cement sales ytd 2011

1 © BMI-BRSCU

TowardsMaking sense of the Building Industry:

Domestic Cement SalesDr. Llewellyn B. Lewis

Dec 2011

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2

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: DECEMBER 2011: BPP AND BC (SEPT), CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES (OCT).

Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) ended 2010 at -7,75% compared to 2009

Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 for Domestic Cement Sales recorded a decrease of -5,04% compared to 2010, followed by Cumulative Y/Y declines of -3,34% in February, -2,85% in March, -1,91% in April, -2,11% in May, +0,04% in June and +0,07% in July and + 0,69% in August, +2,08% in September and +2,95% in October - thus a gradually improving trend.

The MAT Forecast for Domestic Cement Sales shows marginal growth of + 2,46% for 2011 vs 2010.

Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) ended 2010 at +7,20% compared to 2009.

Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 recorded a massive increase of 34,58% compared to 2010, followed by Cumulative Y/Y growths of 19,62% in February, 17,38% in March, 12,86% in April, 12,56% in May, 15,57% in June, 15,78% in July, 14,61% in August, +17,48% in September and +15,67% in October.

It does appear as if Lumber Sales is continuing to "buck the trend" which may be the "green shoots" the building industry is looking for.

The MAT Forecast for Local Building Lumber Sales (in m3) shows strong growth of + 13,06% for 2011 vs 2010.

. Total Building Plans Passed (m2) ended 2010 at -11,65% compared to 2009.

Cumulative Y/Y building plans passed (BPP) by larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD Sept 2011 decreased by -2,56% compared with Sept 2010.

• A decrease was reported for Additions and Alterations BPP (- 15,02%), whilst

• BPP for Residential Buildings increased by + 3,95%.

• The increase reported for non residential buildings BPP was + 4,83%. Longer term trends in the non-residential sector still reflect falling demand levels.

The MAT Forecast for Residential BPP (in m2) shows marginal decline of - 0,62%, Non Residential BPP shows decline of – 4,90% and Total Building shows decline of – 1,95% for 2011 vs 2010.

THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: BPP & BC, CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES: 2010, 2009 & 2011

3

Total Buildings Completed (m2) ended 2010 at -27,87% compared to 2009.

Cumulative Y/Y buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD Sept 2011 decreased by – 8,11% compared with Sept 2010.

• The largest percentage decrease in the value of buildings reported as completed (BC) was reported for Non residential building (- 21.39%), whilst

• Residential buildings recorded a decline (- 2,92%) and

• Additions and Alterations decreased (- 5,44%).

After these first 9 months results it is still our view that the decline in Residential Investment should decrease month on month from now on and in spite of the expected decline in Non Residential activity (about half that of Residential Building) will contribute to the positive growth in Total Investment in Building from the third quarter of 2011.

The MAT Forecast for Residential BC shows marginal decline of – 2,41%, Non Residential BC shows DECLINE of – 13,80% and Total Building shows DECLINE of – 6,06% for 2011 vs 2010.

From the foregoing comparisons it can be seen that ALL the indicators indicate a turning point and MAT Forecasts indicating gradual growth (less negative).

It still remains to be seen whether the gradual improvement in BPP and BC from the levels achieved in 2010 will be encouraged by the increasing willingness of the Banks to relax their stringent lending criteria so that Mortgage Advances can flow into the industry. At this stage it is mainly first time homebuyers in the middle income sector that are benefiting.


4


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Total Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -13.68% -9.13% 3.09% -0.18% -7.48% -3.69% -5.13% -6.44% -3.19% -2.16% -1.94% -1.78%

Total Non Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -27.22% -3.67% -10.82% -9.64% -13.66% -8.22% -17.75% -19.86% -18.45% -19.69% -18.06% -16.91%

Total BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -17.93% -7.58% -1.42% -3.25% -9.44% -5.12% -9.29% -10.79% -8.08% -7.92% -7.16% -6.62%

Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) -5.04% -3.34% -2.85% -1.91% -2.11% 0.04% -0.02% 0.61% 2.08% 2.95% 3.58% 3.34%

Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) 34.58% 19.62% 17.38% 12.86% 12.56% 15.57% 15.78% 14.61% 17.48% 15.67% 14.10% 13.22%

Cumulative YTD Buildings Completed (BC), Domestic Cement Sales and Local Building Lumber Sales: % Change by Sector: January - Dec 2011

(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

MAT FORECAST

5 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES Y/Y COMPARISON BY MONTH & DAY: 2011 VS 2010 AND 2009

SA Cementitious Monthly Sales Tons SA Cementitious Daily Average Sales Tons Number of Sales DaysChange Change

'11 vs '10 '10 vs '09 '11 vs '10 '10 vs '09January 638 749 672 676 842 461 -5.0% -20.2% 30 417 33 634 40 117 -9.6% -16.2% 21 20 21February 823 934 840 586 933 254 -2.0% -9.9% 41 197 42 029 46 663 -2.0% -9.9% 20 20 20March 1 008 902 1 030 817 1 066 644 -2.1% -3.4% 45 859 46 855 48 484 -2.1% -3.4% 22 22 22April 816 337 807 820 896 069 1.1% -9.8% 45 352 42 517 49 782 6.7% -14.6% 18 19 18May 912 584 939 318 1 011 066 -2.8% -7.1% 45 629 44 729 50 553 2.0% -11.5% 20 21 20June 996 500 903 857 984 862 10.2% -8.2% 47 452 43 041 46 898 10.2% -8.2% 21 21 21July 973 004 976 041 1 096 446 -0.3% -11.0% 46 334 44 365 47 672 4.4% -6.9% 21 22 23August 1 014 939 970 004 1 007 000 4.6% -3.7% 46 134 46 191 50 350 -0.1% -8.3% 22 21 20September 1 104 877 980 071 1 047 578 12.7% -6.4% 50 222 46 670 49 885 7.6% -6.4% 22 21 21October 1 055 669 956 783 1 085 584 10.3% -11.9% 50 270 45 561 49 345 10.3% -7.7% 21 21 22November 1 141 248 1 045 907 1 024 985 9.1% 2.0% 51 875 47 541 48 809 9.1% -2.6% 22 22 21December 746 514 787 719 -5.2% 35 548 37 510 -5.2% 20 21 21

10 486 743 10 870 394 11 783 670 3.6% -7.8% 45 595 43 308 47 135 3.6% -8.1% 250 251 250YTD YTD Annual YTD YTD Annual

SA Cementitious Monthly Sales Tons SA Cementitious Daily Average Sales Tons Number of Sales DaysChange Change

'11 vs '10 '10 vs '09 '11 vs '10 '10 vs '09Month 1 141 248 1 045 907 1 024 985 9.1% 2.0% 51 875 47 541 48 809 9.1% -2.6% 22 22 21 YTD 10 486 743 10 123 880 10 995 950 3.6% -7.9% 45 595 44 017 48 017 3.6% -8.3% 230 230 229 MAT 11 233 257 10 911 599 2.9% 44 754 43 473 2.9% 251 251

RELEASE: NOVEMBER 2011

2011 2010 2009

Period

TotalAnnual AnnualAnnual

Period2009

2011 2010 2009 2011

2011 2010 2009 2011 2010

2011 2010 2009 2010 2009

NATIONAL CEMENTITIOUS SALES STATISTICS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

(excluding sales to Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Swaziland, Imports by 3rd parties, sales by other than reporting companies and Exports.)

6 © BMI-BRSCU

THE MARKET FOR MAJOR BUILDING PRODUCTS BY PRODUCT: 2009

The market for major Building Product Groups by value: 2009 (Source: BMI-BRSCU)

4.40%

1.26%

7.28%

1.35%

1.36%

6.27%

12.84%

6.43%

13.42%

3.01%

2.61%

1.56%

10.16%

1.90%

1.98%

1.17%

0.33%

2.85%

2.95%

0.87%

0.25%

6.46%

8.27%

1.01%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Roofing and Vertical Cladding

Ceilings and Partitioning

Walling

Paving

Wall Tiles

Flooring

Cement

Aggregate and Sand

Reinforcing Steel and Sections

Sanware

Taps, Mixers and Fittings

Plumbing Pipes and Fittings

Pipes and Fittings

Geysers

Glass and Mirrors

Doors

Garage Doors

Frames

Roof Trusses

Windowsills, Fasciaboards and Bargeboards

Rainwater Goods

Decorative Paint

Flatboard (PB, MDF, Other)**

Insulation

Total value of major Building Product Groups = R103,4 Billion in 2009.

Major Building Product Groups account for 52,32% of Total Building and

Construction Materials and 31,4% of Total Investment in Building and Construction.

7 © BMI-BRSCU

THE MARKET FOR CEMENT IN BUILDING BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2010

DEMAND AND MARKET SHARE FOR CEMENT BY SEGMENT IN THE BUILDING INDUSTRY: 2010 (R MILLIONS)(Source: StatsSA, SARB, C&CI, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

2.14%

13.00%

4.86%

0.85%

5.23%

26.08%

16.04%

3.24%

0.03%

19.30%

6.52%

51.90%

5.45%

5.05%

11.08%

2.27%

4.76%

28.60%

6.79%

12.71%

48.10%

0 0 0 0 0 1 1

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL

- Dwelling Houses < 80m2

- Dwelling houses > 80m2

- Townhouses and Flats

- Other (Including Hotels)

- Additions and Alterations

Sub-total

PUBLIC RESIDENTIAL

- Affordable Housing

- Public Authorities

- Public Corporations

Sub-total

- Unrecorded Res Additions and Alterations

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL

BUILDING TYPE : NON RESIDENTIAL

- Offices

- Shops (Commercial)

- Industrial

- Other (Including Casinos)

- Recorded Additions and Alterations

TOTAL PRIVATE NON RES SEGMENT

- Unrecorded Non Res Additions and Alterations

TOTAL PUBLIC NON RES SEGMENT

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

8 © BMI-BRSCU

THE MARKET FOR CEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION BY SECTOR AND SEGMENT: 2010

DEMAND AND MARKET SHARE FOR CEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION BY SEGMENT: 2010: TONNES(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

1,598,718

533,857

263,788

1,455,975

1,857,367

5,709,706

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

Roads Streets, Bridges etc

Waterworks

Sewerage

Other Construction Works

Private Sector

TOTAL CEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION(Lower Middle Road Scenario)

9 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: 1892 - 2010

0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

1892

1896

1900

1904

1908

1912

1916

1920

1924

1928

1932

1936

1940

1944

1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Ton

nes

Domestic Cement Sales: 1892-2010(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

10 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: Y/Y % CHANGE 1893 - 2010

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

150%

1893

1897

1901

1905

1909

1913

1917

1921

1925

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

Domestic Cement Sales: Y/Y % Change: 1893-2010(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

11 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: 1997 – MAT* 2011 (* NOVEMBER)

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

9 000 000

10 000 000

11 000 000

12 000 000

13 000 000

14 000 000

15 000 000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ton

ne

s

Annual Domestic Cement Sales: 1997 - MAT* 2011 (* Nov)(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

12 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES BY MONTH: 1997 – 2011 (NOVEMBER)

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

1 100 000

1 200 000

1 300 000

1 400 000

1 500 000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Ton

ne

s

Domestic Cement Sales by Month: 1998-2011 (Nov)(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Domestic Cement Sales by month 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Domestic Cement Sales by month)

13 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES vs BPP: CUM Y/Y % CHANGE BY MONTH: 1999 – 2011 (NOVEMBER)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Cumulative Y/Y percentage change by month:Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) vs BPP (M2): Jan 1999 - Nov 2011

(Source: StatsSA; Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Cement Sales (Tonnes)

Moving average (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Cement Sales (Tonnes))

Cum Y/Y % Change Total BPP (m2)

Moving average (Cum Y/Y % Change Total BPP (m2))

14 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES vs BC: CUM Y/Y % CHANGE BY MONTH: 1999 – 2011 (NOVEMBER)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Cumulative Y/Y percentage change by month:Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) vs BC (M2): Jan 1999 - Nov 2011

(Source: StatsSA; Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Cement Sales (Tonnes)

Moving average (Cum Y/Y % Change: Total Cement Sales (Tonnes))

Cum Y/Y % Change Total BC (m2)

Moving average (Cum Y/Y % Change Total BC (m2))

Local Cement Sales appear to be more closely correlated to Total BPP than to BC and also leads the revival in BC?Related to Merchant anticipation of revival and stock build-up in anticipation?

15 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES CUM Y/Y COMPARISON BY MONTH: 2010 VS 2009 AND 2008

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cum Y/Y sales: 2008 894,157 2,056,94 3,096,51 4,291,18 5,458,64 6,651,70 7,917,50 9,113,69 10,291,6 11,586,7 12,644,9 13,472,8

Cum Y/Y sales: 2009 842,458 1,775,71 2,842,35 3,738,42 4,749,49 5,734,35 6,830,79 7,837,79 8,885,37 9,970,95 10,995,9 11,783,6

Cum Y/Y sales 2010 672,676 1,513,26 2,544,08 3,351,90 4,291,21 5,195,07 6,171,11 7,141,12 8,121,19 9,077,97 10,123,8 10,870,3

% Change Cum Y/Y 2009 VS 2008 -5.78% -13.67% -8.21% -12.88% -12.99% -13.79% -13.73% -14.00% -13.66% -13.95% -13.04% -12.54%

% Change Cum Y/Y 2010 VS 2009 -20.15% -14.78% -10.49% -10.34% -9.65% -9.40% -9.66% -8.89% -8.60% -8.96% -7.93% -7.75%

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000To

nn

es

Domestic Cement Sales: Cumulative Y/Y Comparison: 2010 vs 2009 and 2008(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

16 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALESCUM Y/Y COMPARISON BY MONTH: 2010 VS 2009 AND 2008


Cum Y/Y sales: 2008 894,157 2,056,9 3,096,5 4,291,1 5,458,6 6,651,7 7,917,5 9,113,6 10,291, 11,586, 12,644, 13,472,

Cum Y/Y sales: 2009 842,458 1,775,7 2,842,3 3,738,4 4,749,4 5,734,3 6,830,7 7,837,7 8,885,3 9,970,9 10,995, 11,783,

Cum Y/Y sales 2010 672,676 1,513,2 2,544,0 3,351,9 4,291,2 5,195,0 6,171,1 7,141,1 8,121,1 9,077,9 10,123, 10,870,

% Change Cum Y/Y 2009 VS 2008 -5.78% -13.67% -8.21% -12.88% -12.99% -13.79% -13.73% -14.00% -13.66% -13.95% -13.04% -12.54%

% Change Cum Y/Y 2010 VS 2009 -20.15% -14.78% -10.49% -10.34% -9.65% -9.40% -9.66% -8.89% -8.60% -8.96% -7.93% -7.75%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000To

nn

es

Domestic Cement Sales: Cumulative Y/Y Comparison: 2010 vs 2009 and 2008(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

17 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALESCUM Y/Y COMPARISON BY MONTH: 2011 VS 2010 AND 2009 (NOV)


Cum YTD sales: 2010

672676 1513264 2544081 3351901 4291219 5195076 6171117 7141120 8121192 9077975 10123882 10870396

Cum YTD sales 2011 & MAT Forecast

638749 1462683 2471585 3287922 4200506 5197006 6170010 7184949 8289826 9345495 10486743 11233257

% Change Cum YTD 2011 VS 2010

-0.050435871058280

6

-0.033425099652142

7

-0.028495948045679

3

-0.019087377580662

5

-0.021139214754595

3

0.000371505633411

262

-0.000179384056403

276

0.006137552652805

13

0.020764685775191

5

0.029469127200724

8

0.035842081130538

7

0.033380660649345

4

1,000,000

3,000,000

5,000,000

7,000,000

9,000,000

11,000,000

-3%

2%

Domestic Cement Sales: Cumulative YTD November 2011 vs 2010 and 2009(Source: Cement & Concrete Institute; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

To

nn

es

MAT FORECAST

Cu

mu

litiv

e %

C

ha

ng

e: Y

TD

2

01

1 v

s 2

01

0

18 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALESBY MONTH: 2011 VS 2010 AND 2009 (NOVEMBER)

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

1 100 000

1 200 000Ja

nuar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Ma

rch

Apr

il

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

obe

r

No

vem

ber

De

cem

ber

2011

2010

2009

SA Cementitious Monthly Sales Tons

19 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALESBY DAY: 2011 VS 2010 AND 2009 (NOVEMBER)

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

55 000Ja

nuar

y

Feb

ruar

y

Ma

rch

Apr

il

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

obe

r

No

vem

ber

De

cem

ber

2011

2010

2009

SA Cementitious Daily Average Sales Tons

20 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC TOTAL CEMENT SALESBY SECTOR: 2010

Building, 5,160,690, 47%Construction, 5,709,706,

53%

Domestic Cement Sales by Sector: 2010(Total = 10 870 396 Tonnes)

(Source: Cement and Concrete Institute, BMI BRSCU Workings)

21 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC BUILDING TOTAL CEMENT SALESBY APPLICATION: 2010

BUILDING INDUSTRY CEMENT MARKET BY APPLICATION : 2010TOTAL = 5160 690 TONNES

(Source: StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

- Roofing, 516,069, 10%

- Superstructure, 2,064,276, 40% - Walling, 2,064,276,

40%

- Foundations, 516,069, 10%

22 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC BUILDING TOTAL CEMENT SALESBY SECTOR: 2010

BUILDING INDUSTRY CEMENT MARKET BY SECTOR : 2010TOTAL CEMENT MARKET = 5 160 690 TONNES


TOTAL CEMENT IN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR,

2,804,375, 54%

TOTAL CEMENT IN NON RESIDENTIAL SECTOR,

2,356,315, 46%

TOTAL CEMENT IN NON RESIDENTIAL SECTOR TOTAL CEMENT IN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

23 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC BUILDING BULK CEMENT SALESBY SECTOR: 2010

BUILDING INDUSTRY BULK CEMENT MARKET BY SECTOR : 2010TOTAL = 2 375 893 TONNES


TOTAL BULK CEMENT IN NON RESIDENTIAL SECTOR, 1,084,807,

46%

TOTAL BULK CEMENT IN RESIDENTIAL

SECTOR, 1,291,086, 54%

24 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC BUILDING BAGGED CEMENT SALESBY SECTOR: 2010

BUILDING INDUSTRY BAGGED CEMENT MARKET BY SECTOR : 20102 784 797 TONNES


TOTAL RESIDENTIAL BAGGED CEMENT

MARKET, 1,513,289, 54%

TOTAL NON RESIDENTIAL BAGGED

CEMENT MARKET, 1,271,508, 46%

25 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC BUILDING TOTAL CEMENT SALESBY SECTOR: 2010

BUILDING INDUSTRY TOTAL CEMENT MARKET BY SECTOR : 20105 160 690 TONNES


TOTAL CEMENT IN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR,

2,804,375, 54%

TOTAL CEMENT IN NON RESIDENTIAL SECTOR,

2,356,315, 46%

26 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC TOTAL BUILDIUNG CEMENT SALESBY SUPPLIER: 2010

THE TOTAL BUILDING CEMENT MARKET BY SUPPLIER : 2010TOTAL = 5 160 690 TONNES

(Source: C&CI, StatsSA, BMI-BRSCU Workings)

- Imports/Other, 103,214, 2%

- Lafarge , 1,032,138, 20%

- PPC, 1,961,062, 38%

- Cimpor , 516,069, 10%

- Afrisam , 1,548,207, 30%

27 © BMI-BRSCU

CUM YTD DOMESTIC CEMENT SALESBY END USE SECTOR: 2011 (NOV)

Mining

C.P.M.

Readymix Producers

Resellers

Civil Construction

Building Construction

Blenders

Other

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

1.54%

13.45%

17.82%

49.02%

6.93%

4.20%

4.77%

2.26%

Domestic Cement Sales by End-use Sector: Cum YTD 2011 (November)(2011 MAT TOTAL = 11 233 257 Tonnes)


Total Sales for YTD 2010 (Nov) = 10 123 882 Tonnes

Total YTD Sales for 2011 (Nov)10 486 743 tonnes (+3,58%)

28 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES BY END USE SECTOR: CUM YTD 2011 VS 2010 (NOV)

0 500 000 1 000 000 1 500 000 2 000 000 2 500 000 3 000 000 3 500 000 4 000 000 4 500 000 5 000 000 5 500 000

Mining

C.P.M.

Readymix Producers

Resellers

Civil Construction

Building Construction

Blenders

Other

MiningC.P.M.ReadymixProducers

ResellersCivil ConstructionBuilding

ConstructionBlendersOther

YTD 2010 155 8021 364 1391 804 7204 963 318700 489426 071481 422227 921

YTD 2011 161 4231 410 2521 868 8365 140 869727 097440 863500 516236 887

Domestic Cement Sales by End-use Sector: Cum YTD 2011 vs 2010 (Nov)(Source: Cement and Concrete Institute, BMI BRSCU Workings)

Total Sales for YTD 2011 VS 2010 (Nov)

= + 3,58%

29 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES TO BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION BY END USE SECTOR: YTD 2011 (NOV)

Mining C.P.M.ReadymixProducers

ResellersCivil

ConstructionBuilding

ConstructionBlenders Other

Tonnes 161 423 1 410 252 1 868 836 5 140 869 727 097 440 863 500 516 236 887

Percentage 1.54% 13.45% 17.82% 49.02% 6.93% 4.20% 4.77% 2.26%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

0

200 000400 000

600 000

800 0001 000 000

1 200 0001 400 000

1 600 0001 800 000

2 000 000

2 200 0002 400 000

2 600 0002 800 000

3 000 0003 200 000

3 400 0003 600 000

3 800 000

4 000 0004 200 000

4 400 0004 600 000

Ton

nes

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES BY END USE TO BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION: YTD 2011 (Nov)(Total = 10 486 743 Tonnes)


30 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES TO BUILDINGBY END USE SECTOR: YTD 2011 (NOV)


ResellersCivil



Tonnes 12 107 148 076 280 325 4 498 261 145 419 352 691 150 155 26 653

Percentage 0.22% 2.64% 4.99% 80.15% 2.59% 6.28% 2.68% 0.47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2 000 000

2 200 000

2 400 000

2 600 000

2 800 000

3 000 000

3 200 000

3 400 000

3 600 000

3 800 000

4 000 000

4 200 000

Ton

nes

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES BY END USE TO THE BUILDING INDUSTRY: YTD 2011 (NOV)(Total = 5 612 348 Tonnes)


31 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES TO CONSTRUCTION BY END USE SECTOR: YTD 2011 (NOV)


ResellersCivil



Tonnes 149 316 1 262 175 1 588 511 642 609 581 678 88 173 350 361 210 233

Percentage 3.06% 25.89% 32.59% 13.18% 11.93% 1.81% 7.19% 4.31%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

Ton

nes

REGIONAL CEMENT SALES BY END USE TO THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: YTD 2011 (NOV) (Total = 4 874 395 Tonnes)


32 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: BAG AND BULK BY END USE SECTOR: YTD 2011 (NOV)


ResellersCivil



Bulk 72 640 1 269 227 1 775 394 0 690 743 264 518 400 412 141 941

Bags 88 782 141 025 93 442 5 140 869 36 355 176 345 100 103 94 946

0200 000400 000600 000800 000

1 000 0001 200 0001 400 0001 600 0001 800 0002 000 0002 200 0002 400 0002 600 0002 800 0003 000 0003 200 0003 400 0003 600 0003 800 0004 000 0004 200 0004 400 0004 600 0004 800 0005 000 0005 200 000

TO

NN

ES

DOMESTIC SALES OF BAG AND BULK CEMENT BY END USE: YTD 2011 (NOV) (TONNES)(TOTAL = 10 486 743 TONNES)


33 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: BAGBY END USE SECTOR: YTD 2011 (NOV)


ResellersCivil



Bags 1.51% 2.40% 1.59% 87.55% 0.62% 3.00% 1.70% 1.62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Axi

s T

itle

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES BY BAGS AND END USE SECTOR: YTD 2011 (NOV)(TOTAL = 5 871 868 TONNES)


34 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: BULKBY END USE SECTOR: YTD 2011 (NOV)


ResellersCivil



Bulk 1.57% 27.50% 38.47% 0.00% 14.97% 5.73% 8.68% 3.08%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES BY BULK AND END USE SECTOR: YTD 2011 (NOV)(TOTAL = 4 614 875 TONNES)


35 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: TONNES & PERCENTAGE BY PROVINCE: YTD 2011 (NOV)

1 158 306901 536

3 507 796

404 484 507 153

1 335 942

323 802 434 212745 172

193 179

975 160

11.0

5%

8.60

%

33.4

5%

3.86

%

4.84

%

12.7

4%

3.09

%

4.14

% 7.11

%

1.84

%

9.30

%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

LIM

PO

PO

MP

UM

AL

AN

GA

GA

UT

EN

G

FR

EE

ST

AT

E

NO

RT

HE

RN

KZ

N

SO

UT

HE

RN

KZ

N

EA

ST

ER

N C

AP

E

BO

RD

ER

/TR

AN

SK

EI

NO

RT

H W

ES

TP

RO

VIN

CE

NO

RT

HE

RN

CA

PE

WE

ST

ER

N C

AP

E

Ton

nes

*100

0

Domestic Cement Sales by Province: YTD 2011 (NOV)(Total = 10 486 743 Tonnes)


36 © BMI-BRSCU

BUILDING MATERIAL COSTS INREASINGwww.strategicforum.co.za

PRICE MOVEMENT OF CEMENT VS BUILDING AND CONSTR AND CPI: JAN 2002-JULY 2011(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ordinary and extended cement Building and Construction CPI


37 © BMI-BRSCU


PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) OF SELECTED BUILDING MATERIALS: JANUARY 2002- JULY 2011(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

90100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310320

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

Oct

ober

Nov

emD

ecem

Janu

ary

Feb

ruar

Mar

chA

pril

May

June

July

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bricks - Stock Bricks - Face Cement building blocks Aggregated crushed stone (as from 2/86) Cement (Retail) Sand Building construction : Building industries SA Pine, kiln dried Ordinary and extended cement CPI

CPI

Ordinary and Extended Cement

January 2000 = 100

SA Pine Kiln Dried


38 © BMI-BRSCU


Producer Price Index (PPI) by type of Material: July 2011 (January 2000 = 100)(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280290300310

SA Pine

, kiln

drie

d

Paints

Bricks

- Sto

ck

Bricks

- Fac

e

Cemen

t buil

ding

block

s

Sand

Aggre

gate

d cr

ushe

d sto

ne (a

s fro

m 2

/86)

Ordina

ry a

nd e

xtend

ed ce

men

t

Natur

al sto

ne, c

ut a

nd sa

wn

Glass,

for b

uildin

g ind

ustry

(as f

rom

1/9

3)

Gypsu

m b

oard

Drop

in ce

iling

tiles-

gyps

um

Drop

in ce

iling

tiles-

mas

onite

Flush

door

s

Draina

ge

Plumbin

g

Ceram

ic & e

ncau

stic w

all &

floor

tiles

& m

osaic

s

Wov

en N

eedle

Pun

ch C

arpe

ting

Ceiling

mat

erial

s

Partiti

oning

mat

erial

s

Sheet

, galv

anize

d

Cemen

t (Ret

ail)

Concr

ete

roof

tiles

Fibre

cem

ent r

oof s

heet

s

Coate

d pr

ofile

d GM

S shee

ting

Vinyl fl

oor t

iles

Vinyl s

heet

ing

Was

h an

d ba

sin

WC p

ans a

nd b

idets

Coppe

r pipe

s

Glass f

or th

e bu

ilding

indu

stry -

cut t

o siz

e

Buildin

g Boa

rds

Buildin

g an

d Con

struc

tion

Buildin

g In

dustr

ies

Civil E

ngine

ering CPI

Ind

ex

(20

00

= 1

00

)

CPI

Price doubling since January 2000Bricks

Cement


39 © BMI-BRSCU

DOMESTIC CEMENT SALES: TONNES & PERCENTAGE 2002-2010; 2011-2020 (LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO)

TOTAL CEMENT IN BUILDING: 2006-2010LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SOYUZ AND HIGH ROAD COLUMBUS SCENARIOS: 2011-2020

(Source: BMI-BRSCU Database)

8,54

2,11

6

7,82

2,53

6

7,03

9,42

3

5,92

0,20

1

5,16

0,69

0

5,22

6,43

1

5,11

7,64

8

5,21

5,85

6

5,35

6,20

8

5,50

7,60

6

5,81

3,72

4

6,18

6,26

8

6,58

2,77

5

6,51

9,39

2

6,12

2,98

9

8,54

2,11

6

7,82

2,53

6

7,03

9,42

3

5,92

0,20

1

5,16

0,69

0

5,57

3,54

5

5,92

5,66

6

6,49

5,86

1

6,83

1,14

2

7,30

9,32

1

7,82

0,97

4

8,13

3,81

3

8,45

9,16

5

8,54

3,75

7

8,62

9,19

5

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TO

NN

ES

40 © BMI-BRSCU


TOTAL CEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION: 2006-2010 HIGH ROAD MOTORWAY AND LOWER MIDDLE ROAD FREEWAY SCENARIOS: 2011-2020

(Source: BMI-BRSCU Database)

4,52

2,3

70

5,74

1,9

70 6,53

6,1

09

6,22

7,9

62

5,70

9,7

06

4,47

0,4

63

4,22

0,7

17

3,84

6,0

97

4,17

0,7

67

4,47

0,4

63

4,59

5,3

37

5,06

9,8

55

4,79

5,1

34

4,64

5,2

86

4,44

5,4

89

4,52

2,3

70

5,74

1,9

70 6,53

6,1

09

6,22

7,9

62

5,70

9,7

06

5,42

4,2

20

5,96

6,6

42

5,90

6,9

76 6,91

1,1

62

7,46

4,0

55

7,46

4,0

55

7,83

7,2

58

7,99

4,0

03

7,91

4,0

63

7,83

4,9

22

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TO

NN

ES

TOTAL CEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION (Lower Middle Road Scenario) TOTAL CEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION (High Road Scenario)

41 © BMI-BRSCU


TOTAL CEMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION: 2006-2010 LOWER MIDDLE ROAD VS HIGH ROAD SCENARIOS: 2011-2020


8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

22,000,000

24,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TO

NN

ES

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Afr

isam

(0,

4);

Cim

por

(0,6

)

PP

C S

K7

Upg

rade

(0,1

); P

PC

Mill

(0,

3)

Sep

haku

(2,

2)

PP

C (

0,7

Net

);C

ontin

enta

l (0,

6)

CAPACITY INCREASES (Mt/yr)

TOTAL CEMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION (LOWER MIDDLE ROAD SCENARIO)TOTAL CEMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION (HIGH ROAD SCENARIO)TOTAL CEMENT IN BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION (AT 218 KG PER CAPITA)Capacity (Million Tons/Year)PPC FORECAST: 2006-2015 (Deutsche Bank Presentation: July 2008)

cement sales ytd 2011

Business

bpp bc

building industry

local building lumber

domestic cement sales

total bc

residential buildings

total building shows

total building plans