The Regional and Urban Numerical Weather Prediction and Operational Long Range Plan of the Meteorological Service of CanadaDr. Gilbert BrunetMeteorological Research Branch

Meteorological Service of CanadaEnvironnment Canada

Challenges in Urban Meteorology: A Forum for Users and Providers21 September 2004Aknowledgement: Desgagn, Blair, Mailhot and Roch

Outline of the talkWho we are

Multi-scale meteorological modeling

Numerical weather prediction now, in one year and ten years:Two examples of importance for urban area-Hurricanes- Urban meteorology and air quality

Future R&D challenges

Who we areCanadian Meteorological Centre and Meteorological Research Branch is theCanadian equivalent to US NOAA NWS NCEP and US Navy FNMOC for numerical weather predictionCanadian equivalent to LLNL NARAC for multi-scale atmospheric transport and dispersion modelingEquivalent centres within the World Meteorological Organization : Washington (USA), Bracknell (UK), Toulouse (FR), Melbourne (AU), Tokyo (JP)

Uniform resolution Variable resolution Hydrostatic Nonhydrostatic Global Limited-area Distributed memory--------------------------------- 3D Var Data Assimilation 4D Var Data Assimilation Ensemble Kalman Filter Operational forecast Emergency response Volcanic ash Air quality Stratospheric ozone Wave model Coupling to oceanographic simulations etc

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Regional Climate Model

Regional and Mesoscale Forecast

( 24-48 h, 10-24 km )

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Data assimilation

Multi- Seasonal Forecast

Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Forecasting & Modelling System

2004-2014

Limited-Area Model

0-24h 1-4km

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Data assimilation

Ensemble Forecast

TIME SCALE

Monthly Forecast

Middle Atmosphere Model

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Data assimilation

Medium-range Forecast

( 240 h, 10 to 100 km )

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Data assimilation

Micro-meteorology

(10m-1km)

Hurricane Juan28 September 2003HalifaxHurricane climatologyImproving Hurricane Forecasting

Grid of GEM for global Numerical weather Prediction (33 km horizontal resolution)

Instantaneous precipitation rate (mm/hr) for the Operational GEM modelA 5 day animation (20/01/2002 to 25/01/2002) (HR=100km, TR=45 min.)

Instantaneous precipitation rate (mm/hr) for the Meso-Global GEM modelA 5 day animation (20/01/2002 to 25/01/2002) (HR=33km, TR= 15 min.)

25 time more powerful than the IBM cluster at the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC)

Available in 5~10 years from now at CMC

Canada-Japan Collaboration

Tropical PhaseClass2 HurricaneET Phase985 hPa964 hPaSeptember 1998: Classified as a very active TC periodModelling the Full Lifecycle ofHurricane Earl (Sept 1998)at 1km Resolution with MC2 Model (Canadian equivalent to US MM5)

-Humidity at 350m height is shown over Gulf of Mexico for the first 12 hours of the simulation.-Only 1% of the simulation domain is shown!

REPRESENTATION of URBAN SURFACES in Meteorological Service of Canada ATMOSPHERIC MODELSFrom CCRS

RPNOperational Representation of Urban Surfaces at the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC): New OpportunitiesIn the higher resolution convective scale models that are on the verge of being operationally implemented at CMC, it will become increasingly important to correctly represent physical processes over urban surfaces. This is not the case in the short and medium-range weather forecast systems currently operational at CMC, in which even large urban areas (e.g., 50 km x 25 km) would have a negligible impact on the atmospheric circulations produced by the models.GLOBAL medium-range forecasts ~ 100 kmUrban area does not even covera single grid point of the model ! REGIONAL short-range forecasts ~ 25 kmUrban area covers 2 model gridpoints. LOCAL convective scale models ~ 1 kmUrban area covers a largenumber of points (50x25=1250)

As the resolution increase, you need to consider new details such as.What you need is more thana high resolution topographyNeed to develop a new Physics parameterizationscheme (Town EnergyBudget or TEB, details in the surface characteristics e.g.heat, momentum and moisturefluxes)

RPNThe Joint Urban 2003 ExperimentAtmospheric dispersion study28 June to 31 July 2003Include the following meteorological measurements:22 surface met stations6 surface energy budget stations2 CTI windtracer lidars2 radiosonde systems4 wind profiler/RASS systems1 FM-CW radar3 ceilometers9 sodars

+ Oklahoma mesonet+ NEXRAD radars of the US weather service

RPNOther Cases and CollaborationsAssessment of role and impact of TEB in Canadian urban environments:For example:Cold weather cases with snow (e.g., Montreal in January)Other cases: opportunity to use the Multi-city Urban Hydro-meteorological dataset (MUHB) with Prof. Tim Okes group at U. British-ColombiaDevelopping an operational system for Vancouver in view of the 2010 Winter Olympics.

GEM is an ideal tool for multi-scale atmospheric transport and dispersion problems, including urban scale

Urban atmospheric transport and dispersion toolsWe have started a project based on GEM to develop and validate an integrated, state-of-the-art, high-fidelity multi-scale modeling system for the accurate and efficient prediction of urban flow and dispersion of CBRN materials. Development of this proposed multi-scale modeling system will provide the real-time modeling and simulation tool to predict injuries, casualties, and contamination and to make relevant decisions to minimize the consequences based on a pre-determined decision making framework.

ConclusionFor 2004-2005 the R&D strategy in collaboration with CMC, regional weather services and Canadian Universities

Global NWP with a MESOGLOBAL GEM (35km) with a lid at the stratopause (.1mb) with the Regional GEM physics package

A 4D-Var data assimilation system with increasing new asynoptic and satellite data

An Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) will be delivered with a comprehensive physics and initial condition perturbations approach- A comprehensive unified EPS R&D and operational Long Range Plan has bee initiated with the National Weather Service. Ribbon Tying Ceremony 16-18 November, 2004, NCEP, Camp Springs

ConclusionImproved our Regional (15km-10km) and Local (3km-1km) NWP system with applications to urban area problems

Collaborating with CMC, REGIONS and Canadian Universities and other partners for Environmental Prediction (coupling GEM with chemistry, hydrology and ocean)

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