changing demographics in southwest...
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Regional Analysis & Outreach UnitLabor Market Information Office
Changing Demographics in Southwest Minnesota
Cameron MachtRegional Analyst,
Southwest MNDept. of Employment and
Economic Developmentwww.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/
320-231-5174 ext. 7535
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About DEED’s Regional AnalystsCollaborate with regional stakeholders on researchExtend access to DEED reports and statisticsConduct presentations and training on the local andregional economy & labor market Original research and analysis intended to answer “the tough questions”Five regional analystsstationed across the stateWe’re here to help you!We’re here to help you!
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Presentation AgendaWorkforce Development in Southwest Minnesota
Demographic ChangesDeclining PopulationsGrowing Old GracefullyIn- and Out-Migration PatternsIncreasing DiversityWhat Does That Mean For Your Business?
Economic ChangesSalary SurveyLargest IndustriesGrowing/Declining Industries
Conclusions and Questions
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“People are born, they move, they die”John Fraser Hart, Professor of Geography at the Univ. of Minnesota,explains population change this waySome areas of Minnesota are growing rapidly, other areas are holding their own, and others are declining
What’s happening?What’s happening?
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Moving From Rural to UrbanNationwide trend: U.S. population was 75%75% urbanurban in 1990; it jumped to 79% urban79% urban in 2000Statewide trend: MN population was 69.8% urban69.8% urban in 1990; it crept up to 70.9% urban70.9% urban in 2000
Percent of Population Urban and Rural, 1990-2000
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Big Stone CountyChippewa County
Cottonwood CountyJackson County
Kandiyohi CountyLac qui Parle County
Lincoln CountyLyon County
McLeod CountyMeeker CountyMurray C
ountyNobles C
ountyPipes tone CountyRedwood County
Renville County
Rock CountySw ift C
ounty
Yellow Medicine County
M innesotaUnited States
Urban: 1990 Rural: 1990
Urban: 2000 Rural: 2000
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Percent Population Change, 1990 to 2000
Sour
ce:
1990
& 2
000
Cen
sus
Slow but steady declineOnly Lyon (2.6%) & Nobles (3.7%)saw growth from 1990 to 2000
Cottonwood -4.2%Jackson -3.5%Lincoln -6.7%Murray -5.1%Pipestone -5.7%Redwood -2.5%Rock -0.9%
ZERO Southwest counties grew from 2000 to 2003
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25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2002
Population Change, 1960 - 2002
Region 6W Region 6E Region 8
Demographic ChangesRegion 6E has seen steady growth: +20.1% increase in +20.1% increase in populationpopulation since 1960
6.0% increase6.0% increase from 1990 to 20001.0%1.0% from 2000 to 2003 (+1,169)(+1,169)
Region 6W has seen a steady decline: --27.6% decrease in 27.6% decrease in populationpopulation since 1960
--1.6% decrease1.6% decrease from 1990 to 2000--2.7%2.7% from 2000 to 2003 ((--1,350)1,350)
Region 8 has seen a steady decline: --18.5% decrease in 18.5% decrease in populationpopulation since 1960
--1.3% decrease1.3% decrease from 1990 to 2000--2.0%2.0% from 2000 to 2003 ((--2,422)2,422)
2003
2003
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Percentage of the Population Age 65 and Over
Ahead of our time . . .By 2030, 20%20% of the MN population is projected to be aged 65 years & over…
Minnesota = 12.1%12.1%Healthcare crisis and worker shortages are making newsThis labor force change will have a major impact on the economyS
ourc
e: 2
000
Cen
sus
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So the Population is Growing… OlderRegion 6W is already there – 20.7%20.7% were 65 years and over in 2000; projected to reach 30.2%30.2% by 2030 – almost 1 in every 3 people!Region 8 was 19.1%19.1% in 2000; projected to reach 26.3%26.3% in 2030Region 6E was 15.6%15.6% in 2000; projected to reach 24.4%24.4% in 2030
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percentage of Population Aged 65 Years and Over in Regions 6E, 8 & 6W, 2000 - 2030
MinnesotaRegion 6ERegion 8Region 6W
Baby Boomers begin reaching retirement age in 2011
Source: Minnesota Planning
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Population Projections, 2000-2030
2.5%-0.6%124,700123,000121,000121,717Total Population
Percent ChangeSouthwest Minnesota Projected Population Changes
41.4%-4.3%32,80026,50022,20023,191Age 65 plus19.6%34.9%13,30017,00015,00011,12155 to 64 years-9.9%11.4%13,90013,30017,20015,43445 to 54 years-19.0%-23.6%14,20014,10013,40017,53535 to 44 years-1.4%7.8%12,80013,90014,00012,98525 to 34 years-11.4%-4.1%14,50014,40015,70016,36315 to 24 years-7.5%-6.3%23,20023,80023,50025,0880 to 14 years
2000 - 20302000 - 20102030202020102000
Much of the region’s population growth is projected to be in theage groups from 55 years and older
Significant declines in younger and “prime working” age groups
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Migration Patterns – Losing Our Youth?Net Migration, Age 30 to 44Net Migration, Age 15 to 24
Sour
ce:
1990
& 2
000
Cen
sus
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Demography and the EconomyThese regional demographic trends impact the local economyA long-term tightening of the labor force in our region is predictedThe loss of the young adult population leads to a different kind of labor market
Right now, there is slower growth in entry-level workersThat leaves an available pool of experienced, higher-skilled workersBut experienced workers typically demand higher wages, or perhaps better health insurance or more schedule flexibility…
In-migration has become much more important to the local labor force, requiring new workers to fill in available jobsTherefore, non-traditional students and continuing education are areas of potential future growth for higher education…What does that mean for businesses?
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What Does It Mean For You?With fewer mid-career and less growth in new entrants, employers will probably be looking for:
Productivity increasesWorkforce development RecruitmentRelocation
What comes first, the people or the jobs?Population and income growth generates demand for services
If people are retiring or moving away, who will fill the jobs?Labor force participation rates are decreasing for:
For males aged 25 to 54, Labor force participation rates decreased from 93.9% in 1990 to 91.3% in 2000
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A Job Bust from the Baby Boom?Labor force participation rates are increasing for:
Women of all agesFor females aged 16 years and over, Labor force participation rates grew from 62.5% in 1990 to 66.0% in 200066.0% in 2000 (Minnesota ranks #1 in the U.S.)
Older adultsFor males aged 65 to 69, Labor force participation rates grew from 28.7% in 1990 to 33.2% in 200033.2% in 2000; females grew 18.2% to 24.0%24.0%
TeenagersFor males aged 16 to 19, Labor force participation grew from 59.7% in 1990 to 60.3% in 200060.3% in 2000; females grew from 61.0% to 63.9%63.9%
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Not Necessarily…The total labor force is projected to grow 2.8% through 2030
Female labor force will grow 5.9%5.9% in Southwest Minnesota65 years + labor force will grow 108.3%108.3%25-44 years labor force will decline --11.9%11.9%
108.3%12.6%7,6007,1406,1104,9304,1103,7103,649Age 65 plus6.4%26.3%22,85023,26024,94026,71027,14025,09021,484Age 45-64
-11.9%-11.1%24,19024,94025,07024,67024,41025,03027,446Age 25-44-3.0%1.0%10,31010,0209,96010,31010,73011,18010,624Age 16-245.9%7.0%31,15031,22031,51031,71031,47030,54029,423Female labor force
0.1%3.3%33,82034,14034,58034,94034,91034,51033,780Male labor force2.8%5.0%64,96065,34066,09066,65066,39065,06063,203Total labor force
2000 -2030
2000 -20102030202520202015201020052000
Percent ChangeSouthwest Minnesota Projected Labor Force Changes(Projections from the State Demographer – Minnesota Planning)
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Minority Populations, 2000S
ourc
e: 2
000
Cen
sus
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Increasing Diversity
100%90,359100%31,358100%121,717Total Population
2.8%2,5395.9%1,8473.6%4,386Hispanic or Latino
0.5%4932.0%6180.9%1,111Two or More Races
1.5%1,3873.1%9701.9%2,357Other Race
0.0%350.0%120.0%47Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
1.2%1,0612.4%7381.5%1,799Asian
0.6%5281.4%4270.8%955American Indian and Alaska Native
0.5%4840.9%2710.6%755Black or African American
95.6%86,37190.3%28,32294.2%114,693White
PctNumberPctNumberPctNumber
18 & OverUnder 18All Persons2000 Population by One Race
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Growing Faster in Regional CentersNobles, Lyon, and Redwood Counties will see the biggest increases in labor force
Worthington, Marshall, and Redwood FallsMurray and Pipestone Counties will see declines
1.4% 2.9% 2.0%
5.5%
-8.4%
8.5%
-9.4%
6.0%
2.7%
-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
Cottonw ood Jackson Lincoln Ly on Murray Nobles Pipestone Redw ood Rock
Percent Change in Projected Labor Force, 2000 - 2030
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Changing Diversity (Example: Marshall)91.4% white – slightly lower percentage than Lyon & Southwest, slightly higher than MinnesotaBlack or African American and Hispanic populations increased fastest; Asian and American Indian populations growing faster inother parts of the county
-0.9% -2.6%
522.8%472.7%
7.3% 27.0%
120.0%
252.5% 262.0%321.9%
366.0% 371.5%
-50%
50%
150%
250%
350%
450%
550%
White Black or AfricanAmerican
American Indianand Alaska Native
Asian Some other race Hispanic or Latino(of any race)
Percent of Population Growth by Race, 1990-2000 MarshallLyon County
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Wages are Growing…SlowlyMinnesota Salary Survey is based on a rolling survey of 22,000 employersUpdated quarterly and annually for the state, regions, and MSAs
Second Quarter 2004Distribution stats for 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentilesSouthwest Minnesota typically earns less than 80 percent of the metro wage www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/oes/
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Wage Comparison Analysis
15,59098.0%$7.83$7.67Food Prep & Serving Related Occupations
8,62080.8%$23.59$19.06Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occs
2,980109.7%$14.38$15.77Protective Service Occupations5,83090.4%$11.52$10.41Healthcare Support Occupations
1,08074.5%$18.54$13.82Arts, Design, Ent., Sports, & Media Occs12,060101.6%$18.77$19.07Education, Training & Library Occupations2,87093.5%$15.97$14.93Community & Social Service Occupations5,46086.0%$24.06$20.68Business & Financial Oper. Occupations6,76077.7%$38.59$29.97Management Occupations
167,38081.7%$15.07$12.31Total, All Occupations
SW Region Employment
% of MN Wage
State of Minnesota
SW Region
Occupational Group
Wage Comparison: Major Occupational Groups
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Wage Comparison Analysis
Source: DEED Minnesota Salary Survey, Second Quarter 2004
5,63081.2%$18.12$14.71Installation, Maint. & Repair Occupations
14,15088.8%$13.25$11.77Transportation & Material Moving Occs21,74090.0%$13.94$12.55Production Occupations
6,67071.7%$21.70$15.56Construction & Extraction Occupations1,14097.4%$11.09$10.80Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Occupations24,79083.1%$13.81$11.47Office & Administrative Support Occs17,24079.4%$11.19$8.89Sales & Related Occupations3,87097.6%$9.58$9.35Personal Care & Service Occupations5,22092.5%$10.24$9.47Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maint. Occs
SW Region Employment
% of MN Wage
State of Minnesota
SW Region
Occupational Group
Wage Comparison: Major Occupational Groups
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The Loyalty EffectResearch shows that Americans are changing jobs and careers more frequently, regardless of the economyThe median number of years that wage and salary workers had been with their current employer was 3.7 3.7 yearsyears in January 2002
Despite these trends to the contrary, workers in Southwest Minnesota continue to display a remarkable amount of loyalty to their employersAccording to a recent Labor Force Assessment conducted in Regions 6E, 6W, and 8, the median employee tenure was set almost twice as high, at 7 years7 years; average employee tenure was close to 12 years!12 years!
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Year
s
Median Employment Tenure(years)
Average Employment Tenure(years)
Employment Tenure, in Years Region 6E Region 6W
Region 8 United States
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Show Me The Money! Region 890% of respondents rated an increase in pay as important* with 64% of respondents rating it as very important87% of respondents rated an increase in job benefits as important* with 64% of respondents rating it as very important80% of respondents rated better utilization of skills as important79% of respondents rated more job security as important
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What Money Can’t Buy…93% of working residents in Region 8 were employed within their region
4% are employed in the bordering counties of South Dakota and Iowa75% had one-way commute times under 15 minutes93% had one-way commute times under 30 minutesOnly 3% had one-way commute times of 46 minutes or more
65%
24%
5%
6%
74%
19%
4%3%
45%
28%
14%
13%
75%
18%
4%3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Region 6E Region 6W Region 7W Region 8
One-Way Commuting Times, 2001 LFA0 to 15 minutes 16 to 30 minutes 31 to 45 minutes 46 minutes or more
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Commuting Patterns
Nobles County
Lyon County
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Southwest MN EconomyRegion 8 had 4,001 firms4,001 firms & 52,906 jobs52,906 jobs paying $1.34 billion$1.34 billion in 2003
75.6%75.6% of employment in Region 8 is in services-producing industries; 24.4%24.4% of jobs are in the goods-producing domain (state = 19.3%)78.9%78.9% of employment in Region 8 is in the Private sector; 21.1%21.1% of jobs are in the Public or Government sector (state = 14.4%)
Manufacturing is the largest employing non-ag industry in Region 8, with 17.8%17.8% of total regional jobs (9,421 jobs9,421 jobs)
Statewide, manufacturing lost just over --50,00050,000 jobs during the recessionRegion 8 lost --1,600 manufacturing jobs 1,600 manufacturing jobs from 2000 to 2003Food Manufacturing lost --1,225 jobs1,225 jobs; but is still the largest employing manufacturing specialty (4,339 jobs4,339 jobs)Computer & Electronic Product Mfg. lost --460 jobs460 jobsMachinery Mfg. gained +316 jobs +316 jobs (highest-paying)
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Southwest MN EconomyHealthcare & Social Assistance is the next largest employing non-ag industry in Region 8, with 16%16% of total regional jobs (8,457 jobs8,457 jobs)
Statewide, healthcare & social assistance added just over 38,500 jobs from 2000-2003 (sometimes called “recession-proof”)Region 8 added 1,171 healthcare & social assistance jobs1,171 healthcare & social assistance jobs1,145 jobs 1,145 jobs at regional Hospitals; 2,205 jobs ; 2,205 jobs at Ambulatory Healthcare Services (clinics, doctor’s offices, dentists, chiropractors, etc.)3,386 jobs3,386 jobs at Nursing & Residential Care FacilitiesHealthcare is projected to be the largest-growing industry in Southwest Minnesota through 2010Most in-demand occupations include: Nursing Aides,Registered Nurses, Licensed Practical Nurses, Home Health Aides, Health Info Technicians, etc.
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Largest Industries… Region 8
NA1,585NAOther Services, Ex. Public Admin.-192,1752,194Finance and Insurance+662,3812,315Construction-1492,9283,077Wholesale Trade-202,9392,959Public Administration-8883,4554,343Accommodation & Food Services+694,6184,549Educational Services-496,5636,612Retail Trade
+1,1718,4577,286Health Care and Social Assistance-1,6009,42111,021Manufacturing+26052,90652,646Total, All Industries
Employment Change from
2000-2003
Average Employment
in 2003
Average Employment
in 2000
Largest Industries by Employment, 2003Southwest Minnesota – Region 8
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Fastest Growing Industries
+7.9%1,0901,010Specialty Trade Contractors+13.2%791699Wood Product Manufacturing+13.9%417366Repair & Maintenance+14.6%949828Truck Transportation+21.8%1,7641,448Machinery Manufacturing+25.5%752599Animal Production+26.6%219173Agriculture Support Activities+63.9%5936Plastics & Rubber Product Mfg.+67.2%2,2051,319Ambulatory Healthcare Services+80.5%231128Chemical Manufacturing+289.4%36694Nonstore Retailers
Employment Change from
2000-2003
Average Employment
in 2003
Average Employment
in 2000
Fastest Growing Industries by EmploymentSouthwest Minnesota – Region 8
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Largest Declining Industries
-31372403Publishing Industries-312,0692,100Executive, Legislative, & General Government-341,0221,056Gasoline Stations-48798846Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction-50310360Transit & Ground Passenger Transport-61208269Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores-791,2021,281General Merchandise Stores-87687774Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers-460428888Computer & Electronic Product Mfg.-9284131,341Accommodation
-1,2254,3395,564Food Manufacturing
Employment Change from
2000-2003
Average Employment
in 2003
Average Employment
in 2000
Largest Declining Industries by Employ-ment Southwest Minnesota – Region 8
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ConclusionsPeople are born, they move, and they die…The population in Southwest Minnesota is growing… olderThe Baby Boom will not necessarily create a Job Bust
Labor force participation rates are increasing for women, older adults, and teenagers; but also are bolstered by in-migration
Workers in Southwest Minnesota are more affordable than metro areas, and they show remarkable loyalty to employers
Many would change jobs if offered an increase in payCommute times are much shorter than in metro areas
The largest industries are Manufacturing, Healthcare & Social Assistance, Educational Services, Retail Trade, & Construction
Manufacturing is declining overall; but various specialties are still growingHealthcare & Social Services are increasing; aging population ensures demandAgriculture is still the foundation of the local and regional economy
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Questions?Cameron Macht
Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit320-231-5174 ext. [email protected]
Dept. of Employment & Economic DevelopmentLMI Analyst HelpLine
651/282-2714DEED Publications
651/296-6545DEED LMI Web Site
www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/