cisco visual networking index (vni) global mobile data traffic forecast for 2013 to 2018 - latam y...

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global and Latin America (LATAM) Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update 2013-2018

Gonzalo Valverde

Regional Sales Manager Service Providers

Cisco Argentina, Paraguay & Uruguay

February 2014

Cisco Confidential 2 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership

Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Global Mobile Speed Data

Global Forecast Data


Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile Connections

More Mobile Users

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Video


2013 7.0 Billion 2018 10.2 Billion

2013 1.4 Mbps 2018 2.5 Mbps

2013 4.1 Billion 2018 4.9 Billion

2013 53% of Traffic 2018 69% of Traffic


Overview

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 5 Cisco Confidential 5 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

By 2018, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 190 exabytes per year, up from 18 exabytes in 2013 (nearly 11-fold growth).

190X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000

42 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)

4 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)



Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 11-Fold from 2013─2018

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2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

yte

s p

er

Month

10.8 EB

1.5 EB

15.9 EB

7.0 EB

4.4 EB

2.6 EB


61% CAGR 2013–2018


Latin America Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line LATAM Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 13-Fold from 2013─2018

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

yte

s p

er

Month

0.8 EB

0.09 EB

1.2 EB

0.5 EB

0.3 EB

0.2 EB


66% CAGR 2013–2018


Argentina Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Argentinean Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 14-Fold from 2013─2018

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

yte

s p

er

Month

70 PB

7 PB

103 PB

45 PB

27 PB

15 PB


68% CAGR 2013–2018


Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) Sample Global Usage

2 Hours of Video

5 Video Calls

2 Hours of Audio

2 App Downloads

2013

356 MB Traffic/month

20 Hours of Video

10 Video Calls

10 Hours of Audio

20 App Downloads

2018

3.0 GB Traffic/month



Top Trends


VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends

1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices

2 Measuring IoE Adoption ─ Emerging Wearable Devices

3 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Dominance

4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device

5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G)

6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds ─ Wi-Fi Wins

7 Adopting IPv6 ─ Beyond an Emerging Protocol


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6

8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%)

Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%)

Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%)

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Will Gain 14 Points to Reach 39% Share

8% CAGR 2013–2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share


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600

700

800

900

1,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions o

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evic

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Other Portable Devices (0.0%,0.1%) Tablets (0.5%,4.4%)

Laptops (2.3%,3.8%) M2M (4.8%,18.1%)

Smartphones (21.2%,42.8%) Non-Smartphones (71.1%,30.9%)

Latin America Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Have 43% Share; Non-Smartphones Decline Tablets and M2M Gain Share

6% CAGR 2013–2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share


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3

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5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f D

evic

es o

r

Connections

4G 3G 2G

Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

59%

68%

29%

3%

26%

15%


48%

44%

8%


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200

300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions o

f D

evic

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r

Connections

4G 3G 2G

Latin America Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

64%

74%

25%

0.1%

27%

9%


52%

45%

3%


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20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions o

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evic

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Connections

4G 3G 2G

Argentina Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

71%

69%

31%

0%

25%

4%


43%

56%

1%


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8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

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evic

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Non-smart Devices and Connections

Smart Devices and Connections

54% 46%

39% 32% 26% 21%

46% 54% 61% 68% 74%

79%

Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 54% Share

8% CAGR 2013–2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Smart devices are those having advanced computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.


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16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

Non-smart Traffic

Smart Traffic

96%

95% 93%

91% 90%

88% 12%

Global Impact of Smart Devices & Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 96% Share of Traffic

61% CAGR 2013–2018


4%

5%

7%

9%

10%

* Smart traffic is the traffic from smart devices, devices having advanced computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.


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0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f M

2M

Connections

3G

2G

4G

71%

41%

Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 6-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G

43% CAGR 2013–2018


28%

35%

51%

14%

50%

9%

2.0 B

1.6 B

1.1 B

0.8 B

0.5 B 0.3 B

* In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections. In 2014 ,1.5% connections, in 2015 , 3% connections and in 2016 ,5.6% connections are 4G.

34%

64%

41%

56%

47%

48%


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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions o

f M

2M

Connections

3G

2G

4G

84%

52%

Latin America M2M Connection Growth Latin America M2M Connections will Grow 5-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, Majority M2M Connections Will be On 3G

38% CAGR 2013–2018


16%

43%

48%

9%

43%

171 M

133 M

99 M

72 M

51 M 35 M

* In 2013, 4G accounts for 0% of mobile M2M connections. In 2014 ,1% and in 2015, 1% connections are 4G

21%

78%

28%

71%

36%

62%

3% 5%


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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions o

f M

2M

Connections

3G

2G

4G

Argentina M2M Connection Growth Argentina M2M Connections will Grow 5-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, Majority M2M Connections Will be On 3G

35% CAGR 2013–2018


15.8 M

12.3 M

9.2 M

6.7 M

4.8 M 3.5 M


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18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

yte

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Month

Mobile File Sharing (2.9%)

Mobile M2M (5.7%)

Mobile Audio (10.6%)

Mobile Web/Data (11.7%)

Mobile Video (69.1%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 69 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018


61% CAGR 2013–2018

Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share


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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

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Mobile M2M (4.8%)




LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018


66% CAGR 2013–2018



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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

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Month


Mobile M2M (5.3%)




Argentina Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018


68% CAGR 2013–2018



LATAM Average Mobile Connection (Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month

2013 2018 REGION

Latin America MB per Month

BY COUNTRY

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

Rest of Latin America

128

120

141

217

128

105

1,223

1,251

1,250

1,545

1,370

1,076



Wearable Device = 7 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

Mobile Device Data Traffic 2013 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons

Tablet = 127 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

= Laptop 227 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

= Smartphone 49 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

M2M Module = 6 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)



Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type

Non-Smartphone 10.8 45

M2M 61 451

Wearable 78 345

Smartphone 529 2,672

Tablet 1,374 5,609

Laptop 2,455 5,095


2013 MBs per Month

2018 MBs per Month

Note: In 2013, 4G Smartphones generated 2 GBs/month and 4G Tablets generated 2.4 GBs/month


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15

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25

30

35

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

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Month

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices


Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload * 52% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 45% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

48%

52%

*Offload refers to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell and wi-fi connectivity; excluding laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks.


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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

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Month




Latin America Mobile Data Traffic Offload * 41% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 29% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

59%

41%



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0.18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

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Month




Argentina Mobile Data Traffic Offload * 39% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 29% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

61%

39%



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2G 3G 4G

Mobile

and O

fflo

ad T

raff

ic f

rom

Mobile

-C

onnecte

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evic

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Mobile Traffic

Offload Traffic

Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2018 4G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G

56% 49%

40%

60% 51% 44%



Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 69% by 2018. Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones will be 51% by 2018. Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018


In LATAM, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 56% by 2018. In LATAM, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones will be 44% by 2018. Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018


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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mbps

Tablets

Smartphones

All Mobile Devices

Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 3.6x Higher than Average by 2018 Smartphone Speeds are 2.8x Higher than Average by 2018

9 Mbps

7 Mbps

3 Mbps



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6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mbps

Tablets

Smartphones

All Mobile Devices

LATAM Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 4.9x Higher than Average by 2018 Smartphone Speeds are 4.7x Higher than Average by 2018

4.9 Mbps

4.6 Mbps

1 Mbps



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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mbps

4G

3G

All Network Types

2G

Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 6X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 2X Higher than Average by 2018

14 Mbps

5 Mbps

92 Kbps

3 Mbps



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8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mbps

4G

3G

All Network Types

2G

LATAM Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 7X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 2X Higher than Average by 2018

7 Mbps

2 Mbps

81 Kbps 1 Mbps



Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi exceeds Mobile speeds during 2013-2018

2013 2018 GLOBAL

Global Mbps

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific

Latin America

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

3.9

13.6

10.7

7.9

5.7

11.7

3.2

23.7

25.8

19.4

22.0

11.9

27.2

4.7



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber

of

Devic

es (

B)

1.3B

Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, 4.9B Total IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections

4.9B


31% CAGR 2013–2018


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400

500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Nu

mb

er

of

Devic

es (

M)

110M

Latin America IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, 465M Total IPv6-capable mobile devices/connections

465M

33% CAGR 2013–2018



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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6.6 EB/ month

Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2018, IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Projected to Reach 6.6 EBs/month; By 2018, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 40% of Mobile Data Traffic

.09 EB/ month

Exabyte

s p

er

Month



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200

300

400

500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

449 PB/

month

Latin America IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2018, IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Projected to Reach 449 PBs/month; By 2018, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 39% of Mobile Data Traffic

5 PB/mo

Peta

byte

s p

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Month



Conclusion


Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2013–2018 Key Takeaways / Summary

By 2018, mobile data traffic will reach 15.9 EBs/per month (190 EBs annually).

By 2018, there will be 1.4 mobile connections per capita globally.

By 2018, avg mobile connection speed will nearly double (1.4 Mbps to 2.5 Mbps).

By 2018, over 69% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.

Global Mobile Data Traffic

By 2018, 52% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.

Global Mobile Traffic Offload

Global Mobile Smart Devices Traffic

Global Mobile Video

Global Mobile Network Speeds

Global Mobile Devices/Connections


By 2018, smart devices will generate 96% of global mobile data traffic.


Cisco VNI LATAM Mobile Forecast, 2013–2018 Key Takeaways / Summary

By 2018, mobile data traffic will reach 1.2 EBs/per month (14 EBs annually).

By 2018, there will be 1.5 mobile connections per capita in Latin America.

By 2018, avg mobile connection speed will grow 1.5-fold (0.7 Mbps to 1 Mbps).

By 2018, over 69% of LATAM’s mobile data traffic will be video.

LATAM Mobile Data Traffic

By 2018, 41% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.

LATAM Mobile Traffic Offload

LATAM Mobile Smart Devices Traffic

LATAM Mobile Video

LATAM Mobile Network Speeds

LATAM Mobile Devices/Connections


By 2018, smart devices will generate 96% of LATAM mobile data traffic.


Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2013–2018 Get more info—see Tools and Resources

www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]

Thank you.