cisco visual networking index (vni)...cisco visual networking index (vni) expanding the scope of...

Thomas Barnett, Jr. – Director, SP Thought Leadership

February 23, 2016

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Data Traffic Update, 2015–2020 Cisco Knowledge Network (CKN)

Dr. Robert Pepper – VP, Global Technology Policy

Arielle Sumits – Senior Analyst

Usha Andra – Senior Analyst Taru Khurana – Senior Analyst

2 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public

Global Mobile Speed

Data

Global Forecast

Data

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

VNI Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020


Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020

2015 2020

4.8 Billion

5.5 Billion

More Mobile Users

More Mobile Connections

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Video

7.9 Billion

11.6 Billion

2.0 Mbps 6.5 Mbps

55% of Traffic

75% of Traffic

Mobile Momentum Metrics


By 2020, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of

367 exabytes per year, up from 44 exabytes in 2015

(8-fold growth).

367X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000

81 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)

7 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 5 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public


Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8-Fold from 2015─2020

Exabytes per Month

53% CAGR 2015–2020


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

21.7 EB

3.7 EB

14.9 EB 9.9 EB

6.2 EB

30.6 EB


US Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line US Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 6-Fold from 2015─2020

Exabytes per Month

42% CAGR 2015–2020


0.5 EB 0.8 EB

1.1 EB 1.5 EB

2.1 EB

2.9 EB

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Accuracy VNI Projections for 2015 within ±10% of Actual Traffic Growth

66% 74%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2015 Traffic Growth

Average Projected Value (Previous 5 Reports)

Estimated Growth (Current Report)

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecasts, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015


Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (71%) from 2015–2020 APAC will Generate 45% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2020

53% CAGR 2015–2020


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and Africa (MEA) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Western Europe (WE) North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC)

Exabytes per Month 11%

45%

9%

14% 7%

14%



31% 39%

46% 46% 46% 47%

56% 56% 56% 56% 57% 57% 58% 59%

64% 67% 68%

79% 81%

86% 89%

111% 129%

Sweden Korea Spain

Canada Australia

Japan France Russia

Germany US

Italy UK

Mexico South Africa

Brazil New Zealand

Chile Argentina

Poland Saudi Arabia

India China

Indonesia

Cisco VNI Mobile Year in Review—

2015 Strong Growth

Worldwide


Global Mobile Users From 65% (4.8B) in 2015 to 70% (5.5B) of Global Population by 2020 Global Mobile Users Growing 2X Faster than Global Population

North America 2015: 302 Million 2020: 322 Million

CAGR 1.3%

Latin America 2015: 477 Million 2020: 577 Million

CAGR 1.6%

Western Europe 2015: 368 Million 2020: 378 Million

CAGR 0.5%

Middle East & Africa 2015: 709 Million 2020: 879 Million

CAGR 4.4%

Central & Eastern Europe 2015: 352 Million 2020: 360 Million

CAGR 0.5%

Asia Pacific 2015: 2,597 Million 2020: 3008 Million

CAGR 3.0%



Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7.9 Billion in 2015 to 11.6 Billion by 2020 at 8% CAGR

North America 2015: 486 Million

2020: 1,036 Million CAGR 16.4%

Latin America 2015: 770 Million

2020: 1,018 Million CAGR 5.7%

Western Europe 2015: 627 Million

2020: 1,129 Million CAGR 12.5%

Middle East & Africa 2015: 1,295 Million 2020: 1,845 Million

CAGR 7.3%

Central & Eastern Europe 2015: 642 Million 2020: 910 Million

CAGR 7.2%

Asia Pacific 2015: 4,031 Million 2020: 5,707 Million

CAGR 7.2%



Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will More Than Triple from 2.0 Mbps (2015) to 6.5 Mbps (2020)

North America

2.6-fold Growth 5.9 to 15.3 Mbps

Latin America


Western Europe


Middle East & Africa


Central & Eastern Europe


Asia Pacific




Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2020, Video Will Drive 75% of Mobile Traffic, Up from 55% in 2015

North America

77% of traffic by 2020 49% CAGR

Latin America


Western Europe






Asia Pacific




VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2015–2020 Top Mobile Networking Trends

1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

2 Defining Cell Network Advances ─ 2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives)

3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables

4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth

5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns

6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements



Trend 1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

•  Total devices and connections growth

•  Traffic by device category •  Smarter devices growth •  Smart devices traffic •  IPv6 Analysis


Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2020, Smartphones / Phablets Attain Largest Share Reaching Nearly 50%

8% CAGR 2015–2020


Billions of Devices

Back to Trends Menu

* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 device share

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Smartphones (32%,40%) Phablets (6%,8%) M2M (8%,26%) Nonsmartphones (50%,21%) Tablets (2%,3%) PCs (2%,2%) Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.1%)


Global Mobile Traffic Growth by Device Type Globally, Smartphones / Phablets Will Continue to Dominate Mobile Traffic, but M2M Will Gain Share by 2020

53% CAGR 2015–2020


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* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 traffic share

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Smartphones (inc. Phablets) (76%,81%) M2M (3%,7%) Nonsmartphones (2%,1%) Tablets (9%,8%) PCs (9%,3%) Other Portable Devices (0.03%,0.00%) Exabytes

per Month

Trend 1 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

•  Total devices and connections growth

•  Traffic by device category •  Smarter devices growth •  Smart devices traffic •  Ipv6 analysis

Globally, in 2015, a smart device generated 14 times more traffic

than a nonsmart device.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 28 © 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential

* Smart devices are those having advanced multimedia/computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity


Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2020, 66% of Mobile Devices/Connections Will be IPv6-Capable

Number of Devices

(B)

23% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2.7B

7.6B


Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2020, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 54% of Mobile Data Traffic

Exabytes per Month

102% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

16.6

0.5

By 2020, IPv6 M2M modules will be 1.5 billion a 27% increase during the forecast period, 62% CAGR.


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Trend 2 Defining Cell Network Advances—2G, 3G, 4G (5G Perspectives) •  Total Connections by

Network Type •  Network Connectivity for M2M •  Traffic by Network

Connectivity •  5G Perspectives


Global Connections by Network Type By 2017, 3G Surpasses 2G Connections By 2020, 4G Connectivity Surpasses All Other Connection Types


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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2G 3G 4G LPWA

Billions of Devices or

Connections

40.5% 38.7%

13.5% 7.4%

52%

34%

14%

0.3%

*Includes M2M


Connections by Network Type Regional Share by 2020

Global

BY REGION North America Western Europe

Asia-Pacific



2G 13%

3%

9%

15%

14%

8%

22%

Latin America


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3G 39%

14%

21%

52%

37%

42%

60%

4G 40%

59%

53%

32%

43%

42%

17%

LPWA 7%

24%

16%

1%

6%

8%

1%

Includes M2M


Global M2M Connections by Network Type By 2020, 4G and LPWA Lead M2M Connections

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Billions of Devices or

Connections

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2G 3G 4G LPWA 32%

12%

28% 26%

42% 40% 10% 4%



Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Already Carries Largest Share of Traffic – 47% By 2020, 4G Will Support 72% of Mobile Traffic

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2G 3G 4G

72%

27% <1%

Exabytes per Month

47% 10%

43%


Trend 3 Measuring Mobile IoE Adoption—M2M and Emerging Wearables •  M2M Connections growth •  M2M by vertical •  M2M Device usage—

traffic examples •  Wearables analysis


Global Mobile M2M Connections By Vertical By 2020, Connected Home Largest, Connected Health Fastest Growth

38% CAGR 2015–2020


Millions of M2M

Connections

Back to Trends Menu

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Other* (58.1% CAGR) Energy (44.1% CAGR) Manufacturing & Supply Chain (43.2% CAGR) Retail (15.4% CAGR) Connected Cities (42.3% CAGR) Connected Health (52% CAGR) Connected Car (32% CAGR) Utilities (33.8% CAGR) Connected Work (Ent Mgmnt) (46.6% CAGR) Connected Home (41% CAGR)

*Other includes Agriculture, Construction & Emergency Services


Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 6-Fold from 2015-2020; By 2020, 7 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity

44% CAGR 2015–2020


Millions of Connected Wearables

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0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

97 M

489 M 3.3%

601 M

6.9%

% with Embedded

Cellular Connectivity

261 M

167 M

373 M


Regional Connected Wearable Devices Asia Pacific Will Have the Largest Share by 2020

44% CAGR 2015–2020


Millions of M2M

Connections

Back to Trends Menu

* Figures (n) refer to 2015, 2020 regional wearable devices share

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Western Europe (17%,21%) North America (40%,30%) Middle East & Africa (4%,4%) Latin America (2%,4%) Central & Eastern Europe (5%,8%) Asia Pacific (31%,32%)

489 M

97 M

601 M

167 M

261 M

373 M


Trend 4 Tracking Wi-Fi Growth •  Total mobile vs. Wi-Fi vs.

fixed traffic growth •  Mobile offload •  Growth of Wi-Fi hotspots •  Day in connected life/

day-parting •  VoWiFi vs. other types of

mobile voice


Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2017, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic

23% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile Data (59% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (67% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (22% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (11% CAGR)

55%

38% 3%

4% 37%

34%

13% 16%

53% is Wi-Fi

29% from Mobile Devices

Exabytes per Month


Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 55% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2020 51% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2015


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*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. PCs) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

Exabytes per Month

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

45%

55%


Global Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2020 4G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G


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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

2G 3G 4G

Mobile Traffic Offload Traffic Mobile and

Offload Traffic from

Mobile-Connected

Devices 58%

48% 36%

64% 52% 42%

Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 71% by 2020. Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones/ phablets will be 56% by 2020.


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Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and Availability Existing Growth Future

•  Pay-as-you-go •  Free access promoting other

services (Retail free Wi-Fi) •  Managed services (venues

and outdoor) •  Cellular offload (user

promoted) •  Added value for broadband

subscription •  Advertising and sponsorship

•  Cellular offload (carrier driven)

•  Community Wi-Fi/ homespots

•  Carrier-grade VoWiFi •  TV everywhere •  Large events •  Big data analytics •  Public transportation Wi-Fi

•  Wi-Fi Capacity trading •  Transaction platform •  Internet of things •  Context awareness •  HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile •  Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi)

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Total Public WLAN + Community Hotspots

2015 2020 64.2M 432.5M

Total Incremental Hotspots ?


Trend 5 Profiling Mobile Applications Use and Bandwidth Consumption Patterns •  Mobile traffic by applications •  Average vs. busy hour •  Average per mobile user •  Average per connection •  Average for different device


Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video Three-fourths of Mobile Data Traffic by 2020

53% CAGR 2015–2020


Back to Trends Menu

* Figures (n) refer to 2015 and 2020 mobile data traffic shares

Exabytes per Month

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%)

Mobile Audio (8%,6%)

Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,17%)

Mobile Video (55%,75%)


Solitaire by Spotify Music

Waze Social GPS Dialer

Pinterest Words With Friends

Clash of Clans Sudoku Free

Twitter Tumblr

Snapchat Candy Crush Soda Candy Crush Saga

Google Maps Gmail

WhatsApp Google

Facebook Messenger Amazon Kindle

Instagram Netflix Safari

YouTube Chrome

Facebook

Source: Cisco, Verto Analytics

Top Apps on Tablet and

Smartphone by Time Spend—

2015


Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher than Average Hour in 2015, 88% in 2020


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0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average-Hour Traffic Busy-Hour Traffic

Tbps


Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month)

2015 2020 GLOBAL Global MB per Month


Latin America



746

1,792 1,134

588 568

1,529

409

5,216

8,887 6,528

4,237 3,785

11,835

4,790

Asia-Pacific


Back to Trends Menu


Trend 6 Comparing Mobile Network Speed Improvements •  Mobile speeds •  Wi-Fi Speeds •  Mobile speed

by device •  Mobile speed

by network


Mobile Network Speeds Increase 3.2X by 2020 Average Cell Connection Speed (2.0 Mbps in 2015) Will Grow at a 26% CAGR—Reaching 6.5 Mbps by 2020

2015 2020 Global Mbps


Asia Pacific



2.0

5.9 4.0

1.5 2.4

2.3

0.8

6.5

15.3 14.1

4.9 8.6

10.6

4.8

Latin America

GLOBAL


Back to Trends Menu


0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

4G 3G All Network Types 2G

Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 3.3X Higher than Average by 2020 Average Speeds will Surpass 3-3.5G Speeds by 2020


Mbps

Back to Trends Menu

15.3 Mbps

2.6 Mbps 2.0 Mbps

21.5 Mbps

116 Kbps

6.5 Mbps

85 Kbps 4.8 Mbps


Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 2.5x Higher than Average by 2020 Smartphone Speeds are 1.9x Higher than Average by 2020


Mbps

Back to Trends Menu

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tablets Smartphones

11.6 Mbps

7.5 Mbps

2.0 Mbps

16.2 Mbps

12.5 Mbps

6.5 Mbps


Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi Exceeds Average Mobile (Cell) Speeds During 2015-2020

2015 2020 Global Mbps


Asia Pacific



12.5

17.4 13.9

5.9 11.4

13.4

4.4

19.9

31.9 22.4

9.1 18.3

24.0

6.8

Latin America

GLOBAL


Back to Trends Menu


Forecast Implications


Key Takeaways

2015 Tipping Point for 4G—Accelerating/Dominating

Wi-Fi Essential: Tech and connection of choice

Tale of Two Networks: Video drives demand + M2M drives devices = increased complexity

March to 5G has begun: Evolution in tech, biz models,

architecture to meet heterogeneous requirements


5G Requirements (Still Evolving) Greater throughput—50+ Mbps

Ultra-high reliability

Ultra-low latency

Ultra density

Broadband MTC

Low-cost/long-range/low-power MTC

Diverse devices; user interactions

Various access technologies

High user mobility

Power efficient

Broadcast-like services

Ensure security, trust identify, privacy

Source: NGMN https://www.ngmn.org/fileadmin/ngmn/content/downloads/Technical/2015/NGMN_5G_White_Paper_V1_0.pdf


Conclusion


Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2015–2020 Get more info—see Tools and Resources

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www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]


Generations of Mobile Technology— A Snapshot


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2G

1980–99

14–64 Kbps

Digital voice, SMS, MMS

1G

1970–84

2 Kbps

Analog voice

Generation

Deployment

Bandwidth

Service

3G

1990–2002

2 Mbps

Integrated high quality audio, video

and data

4G

2000–10

200 Mbps

Dynamic information

access, variable devices

5G

2020+

1 Gbps+

Dynamic information

access with AI capabilities–IoE,

Wearable devices

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