cisco visual networking index (vni) and vni service adoption · •office building automation •...

SuHyun Wang

CTO of GSP Korea, Cisco

June 2017

Global Forecast Update, 2016–2021

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) and VNI Service Adoption

© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential

Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.

Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast

FIXED MOBILE

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)Global mobile and fixed IP traffic forecasts


Global Internet Growth and Trends

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021

Key Digital Transformers

By 2021

2016

2021

3.3 Billion

4.6 Billion

17.1 Billion

27.1 Billion

27.5 Mbps

53.0 Mbps

73% of Traffic

82% of Traffic

More Devices & Connections

FasterBroadbandSpeeds

More Video Viewing

More Internet Users


Overview


3.3 zettabytes is equal to:

• 14X more than all IP traffic generated in 2010 (232 exabytes)

• All movies ever made crossing global IP networks every minute

By 2021, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 3.3 zettabytes per year

• One trillion gigabytes

• Approximately 1021

(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

What is a zettabyte?

Establishing the Zettabyte Era



VNI Projections and Actuals (Global)Actual growth has been within ±10% of projected growth

29.1% 29.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2011-2016 CAGR

Projected in 2012

Actual (Reported in 2017)Compound

Annual Growth Rate

(CAGR)



24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic Growth by RegionMEA has the highest growth rate (42%) from 2016 to 2021APAC will generate 39% of all IP traffic by 2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Middle East and Africa (MEA) (42% CAGR)

Latin America (LATAM) (21% CAGR)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (22% CAGR)

Western Europe (WE) (22% CAGR)

North America (NA) (20% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (APAC) (26% CAGR)

Exabytes per Month


30.6%

38.7%

5.6%

13.5%6.1%

5.6%


Fixed and Mobile Growth in 2016Most countries have higher mobile than fixed growthBut there are a growing number of exceptions

AustraliaCanada

ChinaFrance

India

Indonesia

JapanUKUS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mobile Growth in 2016

Fixed Internet Growth in 2016



Top Trends


Top Trends

Devices & Connections

� Devices/Connections Mix

� IoT/M2M by Verticals

� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends

� Traffic Growth by App

� “Cord-Cutting”

� Traffic Pattern Analysis

Network Performance and User Experience

� Wi-Fi Momentum

� Accelerating Speeds

� Security Analysis


10% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Device/Connection Growth by TypeBy 2021, M2M connections will be more than half of total connections

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (1.6%,1.8%)

Tablets (3%,3%)

PCs (8%,5%)

TVs (12%,12%)

Non-Smartphones (19%,6%)

Smartphones (21%,23%)

M2M (34%, 51%)

Billions of Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 device share



Global Devices and ConnectionsAverage per capita and per household

Average Number of Devices and

Connections per Capita

2016

2.3 Devices & Connections

2021


Average Number of Devices and

Connections per Household

6 Devices & Connections




9% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Video Capable Device Growth by TypeBy 2021, nearly half (48%) of total devices and connections will be video capable

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (0.4%,0.2%)

Tablets (7%,6%)

PCs (18%,10%)

TVs (25%,25%)


M2M (6%, 12%)

Billions of Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 device share



SD 2 Mbps

HD 7.2 Mbps

UHD 18 Mbps

Connected 4K TV Sets

(M)

Increasing Video DefinitionBy 2021, more than half (56%) of connected flat panel TVs will support 4K


85

156

253

373

513

663

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

51% CAGR 2016–2021


24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic by Device TypeBy 2021, non-PC devices will drive 75% of global IP traffic

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (0.03%,0.02%)

Tablets (5%,7%)

PCs (46%,25%)

TVs (33%,30%)

Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%)


M2M (2%, 5%)

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2016, 2021 traffic share



Top Trends



� IoT/M2M by Verticals� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends





� Wi-Fi Momentum



© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential© 2017 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential

By 2021, M2M modules will be 51% (13.7 billion) of total global devices and connections and will account for 5% (14.3 EBs/month) of total global IP traffic.



19% CAGR 2016–2021

Global M2M ConnectionsGlobal M2M Connections will increase 2.4-fold from 2016 to 2021

6 7

8 10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billions of M2M

Connections


Global Korea

In 2021 51% 72%


49% CAGR 2016–2021

Global M2M Traffic GrowthM2M traffic will grow more than 7-fold from 2016 to 2021

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Middle East and Africa (52% CAGR)

Latin America (53% CAGR)

Central and Eastern Europe (57% CAGR)

Western Europe (48% CAGR)

North America (45% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (51% CAGR)

Exabytes per Month


5.6%

Global Korea

Average traffic / Month 0.336GB à 1.044GB 0.354GB à 0.987GB


Connected Home

• Home automation• Building security• Network equipment – printers +• Network infrastructure – routers +• White goods• Tracking applications• Household information devices

Connected Health

• Health monitors• Assisted living – medicine

dispensers +• Clinical trials• First responder connectivity• Telemedicine

Manufacturing & Supply Chain

• Mining and extraction• Manufacturing and processing• Supply chain• Warehousing and storage

Connected Work

• Office building automation• Building security• Office equipment – printers +• Routers +• Commercial appliances

Connected Cities

• Environment and public safety –closed-circuit TV, street lighting, waste removal, information +

• Public space advertising• Public transport• Road traffic management

Energy • New energy sources – monitoring and power generation support apps

• Smart grid and distribution• Micro-generation– generation of

power, by residential, commercial and community users on their own property

Connected Car • Fleet management• In-vehicle entertainment systems,

emergency calling, Internet • Vehicle diagnostics, navigation• Stolen vehicle recovery• Lease, rental, insurance management

Retail • Retail goods monitoring and payment

• Retail venue access and control

• Slot machines, vending machines

Other • Agriculture – livestock, soil monitoring, water and resource conservation, temperature control for milk tanks +

• Construction: Site and equipment monitoring

• Emergency services and national security


19% CAGR 2016–2021

Global M2M Connections / IoT Growth by VerticalBy 2021, connected home largest, connected health fastest growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Other (1% CAGR)

Energy (25% CAGR)

Mfg & Supply Chain (9% CAGR)

Retail (15% CAGR)

Connected Car (29% CAGR)

Connected Cities (29% CAGR)

Connected Health (30% CAGR)

Connected Work (15% CAGR)

Connected Home (18% CAGR)

Billions of M2M

Connections



Top Trends




� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends





� Wi-Fi Momentum




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

IPv6 Capable Mobile Devices

IPv6 Capable Fixed Devices

3.4B

Global : 8.1B

1.6B

Global IPv6-Capable Devices/Connections By 2021, 61% of devices/connections will be IPv6-capable

Global : 8.4B

Number of Devices

(Billions)


27% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Korea

61% 52%


Top Trends




� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends





� Wi-Fi Momentum




24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic by Application TypeBy 2021, video will account for 82% of global IP trafficGaming starts showing significant growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Gaming (1%,4%)

File Sharing (8%,3%)

Web/Data (18%,11%)

IP VOD (22%,14.5%)

Internet Video (51%, 67.4%)

Exabytes per Month



Korea

IP Video 79%


31% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Internet Video Traffic by TypeBy 2021, live video will increase 15-fold and reach 13% of Internet video traffic

020406080

100120140160180200

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Video Surveillance (2%,3%)

Live Internet Video (3%,13%)

Long-Form Internet VoD (60%,57%)

Short-Form Internet VoD (34%, 26%)

Exabytes per Month





0.09 0.24

0.49

0.85

1.25

1.72

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Virtual and Augmented Reality TrafficBy 2021, VR/AR traffic will increase 20-fold, 1% of Entertainment Traffic

82% CAGR 2016–2021

Exabytes per Month


26% CAGR 2016–2021

High Definition Content Impacts IP Video GrowthUHD IP video will account for 21% of global IP video traffic by 2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (2%, 21%)

High Def (HD) Video (47%,57%)

Standard Def (SD) Video (51%,22%)Exabytes per Month




Top Trends




� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends


� “Cord-Cutting”� Traffic Pattern Analysis


� Wi-Fi Momentum




Global Video Users / SubscribersMobile video growing fastest, followed by online video

1.91.6

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Online Video (5.8% CAGR)

Digital TV HH (4.2% CAGR)

Mobile Video (14.8% CAGR)

Millions


Cord-Cutting Household Traffic Is 86% HigherA global cord-cutting household generates 117 GB per month in 2017, compared to 63 GB per month for an average household

63

117

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2016

Average Household

Cord-Cutting HouseholdGB per Household per Month



Top Trends




� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends





� Wi-Fi Momentum




Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage

Average Traffic per User

2016

24 GB per month

2021

57 GB per month

Future

200 GB per month

Average Traffic per Household

63 GB per month 155 GB per month 500 GB per month



26% CAGR 2016–2021

Globally, FTTx Traffic is 28% Higher than Non-FTTx FTTx generates 84 GB per month in 2016 and 183 GB per month by 2021

66

164

84

183

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2016 2021

Other Broadband

FTTxGigabytes per Month



Internet Households Reshape Usage LimitsInternet households exceeding 1 TB doubled in 2016

1.9

3.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2015 2016


Terabyte Households

(Millions)


26% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Content Delivery Network (CDN) TrafficCDNs will deliver 71 percent of Internet traffic by 2021

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Non-CDN Internet Traffic (48%,29%)

CDN Internet Traffic (52%, 71%)

Exabytes per Month




68% of CDN Traffic will be carried by Private CDNs by 2021

61%68%

39%32%

2016 2021

Third-Party CDN

Private CDN

* Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021


Asia Pacific

Central and Eastern Europe

Latin America

Middle East and Africa

North America

Western Europe

Private CDN 3rd Party CDN Non-CDN Internet

CDN Share Differs Significantly by Region (2021)Overall CDN share ranges from 32% in MEA to 92% in NAPrivate CDN will be double 3rd-party in NA, reverse true in MEA


End-User Internet Traffic Moving Closer to the EdgeOver one-third of traffic will bypass core completely by 2021

Within Metro22% in 201635% by 2021

(100% cumulative)

Core – Regional20% by 201623% by 2021

(64% cumulative)

Core – Cross-Country58% in 201641% by 2021


10% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Enterprise SD-WAN TrafficSD-WAN traffic will grow at a CAGR of 44% compared to 5% for traditional WAN SD-WAN will increase 6x and will be 25% of WAN traffic by 2021

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

SD-WAN Traffic (6.4%,24.9%)

Traditional IP WAN Traffic (94%, 75.1%)

Exabytes per Month




Top Trends




� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends





� Wi-Fi Momentum




Global Wi-Fi Hotspot Coverage and AvailabilityExisting Growth Future

• Pay-as-you-go • Free access promoting other

services (Retail free Wi-Fi)• Managed services (venues

and outdoor)• Cellular offload (user

promoted)• Added value for broadband

subscription• Advertising and sponsorship

• Cellular offload (carrier driven)

• Community Wi-Fi/ homespots

• Carrier-grade VoWiFi• TV everywhere• Large events• Big data analytics• Public transportation Wi-Fi

• Wi-Fi Capacity trading• Transaction platform• Internet of things• Context awareness• HetNet Wi-Fi + mobile • Connected car (in-car Wi-Fi)

Back to Trends Menu

Total Public WLAN + Community Hotspots

2016 202194.0 M 541.6 M

Total Incremental Hotspots ?

Source: Maravedis, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021


42% CAGR 2016–2021

Global Public Wi-Fi HotspotsAsia Pacific leads with 246 Million (45%) Hotspots by 2021

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Middle East and Africa (MEA) (34% CAGR)

Central and Eastern Europe (49% CAGR)

Latin America (72% CAGR)

North America (34% CAGR)

Western Europe (25% CAGR)

Asia Pacific (59% CAGR)

Millions of Hotspots

Source: Global Public Wi-Fi Hotspots Asia Pacific Leads with 246 Million (45%) Hotspots by 2021

23%

45%

4%

17%9%

* Middle East and Africa represents 1% of global public Wi-Fi hotspots by 2021

94

542


802.11n600 Mbps Max

Medium Resolution Video

802.11ac3.6 Gbps Max

High Resolution Video

Wired Complement

802.11ax10 Gbps Max

Dense IoT Deployment

DOCSIS 3.038 Mbps per channel

VDSL2100 Mbps Max

Medium Resolution Video

DOCSIS 3.154 Mbps.

VDSL2-VPlus300 Mbps Max

G.fast150-1000 Mbps Max.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Future of Wired and Wireless TechnologiesBy 2021, 98.1% of BB CPE will be equipped with 802.11ac

Future Wi-Fi Enables Virtualization, IoT, Speech Processing, Security, Data Analytics

Full Duplex

DOCSIS 3.110 Gbps symmetrical

Inflection point for DOCSIS 3.1 in 2019Future Wired Enables 4K, Immersive 360 video, VR, High Dynamic Range, High Frame Rate, 8K


24% CAGR 2016–2021

Global IP Traffic by Local Access TechnologyBy 2021, 63% of total IP traffic will be wireless*

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mobile (46% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (16% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (48% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi-Only Devices (18% CAGR)Exabytes per

Month

* Wireless traffic includes Wi-Fi and mobile


19.8%

25.7%

37.1%

17.4%


Top Trends




� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends





� Wi-Fi Momentum




Global Average Fixed Broadband SpeedsDoubling in speeds from 2016–2021

Global

BY REGIONAsia PacificLatin America

Central and Eastern Europe

North America

Middle East & Africa

27.5

33.99.3

30.229.2

32.9

7.8

53.0

63.720.5

53.645.5

74.2

17.1

Western Europe

GLOBAL2016 2021


In Mbps


Global Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences

85% of all broadband connections by 2021

Online Video (HD movie download)

22 minutes(UHD movie download)

2 hours




48 minutes




12 minutes

10 Mbps 25 Mbps 100 Mbps


Top Trends




� IPv6 Adoption

Traffic Trends





� Wi-Fi Momentum




Security Professionals' Biggest Sources of Concern Related to Cyber Attacks


Peak attack size increased 60% Y/Y.

DDoS attacks can represent up to 18% of a country’s total Internet traffic while they are occurring.

Average DDoS attack size increases at 22% which is relatively the same rate as Internet traffic at 29% Y/Y.

DDoS Attack Size and Traffic Increasing

Source: Arbor Networks, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2016–2021


20% CAGR 2016–2021

Number of DDoS Attacks Greater than 1 GbpsAttacks grew 172% in 2016, will increase 2.5-fold to 3.1 million by 2021 globally

1.31.6

2.02.3

2.7

3.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Millions


Financial, Retail and Hospitality are the leading targets

Financial19%

Retail & Hospitality

13%

High Tech10%

Healthcare10%

Business and Professional Services

9%

Government9%

Manufacturing5%

Media and Entertainment

5%

Energy4%

Construction3%

Education3%

Biotech and Pharamceuticals

2% Other 9%

Source: M-Trends 2017


• Average cost of data breach per capita over 3 years increasing.

$201

$194

$183

$148

$141

$127

$109

$134

$70

$51

$217

$211

$189

$186

$163

$146

$135

$122

$133

$78

$56

$221

$213

$211

$196

$159

$156

$142

$140

$131

$101

$100

$61

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

United States

Germany

Canada

France

United Kingdom

Italy

Japan

Arabian Cluster

Australia

South Africa

Brazil

India

FY2016 FY2015 FY2014Source: Ponemon Institute 2016

• Average per capita cost globallywas $158 in 2016 compared to an average of $154 average last year.

• The US ($221) and Germany ($213) continue to have the highest per capita costs. India ($61) and Brazil ($100) had the lowest costs.


Technologies with the biggest security implications are publicclouds, big data and mobile applications, each of which have seen high adoption rates in recent years.

65%

63%

61%

60%

57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

Public-cloud software

Big data application

Mobile business

applications

Hybrid clouds

Source: Forbes Insight with BMC, 2017


33,488 Records Exposed per Breach

Source: 2016 Identity Theft Resource Center, 2016 EoY Report

Total Breaches: 1,093 Records Exposed: 36.6 Million

Highest in Business: 45.3% Highest in Healthcare: 43.6%


Enabling Authentication and Secure Internet Percentage of secure Internet servers to all web-Facing Servers

North America24% CEE

46%Western Europe

40%

Latin America

12%

MEA11%

Asia Pacific17%

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index 2016-2021

cisco visual networking index (vni) and vni service adoption · •office building automation •...

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