presentación del vni argentina - junio 2014
TRANSCRIPT
Cisco Visual Networking Indexand VNI Service Adoption
Gonzalo Valverde
June 2014
Argentina2013–2018
Regional Sales Manager
Cisco Confidential 2© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth
Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.
VNI VNI VNI VNI VNI
Service Adoption Forecast
Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast
FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS
Cisco Confidential 3© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
More Video Viewing79% of All IP Traffic
Faster Broadband Speeds2.6-Fold Speed Increase
More Devices21 Billion
Connections
More Internet Users4 Billion Internet Users
Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2013–2018
Growth Catalys
ts
Cisco Confidential 4© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
140,000,000,000
51 62 76 91
110 132
Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-LineGlobal IP Traffic will Increase 3X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes per
Month
Cisco Confidential 5© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1,000,000,0002,000,000,0003,000,000,0004,000,000,0005,000,000,0006,000,000,0007,000,000,0008,000,000,0009,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
3,487,829,816.2
4,361,390,824.6
5,318,015,818.9
6,362,650,465.7
7,576,491,913.0
8,930,541,953.9
Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-LineLATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes per
Month
Cisco Confidential 6© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180.0
100,000,000.0
200,000,000.0
300,000,000.0
400,000,000.0
500,000,000.0
600,000,000.0
700,000,000.0
800,000,000.0
900,000,000.0
326,810,646.15
410,621,165.22
491,796,958.10
576,511,700.51
674,160,406.73
783,893,841.65
Argentina IP Traffic Growth / Top-LineArgentina IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.4X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
19% CAGR
Exabytes per
Month
Cisco Confidential 7© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1,000,000,0002,000,000,0003,000,000,0004,000,000,0005,000,000,0006,000,000,0007,000,000,0008,000,000,0009,000,000,000
10,000,000,000 Rest of LATAM (21% CAGR)
Chile (20% CAGR)
Argentina (19% CAGR)
Mexico (23% CAGR)
Brazil (20% CAGR)
LATAM IP Traffic Growth / CountriesMexico has the Highest Growth Rate at 23% CAGR 2013–2018Brazil will Generate 44% of all IP Traffic by 2018
20.4%
43.7%
8.8%
21.2%
5.9%
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes per
Month
Cisco Confidential 8© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Internet Users GrowthBy 2018, There Will Be Nearly 4 Billion Internet Users
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
North America
317 Million by 2018
CAGR 2%
Latin America
371 Million by 2018
CAGR 9.6%
Western Europe
346 Million by 2018
CAGR 1.4%
Middle East & Africa
431 Million by 2018
CAGR 15.1%
Central/Eastern Europe
339 Million by 2018
CAGR 8.6%
Asia Pacific
2.1 Billion by 2018CAGR 11.2%
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Global Device GrowthBy 2018, There Will Be ~21 Billion Networked Devices/Connections
North America
3.4 Billion by 2018CAGR 13%
Latin America
1.7 Billion by 2018CAGR 9%
Western Europe
2.8 Billion by 2018CAGR 11%
Middle East & Africa
2 Billion by 2018CAGR 9%
Central/Eastern Europe
1.6 Billion by 2018CAGR 10%
Asia Pacific
9.2 Billion by 2018CAGR 11%
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018Cisco Confidential 9© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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By 2018, over half of the world’s population (52%) will have Internet access.
By 2018, there will be 2.7 device/connections per capita.
By 2018, 50% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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By 2018, over two-third of the population (67%) will have Internet access.
By 2018, there will be 3.4 device/connections per capita.
By 2018, 55% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Argentina
Cisco Confidential 12© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
North America
2.5-fold Growth18–43 Mbps
Latin America
2.6-fold Growth6–16 Mbps
Western Europe
2.5-fold Growth19–49 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.6-fold Growth6–15 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
2.6-fold Growth18–45 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.7-fold Growth18–48 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018Cisco Confidential 12© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)
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In Argentina, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.6-fold reaching 11 Mbps by 2018, up from 4.1 Mbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 14© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
North America
40.5 EB/Month by 2018
Video Share = 84%
Latin America
8.9 EB/Month by 2018
Video Share = 81%
Western Europe
19.3 EB/Month by 2018
Video Share = 79%
Middle East & Africa
5.3 EB/Month by 2018
Video Share = 79%
Central/Eastern Europe
10.2 EB/Month by 2018
Video Share = 70%
Asia Pacific
47.3 EB/Month by 2018
Video Share = 77%
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018Cisco Confidential 14© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global IP Traffic - Increasing Video Viewing By 2018, Video Represents 79% of Global IP Traffic
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In Argentina, monthly IP video traffic will grow 4-fold reaching 595 PB by 2018, up from 168 PB in 2013.
By 2018, IP video will be 76% of all IP traffic in Argentina.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
30 GB per month
In 2013
15 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
73 GB per month
In 2013
36 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future
Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Average LATAM Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
25 GB per month
In 2013
14 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
72 GB per month
In 2013
40 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future
Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 18© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Average Argentina Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
27 GB per month
In 2013
15 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
72 GB per month
In 2013
40 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future
Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 19© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
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Global Connected Devices Growth by TypeBy 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device shareSource: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
11% CAGR
Billions of Devices
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
M2M (18.6%,35.2%)
Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%)
Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%)
TV (10.0%,12.8%)
PCs (12.2%,7.0%)
Tablets (2.3%,5.0%)
Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)
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Increasing Video DefinitionBy 2018, More than 20% of Global Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
980,843 8,436,006 27,533,993
62,549,889
119,443,045
202,420,307
SD 2 Mbps
HD 7.2 Mbps
UHD 18 Mbps
Connected 4K TV Sets
(M)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Latin America Connected Devices Growth by TypeBy 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device shareSource: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
9% CAGR
Billions of Devices
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000M2M (14.7%,26.7%)
Smartphones (14.1%,24.2%)
Non-Smartphones (47.3%,17.5%)
TV (4.4%,13.3%)
PCs (14.9%,9.1%)
Tablets (1.4%,4.8%)
Other Portable Devices (3.1%,4.4%)
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Average Global Traffic per Device (2013)
=Tablet
Ultra High Definition TV
Laptop/PC
Internet Set-Top or Dongle
4.0 GB
= 22.9 GB*
22.7 GB
= 8.0 GB
* Includes IP VoD TrafficSource: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
=
=Smartphone 1.0 GB
=M2M Module 78 MB
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Global Internet Traffic by Device TypeBy 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 50% of Global Internet Traffic
Exabytes per
Month
23% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic shareSource: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000
Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.2%)
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.5%)
M2M (0.5%,3.7%)
TV (4.7%,6.2%)
Tablets (3.1%,18.0%)
Smartphones (5.0%,21.0%)
PCs (86.4%,50.5%)
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Latin America Internet Traffic by Device TypeBy 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive a Third of LATAM Internet Traffic
Exabytes per
Month
20% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic shareSource: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000
Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%)
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.6%)
M2M (0.2%,2.2%)
TV (0.9%,3.6%)
Tablets (1.1%,10.7%)
Smartphones (2.5%,15.9%)
PCs (95.1%,66.8%)
Cisco Confidential 26© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 27© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global M2M Connections / IoE GrowthBy 2018, Nearly 1 M2M Connection per Capita
M2M Connections
(M)
26% CAGR
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000 Asia Pacific (26.3% CAGR)Central & Eastern Europe (25.7% CAGR)Latin America (23% CAGR)Middle East & Africa (25.2% CAGR)North America (27% CAGR)Western Europe (24.6% CAGR)
Source: Machina Researc, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
2.3 B
2.9 B
3.7 B
4.7 B
5.9 B
7.3 B
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Global M2M Traffic GrowthM2M Traffic Will Grow 21-fold from 2013 to 2018
Petabytes per
Month
84% CAGR
Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000 Asia Pacific (77.4% CAGR)Central & Eastern Europe (92.7% CAGR)Latin America (87.5% CAGR)Middle East & Africa (91.5% CAGR)North America (91.1% CAGR)Western Europe (85.5% CAGR)
0.2 EB
0.3 EB
0.6 EB
1.2 EB
2.1 EB
3.7 EB
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Globally, M2M connections will grow more than 3-fold from 2013 (2.3B) to 2018 (7.3B)
Globally, M2M traffic will account for 3% of total IP traffic by 2018, up from 0.4% in 2013
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 30© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Internet of EverythingSmart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018Smart Cars Will Drive 41 Petabytes (PB) of Monthly Traffic by 2018
Smart Cars
Traffic (PB/Mont
h)
Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Smart Cars (M)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
35,351 56,592
90,031
136,003
192,293
255,689
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2,620 4,593
8,280
14,696
25,045
40,716
Cisco Confidential 31© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 32© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
North America
2.5-fold Growth18–43 Mbps
Latin America
2.6-fold Growth6–16 Mbps
Western Europe
2.5-fold Growth19–49 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.6-fold Growth6–15 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
2.6-fold Growth18–45 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.7-fold Growth18–48 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018Cisco Confidential 32© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)
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Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video ConsumptionVideo Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 350000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Video Minutes per Viewer
Linear (Video Minutes per Viewer)
Fixed Broadband Speeds (Kbps)
Video Minutes
per Viewer
Source: Cisco VNI, 2014
IndonesiaIndia
ArgentinaItaly
Mexico
BrazilAustralia
Chile
RussiaCanada
U.K.
Sweden
Japan
Germany
China
New Zealand
France
Spain
U.S.
Cisco Confidential 34© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences
Online Video (HD movie download)
22 minutes
Online Video (HD movie download)
4 minutes
Online Video (HD movie download)
2 minutes
55% of all broadband connections by 2018
10 Mbps
22% of all broadband connections by 2018
50 Mbps 100 Mbps
3% of all broadband connections by 2018
(UHD movie download)
2 hours(UHD movie download)
23 minutes(UHD movie download)
12 minutes
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North America
2-fold Growth12–23 Mbps
Latin America
2-fold Growth5–10 Mbps
Western Europe
2-fold Growth11–21 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.1-fold Growth4–8.4 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
2.4-fold Growth9–21 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.1-fold Growth10–22 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018Cisco Confidential 35© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Wi-Fi Speed Acceleration2.2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (10 Mbps) to 2018 (21 Mbps)
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Surge of Hotspots
Globally, there will be 53 million hotspots by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Plans to have 8 million US hotspots by end of 2014
Supports approx. 7 million hotspots in UK today
Offers more than 620K hotspots in Asia today
Offers more than 500K hotspots in LATAM today
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Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
802.112 Mbps Max
Applications Enabled Basic internet
802.11b11 Mbps Max
Applications Enabled Email
802.11b11 Mbps Max
Applications Enabled Rich Media Web
802.11ac3.6 Gbps Max
Applications Enabled High Resolution
VideoWired Complement
802.11n600 Mbps Max
Applications Enabled Medium Resolution Video
Number of 802.11ac Home CPE to Increase 13-fold from 2013 to 2018
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North America
2.6-fold Growth1.7 to 4.5 Mbps
Latin America
1.5-fold Growth0.7 to 1 Mbps
Western Europe
1.9-fold Growth1.6 to 3.0 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
1.7-fold Growth0.5 to 0.9 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
1.7-fold Growth1.4 to 2.3 Mbps
Asia Pacific
1.5-fold Growth1.3 to 2.0 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 38© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Mobile Speed GrowthNearly 2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (1.4 Mbps) to 2018 (2.5 Mbps)
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VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 40© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Internet Traffic by Local Access TechnologyFixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 61% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per
Month
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000 Mobile Data (61% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (10% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)
24%
44%
15%
23% CAGR 2013–2018
17%
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LATAM Traffic by Local Access TechnologyFixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 64% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per
Month
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
9,000,000,000 Mobile Data (66% CAGR)Fixed/Wired (6% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (84% CAGR)Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (18% CAGR)
21%
54%
15%
20% CAGR 2013–2018
10%
Cisco Confidential 42© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 43© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
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Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video GrowthUltra-HD IP Video Will Account for 11% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per
Month
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
20,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
80,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
120,000,000,000Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 11%)High Def (HD) Video (36%, 52%)
25% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
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Higher Definition Content Impacts LATAM IP Video GrowthUltra-HD Will Account for 2.5% of LATAM IP Video Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per
Month
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 2.5%)High Def (HD) Video (12%, 36%)
28% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
Cisco Confidential 46© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 47© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Residential Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
63% (2.5 billion) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access.
86% (1.5 billion) TV households will be digital TV households.
There will be 8 billion fixed residential devices and connections (up from 3.8 billion in 2013).
Average household will have 3.7 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.9 in 2013).
Cisco Confidential 48© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Residential ServicesBy 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Online Music
Social Network-
ing
Online Video
Online Gam-ing
VoIP
Digital TV
Video on Demand
Time Delayed TV
2018 % Adoption
Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion.
CAGR 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 49© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Residential Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
63% (235 million) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access.
71% (122 million) TV households will be digital TV households.
There will be 562 million fixed residential devices and connections (up from 245 million in 2013).
Average household will have 3.1 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
Cisco Confidential 50© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Residential ServicesBy 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Social Networking Will Have Highest Adoption
Note: By 2018, Latin America residential fixed internet population will be 235 million; the number of Latin America TV households will be 171 million.
CAGR 2013–2018
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Online Music
Social Network-
ing
Online Video
Online Gam-ing
VoIP
Digital TV
Video on Demand
Time Delayed TV
2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 51© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 4.8 billion consumer mobile users (64% of population).
There will be 8.9 billion consumer mobile devices and connections.
Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
Cisco Confidential 52© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Consumer Mobile ServicesBy 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR 2013–2018
Note: By 2018, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.8 billion.
20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0%0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%
MMS
Mobile Social Networking
Mobile EmailConsumer LBS
Mobile Gaming
Mobile Banking & Commerce
Mobile Video
Mobile Music
2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 53© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 450 million consumer mobile users (69% of population).
There will be 813 million consumer mobile devices and connections.
Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
Cisco Confidential 54© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Consumer Mobile ServicesBy 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR 2013–2018
Note: By 2018, Latin America consumer mobile population will be 450 million.
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%
MMSMobile Social Networking
Mobile Email
Consumer LBS
Mobile Gam-ing
Mobile Bank-ing & Com-
merce
Mobile VideoMobile Music
2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 55© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Business Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 2.1 billion business Internet users (62% of global work force).
There will be 582 million business mobile users (17% of global work force).
There will be 3.9 billion business devices and connections (up from 2.5 billion in 2013). Average business internet user will have
1.8 devices and connections
There will be 1.4 billion business mobile device and connections (up from 878 million in 2013).
Average business mobile user will have 2.4 mobile devices and connections
Cisco Confidential 56© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Business ServicesBy 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR 2013–2018
Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of business mobile users will be 582 million.
-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
SMS
Mobile Email
Room Based Video Con-ferencing
IP Telephony
Business LBS
Audio Conferencing
Desktop Video Con-ferencing
Web Con-ferencing w/o Video
2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 57© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Business Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 205 million business Internet users (68% of global work force).
There will be 59 million business mobile users (19% of global work force).
There will be 296 million business devices and connections (up from 205 million in 2013). Average business internet user will have
1.4 devices and connections
There will be 134 million business mobile device and connections (up from 90 million in 2013).
Average business mobile user will have 2.3 mobile devices and connections
Cisco Confidential 58© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Business ServicesBy 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR 2013–2018
Note: By 2018, Latin America business Internet population will be 205 million; the number of business mobile users will be 59 million.
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
SMS
Mobile EmailRoom Based Video Con-ferencing
IP Telephony
Business LBS
Audio Con-ferencing
Desktop Video Con-ferencing
Web Conferenc-ing w/o Video
2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 59© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 60© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet TrafficDriven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour
Traffic (Gbps)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Average Hour
Busy Hour
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
28% CAGR
23% CAGR
Cisco Confidential 61© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (LATAM)Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour
Traffic (Gbps)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Average Hour
Busy Hour
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
26% CAGR
20% CAGR
Cisco Confidential 62© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 63© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
1000000000
2000000000
3000000000
4000000000
5000000000
6000000000
7000000000
8000000000
9000000000
10000000000
1.3B
4.7B
0.7B
5BIPv6-Capable Fixed Devices
Globally, By 2018, Nearly 50% (10B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 16% (2B) in 2013
37% CAGR
Number of
Devices (B)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 64© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180
100000000
200000000
300000000
400000000
500000000
600000000
700000000
800000000
900000000
0.05B
0.3B
0.1B
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices
0.5B
In LATAM: By 2018, Nearly 49% (0.8B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 15% (0.1B) in 2013
39% CAGR
Number of
Devices (B)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 65© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 66© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Usage Limits: Fixed vs. MobileGlobally, More Mobile than Fixed Users Are Impacted by Usage Limits
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Country% Broadband HH
> 250 GB% Mobile Users
> 2 GB
Global 2.1% 3.8%
North America 4.7% 21.6%
Western Europe 1.6% 9.5%
Asia Pacific 1.8% 2.3%
Central and Eastern Europe 1.3% 0.9%
Latin America 2.4% 1.0%
Middle East and Africa 0.1% 1.0%
Cisco Confidential 67© 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Cisco VNI Web Sites
• Press Release
• White Papers / FAQs
• Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps
IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]
IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa
Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
Thank you.