chanti van der kust kenya feel the climate change? coffee ......literature & wms servers davis,...
TRANSCRIPT
Literature&WMSserversDavis,A.P.,Gole,T.W.,Baena,S.,&Moat,J.(2012).Theimpactofclimatechangeonindigenousarabicacoffee(Coffeaarabica):predictingfuturetrendsandidentifyingpriorities.PLoSOne,7(11),e47981.Jaramillo,J.,Muchugu,E.,Vega,F.E.,Davis,A.,Borgemeister,C.,&Chabi-Olaye,A.(2011).Somelikeithot:theinTluenceandimplicationsofclimatechangeoncoffeeberryborer(Hypothenemushampei)andcoffeeproductioninEastAfrica.PLoSOne,6(9),e24528.DaMatta,F.M.,&Ramalho,J.D.C.(2006).Impactsofdroughtandtemperaturestressoncoffeephysiologyandproduction:areview.BrazilianJournalofPlantPhysiology,18(1),55-8Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. (2015) Climatic Change: A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee 129: 89. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x Bagal, M. (2013) Study on the potential of marketing of Kenyan Coffee as Geographical Indication. European Comission.1.
Kenyafeeltheclimatechange?CoffeeplantationsinKenya
RosavanSchaick&ChantivanderKustCourseDigitalEarth1Year2017
ResultsTheIPCCpredictedthatwithclimatechange,temperatureswillriseandannualprecipitationwillincrease.Becauseofthevulnerabilityofcoffeeplantstowardsclimatevariations,temperatureandprecipitationchangewereexaminedovertwodifferentperiodsoftime,thepresent-dayandpredictionof2050(Tigure1).Also,themapsdisplaythecurrentcoffeeplantationsofKenyainordertocomparesuitability.TheTirstimportantaspecttoconsideristhechangeinprecipitation.Forcoffeebeanstogrowoptimallyannualprecipitationshouldbebetween1500-2500mm.Coffeeplantsaredependentonthetimingofrainfall,morefrequentofextensivedroughtsandrainfallmayupsetthebalanceandimpedethegrowingprocessofcoffeeplants(DaMatta&Ramalho,2006).AscanbeseeninTigure1,thepredictedchangeinprecipitationisminimalwitha17mmatmost,meaningthatprecipitationinKenya,willmostlikelynotinTluencethegrowthofcoffeeplants.Thesecondaspecttoexamineistemperature.Themostsuitabletemperatureforcoffeeplantstogrowinis18-21°C,howevertemperaturesreachingupto24°Careacceptable.Whencoffeeplantscomeincontactwithhigherorlowertemperaturesthanneeded,therespirationandphotosynthesisprocesseswillbeaffected,resultinginalowerstoragecapacityandthusmayreducetheyieldcapacityoftheplantation(DaMattaetal.,2006).AscanbeseeninTigure1a,mostcoffeeplantationsareinareaswithanaveragetemperatureof21-25°C,thismeansthataslightincreaseintemperaturemayaffecttheplants.Thepredictedmaximumincreaseoftemperaturewillbe3°Cby2050,thismeansthatsomecoffeeplantationswillbechallengedbyhighertemperatures.Theincreaseintemperaturewillmostlikelyaffectthepresent-daysuitableareasforcoffeecultivation.InordertoreviewtheeffectofclimatechangeonthesuitabilityoftheKenyancoffeeplantations,Tigure2hasbeenmade.TheTigureshowsthesuitableareasforcoffeecultivationin2050,consideringclimatechange.Astheannualprecipitationroseonlyminimal,datafromthepresent-dayhavebeenused.However,theincreaseintemperaturedoesaffectthesuitableareas.Theareadisplayingtemperatureshowstheareawherecoffeecanbecultivatedin2050.Currently,thetemperaturesdonotreachabove20°Candwithin50years,theywillnotexceedthe24°C.Themapshowsthatthereisonly2,5coffeeplantationwithinthesuitablearea,meaningthatclimatechangewillreducethecoffeeyieldofKenyaremarkably.
IntroductionEveryday,morethan2,25billioncupsofcoffeearedrunkworldwide,makingcoffeethesecond-mostvaluableexportcommodity.ArabicaandRobustacoffeearethetwomaincoffeeplantspeciescultivated,withArabicaproducingaround70%ofthetotalcoffeeproduction(Davisetal.,2012).Thecultivationofcoffeeishighlyclimate-dependentmakingitsusceptibletoanyvariation.Duetothis,coffeeproductionisonlypossibleinsomeregionsoftheworld,namelyCentral/SouthAmerica,EastAfricaandregionsinSouth-EastAsia.Arabicacoffeegrowsoptimallybetween18-21°C,howevertemperaturesmayriseupto24°C.Higherandlowertemperaturesexertstressontheplants,makingitdifTiculttogrowanddevelopappropriately(Davisetal.,2012).Besidestemperatures,altitudeandprecipitationalsodeterminethesuitablegrowingareasforcoffee.Altitudeisoptimalbetweenapproximately1000-2000meterwithameanprecipitationbetween1500-2500mmperyear.Thecoffeeindustrymayfaceseriouschallengeswiththeincreaseinclimatechangeduetotheclimate-dependencyofthespecies.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangehaspredictedthattheaverageglobaltemperaturesmayrisebetween1.8-4°C.Thismeansthattemperaturesmayexceedthe24°C,resultinginalesssustainablecoffeeindustry(Davisetal.,2012).Thechangeinclimatemayexertstressonthecoffeeplants,mostlikelyresultinginloweryieldsandplantdiseases(Jaramilloetal.,2011).
AimTheaimofthisresearchwastoexaminethepossibleclimatechangeby2050anditseffectonthesuitableareasforcoffeeproductionbyansweringthefollowingquestion:“Whataretheeffectsofclimatechangeoncoffeeproductionby2050?”Inordertoexaminetheeffects,acasestudyofKenyawasusedtomodelthepossiblechangeinclimateandinsuitableproductionareas.
MethodInordertoappointsuitablecoffeeproductionareasinKenyaregardingclimatechange,differentvariableshadtobetakenintoconsideration,namelytemperature,precipitationandaltitude.Therefore,differentmapshavebeenmade,containingthesevariablesofboththecurrentandfuturesituation,usingGeographicInformationSystems.Beforebeingabletoexaminesuitabilityofcoffeeplantations,itslocationshavetobedisplayed.ThiswasdonebycreatingashapeTilewithcoffeeplantationsinKenya,basedonapictureofthedistributionofcoffeefarms.Theseplantationsareusedinthisresearchasthemostsuitableplacestocultivatecoffeeatthepresenttime.ToobtaininformationaboutthespatialdispersionoftemperatureandprecipitationinKenya,atemperatureandprecipitationmapofAfricawasobtainedandlimitedtotheinformationofKenya(Tigure1a).ThemapshowingthecurrenttemperaturesinKenyaisa30-yearaverageofthesurfacetemperatures,publishedinEsri’sArcAtlas.Themapofprecipitationwasalteredtoshowtheaverageprecipitationinmm.Thetwomapsshowingthesituationin2050(Tigure1b)havebeenobtainedfromthesamegeodatabasecontainingdifferentterrestrialtopics.Boththepredictedprecipitationchange(inmm)andtemperaturechange(in°C)werebasedonamedianensembleanalysis.Additionally,anelevationmapofKenyahasbeenused.Although,itdidnotcontainexactnumbers,anestimationofthesuitablealtitudeforcoffeewaspossible.Thecombinationofthecriteriaforgrowingcoffee,thetemperatureandprecipitationatpresentandthechangeoftemperatureandprecipitationin2050,constructedthelastmap(Tigure2).Thismapshowsthesuitableplacesforgrowingcoffeeafterclimatechangehastakenplace.
Figure1a/1b.
Figure2.
ConclusionWiththeuseoftemperatureandprecipitationpredictionsforKenyain2050,anassessmentcanbemadefortheopportunitiesofcoffeeproduction.Thecurrentplantationswillbenegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange,foremostduetoariseintemperature.Thismakesthreecompleteplantationsunabletocultivateon.IfKenyadesirestocontinuecoffeeproductionafter2050,newplantationshavetobeconstructedinthesuitablecoffeeareas.
DiscussionTherearetwocoffeeplantvarietieswhichaccountformostofthecoffeeproducedworldwide:Arabicaandrobusta.ThisresearchhasmainlyfocusedontheTirstone,becausethisspeciesaccountsformorethan90%ofthecountry’sproduction(Bagal,2013).However,therobustashrubcangrowatloweraltitudesthanArabica(sealevel-914m).Additionally,itismuchmoretoleranttowarmconditions:itcanenduretemperaturesbetween18°-36°C.Therobustacoffeeplantalsorequiresslightlymorerainfall(2200-3000mm/yr)(Bunnetal.,2015).Thehypothesisrestsonthenotionthatthearabicaisheatsensitiveandwouldsufferathighertemperatures.Incontrast,robustacantoleratehighertemperaturesandcouldthusreplacethearabica.FurtherresearchontherobustacoffeeshrubwithrespecttothechangingclimateinKenyaisneededtocometofurtherconclusions.
WMS-servershttp://services1.arcgis.com/xFy0NvdBBPjHy9cp/arcgis/rest/services/Africa_Precipitation/FeatureServerhttp://services.arcgis.com/BG6nSlhZSAWtExvp/arcgis/rest/services/30yrAvgTerrestrialSurfaceTemp/FeatureServerhttp://cumulus-web-adapter-1827610810.us-west-1.elb.amazonaws.com/arcgis/rest/services/Atlas/TerrestrialMaps/MapServerhttp://tiles.arcgis.com/tiles/xutPGXazSVfA9ZMK/arcgis/rest/serviceshttp://tiles.arcgis.com/tiles/xutPGXazSVfA9ZMK/arcgis/rest/services/Kenya_Elevation/MapServer/0