chart 1 banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ata 1) 1) excluding foreign branches...

67
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters Source: Norges Bank 2 )

Upload: arlene-norton

Post on 25-Dec-2015

214 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 20030.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA1)

1) Excluding foreign branches2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Source: Norges Bank

2)

Page 2: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

Chart 2 Non-performing loans and loan losses in banks.1) Percentage of gross lending to municipalities, non-financial enterprises and households

Annualised loan losses

Non-performing loans per quarter2)

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks2) Annual data for the period 1987-1991

Source: Norges Bank

Page 3: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002110

120

130

140

150

160

170

Credit from domestic sources (C2)2)

1) Percentage of GDP2) Per cent of mainland GDP

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 3 Credit as a percentage of GDP

Total credit (C3)1)

Total credit to mainland Norway2)

Page 4: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

-1012345678

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002-1012345678

Chart 4 Household borrowing rate after tax deflated by consumer price inflation1). Per cent

1) CPI excluding energy products until 1993, Norges Bank's calculations for CPI adjusted for taxes changes and excluding energy products until 2000 Q2, after that CPI-ATE. Projection for household real interest rate after tax for 2003 Q3 based on money market rate

Source: Norges Bank

Page 5: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

85

90

95

100

105

110

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 200385

90

95

100

105

110

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks

Chart 5 Developments in banks’1) liquidity indicator2)

2) Stable financing (customer deposits, equities and bonds) as a percentage of illiquid assets (lending and other long-term assets)

Source: Norges Bank

Page 6: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Source: EcoWin

Chart 1.1 International equity indices.Indexed, 02.01.02 = 100

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

jan 02 mai 02 sep 02 jan 03 mai 03 sep 0350

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Japan, Topix

Europe, Stoxx

Norway, OBX

US, S&P 500

Page 7: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Source: EcoWin

Chart 1.2 Yield on government bonds with 5 years to maturity. Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

2

4

6

8

US

Germany

Japan

Page 8: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995-1997 2001-0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1) Lowest part of each bar indicates the share of government securities

Source: United States Department of the Treasury

Europe

Asia

Other

Chart 1.3 Net purchase of securities from the US. Per cent of total purchase in the same period1)

Page 9: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

1) Trade-weighted exchange rate index for Norway, inverted

Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank

Chart 1.4 Exchange rates. Daily quotations. Indexed, 01.01.02 = 100

70

80

90

100

110

120

jan 02 mai 02 sep 02 jan 03 mai 03 sep 0370

80

90

100

110

120

USD/euro

USD/yen

TWI1)

Page 10: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Chart 1.5 Housing loans as a per cent of housing wealth. US household sector

39

41

43

45

47

1993 1995 1998 2000 2003

Page 11: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Source: Datastream

Chart 1.6 Yield spreads between corporate and government bonds in the euro area. Percentage points

0,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

jan 02 mai 02 sep 02 jan 03 mai 03 sep 030,25

0,50

0,75

1,00

1,25

1,50

1,75

Financial index

Overall corporate index

Page 12: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 1.7 Non-performing loans in US banks. Percentage of total lending

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20031,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Page 13: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 1.8 Relationship between price and future earnings1) for companies in the S&P 500 index

0

15

30

45

60

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 20030

15

30

45

60

1) Annual earnings one year ahead from the price date. Actual earnings to the end of 2003 Q2, after that estimated earnings

Sources: Standard and Poor’s and Norges Bank

Page 14: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Source: EcoWin

Chart 1.9 Yield spread between US corporate bonds with various credit ratings and government bonds. Percentage points

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

jan 02 mai 02 sep 02 jan 03 mai 03 sep 030

1

2

3

4

Investment grade(right-hand scale)

Speculative grade (left-hand scale)

Page 15: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Source: EcoWin

Chart 1.10 Yield spreads between government debt of emerging economies and US government bonds. Percentage points

0

5

10

15

20

25

jan 02 mai 02 sep 02 jan 03 mai 03 sep 030

5

10

15

20

25

Brazil

Asia Eastern Europe

Turkey

Page 16: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

1) Weighted average of the telecom and IT indices

Source: EcoWin

Chart 1.11 Sub-indices on the Oslo Stock ExchangeIndexed, 02.01.02 = 100

405060708090

100110120130

jan 02 mai 02 sep 02 jan 03 mai 03 sep 03405060708090100110120130

Energy

ICT1)

OSEBX

Bank

Industrials

Page 17: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 1.12 Yield spread between bonds issued by Norwegian banks1) and Norwegian government bonds. Percentage points. 3-year duration

Sources: Ecowin, Oslo Stock Exchange and Norges Bank

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

jun 02 sep 02 des 02 mar 03 jun 03 sep 030,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

1) The series also includes three mortgage companies

Page 18: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 1.13 Probability of default for Norwegian commercial and savings banks1). Per cent

Source: Moody's KMV

0

1

2

3

jan 02 mai 02 sep 02 jan 03 mai 03 sep 030

1

2

3

25 percentile

Median75 percentile

1) Probability of default within 1 year.

Page 19: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

10

20

30

40

50

jan 02 mai 02 sep 02 jan 03 mai 03 sep 030

10

20

30

40

50

Chart 1.14 Volatility of Norwegian bank shares, primary capital certificates and the total market. 100-day moving windows, weighted exponentially. Daily figures. Per cent

Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank

OSEBX

Bank shares

Primary capital certificates

Page 20: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Sources: Deutsche Bundesbank,EcoWin and Statistics Norway

Chart 1 Nominal house price indices in selected countries. Indexed, 01.03.95 = 100

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200350

100

150

200

250

Japan

UK

Norway

US

Germany

Page 21: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2 Rise in house prices and growth in domestic credit in selected countries. 12-month growth, March 20031). Per cent

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-5 0 5 10 15

JapanGermany

Australia

UK

Norway 03

US

Netherlands

Norway 02

Norway 00

1) Rise in house prices as of June 2002 for Germany. For Norway, figures are for March of each year in the period 2000-2003

Sources: Deutsche Bundesbank, EcoWin, IMF, Kadaster,Norges Bank, Statistics Norway and Statistics Australia

Norway 01

Credit growth

Rise

in h

ouse

pric

es

Page 22: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.1 Business sentiment indicator for manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index1)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1) A value of less than 0 implies that the majority of industrial leaders expects a weaker outlook in the next quarter

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Page 23: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Total

Personal financial situation

Country's economic situation

Chart 2.2 Consumer confidence indicator1). Unadjusted figures

1) Provides an expression of the share with a positive assessment of the current situation and outlook for the future less the share with a negative assessment

Kilde: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS

Page 24: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

5

10

15

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

5

10

15

20

Chart 2.3 12-month growth in credit from domestic sources, by debtor. Per cent

Source: Norges Bank

Households

Non-financialcorporations

Page 25: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Debt

Chart 2.4 Household financial assets, debt, net financial assets1) and housing wealth. Billions of NOK

Gross financial assets

Housing wealth

Gross financial assets excl. insurance claims

Net financial assets

1) Break in the statistics for all time series except housing wealth in 1995 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

Page 26: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 20020

25

50

75

100

125

150

Chart 2.5 House prices deflated by the building cost index and the annual wage index. Index, 1987=100

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Deflated by the building cost index

Deflated by the annual wage index

Page 27: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

40

60

80

100

120

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 200240

60

80

100

120

Chart 2.6 Households’ total debt1) as a percentage of the value of housing wealth

Source: Norges Bank

1) Break in the time series for total debt in 1995 Q4

Page 28: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

100

120

140

160

180

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005100

120

140

160

180

Chart 2.7 Household debt burden1)

Source: Norges Bank

1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income

Alternative with 10.2 per cent growth in debt

Page 29: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 200280

100

120

140

160

180

Chart 2.8 Household debt burden1) in selected countries. Annual figures

1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income

Sources: OECD, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank and Norges Bank

Denmark

Norway

Sweden

UKUS

Page 30: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20020

10

20

30

40

50

Chart 2.9 Household debt as a percentage of grossfinancial assets and housing wealth in selected countries. Annual figures

Denmark

NorwaySweden

UK

US1)

1) Non-financial assets are used instead of housing wealth for the USSources: OECD, Sveriges Riksbank, Danmarks Nationalbank and Norges Bank

Page 31: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 20050

2

4

6

8

10

12

Chart 2.10 Household interest burden1) andborrowing rate after tax

Source: Norges Bank

Interest burden

Borrowing rate after tax

1) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income plus interest expenses

Scenario with 10.2 per cent growth in debt

Page 32: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.11 Debt in households with various degrees of interest burden1). Billions of NOK

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1998 20030

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Decile 1-6

Decile 7-9

Decile 10

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Interest burden under 20 per cent

1) Debt in households with an interest burden under 20 per cent and debt in households with an interest burden over 20 per cent, by income (deciles)2) Estimates, first half year 2003

2)

Interest burden over 20 per cent

Page 33: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.12 Gross financial capital (excl. insurance claims) as a percentage of debt. Households with an interest burden1) over 20 per cent. By income decile

0

20

40

60

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100

20

40

60

1) Interest expenses as a percentage of disposable income

Source: Statistics Norway

20002001

Page 34: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.13 Gross financial capital (excl. insurance claims) as a percentage of debt. Households with an interest burden1) under 20 per cent. By income decile

020406080

100120140160180200

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10020406080100120140160180200

1) Interest expenses as a percentage of disposable income

Source: Statistics Norway

20002001

Page 35: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

50

100

150

200

250

300

Chart 2.14 Number of bankruptcies, employees and total sales of bankrupt entities.Quarterly figures. Index. 1st quarter 1998 = 100

1) Turnover and employment in last normal operating year2) Figure for 2003 is annualised based on the first three quarters

Sources: Statistics Norway and the Brønnøysund Register Centre

Number employed1)

Number

Total sales1)

Bankruptcies of limited companies in relation to total number of limited companies2)

Page 36: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

5

10

15

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

1

2

3

4

5

6

Chart 2.15 Total sales of bankrupt enterprises, total and for selected industries. Annual figures. In billions of NOK

Manufacturing

All industries (left-hand scale)

Property management etc.2)

Construction

1)

1) Annualised on the basis of the first three quarters of 20032) Property management, commercial services and rental activities

Source: Statistics Norway

Page 37: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 20050

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Chart 2.16 Debt and interest burden of non-financial enterprises excluding petroleum and shipping. Per cent of cash surplus1) excluding interest expenses2)

1) Cash surplus = Value added - labour costs + net capital income2) Annual figures, estimates from 2003

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Interest burden(left-hand scale)

Debt burden(right-hand scale)

Page 38: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.17 Key figures1) for the corporate sector2). Annual figures. Per cent

0

20

40

60

80

100

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 200202468101214161820

Return on equity

Return on total capital

Equity ratio(left-hand scale)

Source: Norges Bank

1) Return figures are based on pre-tax profit/loss on ordinary activities. Interest on debt is calculated on the basis of debt and interest costs in the accounts 2) Limited companies excluding enterprises in the oil and gas industry, financial industry and public sector

Interest on debt

Page 39: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.18 Predicted probability of bankruptcy.1) Per cent

0

2

4

6

8

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20040

2

4

6

8

1) Limited companies excluding enterprises in the oil and gas industry, financial industry and public sector2) Level of bankruptcy probability has been adjusted to reflect missing accounts in 2002

Source: Norges Bank

Median enterprise

80 percentile

2)

Page 40: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.19 Risk-weighted debt1) as a percentage of total debt. Per cent

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20020,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

1) Risk-weighted debt = probability of bankruptcy multiplied by long-term debt and overdraft facitlity2) Excluding shipbuilding and mining3) Adjusted for missing accounts in 2002

Source: Norges Bank

Commercialservices

Total

Property managementManufacturing2)

3)

Page 41: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Chart 2.20 Probability of default for large unlisted enterprises1). Monthly figures. Per cent

1) Non-financial, unlisted enterprises with a turnover of more than NOK 70 million. Probability of default within one year

Source: Moody's KMV

90 percentile

Median enterprise

75 percentile

Page 42: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.21 Probability of default for large unlisted enterprises. Median observation. Monthly figures. Per cent

Source: Moody's KMV

0

1

2

3

4

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

1

2

3

4

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Denmark

Page 43: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.22 Key figures1) for property companies2)

overall. Per cent

10

15

20

25

30

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002-20-15-10-505101520

Return on equityReturn on total capital

Equity ratio(left-hand scale)

Source: Norges Bank

Interest on debt

1) Return figures are based on pre-tax profit/loss on ordinary activities. Interest on debt is calculated on the basis of debt and interest costs in the accounts2) Limited companies with debt in the property management sector

Page 44: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 2.23 Rental price for and value of office premises in central Oslo. Price per square meter1)

1) Solid lines show nominal prices, dotted lines show amounts in 2002 kroner2) Last observation: average value January 2003, rental prices per November 2003

Sources: OPAK and Dagens Næringsliv

0500

1000150020002500300035004000

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 20020

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Rental price normal standard(left-hand scale)

Rental price prestigious pemises(left-hand scale)

Average value (right-hand scale)

2)

Page 45: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200350

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Source: EcoWin

Chart 2.24 Share prices for listed property companies. Index, 01.01.98 = 100

Property companies

OSEBX

Page 46: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 1 Household consumption by purposePercentage of household consumption

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Food, beverage and tobacco

Clothing and footwear

Housing, lighting and fuels

Furnishings and household items

Health, education and postal svcs

Transportation

Culture and recreation

Hotels and restaurants

Other

Source: Statistics Norway

1987

2002

Page 47: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 3.1 Banks'1) profits/losses. Percentage of average total assets

-3-2-101234

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002Q1-3

2003Q1-3

-3-2-101234

Net interest income Other operating incomeOperating expenses Loan lossesWrite-downs Pre-tax profit/loss

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks

Source: Norges Bank

Page 48: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

Chart 3.2 Gross non-performing loans to households and non-financial enterprises. Percentage of gross lending to municipalities, non-financial enterprises and households

Households

Source: Norges Bank

Non-financial enterprises

Page 49: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

1

2

3

4

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

1

2

3

4

Chart 3.3 Banks' deposit margin, lending margin and total interest margin1). Per cent

Total interest margin

Lending margin

Deposit margin

1) Interest margin is defined as the average of lending rates (excluding non-accrual loans) minus the average of deposit rates. 3-month money market rate (NIBOR) is used to split the interest margin into lending margin and deposit margin. The chart shows a moving average over the last four quarters

Source: Norges Bank

Page 50: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 3.4 Banks'1) other operating income. Percentage of average total assets

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002Q1-3

2003Q1-3

-0.3

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

Net commision income Share dividendsNet gain on securities Net gain on foreign exchangeNet gain on derivatives OtherOther operating income

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks

Source: Norges Bank

Page 51: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

5

10

15

20

0-10bn 10-30bn 30-60bn > 60bn0

5

10

15

20

2001 Q32002 Q32003 Q3

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 3.5 Average (unweighted) core capital ratio in banks1) by total assets. Per cent

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks. Nordlandsbanken and DnB have not been merged in this chart. The figures in brackets indicate the number of banks in the different intervals at the end of the third quarter 2003

(11)

(5) (3)

(122)

Page 52: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

5

10

15

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

5

10

15

20

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks2) Corrections have not been made for exchange rate fluctuations

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 3.6 Twelve month growth in banks'1) lending to the household and corporate sectors2). Per cent

Corporate sector

Household sector

Page 53: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Other

Primary industries

Manufacturing

Construction, power and water supply

Trade, hotel and restaurants

Shipping

Property management

Services

2003 Q320022001

Chart 3.7 Distribution of commercial loans1) in DnB, Gjensidige NOR and Nordea Bank Norge. Per cent

1) Commercial loans comprise both lending to non-financial enterprises and households which are self-employed

Source: Banks' annual and quarter reports (group data)

Page 54: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

-0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4

Other

Primary industries

Manufacturing

Construction, power and water supply

Trade, hotels and restauants

Shipping

Property management

Services

Average, corporate sector

2003 Q1-320022001

Chart 3.8 Loan losses (excl. changes in unspecifiedlosses) as a percentage of gross lending to different industry sectors1). DnB, Gjensidige NOR and Nordea Bank Norge

1) Commercial loans comprise both lending to non-financial enterprises and households which are self-employed

Source: Banks' annual and quarter reports (group data)

=8.2% in 2003

Page 55: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

2

4

6

8

10

12

Bonds (foreign currency) Bonds (NOK)

Equities etc. Notes and short-term paper

Chart 3.9 Banks'1) trading book by item. Percentageof total assets

1) Excluding branches of foreign banksSource: Norges Bank

Page 56: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

5

10

15

20

25

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200350

60

70

80

90

1) Excluding branches of foreign banksSource: Norges Bank

Chart 3.10 Banks'1) financing in the form of bonds, notes and short-term paper, deposits/loans from financial institutions and deposits from the non-financial sector as a percentage of gross lending

Bonds (left-hand scale)

Notes and short-term paper (left-hand scale)

Deposits/lending from financial institutions (left-hand scale)

Deposits from non-financial sector (right-hand scale)

Page 57: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

80

<70 70-80 80-90 90-100 100-110 >1100

10

20

3040

50

60

70

802002 Q32003 Q22003 Q3

Chart 3.11 Number of banks1) by level of liquidity indicator2)

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks2) Stable financing (customer deposits, equities and bonds) as a percentage of illiquid assets (lending and other long-term assets)

Source: Norges Bank

Page 58: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200370

80

90

100

110

120

130

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks

Chart 3.12 Developments in banks’1) liquidity indicator2)

DnB2) and Gjensidige NOR

Nordea and Fokus Bank

Other savings banks

2) Nordlandsbanken is included in DnB from 31.12.02

Source: Norges Bank

Other commercial banks3)

3) The increase in the fourth quarter 1998 is due to the transfer of a loan portfolio from BN-bank to BN-kreditt

Page 59: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030

5

10

15

20

25

30

Chart 3.13 Banks'1) short-term foreign debt2) as a percentage of gross lending

Other savings banks

Nordea and Fokus Bank

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks2) Deposits and loans from other financial institutions and notes and short-term paper

Source: Norges Bank

Other commercial banks

DnB and Gjensidige NOR

Page 60: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 3.14 Exposures to large counterparties by different types of exposure at four reporting times.1)

Per cent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Deriv

ative

s

Secu

rities

Depo

sits/

loans

Guar

antee

s/un

used

cred

it

FXse

ttleme

nts

Colla

terali

sed

loans

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

30/06/01 31/12/0130/06/02 31/03/03

2) Guarantees and unutilised lines of credit were not included 30.06.01, but in some cases may be included under deposits/lending

Sources: Banking, Insurance and Securities Commission and Norges Bank

1) One bank is omitted in connection with reporting 30.06.01. Nordlandsbanken is included in DnB figures 31.03.03

2)

Page 61: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 3.15 Institutional grouping of the 15 largest counterparty exposures for banks1). In billions of NOK

0

40

80

120

160

200

30.06.01 31.12.01 30.06.02 31.03.030

40

80

120

160

200

Banks in survey Other Norw. banks + fin. instit.Foreign fin. instit. Norw. non-fin. enterprisesForeign non-fin. enterprises

1) One bank is omitted in connection with reporting 30.06.01. Nordlandsbanken is included in the DnB figures for 31.03.03

Sources: Banking, Insurance and Securities Commission and Norges Bank

Page 62: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 30

2

4

6

8

10< 4% 4-7% 7-8% Over 8%

30.06.01 31.12.01 30.06.02 31.03.03

Chart 3.16 The effect on core capital ratio for the individual banks1) when the three largest counterparty exposures are lost separately2). Distribution of banks by core capital ratio after loss. Number

Sources: Banking, Insurance and Securities Commission and Norges Bank

2) It is assumed that there is no dividend from the estate

1) One bank is omitted in connection with reporting 30.06.01. Nordlandsbanken is included in the DnB figures for 31.03.03

Page 63: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 3.17 Mortgage companies' profits/losses. Percentage of average total assets

Source: Norges Bank

-0.3

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1-3 kv2002

1-3 kv2003

-0.3

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

Net interest income Other operating incomeOperating expenses Loan lossesWrite-downs Pre-tax profit/loss

Page 64: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 3.18 Finance companies' profits/losses. Percentage of average total assets

Source: Norges Bank

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1-3 kv2002

1-3 kv2003

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

Net interest income Other operating incomeOperating expenses Loan lossesWrite-downs Pre-tax profit/loss

Page 65: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

Chart 1 Daily turnover of NOK in CLS. Autumn 2003. In billions of NOK

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

09 Sep 16 Sep 23 Sep 30 Sep 07 Oct 14 Oct 21 Oct 28 Oct 04 Nov0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Source: CLS

Page 66: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0

20

40

60

80

100

22 Sep 29 Sep 06 Oct 13 Oct 20 Oct 27 Oct 03 Nov0

20

40

60

80

100

Chart 2 Disposable funds in NBO for large and medium-sized banks and maximum use of liquidity in NBO for CLS settlements. In billions of NOK

Source: Norges Bank

Use of liquidity for CLS

Amount disposable

Page 67: Chart 1 Banks' pre-tax operating profit as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Excluding foreign branches 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on first three quarters

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2001 2002 20030,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

Chart 1 Financial institutions losses in the event of various shocks, with and without a change in interest rates. Percentage of debt

Source: Norges Bank

Baseline scenario

Demand shocks with and without a reduction in interest rates

Supply shocks with and without a rise in interest rates