Impact of vehicle emissions

on air quality in Mexico

Kate Blumberg

ITF, SEDEMA, CAF

Strategies for Mitigating Air Pollution January 18 & 19, 2017

Mexico City, Mexico

Health assessment of on-road sector for Mexico Potential to reduce impact on air pollution and mortality

On-road emissions concerns Diesel NOx

Flawed European type approval process

Higher evaporative emissions with Euro standards

Options for city to improve emissions Improving I&M

Eliminating LDV diesels

Strengthening the regulatory program (including emissions limits, certification, enforcement, durability, etc) has by far the greatest impact

Outline

Health impact

assessment

Potential benefits of

on-road vehicle

standards

Approach overview for health assessment

Source Emissions Concentration Health Effects

Vehicle

Activity

Control Scenario

1) Sulfur content

2) LDV emission standards

3) HDV emission standards

Base Scenario

Sensitivity Analysis

1) LDV only Tier 2 and 30ppm

2) No Added Deterioration for

Tier 2 & 3

3) Nationwide I&M program

Urban Air

Quality

Premature

Mortality

and

Morbidity

Detailed on-road emissions

generated for each pollutant,

month and municipio

• Vehicle activity for

typical weekdays

and weekends

• 2,457 municipios

• Base year 2008

MOVES-Mexico CMAQ BenMAP

ERG UTennessee INECC

El mundo ha notado: se mueve hacia Euro VI

NOM 044 Norma para vehículos pesados equivalente a US2010 o Euro VI

NOM 042 Norma para vehículos ligeros equivalente a los Estados Unidos Tier 2 y Tier 3, incluyendo emisiones del escape y emisiones evaporativa

NOM 016 Diésel de 15 ppm de azufre Gasolina de 10 ppm de azufre

Las normas de las mejores

prácticas para México se requiería:

Euro-equivalent standard

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Year of Implementation (all sales & registrations)

HD

V (

die

se

l)

US

Canada

Japan

EU

S. Korea

Turkey

Mexico

Australia

Brazil

Russia

China

India

LD

V (

ga

so

lin

e)

US

Canada

Japan

EU

S. Korea

Turkey

Mexico

Australia

Brazil

Russia

China

India

US 2010/Euro VI (proposed)

US 2010

US 2010

PNLTES

Euro VI

Euro VI

Euro VI

China VI (proposed)

Bharat VI

P-7

Euro V/US07/JE05

Euro V

Euro V

Euro V

Euro V

China V

US 2004/Euro IV

Euro IV/US04/JE05

Euro IV

Euro IV

Euro IV

China IV

Bharat IV

P-5

Euro III

China III

Bharat III

Tier 3 (phase-in)

Tier 3 (phase-in)

Tier 3

Tier 3

China 6b

Tier 2

Tier 2

PNLT

Euro 6 & RDE intermediate Euro 6 & RDE final

Euro 6

Euro 6

Euro 6

China 6a

CARB NMOG

Bharat 6

L-6

Full Euro 5

Euro 5bEuro 5a

Euro 5

Euro 5

Core Euro 5

China 5

L-5

Euro 4

Euro 4

Euro 4

Euro 4

China 4

Bharat 4

Tier 1 / Euro 3

Euro 3

China 3

Bharat 3

1/I 2/II 3/III 4/IV 5/V 6/VI Post 6/VI

Regulation Fuels /

Vehicles

Base scenario Control scenario

Fuel standards

Gasoline

Metro areas: 30 ppm

Rest: 85% 300 ppm; 15% 30

ppm

2016: 150 ppm

2017-2019: 30 ppm

2020+: 10 ppm (Subtract)

Diesel

Metro areas: 15 ppm

Rest: 500 ppm

2016-2017: 500 ppm

2018-2019: 15 ppm

2020+: 10 ppm

Vehicle

emission

standards

Light-duty

PM: US Tier 1

NOx: US Tier 2 bin 7

Phase-in complete after 2013

2018-2020: U.S. Tier 2

2021-2024: U.S. Tier 3 phase-

in (phase-in) (Subtract)

2025+: U.S. Tier 3 (Subtract)

Heavy-duty U.S. 2004 U.S. 2010

I&M sensitivity Light-duty Add nationwide I&M Add nationwide I&M

Base, control & sensitivity scenarios

Sensitivity scenarios would change steps in red:

1) The Base scenario plus a nationwide I&M program

2) Control scenario minus 10 ppm sulfur gasoline and Tier 3 harmonization

3) Control scenario plus a nationwide I&M program

HD US 2010 and 15 ppm sulfur diesel are the most

important driver of direct PM2.5 reductions

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1995 2015 2035 2055

To

ns

Mexico Annual Onroad Exhaust PM2.5 Emissions – Primary Particles

Base Case

All Standards (sulfur, LD, HD)

+ 89%

- 82%

Tier 3 and 10 ppm gasoline are important to sustain

long-term NOX reductions; I&M augments benefits

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1000,000

1200,000

1400,000

1600,000

1800,000

1995 2015 2035 2055

To

ns

Mexico Annual On-road NOx Emissions

Base Case

Base w/ Nationwide I&M

HD US 2010 and 15 ppm diesel

LD Tier 2 and 30 ppm gasoline

LD Tier 3 and 10 ppm gasoline

Nationwide I&M for Tier 2/3

LD and gasoline sulfur standards are critical for

reductions in VOC emissions

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1995 2015 2035 2055

To

ns

Mexico Annual On-road VOC Emissions

Base Case

Base w/ Nationwide I&M

LD Tier 2 and 30 ppm gasoline

LD Tier 3 and 10 ppm gasoline

Nationwide I&M for Tier 2/3

Contribution of standards to emission reductions in

2035 varies by pollutant

48%

14% 7%

100%

52%

86% 93%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NOx CO VOC PM2.5

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o 2

035 e

mis

sio

n r

ed

ucti

on

LD and gasoline sulfurstandards

HD and diesel sulfurstandards

On-road emission reductions are significant when

compared to emissions from all sectors

-44%

-66%

-53%

-96% -91%

-84%

-27%

-43%

-31%

-11%

-18%

-29%

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

CO NOx VOC SO2 PM25 BC

% change with control scenario (transport)

% change with control scenario (all sectors)

Vehicle standards would contribute to dramatic

reductions in pollutant concentrations

Ozone 8-hour (ppb)

Difference (Base minus Control)

PM2.5 (ug/m3)

Difference (Base minus Control)

Air quality indicator

(population-weighted) Nationwide Mexico City

Annual mean PM2.5 -17.6% -19.5%

8-hour maximum ozone -8.1% -4.9%

1-hour maximum ozone

(annual mean) -9.5% -6.3%

1-hour maximum ozone

(spring mean) -11.8% -13.7%

On-road emission reductions result in significant air

quality improvements

Difference in air quality with control scenario compared to base case in 2035

Pollutant

Total

Mortality

HDV

Mortality

LDV

Mortality

LDV Tier 3

Mortality

Ozone 2922 1071 1851 590

Total PM 6729 4775 1954 644

Total 9651 5845 3806 1234

Share 100% 61% 39% 13%

Draft allocation of avoided deaths in 2035

Draft allocation assumes:

NOx and VOC have approximately equal impact on ozone formation nationwide

SOx has a 10 times greater impact than NOx and almost 40 times greater than VOC on formation of secondary PM

Impact of each precursor on air quality concentrations varies dramatically depending on location,

season, time of day, etc.

We are working with air quality modelers to refine this allocation and expect the final shares to shift somewhat

Real-world emissions

& compliance

Significantly higher

emissions associated

with diesel vehicles

Source: http://www.theicct.org/environmental-risks-diesel-passenger-vehicles-brazil-2016, based on Chen and Borken-Kleefeld (2014)

While emissions standards decline,

real-world diesel NOx remained high

- 16 -

On-road test

Laboratory test

Source for photos: AVL / ERMES

Vehicles shown on photos are not related to test results shown

Source: http://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us

Comparison of laboratory vs. on-road tests for 3

diesel cars in the US triggered “Dieselgate”

- 17 -

Nearly all manufacturers in the EU make use

of the “thermo-window” defeat device

Source: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC75998/ld-na-25572-en-n_online.pdf

- 18 -

Government testing confirmed earlier findings,

points to numerous other defeat devices

Source: http://theicct.org/blogs/staff/first-look-results-german-transport-ministrys-post-vw-vehicle-testing

- 19 -

Source: http://www.theicct.org/future-of-vehicle-testing

Lack of emissions regulation enforcement

in Europe

- 20 -

NOx emissions from Euro standard diesel

cars have not decreased as intended

Source: http://eupocketbook.theicct.org

- 21 -

Euro IV and V standards have also failed

to reduce heavy-duty diesel NOx

Source: http://eupocketbook.theicct.org

Mexico market is most similar to the U.S.

Euro standard options allow for much

higher emissions

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

Euro4(diesel) Euro4(gasolina)

EPA Euro6(diesel) Euro6(gasolina)

EPATier2 EPATier3

Emisiones(g/km)

Emisionesevapora vas

FactordeemisionesdeHCNM

MásemisionesdeNOxenelmundoreal

NOxemissionfactors

NOx+HCTailpipeCer fica onLimit

NOM042EstándarC

Notes:1.EvapemissionsunderEPAop onforNOM042assumes75%complywithTier2stdandtherestwithEurostd.2.EmissionsfactorscomefromCOPERTforEuroandEMFACforEPA.EPAunderNOM042isMY2005,Tier2isMY2010,Tier3isMY2030.3.NMHCemissionsareassumedtobe85%oftotalHCemissions,slightlyhigherthan82%assumedbytheCOPERTmodel.4.NOxemissionfactorsarefromthemodels,excessreal-worldemissionsarefromCarslawetal.2011andFrancoetal2014.5.AllEPA-basedstandardsarefuelnuetralandassumecompliancebybothgasolineanddieselvehicles.Onlyasmallpor onofvehiclessoldintheUSorMexico,~2%orless,areusedieselengines.AlldieselvehiclessoldinMexicocurrentlycompywithEuro-basedstandards.6.Cer fica onlimitsarefortheN1,classIIIvehiclesunderEurostandardsandthehighestbinincludedforlight-dutyvehiclesunderEPAstandards.

Updating vehicle standards to meet current best practices

would have a tremendous impact on air quality & health

Accelerate implementation of Euro VI/US 2010 standards for HDVs

Adopt LD standards harmonized with US Tier 2 & 3

Clean up existing vehicles

Strengthen Programa de Autorregulación Ambiental for diesel fleets

LEZ

Improve inspection and maintenance program

Transition to new vehicle types

Ban LD diesels (low impact but not unreasonable)

Move to electric vehicles (taxis and buses are good options)

Tools include local standards, LEZs, fiscal incentives

Options to reduce vehicle impacts in Mexico City

Many ICCT staff contributed to these slides,

including Josh Miller, Ulises Hernandez, Maita

Schade, Peter Mock & Yoann Bernard

Please contact me with questions:

Kate Blumberg

+1-415-640-6352

kate@theicct.org

Thank you!