china’s!urban!sustainability! strategies:!opportuni7es!and...
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www.lincolninst.edu
China’s Urban Sustainability Strategies: Opportuni7es and
Challenges Joyce Yanyun Man, Ph.D.
Associated Professor of Economics Senior Fellow of Lincoln Ins7tute of Land Policy
Mee7ng of the minds Conference, Toronto,
Canada, September 10, 2013
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China's Urbaniza7on Rate, 1978-‐2012
China’s Urban Popula7on, 2012
China’s Urbaniza7on in 2025 350 million will be added to Urban popula7on, nearly 69% from rural areas.
1 Billion people will live in ci7es by 2030 221 ci7es with more than 1 million popula7on (Europe has 35 today)
5 Billion m2 road paved 40 billion m2 floor space to be built in 5 million buildings
170 mass transit systems to be built 50,000 skyscrapers about 10 NYC 5 7mes the size of current GDP Source: McKinsey Report ‘Preparing for China’s Urban Billion”, 2009
China’s Urban Development Strategy: Spa7al Planning and Mega-‐regions
Importance of Megaregions in Na7onal Economic Ac7vi7es
No. of Megaregions 15 No. of Ci7es 132 Popula7ons 47% Land Size 14% Built-‐up Area 52% GDP 72% Retail Sales 68% FDI 83% Saving Deposits 68% Government Revenue 63%
Yangzhi River Delta “1 hour” economic Zone
Chinese Low Carbon Eco-‐City Development Strategy
The 12th Five-‐Year Plan (2011-‐2015): By 2015, energy and carbon intensity down by The 12th Five-‐Year Plan (2011-‐2015): By 2015, energy and carbon intensity down by
a cap on total energy use. 42 Low-‐Carbon Pilots in China First pilot group: 5 Provinces, 8 ci7es, Second pilot group: 1 Province and 28 ci7es
By Region
Source: CCICED 2011 Annual General Mee7ng
Energy and Emission Intensity Decreased by 22.7%, 2005-‐2012
1.28 1.24
1.18
1.12 1.08
1.03 1.01
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2.77 2.71 2.55
2.38 2.29
2.17 2.14
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Energy Intensity （tce/104RM, 2005 price）
CO2 Emission Intensity
Guangdong Low Carbon Plan, 2012 Carbon intensity： 45% rela7ve to 2005 levels.
An absolute cap on CO2 emission to 630 million meric tons from a 2010 base of 510 mil tons.
Service sector’s share 48% from 45.2% by 2015 A province-‐wide carbon emission trading system by 2013
Hangzhou By 2020, carbon intensity down by 50%, clean energy 80%.
One of 25 pilot “Ten Ci7es Thousand Vehicles” programs.
Subsidy for Electrical Vehicles, EV charging Sta7ons: 4 in 2012 and 11 by 2020. EV taxi, bus and 3000 units purchased by government in 2012
Baoding ,“Green Electric Valley”, “Sun City”
2005 2008 Clean Tech Firms 64 200 Green Revenue $700 mil. $3.5 bil. Export $58 mil. $1 bil. New jobs 13,500
New S7mulus Plan, 2013 3.7 trillion yuan projects in water pollu7on control and management and air pollu7on preven7on.
18 ci7es has a metro system. 23 new ci7es were approved to have urban rail systems under construc7on. By 2020, 40 ci7es are expected to have metro with length of rail track to 7,000 KM, 4.3 7mes the current length.
