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© 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast_2010
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Highlights IP Traffic Forecast 2009–2014 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast 2010-2015
Mary Brown Director, Technology and Spectrum Policy Cisco Government Affairs March 18, 2011
The Cisco VNI Global Forecast methodology relies upon various independent analyst forecasts as well as fixed and mobile data usage surveys.
Region/country data modeling with consumer/business usage trends.
Global Usage Trends Global Forecast Data
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership
2
Cisco VNI Forecast Update Summary / Key Highlights
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014; Global Mobile Data Forecast 2010-2015
Total IP Traffic 63.9 Exabytes per month by 2014
§ Annual global IP traffic will reach 3/4 of a zettabyte by 2014
Internet 47.2 Exabytes per month by 2014
Managed IP 13.2 Exabytes per month by 2014
§ Internet video will surpass P2P as top traffic type by end of 2010
§ Web-based video conferencing will grow 180-fold from 2009-2014
Mobile Data § By 2015, nearly two-thirds of the mobile data traffic will be video
6.4 Exabytes per month by 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exab
ytes
/mo Tr
illio
ns
14.7 EB/mo
Global IP Traffic Growth IP traffic will increase 4.3 fold from 2009–2014 In 2014, global IP traffic will reach 3/4 of a zettabyte
34% CAGR 2009–2014
63.9 EB/mo
© 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014
Global Consumer Internet Traffic Growth Video replaces P2P as top traffic type in 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exab
ytes
/mo
Online Gaming Video Calling VoIP Web and Data File Sharing Internet-Video-to-TV Internet Video
36% CAGR 2009–2014
46%
10%
27%
15%
© 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014
* VoIP, Online Gaming, and Video Calling contribute 1% or less in 2014.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tera
byte
s / M
onth
Central & Eastern Europe (#7) Middle East & Africa (#6) Latin America (#5) Japan (#4) North America (#3) Western Europe (#2) Asia Pacific (#1)
26.3%
29.3%
15.7%
7.8% 6.2% 5.5%
9.2%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
83% CAGR 2010–2015
Global Mobile Traffic Growth/Regions MEA has highest growth rate 129% APAC will generate 1/3 mobile data traffic by 2015
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
US Mobile Data Traffic Growth/Top Line US Mobile Data Traffic will increase 21X 2010-2015
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tera
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
627 PB per mo
45 PB per mo
915 PB per mo
83% CAGR 2010–2015
386 PB per mo
217 PB per mo
108 PB per mo
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Mobile VoIP Mobile Gaming Mobile M2M Mobile P2P Mobile Web/Data Mobile Video
Mobile Gaming and VoIP forecasted to be 1.2% of all mobile data traffic in 2015
3.9%
29.0%
62.4%
3.4%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2010–2015
83% CAGR 2010–2015
US Mobile Data Traffic Growth/Applications Video already half of mobile data traffic in US
Public Cisco VNI Web Site URL: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast, 2009–2014
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