cisco visual networking index (vni) mobile data forecast€¦ · cisco visual networking index...

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Mobile Data Forecast U.S. Highlights 2013-2018

Robert Pepper, VP Global Technology Policy Doug Webster, VP Service Provider Marketing February 2014

2 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership

Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Global Mobile Speed Data

Global Forecast Data


Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile Connections

More Mobile Users

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Video


2013 7.0 Billion 2018 10.2 Billion

2013 1.4 Mbps 2018 2.5 Mbps

2013 4.1 Billion 2018 4.9 Billion

2013 53% of Traffic 2018 69% of Traffic


US Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line US Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 8-Fold from 2013─2018

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

1.9 EB

0.4 EB

2.7 EB

1.3 EB

0.9 EB

0.6 EB


50% CAGR 2013–2018


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions

of D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%)

Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%)

Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%)

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share


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800

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions

of D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (3.7%,1.5%) Tablets (8.7%,13.9%)

Laptops (2.8%,2.5%) M2M (9.1%,40.2%)

Smartphones (48.2%,41.1%) Non-Smartphones (27.6%,0.7%)

United States Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Have 41% Share; Non-Smartphones Decline Rapidly M2M and Tablets Gain Share

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share


Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections

2013 2018

Global

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Latin America

Asia-Pacific

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

21%

65%

45%

15%

14%

17%

10%

54%

93%

83%

61%

55%

47%

36%



U.S. Leads Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic

2013 2018

Global

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Latin America

Asia-Pacific

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

88%

98%

95%

75%

81%

85%

76%

96%

100%

100%

95%

96%

95%

90%



Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type

Non-Smartphone 10.8 45

M2M 61 451

Wearable 78 345

Smartphone 529 2,672

Tablet 1,374 5,609

Laptop 2,455 5,095


2013 MBs per Month

2018 MBs per Month

Note: In 2013, 4G Smartphones generated 2 GBs/month and 4G Tablets generated 2.4 GBs/month


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r Con

nect

ions

4G 3G 2G

Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

59%

68%

29%

3%

26%

15%


48%

44%

8%


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100

150

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300

350

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r Con

nect

ions

4G 3G 2G

United States Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share—U.S. Leads 4G Migration

52%

62%

13%

25%

41%

7%


47%

45%

8%


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r Con

nect

ions

4G 3G 2G

Western Europe Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

60%

66%

32%

2%

24%

16%



0

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300

400

500

600

700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r Con

nect

ions

4G 3G 2G

Latin America Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

64%

74%

25%

0.1%

27%

9%


52%

45%

3%


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions

of D

evic

es o

r Con

nect

ions

4G 3G 2G

Asia Pacific Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

58%

74%

2%

24%

29%

13%


52%

38%

9%

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 16 Cisco Confidential 16 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.


In 2013, a 4G connection generated 2.0 GB/mo, 3.7X higher than the 551 MB/mo for non-4G (mostly 3G) connections in North America.



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15

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25

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mbp

s

4G

3G

All Network Types

2G

North America Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 5X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 2X Higher than Average by 2018

24 Mbps

7 Mbps

151 Kbps

5 Mbps



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1.0

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2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

United States Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G In The US, 4G Will Be Over Three-Fourths of Mobile Traffic by 2018

56%

77%

22%

1%

43%

0.1%



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Will Be 51% of Mobile Traffic by 2018

30%

51%

46%

9%

60%

3%



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Mobile File Sharing (2.3%)

Mobile M2M (8.4%)

Mobile Audio (13.9%)

Mobile Web/Data (7.1%)

Mobile Video (68.3%)

United States Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 68 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018


50% CAGR 2013–2018

Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share


Top Global Traffic Generating Apps


Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps (Android) Facebook Social Media

YouTube Video Streaming

Netflix Video Streaming

TubeMate Video Downloading

Instagram Image Sharing

TuneIn Audio Streaming

SoundCloud Audio Streaming

Flipboard News

Skype Communications

Twitter Communications

Dropbox File Sharing

Spotify Audio Streaming

Pandora Audio Streaming

Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Android) Netflix Video Streaming

Instagram Image Sharing

Dropbox File Sharing

Facebook Social Media

YouTube Video Streaming

Flipboard News

TuneIn Audio Streaming

VLC Media Player Video Streaming

BSPlayer Video Streaming

Spotify Audio Streaming

NYTimes News

Hulu Video Streaming

TubeMate Video Streaming


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions

of M

2M C

onne

ctio

ns 3G

2G

4G

71%

41%

Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 6-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G

43% CAGR 2013–2018


28%

35%

51%

14%

50%

9%

2.0 B

1.6 B

1.1 B

0.8 B

0.5 B 0.3 B

* In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections. In 2014 ,1.5% connections, in 2015 , 3% connections and in 2016 ,5.6% connections are 4G.

34%

64%

41%

56%

47%

48%


0

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300

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions

of M

2M C

onne

ctio

ns 3G

2G

4G

56%

20%

United States M2M Connection Growth US M2M Connections will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, Nearly a Third M2M Connections Will be On 4G

50% CAGR 2013–2018


42%

15%

51%

33%

57%

9%

271 M

207 M

149 M

100 M

63 M

35 M 51%

45%

57%

35%

59%

26%

15% 24%


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

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60

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100

120

140

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% w

ith E

mbe

dded

Cel

lula

r Con

nect

ivity

Mill

ions

of C

onne

cted

Wea

rabl

es

22 M

127 M

Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, 13 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity

177 M


52% CAGR 2013–2018

58 M 36 M

88 M


0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% o

f Sm

artp

hone

Tra

ffic

Mon

thly

Tra

ffic

(PB

)

34

2

Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 36-Fold from 2013-2018

61

17

9 4


105% CAGR 2013–2018


0.0

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7.0

8.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices


United States Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 64% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 57% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

36%

64%

*Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks


0

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10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices


Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 52% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 45% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

48%

52%

*Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th

Mobile Data (57% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (14% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi - Mobile Offload (72% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi - Wi-Fi Only (27% CAGR)

United States IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Wi-Fi From Mobile Offload Growing Fastest

51%

34%

6%

21% CAGR 2012–2017


10%


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2G 3G 4G

Mob

ile a

nd O

ffloa

d Tr

affic

from

Mob

ile-

Con

nect

ed D

evic

es

Mobile Traffic

Offload Traffic

US Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2018 4G Devices Offloads As Much Traffic As 3G and More Than 2G

64% 64%

50%

50% 36% 36%



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

Perc

enta

ge o

f Top

1 p

erce

nt

to T

otal

MB

/mo

Top 1 %

Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2013 Top 1% Generated10% in Sept 2013—early adopters becoming new normal

24%

16%

52%

10%



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Greater than 5 GB

Greater than 2 GB

Greater than 200 MB

Greater than 20 MB

Greater than 1 MB

Perc

enta

ge o

f Use

rs

Oct-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month

3%

24%

75%

93% 97%



Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

% N

umbe

r of M

obile

Dat

a Pl

ans

Unlimited

Tiered

425 MB

922 MB

739 MB 1,261 MB

1,890 MB

1,081 MB



Number of Shared Plans Increase

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oct-12 Sep-13

% N

umbe

r of M

obile

Dat

a Pl

ans

Regular Plans

Shared Plans

648 MB

792 MB

1.4 GB

946 MB



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tbps

Average Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% in 2018



Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2013–2018 Get more info—see Tools and Resources

www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]

Thank you.

cisco visual networking index (vni) mobile data forecast€¦ · cisco visual networking index...

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