estudio sobre internet 2011 2016 95420143 vni global ip traffic forecast 2011 2016

7/29/2019 Estudio Sobre Internet 2011 2016 95420143 VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast 2011 2016

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2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1

Cisco Confidential 1 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI)

Global Forecast Update; 20112016

May 2012Under Embargo Until May 30, 2012


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Service Adoption

Forecast

Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.

Fixed & Mobile IP

Traffic Forecast

ResidentialMobileBusiness


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By 2016, global IP traffic willreach an annual run rate of1.3 zettabytes per year

1.3 zettabytes is equal to:

10X more than all IP trafficgenerated in 2008 (121 exabytes)

38 million DVDs per hour

What is a zettabyte?

One trillion gigabytes

Approximately 1021(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

Source:Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016


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94 EBper mo

31 EBper mo

110 EBper mo

77 EBper mo

59 EBper mo

44 EBper mo

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 20112016

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


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More Devices

More Internet Users

Faster Broadband Speeds

More Rich Media Content

GrowthCatalysts

Nearly 19 Billion Connections 4-Fold Speed Increase

3.4 Billion Internet Users 1.2 Million Video Minutes/Second


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North America

2.9 Billion by 2016CAGR 14.1%

Western Europe


Central/Eastern Europe


Latin America


Middle East & Africa


Asia Pacific




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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NumberofDevices(B)

372M

3.57B

57.2% CAGR 20112016



8/33 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices

4.03B

NumberofDev

ices(B)

49% CAGR 20112016

372M

3.57B

662M




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

IPv6-Capable Fixed Business Devices IPv6-Capable Fixed Consumer Devices

2.45B

NumberofDevices(B) 65.2%

CAGR

91M

1.12B

281M


54.2%CAGR

57.2% CAGR 20112016



North America

269 Million by 2016CAGR 1.6%

Western Europe




Latin America




Asia Pacific





=

=

Tablet

Internet-Enabled 3DTV

Internet-Enabled HDTV

64-bit Laptop/PC

Gaming Consoles

1.2 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

= 4.1 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

= 2.0 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

=3.2 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)

3.4 X (monthly 32-bit laptop fixed traffic)




North America

3.5-Fold growth11 to 37 Mbps

Western Europe




Latin America

2.8-Fold growth4.2 to 12 Mbps


2.5-Fold growth3.4 to 8.4 Mbps

Asia Pacific

4.4-Fold growth8.1 to 36 Mbps




10 Mbps

44%of all broadbandconnections by 2016

5 Mbps



2 Online Video(HD Streams)

1 SD BusinessVideoconference

1 Online musicstream

3 Online Video(HD Streams)

1 Business DesktopConference call

4 Online musicstreams

1 Online Gamingstream


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10 Mbps


5 Mbps



100Mbps


20 minutes 2 minutes

Online Video (HD movie download)

41 minutes

Online Video (HD movie download) Online Video (HD movie download)


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Fastest Growing

Residential Services

TAM and Devices for

Residential Market

Highest Penetrated

Residential ServiceTV Households2011: 1.7 Billion2016: 1.9 Billion

Residential Internet Users2011: 1.7 Billion2016: 2.3 Billion

Devices/Connections2011: 2.4 Billion2016: 5.4 Billion

Digital TV13.8% CAGR2011: 694 Million2016: 1.3 Billion

VoIP10.6% CAGR2011: 560 Million2016: 928 Million

Online Music2011: 1.1 Billion63% of Internet Users

2016:1.8 Billion79% of Internet Users


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Fastest Growing

Business Services

TAM and Devices for

Business Market

Highest Penetrated

Business ServicesBusiness Internet Users2011: 1.6 Billion2016: 2.3 Billion

Business Mobile Users2011: 483 Million2016: 569 Million

Devices/Connections2011: 2.2 Billion2016: 5.0 Billion

Desktop Video43.2% CAGR2011: 36 Million2016: 219 Million

LBS*42.9% CAGR2011: 27 Million2016: 158 Million

Instant Messaging (IM)2011: 470 Million30% of Business Internet Users

2016:745 Million32% of Business Internet Users

SMS (texting)2011: 364 Million75% of Business Mobile Users

2016: 498 Million88% of Business Mobile Users

* LBS=Location Based Services


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2016

32.3 GB

Traffic/month

2011

11.5 GB

Traffic/month

50 GB

Traffic/month

Future


3 Online HD movievideos13 VoD episodes

6 HD Desktop videoconferencing calls

122 Online music

tracks

2 3D Online HD movievideos8 Online HD movievideos38 VoD episodes


307 Online musictracks

2 Online 3D movievideos11 Online HD movievideos53 VoD episodes




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2016

83.7 GBTraffic/month

2011

26.2 GBTraffic/month

100 GB

Traffic/month

Future


7 Online HD movievideos30 VoD episodes

12 HD Desktopvideo conferencingcalls

239Online music

tracks

4 3D movies20 HD movies95 VoD episodes



6 3D movies23 HD movies114 VoD episodes

40 HD Desktopvideo conferencingcalls



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North America

27.5 EB/Month by 201622% CAGR, 3X Growth

Western Europe




Latin America

7.6 EB/Month by 2016

49% CAGR, 7X Growth



Asia Pacific




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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PetabytesperMonth

Non-PC Based Traffic

PC-Based Traffic

69%

22%

78%


29% CAGR 20112016

31%


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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Petabytespe

rMonth

Mobile Data (78% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-fi (34% CAGR) 39%

51%

10%

29% CAGR 20112016



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0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Petabytes/Month

Business

Consumer12%

88%

16%

84%


29% CAGR 20102015


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0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PetabytesperM

onth

VoIP

Online Gaming

File Sharing

Web/Data

Internet Video

Online Gaming and VoIP forecast to be 0.73% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2016

22%

23%

54%


29% CAGR 20112016


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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Petabytes

perMonth

Video CallingAmbient Video and Internet PVR

Internet-Video-to-PC: LiveMobile VideoInternet-Video-to-PC: Short FormInternet-Video-to-TVInternet-Video-to-PC: Long Form 8%

11%

37%

8%

14%

14%


8%


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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PetabytesperMonth

Business Mobile Data

Business Managed IP *

Business Internet *

27%

54%

* Video conferencing is included in both the Business Internet and Managed IP categories


22% CAGR 20112016

19%


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PetabytesperMonth

Video Phones

Executive Video Conferencing

Multiscreen Room Video Conferencing

Desktop Video Conferencing

Singlescreen Room Video Conferencing

Web Conferencing with Video

18%

61%

Multiscreen/Executive Videoconferencing and Videophones will be 1.4 % of all business video traffic in 2015

19%


42% CAGR 20112016


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Total IP Traffic 110 Exabytes per month by 2016

By 2016, annual global IP traffic will reach 1.3 zettabyte

Fixed Internet 80.6 Exabytes per month by 2016

Managed IP 18.1 Exabytes per month by 2016

By 2016, 1.2 M video minutes cross the network each second

Business IP video conferencing will grow 6-fold from 2011-2016

Mobile Data

Mobile video will increase 18-fold from 2011 to 2016

10.8 Exabytes per month by 2016



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Press Releases

White Papers / FAQs

Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps

IP Traffic Forecast inquiries:[email protected] Adoption Forecast inquiries:[email protected]


IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vniService Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa


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Thank you.


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In 2011, there were 2.4B residential devices and connections;by 2016, there will be 5.4B residential devices and connections(17.3% CAGR).

In 2011, there were 5.6B consumer mobile devices and connections;

by 2016, there will be 8.4B consumer mobile devices and connections(8.3% CAGR).

In 2011, there were 2.2B business devices and connections;by 2016, there will be 5.1B business devices and connections(18% CAGR).



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Digital TV will be the fastest growing service across allresidential service categories (TV & Internet) from 2011to 2016 (13.8% CAGR).

Mobile video will be the fastest growing consumer

mobile service from 2011 to 2016. (42.9% CAGR).

Desktop video conferencing will be the fastest growingservice across all business service categories (mobile &fixed) from 2011 to 2016 (43.2% CAGR).



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In 2011, the average Internet user generated 12 GB/mo;by 2016, the average Internet user will generate 30 GB/mo.

By 2016, more than one-third of total IP traffic will comefrom devices other than PCs.

By 2016, wi-fi will account for nearly half of all IP traffic.

By 2016, the gigabyte equivalent of all movies ever madewill cross global IP networks every 3 minutes.


estudio sobre internet 2011 2016 95420143 vni global ip traffic forecast 2011 2016

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