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25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz 1
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content
• shifts, trends & changing labour markets
• skills mismatch
• global mobility & migration
• labour market Hungary: state of play & prospects
• attracting, retenting & employer branding
• conclusion & discussion
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The main shifts impacting the world of work
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What does this new environment bring to the world of work?
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migration & urbanization
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Employers see the drivers of change both in technological developments…
Source: World Economic Forum, Future of jobs (2016)
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…as in demographic and socio-economic developments
Source: World Economic Forum, Future of jobs (2016)
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Changing labour market: towards job polarization… job creation in high- AND low- income occupations
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Job creation, destruction and the squeezed middle
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Followed by regional polarization… fast-growing tech-hubs versus lagging periphery
Source: Randstad, Flexibility@work 2016
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Destandardization: companies use a wide variety of workforce solutions
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The employment & recruitment industry provides a full range of workforce solutions
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Reducing undeclared work & unemployment
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Agency work ranks high on job quality
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THE FUTURE OF WORK: A DIVERSITY OF DECENT EMPLOYMENT RELATIONS!
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The Future of Work: a discussion seized by all international policymakers
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Employers & the Future of Work: shaping the discussion as a thought leader!
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Randstad Flexibility@work 2016: Future of Work in the digital age
IOE White Paper on Understanding the Future of Work
W.E.C. White Paper on the Future of Work
Randstad research report on global mobility & migration
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The Future of Work will disrupt skills
Source: World Economic Forum, Future of jobs (2016)
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Skill shortages in the European Union 35 million new high-skilled workers are needed in the coming years as a result of expansion and aging
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-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
elementary occupations
plant and machine operators and assemblers
craft and related trades workers
skilled agricultural and fishery workers
service workers and shop and market sales workers
clerks
technicians and associate professionals
professionals
legislators, senior officials and managers
low-skilled
medium-skilled
high-skilled
European Union: job demand towards 2025 (in millions)
expansion demand replacement demand
Source: Own calculations based on CEDEFOP, forecasting skill demand and supply
25-4-2017
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What skills will make a valued worker in 2020?
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And what does talent want?
22
Lifelong learning opportunities
Virtual mobility
Positive country brand
High level of freedom of mind
Inspiring working environment
Diversity
Accessible talent borders
The ‘Perfect employer Inc.’
Skill recognition institutions
Source: Flexibility@work2015 25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz
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Where is this talent: the global mismatch the skills are available, but not on the right location
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‘people to jobs, jobs to people’ research on global mobility and labor migration commissioned by Randstad from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics
contents: • what moves talent?
• projecting developments in
labor supply and demand
• jobs to people? – assessing firm location choice behaviour
• key messages
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What moves talent? global high-skilled talent chooses country of destination based on high wages, use of English and low taxes
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pull factors country of destination high-skilled impact
high average wage ++
English speaking ++
low tax-rates +
high unemployment benefits =
rigid employment protection -
union density -
high minimum wage -
25-4-2017
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Key take-aways ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’
• people to jobs - skill specific demands coherent migration policies that account for skill-specific demands by the national economy, ease labor shortages and lead to substantial benefits on growth and employment
• size and composition - good institutions national institutions have important effects on the size and the composition of the migrant population; policymakers have strong incentives to create “good” institutions to attract or retain skilled and productive migrant workers in an increasingly global market
• jobs to people - offshoring activities access to qualified personnel already serves as a key determinant of firms’ decision to offshore activities; increased offshoring rather than relocation serves as firms’ more common behavioral response to skill shortages
The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz 26 25-4-2017
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Conclusions & recommendations
for a new migration-based economy to take hold, the present, outdated infrastructure for managing migration will need to be totally re-designed
• a balanced skill-related system
it should include a robust and flexible framework, with clearly defined immigration categories and objective eligibility criteria to spur innovation, fill skills gaps and promote development
• consult business
employers are in the best position to determine the skills and business models they need to effectively achieve their objectives, and governments therefore need to actively consult with them
• business advocacy
businesses should play a prominent role in advocating fair and open migration policies, identifying policy challenges and emphasizing the benefits of well-managed migration
The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz 27 25-4-2017
labour market Hungary: state of play & prospects
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Participation total
29
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1998Q
1
2000Q
1
2002Q
1
2004Q
1
2006Q
1
2008Q
1
2010Q
1
2012Q
1
2014Q
1
2016Q
1
%
Participation rate all age group 15-64 yr
EU 28
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
United Kingdom
25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1998Q
1
2000Q
1
2002Q
1
2004Q
1
2006Q
1
2008Q
1
2010Q
1
2012Q
1
2014Q
1
2016Q
1
%
Participation rate women age group 15-64 yr
EU 28
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
United Kingdom
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Participation young
30
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1998Q
1
2000Q
1
2002Q
1
2004Q
1
2006Q
1
2008Q
1
2010Q
1
2012Q
1
2014Q
1
2016Q
1
%
Participation rate young age group 15-24 yr
EU 28
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
United Kingdom
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998Q
1
2000Q
1
2002Q
1
2004Q
1
2006Q
1
2008Q
1
2010Q
1
2012Q
1
2014Q
1
2016Q
1
%
Participation rate 55+ age group 55-64 yr
EU 28
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
United Kingdom
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Labour force trends demographics
Changes in working-age population and labour force by age, 2013-25, Hungary (%)
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Demographics and participation in Hungary take-aways
• Hungary’s working-age population is forecast to fall by about 1%-2% between now and 2025.
• On the other hand the number of elderly (65+) is forecast to grow with 20%, putting pressure on funding pensions and health care
• Increase of participation in Hungary is needed and happening
• Participation still below EU average but catching up fast in all categories: women, youth and 55+
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Employment outlook
Past and forecast employment, Hungary (millions)
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Sector developments
Employment trends by sector, average annual growth rate, 2003-25, Hungary (%)
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Skills prospects
Total job opportunities by qualification, 2013-25, Hungary (thousands)
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Labour force trends skills
Labour supply trends by qualifications, labour force age 15+, Hungary (and EU) (%)
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Forecast labor market Hungary towards 2025: take-aways
• Employment is rising slowly. In 2025 there will be only 50.000 more jobs than at present
• All employment growth will be concentrated in services and the public sector. Agriculture and manufacturing will even face a decrease while jobs in construction and transport will remain stable.
• The amount of jobs requiring high qualifications (managers, professionals and technicians) will expand in the next decade. Demand for medium and low-skilled workers will be limited to replacing the aging workforce
• The challenge for employers is finding and retaining the right talent
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Why employer branding matters
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4 steps to get the most of your employer brand
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What do Hungarian workers want? most important factors looked for in an employer
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Different profiles, different needs demographic differences
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How do employers perform on important attributes? What candidates are seeking vs what employers score best on
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conclusion & discussion
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To conclude: the Future of Work …
• will lead us into a service-oriented economy, creating jobs that currently not exists, but that are non-routine based;
• is impacted by demographic change that is driven by an ageing society, resulting in the need of 35 mio high-skilled workers in Europe by 2050;
• needs active labour market policies to ensure that untapped potential can contibute to higher particpation rates leading to an inclusive and sustainable labour market;
• welcomes well-regulated migration to contribute to an competitive and agile economy
• provides opportunities for employer branding which will become increasingly important in the war for talent
what is needed to achieve this? 44 25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz
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The Future of Work: The 3 key solutions provided by our industry
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Thank you!
Q&A
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The Future of Work for competitive countries
Ease migration
Extend the talent pool
Increase employability
Develop a talent
framework
Introduce a dynamic labor
market
Checklist Create a decent flexible labor market
with variation in contracts Modernize social security arrangements Project talent supply and demand
Understand what talent wants Invest in education Target the young, blue collar and/or
migration background
Discover women and older employees Adapt retirement policies Increase day-care opportunities to allow
on- and off-ramping of parents
Create life-long cross-sectoral learning institutions
Build PPPs with private sector
Facilitate free flow of remittance Mutual skill recognition Ease skilled migration policies
47 25-4-2017 The Future of Work by Annemarie Muntz