changing age structures and sustainable development in youthful … · 2017. 4. 11. · dividend...
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Changing age structures and sustainable development in youthful societies
Eliya Msiyaphazi Zulu, PhD
Presented at the UN Commission on Population and Development Fiftieth session, 3-7 April 2017, New York
The World has witnessed phenomenal transition from high to low birth and death rates, shaping today and future population dynamics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1960 - 1965 1975 - 1980 1990 - 1995 2005 - 2010 2020 - 2025 2035 - 2040 2050 - 2055 2065 - 2070
Trends in Number of births and deaths per 1000 people - World
World Crude Death Rate World Crude Birth Rate
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Because of its slower demographic transition Africa has a younger population that is growing faster than populations of Asia and Latin America
Asia Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960 -1965
1975 -1980
1990 -1995
2005 -2010
2020 -2025
2035 -2040
2050 -2055
2065 -2070
Crude Death Rate Crude Birth Rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960 -1965
1975 -1980
1990 -1995
2005 -2010
2020 -2025
2035 -2040
2050 -2055
2065 -2070
Crude Death Rate Crude Birth Rate
05
1015202530354045
1960-
1965
1975-
1980
1990-
1995
2005-
2010
2020-
2025
2035-
2040
2050-
2055
2065-
2070
Crude Death Rate Crude Birth Rate
Latin America
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
Percentage distribution of the populations of Africa, Asia and Latin America by age group, 1970 to 2050
44 41 32
41
24 18
43
26 17
19 19
18
19
16
12
19
17
12
34 36
44
37
52
51
35
49
51
3 3 6 3 8
18
4 8
19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 2015 2050 1970 2015 2050 1970 2015 2050
Africa Asia Latin America & Caribbean
65+
25-64
15-24
0-14
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
The share of people in each age group affects development needs and prospects
Source: Eloundou, 2015
As the South Korea example shows, there is a limited time period to take advantage of a youth bulge before it turns into an old-population bulge
3 2 1 1 2 3
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+Male Female
2010
3 2 1 1 2 3
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+ Female
1955
Male
3 2 1 1 2 3
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Male Female
2050
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Most populations in sub-Saharan Africa are dominated by children and youth, creating both challenges and opportunities for development
12 9 6 3 0 3 6 9 12
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Male Female
Malawi 2015
12 9 6 3 0 3 6 9 12
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Male Female
Zambia 2013
12 9 6 3 0 3 6 9 12
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Female
Senegal 2015
Male
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Populations in Southern and Northern Africa are older than the rest of sub-Saharan Africa due to steady fertility declines
12 9 6 3 0 3 6 9 12
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Male Female
Botswana 2011
Botswana South Africa Tunisia
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
6 3 0 3 6
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Female
Tunisia, 2015
Male
6 3 0 3 6
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Female
South Africa, 2015
Male
Asia: Some countries in Asia have had slow demographic transitions than the rest of the region, exhibiting no clear youth bulges yet
9 6 3 0 3 6 9
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Female
Tajikistan, 2015
Male
9 6 3 0 3 6 9
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Male Female
Pakistan, 2015
9 6 3 0 3 6 9
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Male Female
Phillipies, 2015
TFR=3.0
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Latin America: The clear youth bulge seen in Brazil is not as distinct in Bolivia and Argentina
9 6 3 0 3 6 9
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Male Female
Brazil, 2015
TFR=1.8
9 6 3 0 3 6 9
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Male Female
Bolivia, 2015
TFR=3.04
9 6 3 0 3 6 9
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Male Female
Argentina, 2015
TFR=2.3
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Consumption and Labor Income by Age, Nigeria 2004
Labor income (500 trillion Naira) Consumption (500 trillion Naira)
Source: National Transfer Accounts estimates (www.ntaccounts.org) - Mason 2012
Economic needs of children are enormous: about 80% of total
labor income.
Labor surplus is less than 20% .
Shortfall is met by relying on: Natural resources
Remittances Other asset income.
Little remains for saving and
investment.
Labor income (3000 trillion won) Consumption (3000 trillion won)
Consumption and Labor Income by Age, S Korea 2000
Source: National Transfer Accounts estimates (www.ntaccounts.org) - - Mason 2012
Child deficit is very small in S Korea: about 35% of
labor income.
Working age surplus is about 30% of total
labor income.
S Korea is investing asset income.
SOURCE: Mason, 2012
There is a strong negative association between fertility and the level of human capital spending
Source: Mason et al. 2016
The window of opportunity for harnessing the demographic dividend opened in Botswana, Swaziland, and Namibia around 1990
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Sup
po
rt R
atio
Botswana Namibia SwazilandSource: NTA Modelling Estimates by AFIDEP, UCT, UNFPA
Support Ratios
The first demographic dividend has already peaked in Botswana, and it will peak in the next 10-20 years in Namibia, and Swaziland in the next decade
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Rat
e o
f ch
ange
of
the
sup
po
rt r
atio
(p
erce
nt)
Botswana
Namibia
Swaziland
Source: NTA Modelling Estimates
So, what can be done to optimize linkages between youthful populations and
sustainable development?
Prioritize family planning and address all barriers of access and use of contraception to eliminate unplanned pregnancies and reduce fertility
% of Married women using modern FP and those with unmet need for FP in Africa
Source: DHS Comparative Reports, 2014
56
46
28
9
11
17
25
31
32
38
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
North Africa
Southern Africa
East Africa
West Africa
Middle Africa
Currently Using Modern FP Unmet Need for Modern FP
Reform education systems to prioritise transferable skills, innovation, science and technology, and entrepreneurship
18
©Albert Gonzalez Farran/UNAMID
Embrace universal secondary education and increase access to tertiary education to unleash the power of youth in driving socioeconomic transformation
33
58
71 76 77
91
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Middle East & North Africa Latin America & Carribean East Asia & Pacific North America
% o
f re
leva
nt
age
gro
up
Source: World Bank, WDI, 2017
Secondary school Net Enrollment Rates (2014)
Adopt policies of zero tolerance to teenage marriages and childbearing in regions where this remains a challenge like in West, Middle, and East Africa
% of women aged 20-24 who got married by age 15 and 18
42% 41% 42%
17%
6%
12% 11%
17%
1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Middle Africa East Africa West Africa North Africa Southern Africa
Married by Age 18 Married by Age 15
Step-up on-going interventions to reduce child mortality to enhance fertility decline and improve life expectancy at birth
Source: UN Population Prospect: 2015 Revision
113
98
68
44
35
47
47
38
27
27
11
35
21
21
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Middle Africa
Western Africa
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
Northern Africa
South-Central Asia
Southern Asia
Central Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Western Asia
Eastern Asia
Caribbean
Central America
South America
Afr
ica
Asi
a
Lat
in A
me
rica
and
th
eC
arib
bea
n
Deaths per 1000 live births
Under-five Mortality Rate (2015-2020)
Enhance capacity to generate quality jobs and livelihoods for the current work force and upcoming working-age bulge to optimize inclusive sustainable development
Country Unemployment Rate
% in Informal Sector
Mozambique 22.5% 85%
Tanzania 11.7% 87.7
Uganda 6.8% 80%
Zambia 7.9% 70%
Source: National demographic dividend study reports
Efforts to enhance economic productivity of youthful populations should focus on empowering women to get into employment and other stable livelihoods outside the home
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Age
NTA – Labour Income and Consumption - Senegal
YL Female
YL Male
C
CFA
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Ho
urs
pe
r w
ee
k Age
NTTA + NTA – Time Use including unpaid domestic labour
YL Female
YL Male
Source: CREFAT 2016
DD Profiling
Desk reviews and data analysis, inclusing
modelling
Evidence translation
Advocacy to get
buy-in from all sectors
Policy Declaration
National DD Strategy/Roadmap
Define long terms goals & strategies
Identify game-changer policies and programs
Planning and budget allocation
• Embed DD actions in development planning, M&E & budgeting processes
Implementation & Oversight
Pilot & scale up programmes
Monitoring & Evaluation
Accountability
Youthful countries should strategically mainstream demographic dividend principles in national and sub-national development plans and budgeting processes to move from rhetoric to Action
“Leaving No One Behind” for youthful populations means prioritizing investments in people – the demographic dividend
