children's environmental health climate-change (1)
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate
Change andHealthWith special referenceto risks facing small
island-states
Anthony J McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology & Population HealthThe Australian National University
Canberra, ACT 0200
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Climate Change: the debate
Skepticism is now receding. We know that:
Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasing
GHGs affect the climate system (thankfully!)
World average temperature has risen relatively fastover the past 30 years
Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating
Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes havechanged over the past two decades
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Kilimanjaro 1970
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Kilimanjaro 2000
Ice on Kilimanjaro
0
5
10
15
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Area(km
2 )
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Climate Change: Basic Issues
Earths climate varies naturally because of a variety
of cosmological and geological processes.
Climate change refers to an additional, andrelatively rapid, change induced by human actions.
The additional change several degrees C within a
century will disrupt the foundations of life on Earth.
Ecosystems and life in general have evolved within a
narrow band of climatic-environmental conditions.
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1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
One Earth is available(The planets total bio-capacity = 1.0)
Number of Earthsused by humanity
Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002
Num
berofEar
ths
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From: Steffen et al. In press 2004
Atmos CO2conc
Domesticated landLoss of trop forest, woodland
Coastal shrimp farmsFully exploited fisheries
Climate disastersAv surface temp
(NH)
Atmos ozone loss
Atmos CH4concAtmos N2O conc
Coastal N2 flux
Global biodiversity
Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000
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Band of historical
climatic variability
20
15
1900 21002000
14
16
17
18
13
19
Average Global
Temperature (OC)
Year
205019501860
IPCC (2001)
estimatesa 1.4-5.8 oCincrease
Low
High
Central estimate = 2.5 oC(plus increased variability)
This presents a rate-of-change
problem for many natural
systems/processes
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Sea-level rise over coming centuriesfollowing 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions
200 400 600 800
Time from start (years)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Sea-lev
elrise(m) Total sea level rise
Ocean Expansion
Ice-melt
Greenhouse gas emissions (super-Kyoto action)
IPCC 2001IPCC, 2001
Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium
Peaking in 2050
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SLR Risks to SmallIsland-States
Coastal flooding
Amplified storm surges
Damaged coastal infrastructure (roads, etc.) Salination of island fresh-water (esp.
subterranean cells)
Impaired crop production
Population displacement: diverse health risks(nutrition, infection, mental health)
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Health effects
Temperature-related
illness and death
Extreme weather-
related health effects
Air pollution-related
health effects
Water and food-borne
diseases
Vector borne and
rodent borne diseases
Health Effects
Temperature-related
illness and death
Extreme weather-
related (floods, storms,
etc.) health effects
Air pollution-related
health effects
Human
exposures
Regional weatherchanges
Heat waves
Extreme weather
Temperature
Precipitation
Regional weatherchanges
Heat waves
Extreme weather
Temperature
Sea-level rise
Contamination
pathways
Transmission
dynamics-
-
-
-rodent
Microbial changes:
Contamination paths
Transmission dynamics
Water and food-bornediseases
Vector borne and
borne diseases
ClimateChangeClimateChange
Changes in agro-
ecosystems, hydrology
Socioeconomic and
demographic disruption
Effects of food and
water shortages
Mental, nutritional,
infectious-disease and
other effects
Modulatinginfluences
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ENSO and
climate change
The effect of global climate change on the future frequencyand/or amplitude of El Nio is uncertain .
Events may become more frequent or more intense.
However, even with little change in amplitude, climatechange is likely to lead to greater extremes of drying and
heavy rainfall, and to increase the risk of droughts andfloods that occur with El Nio
[IPCC 2001].
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VECTOR-BORNEDISEASE
Estimated population at risk of dengue fever
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1990
2085
Estimated population at risk of dengue feverunder standard climate change scenario:1990, 2085
Source. Hales S et al. Lancet (online) 6 August 2002.
.
http://image.thelancet.com/extras/01art11175web.pdf -
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Baseline2000 Courtesy: Kris Ebi
Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. I
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Baseline20002025Courtesy: Kris Ebi
Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. II
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Baseline200020252050Courtesy: Kris Ebi
Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. III
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What Should Health Ministries Do?
Commission/conduct national assessments of risks to healthfrom CC (and SLR)
Participate in emergency management preparedness(communications, facilities, skills)
Argue the centrality of population health as the real bottomline in the sustainability debate
Make links with other ministries education, primaryindustry (agriculture), fisheries, development planning, etc.
Highlight the sense and cost-savings of adaptation
strategies, to lessen adverse impacts
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ThatThat
s Alls All
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Global average temperature (oC) over the past millennium
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The International Energy Agency predicts that the
increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to
2030 in China alone will almost equal the increase fromthe entire industrialized world.
China is the world's second largest emitter of such
gases, after the United States even though China's
per-person emissions are, for example, still only one-
eighth of those in the United States.
GHG: Coming Decades
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Climate change impacts on rain-fed
cereal production, 2080
(IIASA: Fischer et al, 2001)
Need to convert estimates of regionalfood yields into estimates of changes in
numbers of malnourished people
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Scenario: A1F1 (high) CSIROMK2
Darwin
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Headland
Broome..
..
..
..Carnarvon.
Scenario: A1B (mid) CSIROMK2
Darwin
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Headland
Broome..
.
. ....
Carnarvon.
Darwin
Katherine
Cairns
Mackay
Rockhampton
Townsville
Port Headland
Broome..
..
..
.. Brisbane.
Model Estimate: CurrentDengue Risk Region
NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM, 2003
Dengue Fever: Estimated geographic
region suitable for maintenance ofAe.
aegypti, alternative climate scenarios
for 2050
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Categories of climate
extremes Simple extremes based directly on climate
statistics
Hot day = day with temperature > 95th
centile
Complex, event-driven extremes
Droughts
Floods Hurricanes/typhoons/tropical cyclones
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Changes in climaticphenomenon
Confidence inobserved changes
(latter half of 1900s)
Probability ofprojected changes
to 2100
Higher maximum temperatures- more hot days
Likely Very likely
Higher minimum temperatures,- fewer cold days and frost days
Very likely Very likely
Increase of heat index over landareas
Likely Very likely
More intense precipitation events Likely,(N mid to high
latitudes)
Very likely
Increased summer continental dryingand associated risk of drought
Likely, in a few areas Likely, over mostmid-latitudecontinental
interiors.Increase in tropical cyclone peak
wind intensitiesNot observed in the
few analysisavailable
Likely, over someareas
Increase in tropical cyclone mean andpeak precipitation intensities
Insufficient data Likely, over someareas
IPCC WORKING GROUP I, Third Assessment Report, 2001