Georgia and Metro AtlantaDemographics and Economics

Mike Carnathan

Presentation to the Georgia Partnership for Excellence in Education

Critical Issues Forum, August 12

Atlanta Regional Commission

Neighborhood Nexus

mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com

How Well Do You Know Georgia?

Which County has the Most People?

Fulton County! As of the 2010 Census, it had a

population of 920,581.

Source: 2010 Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Which County in Georgia has the Highest Concentration of

Children?

Liberty County! More than 10 percent of the

population is under the age of 5.

Source: 2010 Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Which County has Highest Rate of Food Stamp Usage?

Terrell County! About 413 people per 1,000 residents

receive Food Stamps (SNAP).

Which County has the Highest Concentration of Adults with Limited English Proficiency?

Echols County! About 17 percent of the adult

population have limited English proficiency.

Which County has the highest concentration of those age

16-19 who have dropped out of high school?

Hancock County! Almost 34 percent of those age

between 16-19 are high school dropouts

Which County has the Highest Concentration of Those

Without Health Insurance?

Echols County! About 35 percent of the population

does not have health insurance.

Which County has the Highest Teen Birthrate?

Taliaferro County! In 2011, there were 58 births to teen

mothers per every 1,000 birth.

The Big Ten

• Fast growing state and metro area

• Growing older… but still young

• Growing more diverse (these are the young folks)

• Job market recovering

• Incomes are not

• Economy will reflect changing demographics

• “New Economy” jobs hot

• So are “Old Economy” jobs

• Education Gap is big

• Socioeconomics matter

Population Trends

Vid

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Georgia’s Growth About Double that of Nation’s, 1990-2014

Source: US Census

27.7%

13.0%

3.1%

55.0%

22.7%

4.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1990-2014 2000-2014 2010-2014

United States

Georgia

Georgia’s growth ranks 4th among all states since 1990

Source: US Census

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

One of the fastest-growing metro areas in the nation

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Metro Atlanta Growth: Inside and Out

ForecastPop

Change (000s)2015-2040

Source: Woods and Poole

28.7%

10.7%

27.0%

13.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

School Age (18 and Under) Older Adults (65+)

GA US

Georgia is Younger than Nation

Source: US Census

Metro Atlanta One of the Youngest Metros in Nation (especially in the Southeast)

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Age Distribution in Georgia: % 65+, 2010

Metro Atlanta relatively young compared to

Georgia

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Age Distribution in Georgia: % Under 5, 2010

Heaviest Concentration of Kids in Suburban Atlanta

& South Georgia

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Baby Boomer

Eisenhowers/Silents

Gen X

Millennial

1990 Age Comparison (%of tot pop)

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Nation ARC 20Cty

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

Millennial

Eisenhowers/Silents

Baby Boomer

Gen X

Gen Z

2015 Age Comparison (%of tot pop)

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Nation ARC 20Cty

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

Gen AA

Millennial

Baby Boomer

Gen X

Gen Z

2040 Age Comparison (%of tot pop)

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Nation ARC 20Cty

Metro Atlanta added more Black Population than any other metro…

Total Hispanic Black White Total Hispanic Black White

Houston 1,231,393 745,935 214,928 85,643 Tampa, FL 387,246 203,566 72,970 57,482

Dallas 1,210,229 634,449 233,890 158,283 Chicago 362,789 462,377 (58,255) (193,010)

Atlanta 1,020,879 276,993 473,493 106,267 Minneapolis 311,027 77,162 83,464 63,623

Riverside 970,030 767,440 58,919 5,613 San Diego 281,480 240,383 (7,887) (48,786)

Phoenix 941,011 418,706 80,318 320,370 Philadelphia 278,196 181,963 93,161 (140,551)

Washington 785,987 341,107 155,648 58,019 Boston 215,058 128,911 54,009 (136,692)

New York 574,107 760,983 (67,709) (558,563) San Francisco 211,651 205,545 (37,595) (185,650)

Miami 557,071 608,865 191,658 (267,991) Baltimore 157,495 72,425 74,124 (66,652)

Los Angeles 463,210 583,070 (85,025) (361,772) St. Louis 114,209 31,582 36,764 7,349

Seattle 395,931 147,023 36,061 27,015 Detroit (156,307) 41,147 (37,603) (194,535)

Metro

2000-2010 Population Change MSA

Metro

2000-2010 Population Change MSA

2000-2010

Source: US Census

2015 Race and Ethnicity

29.9%

31.9%

37.3%

46.3%

47.0%

47.8%

48.7%

53.3%

62.7%

71.8%

6.5%

19.9%

16.8%

24.6%

15.7%

15.2%

32.7%

16.5%

20.3%

7.0%

15.1%

2.4%

7.3%

10.0%

10.6%

6.0%

5.4%

6.2%

5.6%

7.3%

45.5%

43.9%

36.7%

15.6%

24.3%

28.6%

10.7%

22.1%

9.1%

10.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

LA

Miami

Houston

Washington

NYC

Dallas

Atlanta

Chicago

Philadelphia

Boston

White Black American Indian/Alaska Native Asian Pacific Islander Other Multiple Races Hispanic (Any Race)

Sou

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ESR

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Race Distribution in Georgia: % White, 2010

North Georgia =

Older and Whiter

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Race Distribution in Georgia: % Black, 2010

Metro Atlanta and SW Georgia has heaviest

concentrations of Black populations

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Race Distribution in Metro Atlanta: % White, 2010

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Race Distribution in Metro Atlanta: % Black, 2010

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Race Distribution in Georgia: % Hispanic, 2010

Metro Atlanta has heaviest concentrations

of Hispanics, but this population is dispersed. Not so much in the most “urban” places, though.

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Race Distribution in Metro Atlanta: % Hispanic, 2010

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

GenerationsSo

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ates

Millennials are the Most Diverse Generation

Source: Census Estimates

6.5%

11.3%

21.6%

28.4%

42.8%

47.1%

62.3%

63.2%

63.8%

67.9%

69.9%

75.7%

79.0%

90.3%

93.8%

89.4%

76.7%

64.9%

48.1%

53.2%

38.5%

16.4%

16.6%

23.4%

23.9%

24.1%

19.6%

14.1%

3.3%

0.4%

2.8%

5.8%

5.8%

17.2%

0.8%

6.5%

10.3%

16.5%

6.9%

4.8%

2.7%

1.9%

2.2%

4.7%

4.8%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Atlanta City

DeKalb

Clayton

Marietta City

Decatur City

Fulton

Gwinnett

Buford City

Cobb

Rockdale

Douglas

Henry

Fayette

Cherokee

Forsyth

% White % Black % Asian % Hispanic % Other

2000 School Enrollment

Source: GA DOE, via Neighborhood Nexus

2014 School Enrollment

2.9%

10.7%

14.8%

16.8%

18.3%

26.7%

29.6%

30.5%

35.1%

39.8%

51.8%

54.7%

61.2%

68.8%

71.6%

70.3%

65.5%

75.5%

64.6%

40.9%

31.3%

51.2%

42.5%

49.3%

31.9%

26.7%

12.2%

25.4%

3.1%

7.3%

4.2%

6.1%

1.1%

1.7%

2.4%

10.0%

1.3%

9.9%

2.8%

5.1%

5.6%

2.9%

2.5%

12.4%

1.7%

19.8%

15.7%

6.8%

13.4%

34.7%

27.9%

13.5%

14.2%

8.5%

19.5%

10.3%

27.7%

5.3%

12.6%

16.0%

2.9%

2.0%

1.8%

3.5%

3.7%

4.0%

4.4%

2.9%

4.3%

3.7%

5.7%

2.5%

5.7%

3.1%

3.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Clayton

DeKalb

Atlanta City

Rockdale

Marietta City

Gwinnett

Douglas

Fulton

Henry

Cobb

Fayette

Buford City

Decatur City

Forsyth

Cherokee

% White % Black % Asian % Hispanic % Other

THE REGION STILL BECOMING MORE DIVERSE

71.2%

66.6%60.1%

54.9%50.2% 48.3% 46.6% 44.9% 43.3% 41.6%

39.8%

24.8%

26.8%

28.3%

30.0%

31.8%31.9%

31.5%31.0%

30.3%29.5%

28.7%

1.9%2.8%

4.5%5.7%

6.8%7.4%

7.9%8.3%

8.8%9.2%

9.6%

2.1% 3.9%7.1%

9.3% 11.3% 12.4% 14.0% 15.7% 17.6% 19.6% 21.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

White Black Other Hispanic

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

Socioeconomic Trends

Job Market Recovering in Georgia

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.4

2.82.6

2.42.2 2.1

1.9 1.8 1.7 1.61.3

1.10.8

-2.1

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Percent Change in Total Jobs, May 2014 - May 2015

Metro Atlanta Outperforming Nation Last 2 Years

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan

-00

May

-00

Sep

-00

Jan

-01

May

-01

Sep

-01

Jan

-02

May

-02

Sep

-02

Jan

-03

May

-03

Sep

-03

Jan

-04

May

-04

Sep

-04

Jan

-05

May

-05

Sep

-05

Jan

-06

May

-06

Sep

-06

Jan

-07

May

-07

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May

-14

Year-Over-Year % Change in Total Employment

ATL

US

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Metro Atlanta One of the Top Performing Metros in Job Change Last Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Neighborhood Nexus

$30,000

$32,000

$34,000

$36,000

$38,000

$40,000

$42,000

$44,000

$46,000

$48,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Nation

Georgia’s Per Capita Income Lower Today than in 2000

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

$30,000

$32,000

$34,000

$36,000

$38,000

$40,000

$42,000

$44,000

$46,000

$48,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

GA

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

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Job Postings per 10,000 people employed, last 12 months

20th

HOW GEORGIA COMPARES

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Software Developers, Applications

Registered Nurses

Retail Salespersons

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical…

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Computer Systems Analysts

Customer Service Representatives

Medical and Health Services Managers

Managers, All Other

Business Intelligence Analysts

Human Resources Specialists

Sales Managers

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

Accountants

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and…

Management Analysts

Computer Systems Engineers/Architects

Database Administrators

Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and…

Marketing Managers

General and Operations Managers

Web Developers

Job Postings – Last 12 Months

TOP OCCUPATIONS IN GEORGIA

REGIONAL LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION FORECASTLabor Force Participation Rates – All Ages

66.0%

58.6%

54.0%

56.0%

58.0%

60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Rat

e

Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

7.9 AND 4.6

Forecast Summary – Total (in Thousands)

5,279

7,934

3,074

4,627

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

in T

ho

usa

nd

s

Population EmploymentSource: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

Employment ForecastTotal Private Sector Employment (in Thousands) by Industry

Job Change [1990-2040]

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Forestry & Fishing

Mining

Utilities

Mgmt of Cos

Information

Arts, Ent & Rec

Educ Svcs

Transp & Warehouse

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Other Svcs

Finance and Insurance

Real Estate

Accom & Food Svcs

Construction

Admin & Waste Mgmt Svcs

Prof, Sci & Tech Svcs

Retail Trade

Health Care

Emp in 1990 Change 1990-2015 Change 2015-2040Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2015) Series 15 DRAFT

ForecastJobs

Change,2015-2040

Source: Woods and Poole

So What?

Education Supply & Demand

71.7%

28.3%

Educational Supply (Education Attained by Those Age

25+)

BA- BA+

37.4%

62.6%

Educational Demand (Education Asked For in Job

Postings)

BA- BA+

3rd Grade Reading Exceed Rate Economic Disadvantage Rate

Source: Georgia Office of Student Achievement, via Neighborhood Nexus

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

% Does not Meet % Meets % Exceeds

Economically Disadvantaged Non-Economically Disadvantaged

Socioeconomics Matter!

3rd Grade Reading: Comparing Economically Disadvantaged to Non-Economically Disadvantaged

(10-County Area Aggregated)

Achievement Gap of 38 Points

Source: Georgia Office of Student Achievement, via Neighborhood Nexus

Socioeconomics Matter!

Source: ESRI, Georgia Office of Student Achievement, via Neighborhood Nexus

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% Exceeds 3rd Grade Reading

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

% NOT Economically Disadvantaged

Source: Georgia Office of Student Achievement

Health Matters!

Source: Accessed from Get Georgia Reading Campaign (based on original research by Dr. Bryan Williams)