center for disaster management and risk reduction technology kit – die kooperation von...

Center for Disaster Managementand Risk Reduction Technology

KIT – Die Kooperation von Forschungszentrum KarlsruheGmbH und Universität Karlsruhe (TH)

Center of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology –

CEDIM

Kathrin Poser, Friedemann Wenzel and CEDIM members

Vulnerability and disaster risk mapping workshop

Copenhagen, 02.07.2009


Overview

Who we are

What we do

• Risk Map Germany

• Megacity Istanbul

• Natural disasters under climate change

• Global earthquake model


CEDIM History

Interdisciplinary research centre dedicated to fundamental and applied research in the field of disaster management

Founded in 2002 as a cooperation between the University of Karlsruhe and the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ)

Joined in 2007 by Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe

More than 30 scientist from 15 different research units


CEDIM Mission

• To advance the science of natural and man-made hazards assessment and develop disaster management solutions for early detection and reduction of risk

• create scientific knowledge, technologies and intelligent tools for risk assessment and analysis, risk management and risk communication

• co-operate closely with national risk and crisis managing agencies

• contribute to key international challenges such as the impact of disasters on megacities and under climate change conditions

• communicate experience into the academic sector with the aim of mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in education


Partners and key expertise

Engineering: Structural, Electrical, Mechanical, Communication Economic Engineering Logistics EngineeringGeological Hazards Water Ressource Management

Meteorology and Climate Research Decision Support Sustainability AnalysisEmergency Medicine

Geological HazardsFlood Risk Early Warning Systems Satellite TechnologyGeoinformation Management


Hazard, vulnerability and risk

Merz and Thieken (2004)


Classification of disaster impacts

Material damage

direct indirect

tangible intangible tangible intangible

Psychological damage

Migration

Business interruptions

Traffic interruptions

Fatalities

Pollution

Casualties

Disaster impacts


Topics 2003-2008

Risk Map Germany

Earthquake

Flood

Winter storm

Man-made hazards

Asset estimation

Infrastructures

Megacity Instanbul

Earthquake hazard analysis (tectonic model, microzonation, recent and historic seismicity analysis)

Vulnerability and risk (indirect damages, remotely sensed detection of building vulnerability, indicators for socio-economic vulnerability)


Risk Map Germany

Nation-wide quantification of risk for the natural hazards winter storm, flood and earthquake as well as for man-made hazards

Methods to determine and compare the risks on a common spatial scale (municipalities)

Quantifying direct tangible losses (damage to residential buildings)


Risk Map Germany

Hazard modelling

• Winter storm: Gust speed (m/s) for return periods 2-500 years

• Earthquake: Macroseismic intensity (EMS98) for return period 475 years

• Flood: Inundation depth (m) for return period 200/300 years

Vulnerability modelling

• Damage ratio as a function of hazard

• Using building characteristics

Thieken et al. (2009)


Risk Map Germany

Asset estimation

• Disaggregation of population

• Estimation of residential building stock

• Estimation of industrial building stock

Presentation

• Web-based information system: RiskExplorer Germany (http://www.cedim.de/riskexplorer.php)


Risk Map Germany – risk comparison Saxony

Harmonization of data, methods and return periods

Thieken et al. (2009)


Megacity Istanbul

Stress Field Modelling

Local site effects

Fragility and vulnerability

• Remote sensing• Land cover• Building density• Building height• Type of roof• Age of buildings

• Building classification

• Vulnerability curves for building types

Socio-Economic Impacts

Hergert (2008), Münich (2008)


Impact FactorPhysical Risk

DescriptorUrban Seismic

Risk Index

Physical DamageHuman Losses

Social FragilityLack of Resilience

Megacity Instanbul: Urban Disaster Risk Index


Megacity Istanbul

Using Indicators for Risk Communication and Decision Making

Validation with Expert Group

• Interactively analyzing indicators to define importance weights (dynamic sensitivity tool in LDW)

• Analyzing indicators for soundness and usability

Implementation with Stakeholders

• Managing and organizing a group of target stakeholders in workshops to discuss the outcomes of the MIS.

• Aim: stakeholders take ownership of the indicator model and use it in periodic evaluations of the city’s risk

Khazai (2009)


Topics 2008-2010

Natural Disasters under Climate Change Conditions

Floods under Climate Change

Vulnerability

• Infrastructure Networks

• Agriculture

• Industry

Monitoring of Global Risk

Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

Earthquake Model Germany

Central Asia

India

Methods

Modelling

Remote Sensing

Indicators

Data Mining

…


Regional flood hazard in a changing climate

Objectives

• Quantify change of flood hazard characteristics and flood risk in small to medium size catchments in a changing climate

• Including estimate of uncertainty

Method

• Combine regional climate models driven by global models with regional/local hydrological models and observations

Schädler et al. (2008)


Regional flood hazard in a changing climate

Three typical river systems (Ammer, Mulde, Ruhr)

30 years control time series (1971-2000), 30 years prognosis for 2030-2060)

Evaluation of continuous time series modelled with

• 2 regional climate models (COSMO-CLM, WRF/MM5) with a resolution <10km, forced by different global climate models

• 3 rainfall-runoff models

Schädler et al. (2008)


Vulnerability: Indicators

Khazai et al. (2008)


Vulnerability: Indirect tangible loss

Vulnerability indicators for the industrial sector

Merz et al. (2008)


Vulnerability: Infrastructure

Hot Spot Map

Relative Risk Index

Schulz et al. (2007)

Analysis of criticality of road sections

Overlay with hazard maps

Hot spots


Global Risk Assessment: Global earthquake model

Zschau (2008)


KIT – Die Kooperation von Forschungszentrum KarlsruheGmbH und Universität Karlsruhe (TH)

Thank you for your attention!

www.cedim.de

center for disaster management and risk reduction technology kit – die kooperation von...

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