Certificates: Findings from National Research and Implications for Indiana

Brian Bosworth, FutureWorks November 16, 2011

Some Quick Definitions

Certificates: • Postsecondary awards, not degrees, indicating completion of discrete

program of study or series of courses with specific occupational focus. • Sometimes tied to licensing; sometimes not. • Lengths: short-term (<30 hours) and long -term (>than 30 hours)• There are state and national reporting systems; decent data on

production but not on stock.

Certifications: • Credentials awarded by third party, standard-setting bodies (not

academic institutions), based on assessment process that recognizes competencies in a particular occupational specialty as measured against set of standards usually set through an industry-wide process. • Sometimes require academic certificate; usually not.• No state or national reporting; no good data on production or stock.

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Certificates: Major Findings

• About 970,00 certificates produced in 2010 –– 54 percent short-term, 46 percent long-term.

• Big concentration in healthcare –– about 44 percent. Other programs (STEM, business, manufacturing, personal services) increasing numbers but not share.

• Healthcare concentration contributes to a big gender imbalance –– two-thirds of certificates go to women.

• Especially important for Black and Hispanic students who receive 33 percent of long-term certificates versus only 20 percent of all postsecondary degrees.

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Certificates: More Big Findings

• Huge variation in production from state to state and within states, little to do with differences in labor market.

• Leading states produce 10 or even 15 times as many long-term certificates per capita as do the laggards –– without necessarily sacrificing associate degree production.

• Solid evidence that students complete certificate programs at significantly higher rate than they complete degree programs, even controlling for length.

• Some states do a good job of assessing labor market returns to certificates of varying lengths and programs of study –– not clear that Indiana is among them.

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Certificates: Labor Market Returns

• National and state level research shows consistent and strong returns to long-term certificates of at least 30 semester hours.

• Same research shows negligible returns to short-term certificates of less than 30 semester hours.

• Field of study important: healthcare certificates (>1-year) have highest return, followed by engineering technology, construction, mechanic and repair; not so much in education or personal services.

• Some state-level research shows higher returns to average long-term certificate than to average associate degree.

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How to Understand Apparent Value of Longer Certificates Relative to Shorter Ones

• Shorter programs might be useful to “insert” new skills for those already launched in career with trajectory and traction, but seldom appropriate to build foundation or platform for career entry – just not enough time and instructional space.

• Certificate programs of >30 hours pay off because the program length allows greater technical and academic rigor, with wider and deeper range of occupationally relevant skill development than is possible in short-term programs.

•More applied math and language skills•More development of workplace knowledge & behaviors

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“Stackable Certificates”• Theory: Let’s increase short-term awards to provide more

opportunities for completion to students who cannot endure long pathways to higher attainment –– offering students short-term certificates loosely linked in a career pathway will reward short bursts of periodic commitment.

• Regrettably, there is no evidence that students are indeed stacking these certificates or that they will.

• Most studies of student persistence suggest low-income and working adult students see “one shot” at a postsecondary credentials. Probability is that students will get small packet of narrow skills that don’t represent a career platform –– and they will never come back.

• Alternative: Change the structure of programming to drive more intensive pursuit of more substantive credentials. 7

National Trends in Certificate Production: All Postsecondary Sectors

1990 200010-Year Increase

201010-Year Increase

Short-Term 91,515 223, 694 144% 510,410 128%

Long-Term 136,738 261,142 90% 458,305 76%

Total 228,484 484,836 112% 968,715 100%

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National Trends in Certificate Production: Community Colleges Only

1990 200010-Year Increase

201010-Year Increase

Short-Term 58,511 79,932 37% 226,033 183%

Long-Term 84,450 91,343 7% 139,743 53%

Total 143,961 171,275 19% 365,776 114%

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Big National Trend: From Long-Term to Short-Term

• Community colleges are stepping back from long-term certificates with big labor market pay-off in favor of short-term certificates with little labor market pay-off.

• In 1990, community colleges produced 61 percent of all long –term certificates. But in 2010, community colleges accounted for only 30 percent of all long–term certificates.

• In 1990, 59 percent of all certificates produced by community colleges were for long-term programs. But by 2010, only 38 percent were for long-term programs.

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Indiana Trends in Certificate Production: All Postsecondary Sectors

1990 2000 2010

Short-Term 744 624 3,500

Long-Term 3694 3,545 6,571

Total 4,438 4,179 10,071

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Indiana Trends in Certificate Production: Community Colleges Only

1990 2000 2010

Short-Term

0 0 550

Long-Term

1,718 1,389 2,253

Total 1,718 1,389 2,803

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Big Trends in Indiana

• Just as for U.S. as a whole, IN community colleges increasingly ceded responsibility for long-term certificate production to other sectors of postsecondary education.

• In 1990, IN community colleges accounted for 47 percent of all long–term certificates (admittedly small base). By 2010, the community college share had dropped to 34 percent (slightly above the national rate).

• On a per capita basis, IN is well below the national average in long-term certificate production (both for all sectors and for community colleges only).

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Implications?

• For Indiana, long-term certificate programs offer big up-side potential (with little down-side risk) to increase postsecondary completions with labor market value.

• Moving to average of top 5 states in long-term certificate production would mean a 250 % increase –– over 5,600 more certificates with solid labor market value.

• Low-income and minority youth and working adults not having success in traditional pathways to degrees can find success in certificate programs and, with more intentional approach to design and expansion of long-term certificate awards, they could find still more success

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Recommendations

• Count long-term certificates toward state and college attainment goals.

• Set ambitious targets for expansion of certificate programming and for number of awards.

• Engage best practice employers in identifying desired outcome competencies.

• Create “intentional” program structures that propel students to completion (e.g., cohort enrollment, block scheduling, embedded remediation).

• Promote consistency within and among colleges, align certificate programs with degree programs, and assure aggressive external oversight.

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Certificates: Findings from Research and Implications for Indiana

Brian Bosworth, FutureWorks October 13, 2011