2.61 4.55 1.911.14 0.90 2.66 2.66 4.62 1.941.17 0.91 2.70 2.70 4.70 1.97
1.21 0.93 2.75 2.75 4.78 2.001.25 0.94 2.79 2.79 4.85 2.041.29 0.95 2.84 2.84 4.95 2.081.33 0.96 2.90 2.90 5.04 2.111.36 0.98 2.95 2.95 5.14 2.161.40 0.99 3.01 3.01 5.23 2.201.44 1.00 3.06 3.06 5.33 2.24
1.49 1.02 3.12 3.12 5.42 2.271.54 1.03 3.17 3.17 5.52 2.311.58 1.05 3.23 3.23 5.62 2.361.63 1.06 3.29 3.29 5.72 2.401.68 1.07 3.35 3.35 5.82 2.441.73 1.09 3.41 3.41 5.93 2.49
1.78 1.10 3.47 3.47 6.04 2.531.84 1.12 3.53 3.53 6.14 2.581.89 1.13 3.60 3.60 6.26 2.62
1.95 1.15 3.66 3.66 6.37 2.672.01 1.17 3.73 3.73 6.48 2.722.07 1.18 3.79 3.79 6.60 2.772.13 1.20 3.86 3.86 6.72 2.822.20 1.21 3.93 3.93 6.84 2.87
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2.26 1.23 4.00 4.00 6.96 2.92
2.33 1.25 4.08 4.08 7.09 2.97
2.40 1.27 4.15 4.15 7.22 3.032.47 1.28 4.22 4.22 7.35 3.082.55 1.30 4.30 4.30 7.48 3.142.63 1.32 4.38 4.38 7.62 3.20
2.71 1.34 4.46 4.46 7.75 3.252.79 1.35 4.54 4.54 7.90 3.31
2.87 1.37 4.62 4.62 8.04 3.372.96 1.39 4.70 4.70 8.18 3.433.05 1.41 4.79 4.79 8.33 3.503.14 1.43 4.87 4.87 8.48 3.563.24 1.45 4.96 4.96 8.63 3.623.33 1.47 5.05 5.05 8.79 3.693.43 1.49 5.14 5.14 8.95 3.753.54 1.51 5.24 5.24 9.11 3.823.65 1.53 5.33 5.33 9.28 3.89
3.76 1.55 5.43 5.43 9.44 3.96
3.87 1.57 5.53 5.53 9.61 4.033.99 1.59 5.63 5.63 9.79 4.114.11 1.62 5.73 5.73 9.97 4.184.23 1.64 5.83 5.83 10.15 4.264.36 1.66 5.94 5.94 10.33 4.334.49 1.68 6.04 6.04 10.52 4.414.63 1.71 6.15 6.15 10.71 4.494.77 1.73 6.26 6.26 10.90 4.574.91 1.75 6.38 6.38 11.10 4.665.06 1.78 6.49 6.49 11.30 4.74
5.21 1.80 6.61 6.61 11.50 4.835.37 1.83 6.73 6.73 11.71 4.915.53 1.85 6.85 6.85 11.92 5.00
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Hydro Tidal Wind Methane Manure BiomassBiomass
HighBiomass
High
$2.00 $2.00 $3.00$2.04 $2.04 $2.55$2.08 $2.08 $2.60
$2.12 $2.12 $2.65$2.16 $2.16 $2.70$2.20 $2.20 $2.75$2.24 $2.24 $2.80$2.28 $2.28 $2.85$2.33 $2.33 $2.91$2.37 $2.37 $2.96$2.41 $2.41 $3.02
$2.46 $2.46 $3.08$2.51 $2.51 $3.13$2.55 $2.55 $3.19$2.60 $2.60 $3.25
$2.65 $2.65 $3.32$2.70 $2.70 $3.38$2.75 $2.75 $3.44$2.81 $2.81 $3.51$2.86 $2.86 $3.58$2.91 $2.91 $3.64$2.97 $2.97 $3.71
$3.03 $3.03 $3.78$3.08 $3.08 $3.86$3.14 $3.14 $3.93$3.20 $3.20 $4.00$3.26 $3.26 $4.08$3.33 $3.33 $4.16
$3.39 $3.39 $4.24$3.45 $3.45 $4.32$3.52 $3.52 $4.40
$3.59 $3.59 $4.48$3.65 $3.65 $4.57$3.72 $3.72 $4.65$3.79 $3.79 $4.74$3.87 $3.87 $4.83
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$3.94 $3.94 $4.92
$4.01 $4.01 $5.02
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
GasPrices($/mm
Btu)
Preliminary 2007 IEPR Gas Prices
PG&E
SCE
SDG&E
SMUD
LADWP
IID
CA Average
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BiomassLow
No
CarbonPrice
Carbon
PriceLow
Carbon
PriceHigh
$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00$0.00 $5.00 $60.00
$1.75 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.53 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.56 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
$1.59 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.62 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.65 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.68 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.71 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.74 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.78 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.81 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
$1.85 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.88 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.92 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$1.95 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
$1.99 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.03 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.07 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.11 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.15 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.19 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.23 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
$2.27 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.31 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.36 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.40 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.45 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.49 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
$2.54 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.59 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.64 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
$2.69 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.74 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.79 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.85 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00$2.90 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
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$2.95 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
$3.01 $0.00 $5.00 $60.00
2036 2041
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2009 Dollars
PG&E SCE SDG&E SMUD LADWP IIDCA -Avg.
2002 0.832003 0.842004 0.862005 0.892006 0.91 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.202007 0.94 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.32 6.322008 0.98 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62
2009 1.00 6.44 6.57 6.35 6.52 6.80 6.80 6.562010 1.01 6.91 6.78 6.53 7.03 6.96 6.96 6.872011 1.03 7.06 7.04 6.78 7.13 7.22 7.22 7.07
2012 1.05 7.57 7.43 7.17 7.73 7.62 7.62 7.522013 1.06 7.83 7.71 7.43 7.97 7.88 7.88 7.792014 1.08 8.14 8.02 7.73 8.27 8.20 8.20 8.102015 1.10 8.34 8.09 7.71 8.50 8.23 8.23 8.212016 1.12 8.74 8.64 8.10 8.81 8.77 8.77 8.682017 1.13 9.13 8.90 8.49 9.22 9.09 9.09 9.012018 1.15 9.63 9.35 8.91 9.74 9.55 9.55 9.482019 1.17 10.28 9.91 9.42 10.41 10.10 10.10 10.07
2020 1.19 10.48 10.15 9.64 10.61 10.34 10.34 10.292021 1.21 10.64 10.37 9.86 10.74 10.57 10.57 10.492022 1.23 11.26 11.03 10.49 11.35 11.22 11.22 11.132023 1.25 11.52 11.26 10.72 11.62 11.45 11.45 11.37
2024 1.26 11.82 11.58 11.03 11.91 11.77 11.77 11.682025 1.28 11.61 11.36 10.83 11.69 11.56 11.56 11.472026 1.30 11.89 11.67 11.13 11.97 11.88 11.88 11.772027 1.32 12.03 11.80 11.24 12.11 12.00 12.00 11.902028 1.34 12.16 11.93 11.35 12.24 12.12 12.12 12.022029 1.36 12.45 12.22 11.63 12.54 12.43 12.43 12.322030 1.38 12.75 12.52 11.92 12.83 12.73 12.73 12.62
2031 1.40 13.00 12.79 12.18 13.08 13.00 13.00 12.882032 1.42 13.27 13.06 12.44 13.34 13.27 13.27 13.152033 1.45 13.49 13.29 12.66 13.57 13.51 13.51 13.382034 1.47 13.72 13.52 12.88 13.79 13.74 13.74 13.602035 1.49 13.93 13.74 13.09 14.00 13.96 13.96 13.822036 1.51 14.19 14.01 13.34 14.26 14.23 14.23 14.08
2037 1.53 14.44 14.27 13.59 14.51 14.49 14.49 14.342038 1.55 14.71 14.54 13.85 14.78 14.77 14.77 14.612039 1.58 14.99 14.83 14.13 15.06 15.06 15.06 14.90
2040 1.60 15.27 15.11 14.40 15.34 15.35 15.35 15.182041 1.62 15.55 15.40 14.68 15.61 15.64 15.64 15.462042 1.65 15.83 15.69 14.96 15.89 15.93 15.93 15.752043 1.67 16.11 15.98 15.23 16.17 16.23 16.23 16.042044 1.70 16.40 16.28 15.52 16.46 16.53 16.53 16.33
Natural Gas Utility Service Area - Constant
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2045 1.72 16.69 16.59 15.81 16.75 16.84 16.84 16.63
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7/27/2019 CEC COG Model Version 2.02-4!5!10
45/731
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46/731
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7/27/2019 CEC COG Model Version 2.02-4!5!10
47/731
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48/731
Levelized 2009 NPV
Total Levelized Cash Flow Income $/kW-Yr $727.67 $6,007Generation GWh 3,321.572 27,418.7
Capacity Contract Price $/MWh $42.92 $354
Tolled Fuel Price $/MWh $77.89 $643Revenue $MM $400.22 $3,304Revenue $/kW-Yr $727.67 $6,007
Fixed O&M Costs $/kW-Yr $9.52 $79BOE Property Tax Depreciation Factor
Ad Valorem $/kW-Yr $11.36 $94Insurance $/kW-Yr $8.35 $69
Fixed Operating Expense $29.23 $241
Fuel Price $/MMBtu
Fuel Price Truncated $/MMBtu $9.67 $80
Fuel Use MMBtu 23,776,830 196,271,637Fuel Costs $/kW-Yr $418.13 $3,452GHG Emission Permit Price $/CO2e ton
GHG Emission Rate CO2e lbs/MWH
GHG Emission Permit Costs $/kW-Yr Var O&M Costs $/kW-Yr $20.88 $172
Variable Operating Expense $/kW-Yr $439.01 $3,624Transmission Service $/kW-Yr $29.74 $245
Total Operating Expense $/kW-Yr $497.98 $4,111Net Operating Income $/kW-Yr $229.69 $1,896
Book Depreciation
Principal $/kW-Yr $31.06 $256Interest $/kW-Yr $21.37 $176
Debt Payment $/kW-Yr $52.42 $433Debt Coverage Ratio
Spark Spread Btu/KWh
Spark Spread $MM $18,604.41 $153,575Assessed ValueAccumulated Depreciation $464.38 $3,833
Levelized Cashflow CalculationBefore Tax Income $/kW-Yr $229.69 $1,896
Computed State Taxes $/kW-Yr $12.35 $102 Tax Loss Carryforward
State Taxes $/kW-Yr $12.35 $102Sales Taxes $/kW $10.94 $90
CSI $/kW-Yr SGIP $/kW
Computed Federal Taxes $/kW-Yr $44.50 $367 Tax Loss Carryforward
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Federal Taxes $/kW-Yr $44.50 $367
Tax Production Deduction Rate 50% of W-2 Wages
TDMA $/kW-Yr $0.19 $2Geothermal Depletion Allowance (GDA) $/kW-YrBEITC (Tax Credit) $/kW
REPTC (Tax Credit) $/kW-Yr REPTC (Tax Credit) PTC
REPI $/kW-YrTotal Taxes Net Credits & Incentives $/kW-Yr $56.84 $469
Net (After-Tax) Income $/kW-Yr $172.85 $1,427Net(After-Tax) Equity Income $753.76 -$753.76Equity Return on Investment $116.89 14.47%
$724.14Book Depreciation Rate 100.00%
Book Depreciation $62.81 $519
Fed Tax Depreciation Rate 100.00%
Fed Tax Depreciation $68.65 $567
State Tax Depreciation Rate 100.00%
State Tax Depreciation $68.67 $567
Fixed Debt (Principal) $/kW-Yr $31.06 $256Variable O&M $/MWh $3.46 $29Transmission Service $/MWh $4.93 $41(Initial calculations for tax credits only to avoid circular reference)
Tax On Return On Equity (for ITC & GDA) $74.99 $619
Difference Level ROE vs. Cash Flow -$14.41 -$119
Capital & Financing - Construction $/kW-Yr $172.85 $1,427Insurance $/kW-Yr $8.35
a orem - r .xe - r .Fuel & GHG Emissions Costs $/kW-Yr $418.13Variable O&M $/kW-Yr $20.88Transmission $/kW-Yr $29.74Corporate Taxes (W/Credits) $/kW-Yr $56.84
Levelized Revenue RequirementsFixed $/MWh $45.32 $374Variable $/MWh $81.75 $675Total $/MWh $127.08 $1,049
EBDITA $694.07 $5,729
YearsMACRS Tax Tables 3 100.00%
(Fiscal year convention) 5 100.00%7 100.00%
10 100.00%
15 100.00%20 100.00%
YearsMACRS Tax Tables 100.00% 3
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(Mid-year convention) 5
7101520
TDMA Deduction Rate Schedule
State Tax Depreciation 150% Decl. Bal.
BOE Condition Percent Good Factor 10- 2006 (R-3 Survivor Curve) 15
20304050
Contract Price Escalation
FLAGS: LOOK FOR RED
BALANCING CHECKS: Look for "Error" in Col C
Confirm
BothRevenues OK $727.67minus Fixed O&M Costs $9.52
minus Property Taxes $11.36
minus Insurance $8.35minus Fuel $418.13
minus Variable O&M Costs $50.62
Equals Operating Income $229.69Fed State
Operating Income $229.69 $229.69 minus Interest Expense $21.37 $21.37 minus Depreciation $68.65 $68.67 minus Other Deductions $0.19
minus State Taxes $12.35
Equals Taxable Income $127.14 $139.66
Both
Operating Income $229.69 Minus Interest Expense $21.37 Minus Principal Repayments $31.06 Minus (state taxes + federal taxes) $56.84
Equals After tax cash flow (ROE) OK $120.42
Magnitude of Error if there is one:$14.41
Straight Line
Combined Cycle Standard - 2
Turbines, Duct Firing
Checking Al
Levelized $/kW-Yr
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Uses What If: Data Table function Cash Flow OutputTarget: Net NPV(Invest - Return)
Initial Year Contract Price
Target: Net NPV(Invest - Return)Initial Yr Contract $/MWH 40% $50
41% $5142% $5344% $54
45% $5646% $5747% $5948% $6049% $6251% $6352% $6553% $6654% $68
55% $6956% $7158% $7259% $7360% $7561% $7662% $7864% $7965% $8166% $82
67% $8468% $85
69% $8771% $8872% $9073% $9174% $9375% $9476% $9578% $9779% $9880% $100
81% $10182% $10384% $10485% $10686% $10787% $10988% $11089% $11291% $11392% $115
93% $11694% $11895% $119
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96% $120
98% $122100% $125
Revenue change/($/MWH)
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1 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$566.03 $587.30 $605.44 $634.30 $656.35 $680.523,372.600 3,364.525 3,356.470 3,348.433 3,340.416 3,332.419
38.72 39.30 39.93 40.53 41.18 41.8253.59 56.71 59.28 63.65 66.89 70.50
$311.31 $323.01 $332.99 $348.87 $361.00 $374.29566.03$ 587.30$ 605.44$ 634.30$ 656.35$ 680.52$
8.30 8.48 8.65 8.83 9.01 9.2097% 94% 91% 87% 84% 80%
13.38 13.23 13.06 12.74 12.54 12.187.54 7.66 7.77 7.90 8.02 8.14
$29.22 $29.36 $29.49 $29.46 $29.57 $29.53
$6.56 $6.97 $7.29 $7.87 $8.28 $8.74
$6.56 $6.97 $7.29 $7.87 $8.28 $8.74
23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830$283.71 $301.21 $315.24 $340.14 $357.99 $378.02
825 827 829 831 833 835
$18.52 $18.86 $19.20 $19.55 $19.91 $20.27
$302.23 $320.07 $334.44 $359.69 $377.90 $398.2926.368 26.849 27.339 27.838 28.346 28.863
357.82 376.27 391.27 416.99 435.82 456.68$208.20 $211.02 $214.18 $217.31 $220.54 $223.84
$27.29 $29.33 $31.53 $33.89 $36.43 $39.16$37.65 $35.61 $33.41 $31.05 $28.51 $25.78
64.94 64.94 64.94 64.94 64.94 64.943.21 3.25 3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45
7,015 6,712 6,521 6,141 5,932 5,710
$23,659 $22,583 $21,888 $20,563 $19,817 $19,027$1,256 $1,193 $1,131 $1,068 $1,005 $942
$63 $126 $188 $251 $314 $377
$208.20 $211.02 $214.18 $217.31 $220.54 $223.84
$6.75 $7.80 $8.85 $9.87 $10.88 $11.87
$6.75 $7.80 $8.85 $9.87 $10.88 $11.87$99.75
$24.31 $28.14 $31.89 $35.57 $39.20 $42.77
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$24.31 $28.14 $31.89 $35.57 $39.20 $42.77
6% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%$1,066,138 $1,088,203 $1,110,725 $1,133,713 $1,157,177 $1,181,126
0.12 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19
$31.06 $35.94 $40.74 $45.45 $50.07 $54.64
177.15 175.08 173.44 171.87 170.46 169.20112.21 110.14 108.50 106.93 105.53 104.26
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
63 63 63 63 63 63
7.50% 6.93% 6.42% 5.94% 5.49% 5.08%
94 87 81 75 69 64
7.50% 6.94% 6.42% 5.94% 5.49% 5.08%
94 87 81 75 69 64
27.29 29.33 31.53 33.89 36.43 39.163.02 3.08 3.15 3.21 3.28 3.35 4.30 4.39 4.48 4.57 4.67 4.76
74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99
58.28 52.56 46.14 39.59 32.75 25.68
$177.15 $175.08 $173.44 $171.87 $170.46 $169.20$7.54 $7.66 $7.77 $7.90 $8.02 $8.14
. . . . . .. . . . . .$283.71 $301.21 $315.24 $340.14 $357.99 $378.02
$18.52 $18.86 $19.20 $19.55 $19.91 $20.27$26.37 $26.85 $27.34 $27.84 $28.35 $28.86$31.06 $35.94 $40.74 $45.45 $50.07 $54.64
$41.56 $42.08 $42.65 $43.20 $43.78 $44.35$54.78 $60.73 $63.33 $67.84 $71.11 $74.77$96.34 $102.81 $105.98 $111.04 $114.90 $119.13
271 337 403 469 535 601
66.66% 22.23% 11.12%40.00% 24.00% 14.40% 10.53% 11.07%28.56% 20.41% 14.58% 10.41% 8.51% 8.77%20.00% 16.00% 12.80% 10.24% 8.19% 6.56%
10.00% 9.01% 8.10% 7.29% 6.56% 5.91%7.50% 6.93% 6.42% 5.94% 5.49% 5.08%
1 2 3 4 5 633.33% 44.45% 14.81% 7.41%
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20.00% 32.00% 19.20% 11.52% 11.52% 5.76%
14.29% 24.49% 17.49% 12.49% 8.93% 8.92%10.00% 18.00% 14.40% 11.52% 9.22% 7.37%5.00% 9.50% 8.55% 7.70% 6.93% 6.23%3.75% 7.22% 6.68% 6.18% 5.71% 5.29%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3% 6% 6% 6% 9% 9%
7.50% 6.94% 6.42% 5.94% 5.49% 5.08%5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
1 2 3 4 5 60.92 0.83 0.75 0.66 0.57 0.490.95 0.91 0.86 0.80 0.75 0.700.97 0.94 0.91 0.87 0.84 0.80
0.99 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.910.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.951.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97
1.76% 1.49% 1.61% 1.52% 1.60% 1.55%
Confirm
Both Both$124.86 Revenues Error $713.26$1.67 minus Fixed O&M Costs $9.52$1.99 minus Property Taxes $11.36$1.46 minus Insurance $8.35
$73.19 minus Fuel $418.13$8.86 minus Variable O&M Costs $50.62
$37.68 Equals Operating Income $215.28Fed State Fed
$37.68 $37.68 Operating Income $215.28$3.74 $3.74 minus Interest Expense $21.37
$12.02 $12.02 minus Depreciation $68.65 minus Other Deductions $0.19
$1.94 minus State Taxes $11.07
$19.96 $21.925 Equals Taxable Income $114.00
Both Both
$37.68 Operating Income $215.28$3.74 Minus Interest Expense $21.37$5.44 Minus Principal Repayments $31.06
$124.86 Minus (state taxes + federal taxes) Error $50.97
$19.59 Equals After tax cash flow (ROE) Error $111.88
($8.54)
Checking Alg
Levelized
orithm
Levelized $/MWh
Combined
Cycle
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7/27/2019 CEC COG Model Version 2.02-4!5!10
56/731
Installed $/kW NPV Equity Return$754 -$754
$92.31 $92.31
$1,069 1$1,032 2
$995 3$958 4
$921 5$884 6$847 7$810 8$772 9$735 10$698 11$661 12$624 13
$587 14$550 15$513 16$476 17$439 18$402 19$365 20$328 21$291 22$254 23
$216 24$179 25
$142 26$105 27
$68 28$31 29-$6 30 $92.31
-$43 31-$80 32
-$117 33-$154 34-$191 35
-$228 36-$265 37-$302 38-$339 39-$377 40-$414 41-$451 42-$488 43-$525 44-$562 45
-$599 46-$636 47-$673 48
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57/731
-$710 49
-$747 50-$821 51
-$25.23
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1 1 1 1 1 1 1
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$696.16 $729.69 $756.89 $792.12 $834.00 $858.18 $881.553,324.440 3,316.480 3,308.540 3,300.618 3,292.716 3,284.832 3,276.968
42.49 43.17 43.87 44.58 45.29 46.00 46.7372.69 77.84 81.95 87.42 94.02 97.69 101.22
$382.89 $401.33 $416.29 $435.66 $458.70 $472.00 $484.85696.16$ 729.69$ 756.89$ 792.12$ 834.00$ 858.18$ 881.55$
9.39 9.58 9.78 9.99 10.19 10.40 10.6277% 73% 69% 65% 61% 57% 53%
11.96 11.57 11.15 10.72 10.26 9.78 9.278.27 8.40 8.53 8.67 8.80 8.94 9.08
$29.62 $29.55 $29.47 $29.37 $29.25 $29.12 $28.97
$9.01 $9.68 $10.20 $10.91 $11.78 $12.23 $12.66
$9.01 $9.68 $10.20 $10.91 $11.78 $12.23 $12.66
23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830$389.32 $418.41 $441.11 $471.78 $509.09 $528.66 $547.34
837 839 841 843 845 847 849
$20.64 $21.02 $21.40 $21.79 $22.19 $22.60 $23.01
$409.97 $439.42 $462.51 $493.58 $531.28 $551.26 $570.3529.390 29.927 30.473 31.029 31.596 32.172 32.759
468.98 498.90 522.45 553.97 592.12 612.55 632.07$227.18 $230.79 $234.45 $238.15 $241.87 $245.63 $249.47
$42.09 $45.25 $48.64 $52.28 $56.20 $60.41$22.84 $19.69 $16.30 $12.66 $8.74 $4.53
64.94 64.94 64.94 64.94 64.94 64.943.50 3.55 3.61 3.67 3.72 3.78
5,637 5,334 5,145 4,891 4,609 4,512 4,430
$18,739 $17,690 $17,022 $16,144 $15,175 $14,820 $14,518$879 $817 $754 $691 $628 $565 $503$440 $503 $565 $628 $691 $754 $817
$227.18 $230.79 $234.45 $238.15 $241.87 $245.63 $249.47
$12.85 $13.71 $14.33 $14.98 $15.66 $16.36 $17.10
$12.85 $13.71 $14.33 $14.98 $15.66 $16.36 $17.10
$46.29 $49.56 $51.63 $54.00 $56.44 $58.97 $61.65
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$46.29 $49.56 $51.63 $54.00 $56.44 $58.97 $61.65
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%$1,205,571 $1,230,522 $1,255,990 $1,281,984 $1,308,517 $1,335,598 $1,363,241
0.20 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22
$59.14 $63.27 $65.97 $68.99 $72.09 $75.33 $78.75
168.04 167.52 168.48 169.16 169.78 170.29 170.72103.10 102.58 103.54 104.22 104.84 105.36 170.72
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
63 63 63 63 63 63 63
4.70% 4.42% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%
59 56 56 56 56 56 56
4.70% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%
59 56 56 56 56 56 56
42.09 45.25 48.64 52.28 56.20 60.413.41 3.49 3.56 3.63 3.71 3.78 3.86 4.86 4.96 5.07 5.17 5.28 5.39 5.50
74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99
18.44 10.12 -0.70 -11.06 -21.30 -31.38 -150.90
$168.04 $167.52 $168.48 $169.16 $169.78 $170.29 $170.72$8.27 $8.40 $8.53 $8.67 $8.80 $8.94 $9.08
. . . . . . .. . . . . . .$389.32 $418.41 $441.11 $471.78 $509.09 $528.66 $547.34
$20.64 $21.02 $21.40 $21.79 $22.19 $22.60 $23.01$29.39 $29.93 $30.47 $31.03 $31.60 $32.17 $32.76$59.14 $63.27 $65.97 $68.99 $72.09 $75.33 $78.75
$44.95 $45.57 $46.20 $46.83 $47.46 $48.09 $48.74$76.91 $82.16 $86.30 $91.83 $98.53 $102.13 $105.57
$121.86 $127.73 $132.50 $138.66 $145.99 $150.23 $154.32
667 733 800 866 933 999 1066
8.75%6.55% 6.55% 6.56% 6.55%
5.90% 5.91% 5.90% 5.91% 5.90% 5.91% 5.90%4.70% 4.42% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
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8.93% 4.46%6.55% 6.55% 6.56% 6.55% 3.28%5.90% 5.90% 5.91% 5.90% 5.91% 5.90% 5.91%4.89% 4.52% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
4.70% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
7 8 9 10 11 12 130.41 0.33 0.26 0.21 0.16 0.12 0.090.64 0.59 0.53 0.48 0.42 0.37 0.320.77 0.73 0.69 0.65 0.61 0.57 0.53
0.89 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.760.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.870.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.93
1.60% 1.62% 1.61% 1.61% 1.59% 1.58% 1.59%
State
$215.28$21.37$3.35
###########
$190.57
rithm vs. Income_Rev_Req
$/kW-Yr
-
7/27/2019 CEC COG Model Version 2.02-4!5!10
61/731
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7/27/2019 CEC COG Model Version 2.02-4!5!10
62/731
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7/27/2019 CEC COG Model Version 2.02-4!5!10
63/731
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
$928.74 $955.71 $987.27 $990.02 $1,021.69 $1,043.98 $1,066.363,269.122 3,261.295 3,253.486 3,245.697 3,237.925 3,230.173 3,222.439
47.47 48.21 48.97 49.72 50.49 51.25 52.01108.78 112.96 117.93 118.04 123.06 126.51 129.99
$510.81 $525.64 $543.00 $544.51 $561.93 $574.19 $586.50928.74$ 955.71$ 987.27$ 990.02$ 1,021.69$ 1,043.98$ 1,066.36$ -$
10.84 11.06 11.29 11.52 11.76 12.01 12.2649% 45% 41% 37% 33% 30% 27% 24%
8.74 8.19 7.61 7.01 6.37 5.91 5.439.22 9.36 9.51 9.66 9.81 9.96 10.12
$28.80 $28.62 $28.41 $28.19 $27.95 $27.88 $27.80
$13.64 $14.16 $14.77 $14.73 $15.35 $15.75 $16.15 $16.80
$13.64 $14.16 $14.77 $14.73 $15.35 $15.75 $16.15
23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830 23,776,830$589.80 $612.00 $638.71 $636.63 $663.42 $680.84 $698.33
852 854 856 858 860 862 864
$23.43 $23.86 $24.29 $24.73 $25.19 $25.65 $26.11
$613.23 $635.86 $663.00 $661.36 $688.61 $706.49 $724.4433.357 33.966 34.586 35.218 35.860 36.515 37.181
675.39 698.44 726.00 724.77 752.42 770.88 789.42$253.35 $257.27 $261.27 $265.25 $269.27 $273.10 $276.94
4,180 4,094 3,988 4,066 3,966 3,926 3,889
$13,664 $13,353 $12,976 $13,198 $12,840 $12,682 $12,531$440 $377 $314 $251 $188 $126 $63 ($0)$879 $942 $1,005 $1,068 $1,131 $1,193 $1,256
$253.35 $257.27 $261.27 $265.25 $269.27 $273.10 $276.94
$17.45 $17.79 $18.15 $18.50 $18.85 $19.19 $19.53
$17.45 $17.79 $18.15 $18.50 $18.85 $19.19 $19.53
$62.88 $64.13 $65.40 $66.67 $67.95 $69.17 $70.36
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$62.88 $64.13 $65.40 $66.67 $67.95 $69.17 $70.36
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%$1,391,455 $1,420,253 $1,449,647 $1,479,650 $1,510,273 $1,541,530 $1,573,435
0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26
$80.32 $81.92 $83.54 $85.17 $86.80 $88.37 $89.89
173.03 175.35 177.72 180.08 182.47 184.73 187.05173.03 175.35 177.72 180.08 182.47 184.73 187.05
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
63 63 63 63 63 63 63
4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.47%
56 56 56 56 56 56 56
4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%
56 56 56 56 56 56 56
3.94 4.02 4.11 4.19 4.28 4.37 4.46 5.61 5.73 5.85 5.97 6.09 6.22 6.35
74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99 74.99
-163.99 -177.10 -190.32 -203.49 -216.73 -229.75 -242.87
$173.03 $175.35 $177.72 $180.08 $182.47 $184.73 $187.05$9.22 $9.36 $9.51 $9.66 $9.81 $9.96 $10.12
. . . . . . .. . . . . . .$589.80 $612.00 $638.71 $636.63 $663.42 $680.84 $698.33
$23.43 $23.86 $24.29 $24.73 $25.19 $25.65 $26.11$33.36 $33.97 $34.59 $35.22 $35.86 $36.51 $37.18$80.32 $81.92 $83.54 $85.17 $86.80 $88.37 $89.89
$49.39 $50.04 $50.71 $51.37 $52.03 $52.69 $53.35$113.19 $117.25 $122.11 $121.94 $126.82 $130.06 $133.32$162.58 $167.30 $172.82 $173.30 $178.85 $182.75 $186.67
1133 1199 1266 1333 1400 1467 1533
5.91% 5.90%4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.47%
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
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5.90% 5.91% 2.95%4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 2.23%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46% 4.46%5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 210.06 0.04 0.010.28 0.24 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.11 0.10 0.080.49 0.45 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.27 0.24
0.74 0.72 0.69 0.67 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.570.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.78 0.760.92 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86
1.58% 1.57% 1.57% 1.54% 1.53% 1.51% 1.49% 1.49%
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2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
21% 19% 16% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5%
$17.46 $18.08 $18.73 $19.33 $19.95 $20.57 $21.27 $21.98 $22.72
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22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
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2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
0.05 0.03 0.010.21 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.05
0.54 0.51 0.48 0.46 0.43 0.40 0.38 0.35 0.330.74 0.73 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.61 0.590.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.76
1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47%
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2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047
-$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
3% 2%
$23.50 $24.30 $25.12 $25.96 $26.82 $27.72 $28.65 $29.61 $30.61
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31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
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2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
0.03 0.02
0.31 0.28 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.170.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.410.75 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63
1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47% 1.47%
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2048
-$
$31.64
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GDA
ITC
PTC
40
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2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
0.15 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.020.39 0.37 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.30 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.240.62 0.60 0.58 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.47
1.47%
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2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
0.23 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.10
0.45 0.44 0.42 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.32
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2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070 2071 2072 2073 2074
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
0.09 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.010.31 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.20
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2075 2076 2077 2078 2079 2080 2081 2082 2083 2084
9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79
0.19 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.80 0.07 0.05
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2085 2086
9% 9%
80 81
0.04 0.02
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DO NOT DELETE COLUMS OR ROWS, USE DELETE KEY OR CLEAR CONTENTS COMMAND
Cell Name (DO NOT
CHANGE) Parameter
Combustion
Turbine - 49.9
MW
Combustion
Turbine - 100 MW
Source Reference Aspen 5-23-09 Aspen 5-23-09
BaseYr Base Year 2009 2009
FuelType Fuel Natural Gas Natural Gas
Plant SizeGrossMW Gross Capacity (MW) 49.9 100
SiteLoadPct Plant-side Uses & Losses % 3.40% 3.40%
AnnCapDegredationRate Annual capacity degradation rate 0.05% 0.05%
DebtTerm Loan/Debt Term 12 12BookLife Economic/Book Life 20 20FedTaxLife Federal Tax Life: 15 15StateTaxLife State Tax Life: 15 15
Fuel UseAvgHeatRate Heat Rate 9266 9266StartUpFuel Start up fuel use 139.72 280
AnnualStarts No. of annual starts 120 120
HeatRateDegredation Heat Rate Degradation 0.05% 0.05%
Construction Costs by YearYears Out from On-Line Date
Year0 Cost %/Year 0 100.0% 100.0%
Year1 Cost %/Year - 1 0.0% 0.0%Year2 Cost %/Year - 2 0% 0%Year3 Cost %/Year - 3 0% 0%Year4 Cost %/Year - 4 0% 0%
Year5 Cost %/Year - 5 0% 0%Years Out from On-Line Date 100% 100%
MonthYear0 Months under construction Yr 0 9 9
MonthYear1 Months under construction Yr -1 0 0
MonthYear2 Months under construction Yr -2 0 0
MonthYear3 Months under construction Yr -3 0 0
MonthYear4 Months under construction Yr -4 0 0MonthYear5 Months under construction Yr -5 0 0
Operational Info.PlannedPctYrOp Planned % of Year Operational 5.3% 5.2%
Reference Target Capacity Factor 5.0% 5.0%
AverageOutputPct Average Output During Operation 100% 100%
EquipLifeYears Equipment Life 20 20
MajorOverhaulInterval Overhaul Interval in Hrs 876 876SchdOutageHours eduled & Maintenance Outage Hours
EnterSchdOutageFactor Maintenance Outage 2.72% 3.18%ForcedOutageRate Forced Outage Hours/Year 5.56% 4.13%
Operations CostsFixedOMPerkWYrUserInput User Input Fixed O&M ($/kW-Yr)TotalVariableOMPerMWhUserIn User Input Var. O&M ($/MWh) $4.17 $4.17
Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Employees
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ManagerFTE Managers 0.8 0.8
PlantOperatorFTE Plant Operators 2.3 2.3
MechanicsFTE Mechanics 0.6 0.6
LaborerFTE Laborers 0 0SupportStaffFTE Support Staff 0.5 0.5
Hours/Year
ManagerHrs ManagersPlantOperatorHrs Plant Operators 2,080 2,080MechanicsHrs Mechanics 2,080 2,080LaborerHrs Laborers 2,080 2,080SupportStaffHrs Support Staff 2,080 2,080
SalaryManagerSalary Managers $164,282 $164,282
PlantOperatorWage Plant Operators $34.95 $34.95
MechanicsWage Mechanics $37.86 $37.86LaborerWage Laborers $29.28 $29.28SupportStaffWage Support Staff $26.91 $26.91
Fixed O&M
InsurancePct Insurance = 0.60% 0.60%OverheadMultiplier Overhead Multiplier 1.5926 1.5926NonlaborFixedOM Non-labor Fixed O&M Costs inc. ODC $10.89 $10.89
Other Operating CostsWaterConsumptionAF Consumption (AF/MWh) 0.0011 0.0011
MakeUpWater Make Up Water
System Delivery CostsTransmissionLosses Transmission Losses 2.09% 2.09%TransServiceCostPerMW Transmission Serv $/MWWheelingChargesPerkWh CAISO Wheeling Charges $/MWH $4.30 $4.30SchedulerCosts Scheduler Costs $/MWH
Capital Cost DetailComponent Cost 1,277 1,204
ComponentCost1 Item 1 63,722,300 120,400,000ComponentCost2 Item 2
ComponentCost3 Item 3
ComponentCost4 Item 4
ComponentCost5 Item 5ComponentCost6 Item 6ComponentCost7 Item 7ComponentCost8 Item 8ComponentCost9 Item 9ComponentName1 Label for Item 1 Total Overnight C Total Overnight CoComponentName2 Label for Item 2
ComponentName3 Label for Item 3
ComponentName4 Label for Item 4ComponentName5 Label for Item 5ComponentName6 Label for Item 6ComponentName7 Label for Item 7ComponentName8 Label for Item 8ComponentName9 Label for Item 9
% Costs for MaterialsTechnology_Cost_Escalation Technology Cost Escalation
Financial Transaction Costs
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Development Costs
PredevelopmentExpense Predevelopment ExpensesConstructionInsurance Construction Insurance & InstallationCommitmentFee Commitment Fee
Land CostsAcrePerMW Acreage/MW
AcrePerPlant Acreage/Plant 8.0 8.0AdditionalAcreage Additional Occupied Acreage
CostPerAcre Cost per AcreLandPrepCostPerAcre Land Prep Costs/Acre
Permitting CostsLocalBuildingPermitCost Local building permitsEnvironmenalPermitCost Environmental permits 400,000 2,000,000
Interconnection Costs
LinearsCost All connection costsTransmissionCost Transmission interconnectionFuelWaterSewerConnectionCos Fuel / water / sewer costs
Maintenance Cost Detail ($)Consumable Maintenance Costs
ConsumableMaintenancePeriod Consumables Period Year Year
OilConsumptionPerPeriod Oil per period
OilPrice Oil Price ($/gal.)ConsumablesCostPerPeriod Consumables CostConsumableLaborPerPeriod Consumables LaborTotalConsumableCostPerPerio Total Consumables Cost 0 0
Annual Maintenance CostsMaintenanceCost1 Maintenance Cost 1 69,462 139,203
MaintenanceCost2 Maintenance Cost 2
MaintenanceCost3 Maintenance Cost 3
MaintenanceCost4 Maintenance Cost 4
MaintenanceCost5 Maintenance Cost 5
MaintenanceCost6 Maintenance Cost 6MaintenanceCost7 Maintenance Cost 7MaintenanceCost8 Maintenance Cost 8MaintenanceName1 Maintenance Cost Label 1 e & consumables ce & consumablesMaintenanceName2 Maintenance Cost Label 2MaintenanceName3 Maintenance Cost Label 3MaintenanceName4 Maintenance Cost Label 4MaintenanceName5 Maintenance Cost Label 5
MaintenanceName6 Maintenance Cost Label 6
MaintenanceName7 Maintenance Cost Label 7
WellField CostsWellFieldCostsAnnual WellField CostsWellCleanOut Well clean outWellPumpMaintenance Well pumps maintenanceWellChemicals Brine chemicalsWellMisc Misc.
Annual Routine MaintenanceMajor Overhauls
MajorOverhaulLabor Major Overhaul Labor
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MajorOverhaulReplacementCos Major Overhaul Replacement
Minor OverhaulsMinorOverhaulItem1 Annual Cost Item 1
MinorOverhaulItem1Hrs Hrs to Item 1 Job:MinorOverhaulItem2 Annual Cost Item 2MinorOverhaulItem2Hrs Hrs to Item 2 Job:
MinorOverhaulItem3 Annual Cost Item 3 (incl labor)MinorOverhaulItem3Hrs Hrs to Item 3 Job:
Unscheduled MaintenanceUnschdMaintenancePartsCost Parts Costs
Environmental Control CostsMedia & Technology
Air EmissionsControl Technology (eg SCR)
AirControlInstallCost Installation CostAirControlAnnualLabor Annual LaborAirControlAnnualConsumables Annual ConsumablesAirControlReplacementCost Replacement Cost
AirControlComponentLife Component LifeWater CoolingControl Technology (eg wastewater)
WaterControlInstallCost Installation Cost
WaterControlAnnualLabor Annual Labor
WaterControlAnnualConsumabl Annual Consumables
WaterControlReplacementCost Replacement CostWaterControlComponentLife Component Life
Solid Waste DisposalNon hazardous material
NonHazardTonsPerYear Tons per YearNonHazardCollectionCost Collection and hauling ($/ton)NonHazardTippingCost Landfill tipping fees ($/ton)
Hazardous materialsHazardTonsPerYear Tons per Year
HazardCollectionCost Collection and hauling ($/ton)
HazardTippingCost Landfill tipping fees ($/ton)
Byproduct Revenues and CostsByproduct 1
Byproduct1LbsPerkW Annual production (units/kW)Byproduct1ProcessingCostPerL Processing costs ($/unit)Byproduct1ShippingCostPerLb Shipping costs ($/unit)Byproduct1RevenuesPerLb Revenues ($/unit)
Environmental Impacts/DischargesAir Emissions per MWH
LbsNOx NOx 0.279 0.279LbsVOC VOC/ROG 0.054 0.054LbsCO CO 0.368 0.368LbsCO2 CO2 1,080.2 1,080.2LbsH2S H2SLbsCH4 CH4LbsNH3 NH3LbsSOx SOx 0.013 0.013LbsPM10 PM10 0.134 0.134
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Water DischargesWaterDischargeList [List of pollutants]
WaterDischargeThermal Thermal
WaterDischargeInstreamFlows Instream flowsTax Incentives
ApplyBETC Investment Tax Credit N N
BETCPct Investment Tax Credit PercentBETCDepreciation Tax Depreciation AdjustmentBETCExpires Investment Tax Credit Expiration
ApplyREPTC ewable Energy Production Tax Credit N NREPTC Energy Production Tax Credit Amount
REPTCBaseYr REPTC BaseYr
REPTCDuration nergy Production Tax Credit Duration
REPTCExpires REPTC Expiration Year
EligibleGeothermalDepletion e for Geothermal Depletion Allowance N NApplyGeothermalDepletion pply Geothermal Depletion Allowance N NGeothermalDepletionPct Geothermal Depletion Rate FactorGeothermalDepletionLimit eothermal Depletion Limit on Income
REPITier REPI TierREPI REPIREPIBaseYr REPI BaseYr
REPIDuration REPI Duration
REPIExpires REPI Expiration
SolarPropTax CA Solar Property Tax Exemption
CSI_PBI CA Solar Initiative PBICSIDuration CSI Duration (years)SGIPRebate SGIP Rebate $/kW
Legacy EntriesInstallation Costs
Derate FactorEquipment Life (Hours):
Labor Escalation CostReplacement Interval
Replacement Parts Labor (hrs)
Maintenance IntervalMaterials/Supplies
Labor (hrs) Oil Change Interval (hrs)
Oil Filter Price (hrs) Oil Capacity (gal.)
Oil Added per Day (gal.) Fuel Filter Interval
Fuel Filter Price Labor (hrs) Labor/day
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Water Consumption (AF/year) Annual Air Consumables
Annual Water Consumables
Financing CostsEquity Fee
Title InsuranceSR Debt Arrangement Fee
Legal ClosingBanking Due Diligence Exp.
Insurance Consultant FeeService Time to Scheduled Outage (Hours)
Days per Schd. OutageService Time to Maintenance Outage (Hours)
Day per Main. Outage
Cost $/LbNOx
VOC/ROGCOCO2H2SCH4NH3
SOxPM10
Cost $/LbNOx
VOC/ROGCO
CO2
H2SCH4NH3SOx
PM10Water Supply 197 197Variable O&M 9.1419 9.1419
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TO DELETE VALUES
Combustion
Turbine -
Advanced
Combined Cycle
Standard - 2 Turbines,
No Duct Firing
Combined Cycle
Standard - 2 Turbines,
Duct Firing
Combined Cycle
Advanced (H
Frame)Aspen 5-23-09 Aspen 5-23-09 Aspen 5-23-09 Aspen 5-23-09
2009 2009 2009 2009
Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas Natural Gas
200 500 550 8003.40% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%0.05% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24%
12 12 12 1220 20 20 2015 20 20 2015 20 20 20
8550 6940 7050 6,470560 1400 1540 2240120 25 25 25
0.05% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24%
75.0% 75% 75% 75%
25.0% 25% 25% 25%0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%100% 100% 100% 100%12 12 12 12
3 12 12 120 0 0 00 0 0 0
0 0 0 00 0 0 0
10.4% 76.7% 71.6% 76.7%10.0% 75.0% 70.0% 75.0%
100% 100% 100% 100%20 20 20 20
876 14839 14839 14839
3.18% 6.02% 6.02% 6.02%4.13% 2.24% 2.24% 2.24%
$16.33 $7.17$3.67 $3.02 $3.02 $2.69
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0.8 2.6 2.7 3.42.3 13.6 14.3 17.70.6 2.8 2.9 3.6
0 0.5 0.5 0.60.5 3.5 3.7 4.6
2,080 2,080 2,080 2,0802,080 2,080 2,080 2,0802,080 2,080 2,080 2,0802,080 2,080 2,080 2,080
$164,282 $164,282 $164,282 $164,282$34.95 $34.95 $34.95 $34.95
$37.86 $37.86 $37.86 $37.86$29.28 $29.28 $29.28 $29.28$26.91 $26.91 $26.91 $26.91
0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%1.5926 1.5926 1.5926 1.5926$10.22 $2.13 $2.13 $1.85
0.0011 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009
2.09% 2.09% 2.09% 2.09%
$4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30
801 1,044 1,021 957
160,200,000 522,000,000 561,550,000 765,600,000
0 0 0
Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight Cost
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8.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
4,000,000 5,000,000 5,500,000 8,000,000
Year Year Year Year
0 1,116,407 1,146,178 1,786,252
495,133 7,325,550 7,520,898 10,422,567
ance & consumables Annual maintenance Annual maintenance Annual maintenance
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0.099 0.070 0.076 0.0640.031 0.208 0.315 0.0180.190 0.024 0.018 0.056996.7 814.9 825.4 758.9
0.008 0.005 0.009 0.0050.062 0.037 0.042 0.031
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N N N N
N N N N
N N N NN N N N
1222591.6
0.005
48
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196/731
00
197 197 197 1979.1419 1.2058 1.2034 1.2058
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Integrated
Gasification
Combined Cycle
(IGCC)
AP 1000 PWR
Nuclear
Biomass - Co-
gasification IGCC
(2018)
Biomass - Direct
Combustion W/
Fluidized Bed
Biomass - Direct
Combustion
W/Stoker BoilerKEMA 5-23-07 KEMA 5-23-08 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Gassified Coal Uranium Biomass Biomass Biomass
300 960 30 28 386.00% 2.20% 3.50% 6.00% 4.00%0.05% 0.20% 0.05% 0.10% 0.10%
15 20 15 12 1220 40 20 20 2015 20 5 5 520 30 20 20 20
7580 10,400 10500 10500 11000
0.10% 0.20% 0.20% 0.15% 0.15%
80% 2% 75% 80% 80%
20% 2% 25% 20% 20%0% 6% 0% 0% 0%0% 14% 0% 0% 0%0% 20% 0% 0% 0%
0% 56% 0% 0% 0%100% 100% 100% 100% 100%12 12 12 12 1212 12 6 6 6
0 12 0 0 00 12 0 0 0
0 12 0 0 00 48 0 0 0
84.2% 88.9% 81.5% 92.4% 92.4%80.0% 86.5% 75.0% 85.0% 85.0%
100.0% 100% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%40 40 20 20 20
0 0 0 0 0
15.00% 11.12% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%5.00% 2.72% 8.00% 8.00% 8.00%
$52.35 $147.70 $150.00 $99.50 $160.10$9.57 $5.27 $4.00 $4.47 $6.98
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0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%
2.09% 2.09% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%39,000 $39,000 $39,000
$4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30
3,128 3,950 2,950 3,200 2,600
938,397,400 3,792,249,600 88,500,000 89,600,000 98,800,000
Total Overnight Co Total Overnight C Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight Co Total Overnight Cos
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0 0 0 0 0
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200/731
0.220 0.000 0.074 0.074 0.0750.009 0.000 0.009 0.009 0.012
0.079 0.000 0.029 0.079 0.105
153.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.063 0.000 0.020 0.020 0.034
0.031 0.000 0.100 0.100 0.100
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Y N Y Y Y
30% 30% 30% 30%15% 15% 15% 15%2014 2014 2014 2014
N N Y Y Y$0.001 $0.011 $0.010 $0.010 $0.0102006 2008 2008 2008 2008
10 8 10 10 102009 2013 2013 2013
N N N N NN N N N N
2 2 2$0.021 $0.021 $0.0212008 2008 2008
10 10 102017 2017 2017
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Geothermal -
Binary
Geothermal -
Dual Flash Hydro - Small Scale Hydro - Upgrade
Ocean - Wave
(2018)KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Steam Steam Hydro Hydro Tidal
15 30 15 80 405.00% 5.00% 10.00% 5.00% 1.00%4.00% 4.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.00%
20 20 20 20 2030 30 30 30 30
5 5 5 5 520 20 30 30 30
0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%
40% 40% 100% 100% 100%
40% 40% 0% 0% 0%20% 20% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%100% 100% 100% 100% 100%12 12 12 12 1212 12 0 0 12
6 6 0 00 0 0 0
0 0 0 00 0 0 0
92.3% 96.4% 32.0% 32.0% 91%90.0% 94.0% 30.4% 30.4% 26.0%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 30.2%30 30 30 30 30
0 0 0
4.00% 4.00% 9.40% 9.40% 9.40%2.50% 2.50% 5.10% 5.10% 5.10%
$47.44 $58.38 $17.57 $12.59 $36.00$4.55 $5.06 $3.48 $2.39 $12.00
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0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%
5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%$254,000 $254,000 $74,000
$4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30 $4.30
4,046 3,676 1,730 771 2,587
60,690,000 110,280,000 25,950,000 61,680,000 $103,465,807
Total Overnight Total Overnight Co Total Overnight Cost Total Overnight CoTotal Overnight Cost
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0.000 0.191 0.000 0.000 0.0000.000 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.0000.000 0.058 0.000 0.000 0.000
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.000 0.026 0.000 0.000 0.0000.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
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Y Y Y N Y
30% 30% 30% 30%15% 15% 15% 15%2014 2014 2014 2014
Y Y Y N Y$0.021 $0.021 $0.010 $0.0102008 2008 2008 200810 10 10
2013 2013 2013 2013
Y Y N N NY Y N N N
15% 15%50% 50%
1 1 1$0.021 $0.021 $0.0212008 2008 200810 10 10
2017 2017 2017
0 0
1 1260000 260000
0.005 0.005
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25000 250000 00 0
250000 120000
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Solar - Parabolic
Trough
Solar - Parabolic
Trough with
storage
Solar -
Photovoltaic
(Single Axis) Wind - Class 3/4 Wind - Class 5KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09 KEMA 5-23-09
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Solar Solar Solar Wind Wind
250 250 25 50 10022.40% 29.40% 22.40% 0.10% 0.10%
0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 1.00% 1.00%
15 15 15 20 2020 20 20 30 30
5 5 5 5 520 20 20 30 30
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
100% 100% 100% 95% 95%0% 0% 0% 5% 5%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%100% 100% 100% 100% 100%12 12 12 12 12
0 0 0 6 60 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0
32% 78% 32% 99% 99%27.0% 65.0% 27.0% 37.0% 42.0%
85.0% 85.0% 85.0% 38.3% 43.5%20 20 20 30 30
2.20% 2.20% 0.00% 1.39% 1.39%1.60% 1.60% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
$68.00 $68.00 $68.00 $13.70 $13.70$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $5.50 $5.50
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