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Chapter2:MethodsinPsychology

Mostpeopleuseonlyabout10%oftheirbraincapacity.Ifyou’reunsureofyouranswerwhiletakingatest,it’sbesttosFckwithyouriniFalanswer.PeopletendtoberomanFcallyaGractedtoindividualswhoareoppositetotheminpersonalityandaItudes.

ALLOFTHEABOVEAREFALSE!

Sowhydomostpeoplebelievethem?

TrueorFalse?

Common Sense •  Lookbeforeyouleap.

•  Birdsofafeatherflocktogether.

•  Absencemakestheheartgrowfonder.• 

•  BeGersafethansorry.

•  TwoheadsarebeGerthanone.

•  ThebiggerthebeGer.

•  AcFonsspeaklouderthanwords.

•  Clothesmaketheman.

•  Themorethemerrier.

•  You’renevertoooldtolearn.

•  Hewhohesitatesislost.

•  OppositesaGract.

•  Outofsight,outofmind.

•  Nothingventured,nothinggained.

•  Toomanycooksspoilthebroth.

•  Goodthingscomeinsmallpackages.

•  ThepenismighFerthanthesword.

•  Don’tjudgeabookbyitscover.

•  Two’scompany,three’sacrowd.

•  Youcan’tteachanolddognewtricks.

Lilienfeldetal.(2007)

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ScienceversusPopularPsychology

•  Popularpsychologyindustry–thesprawlingnetworkofeverydaysourcesofinformaFonabouthumanbehavior

•  Science–replicated,confirmedinformaFonabouthumanbehaviorobtainedthroughempiricalmeans

UncommonlySenseless

•  Althoughcommonsensecanbeveryusefulforsomepurposes,it’ssomeFmescompletelywrong

•  Meaning,ourintuiFveunderstandingoftheworldandourselvesissomeFmeswrong

•  Meaning,wecan’talwaystrustourownjudgment,orthejudgmentofothers

Which table is longer?

These two tabletops are identical in length.

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NaïveRealism

•  Thebeliefthatweseetheworldpreciselyasitactuallyisintruth–“seeingisbelieving”

•  Workswellinordinarylife,butconsider:– Theearthseemsflat– WeseemtobestandingsFll,yettheearthismovingaroundthesunat18.5miles/sec

WhenCommonSenseisRight

•  Notallcommonsenseiswrong– HappyemployeesaremoreproducFve–  Judgingtrustworthiness

•  Commonsenseshouldserveasageneratorforhypotheses,whichcanthenbetested

•  Learningwhenyoucanandcan’ttrustcommonsensemakesyouabeGerdecisionmaker

TruthisarrivedatbythepainstakingprocessofeliminaFngtheuntrue.-SirArthurConanDoyle

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•  Scienceis– “Asetofmethodsdesignedtodescribeandinterpretobservedorinferredphenomena,pastorpresent,andaimedatbuildingatestablebodyofknowledgeopentorejecBonorconfirmaBon.”

– Atoolboxofskillsdesignedtopreventusfromfoolingourselves

– Learningtominimizeyourthinkingerrors

– Self-correcFng

PsychologyasaScience

•  ConfirmaBonbias-tendencytoseekoutevidencethatsupportsourhypothesisandneglectordistortcontradicFngevidence– ScienFstsneedtodesignstudiesthatmaydisprovetheirtheories

•  Beliefperseverance-tendencytosFcktoouriniFalbeliefsevenwhenevidencecontradictsthem

ScienceasaSafeguardagainstBias

•  StrivetothinkscienFfically-thinkinwaysthatminimizeerrors– Becomeawareofyourbiases– UsethetoolsofthescienFficmethodtotrytoovercomethem

ScienFficThinking&EverydayLife

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OperaFonalDefiniFon

•  ThescienFficmethod

–  IsthestepsinvolvedinthinkingscienFfically

–  Isaguide,notacookbook

–  IshypotheFc-deducFve

–  AimsforobjecFvity

–  LeadsustowardsraFonalism

–  Involvesfourmainelements

SMGeneralizaFons

•  Hypothesis–atestablestatementaccounFngforasetofobservaFons

•  Theory–awell-supportedandwell-testedhypothesisorsetofhypotheses

•  Fact–aconclusionconfirmedtosuchanextentthatitwouldbereasonabletoofferprovisionalagreement

TheoryMisconcepFons

•  “Atheoryexplainsonespecificevent”

•  “Atheoryisjustaneducatedguess”

•  Whyarethesebothwrong?

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ElementsofScienFficThinking

•  InducBon–formingahypothesisbydrawinggeneralconclusionsfromexisFngdata

•  DeducBon–makingspecificpredicFonsbasedonthehypotheses

•  ObservaBon–gatheringdata,drivenbyhypothesesthattelluswhattolookfor

•  VerificaBon–tesFngthehypothesesagainstfurtherobservaFonstosupportorfalsifytheiniFalhypotheses

Induction / Hypothesis formation

Deduction / Prediction

Observation / Experimentation

Verification / Replication Self-

correction

PrinciplesofCriFcalThinking

•  CriBcalthinking-setofskillsforevaluaFngallclaimsinanopen-mindedandcarefulfashion

1.   Extraordinaryclaimsrequireextraordinaryevidence

2.Falsifiability-foraclaimtobemeaningful,itmustbecapableofbeingdisproved

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PrinciplesofCriFcalThinking

3.Occam’sRazor(parsimony)–simplestexplanaFonforagivensetofdataisthebestone

4.Replicability-findingsmustbeduplicated,

ideallybyindependentinvesFgators5.Rulingoutrivalhypotheses-needto

consideralternaFvehypotheses

6.CorrelaBonIsNotCausaBon•CorrelaFon-causaFonfallacy•Thirdvariableproblem •IfAandBarecorrelated:

A B B AOR

C AB

OR

PrinciplesofCriFcalThinking

C AB

OR

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Pseudoscience

•  Pseudoscience-setofclaimsthatseemsscienFficbutisn’t-lackssafeguardsagainstconfirmaFonbiasandbeliefperseverance

•  Astrology,out-of-bodyexperiences,polygraphtesFng,recoveredmemories,mulFplepersonalitydisorder,andsomeformsofpsychotherapy

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PrevalenceofPseudoscienFficBeliefs

AmongAmericansin2005–  ExtrasensorypercepFon 41%–  Hauntedhouses 37%–  Ghosts 32%–  Telepathy(mindreading) 37%–  Astrology 25%–  Visitstotheearthbyaliens 24%–  CommunicaFonwiththedead 21%– Witches 21%

(Skep/calInquirer,2005)

DangersofPseudoscience•  Opportunitycost-wemayforfeitothereffecFvetreatmentsduetocostorFmeofineffecFveefforts

•  Animaldeaths-relatedtoquesFonabletreatments(e.g.,theBlackRhinocerosandChinesegreen-hairedturtle)

•  Directharm-RebirthingtherapyofCandaceNewmaker

•  Slipperyslope

ResearchDesignMaGers

•  Evenwell-educated,intelligentpeoplecanbefooled

•  Well-planneddesignscanhelptoeliminatebiaseswhenexaminingphenomena

•  PrefrontallobotomyisexampleofwhathappenswhenwerelyonoursubjecFveimpressions

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PrefrontalLobotomy

•  HeurisBcs-mentalshortcutsorrulesofthumb– ReducethecogniFveenergyrequiredtosolveproblems

– Wetendtooversimplifyreality

•  ImagineyourselfdrivingfromReno,Nevada,toSanDiego,California-whatcompassdirecFonwouldyoutake?

HowWeCanBeFooled

SanDiegoisactuallyEASTofReno

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CommonHeurisFcs

•  RepresentaBveness-“likegoeswithlike”– Baserate-howcommonacharacterisFcorbehaviorisinthegeneralpopulaFon

– Baseratefallacy

•  Availability-“offthetopofmyhead”– EsFmaFngthelikelihoodofanoccurrencebasedontheeasewithwhichitcomestoourminds

•  Hindsightbias(“Iknewitallalong”)-tendencytooveresFmatehowwellwecouldhavesuccessfullyforecastedknownoutcomes(e.g.,“Iknewtheyweretheperfectcouple”)

•  Overconfidence-tendencytooveresFmateourabilitytomakecorrectpredicFons

•  Theseerrorscanleadtoconfidenceinfalseconclusions

CogniFveBiases

TheScienFficMethodToolbox

•  Allowsustotestspecifichypothesesderivedfrombroadertheoriesofhowthingswork– Theoriesarenever“proven,”buthypothesescanbedisconfirmed

•  WecanuseanumberofdifferenttypesofSMtoolstogaininformaFonandtestthesehypotheses

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TheScienFficMethodToolbox

•  ArchivalresearchreliesonexisFngdatatotestahypothesis

•  Thiscouldbealreadycollectedexperimentaldata,orrecordssuchasnewspapersorotherdocuments

•  Inexpensive,butallneededinformaFonmaynotbeavailable

TheScienFficMethodToolbox

•  NaturalisBcObservaBon-watchingbehaviorinreal-worldseIngs

•  Highdegreeofexternalvalidity-extenttowhichwecangeneralizeourfindingstotherealworld

•  Lowdegreeofinternalvalidity-extenttowhichwecandrawcause-and-effectinferences

TheScienFficMethodToolbox

•  SurveyresearchchoosesasampleofpeopletorepresentalargerpopulaFon

•  ThesearethenaskedquesFonsabouttheirbehaviors/thoughts/aItudes

•  Mustchoosethesamplecarefullytohavegeneralizability;sociallyundesirabletraitsmaybeunderreportedaswell

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•  Casestudydesigns–studyingonepersonorasmallnumberofpeopleforanextendedperiodofFme

•  Depthistradedforbreadth

•  Commonwithraretypesofbraindamage

•  Helpfulinprovidingexistenceproofs,butcanbemisleadingandanecdotal

TheScienFficMethodToolbox

•  CorrelaBonaldesigns–examinetheextenttowhichtwovariablesarerelated

•  CorrelaFoncanvaryfrom–1to+1,with0meaningthereisnorelaFonship

•  DepictedinascaWerplot-eachdotrepresentsasingleperson’sdata

•  IllusoryCorrelaBon-percepFonofastaFsFcalassociaFonwherenoneexists(e.g.,crimeandthefullmoon)

TheScienFficMethodToolbox

ScaGerplots

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WhatMakesaStudyanExperiment?

•  RandomassignmentofparFcipantstocondiFons– ExperimentalGroup-receivesthemanipulaFon– ControlGroup-doesnotreceivethemanipulaFon

•  IndependentVariable-experimentermanipulates

•  DependentVariable-experimentermeasurestoseewhethermanipulaFonhadaneffect

ExperimentalResearch

•  Theonlywaywecanestablishcause-and-effectrelaFonships

•  YouinvesFgatetherelaFonshipbetweentwoormorevariablesbychangingone(independentvariable)andseeingif/howotherschange(dependentvariable)

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WhatistheIVandDV?

•  Dr.Smithexaminesdailyexposuretoasunlamp(1hourofexposureornoexposure)impactspeople’sdepressionlevelsinthewinterFme.

•  Doesageofchild(4,5,or6)influencewhenchildrencanlearntoread?

•  DoesamountofFmereadingatextbook(everyday,onceaweek,ornone)influencehowyouwilldoontheexams?

•  Confounds-anydifferencebetweentheexperimentalandcontrolgroups,otherthantheindependentvariable– Makesindependentvariableeffectsnon-interpretable

•  Causeandeffect-possibletoinfer,withrandomassignmentandmanipulaFonofindependentvariable

WhatMakesaStudyanExperiment?

PitallsofExperimentalDesign

•  Placeboeffect-improvementresulFngfromthemereexpectaFonofimprovement

•  Subjectsmustbeblind-unawareofwhethertheyareintheexperimentalorcontrolgroup

•  Double-blinddesign-neitherresearchersnorsubjectsknowwhoisintheexperimentalorcontrolgroup

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ModernEthicalGuidelines

•  InsFtuFonalReviewBoard(IRB)–  InformedConsent–  JusFficaFonofdecepFon– Debriefingofsubjectsauerward

•  AnimalResearch–  InsFtuFonalAnimalCareandUseCommiGee(IACUC)

– About8%ofpsychologicalresearchusesanimals