dr. robert pepper & mobile visual networking index (vni) - 2013
DESCRIPTION
A presentation, which was originally presented by Cisco's Dr Robert Pepper surrounding the 2013 Global Mobile Visual Networking Index. The presentation out lines the growth in mobile data traffic in Australia and New Zealand.TRANSCRIPT
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Dr. Robert PepperVice PresidentGlobal Technology Policy
6 March 2013
ANZ Highlights from Cisco 2013 Mobile VNI Forecast and 2012 Cisco Global Cloud Index
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought LeadershipCisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
Global Mobile Speed Data
Global Forecast Data
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 3
Mobile Momentum
Metrics
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
By 2017…More Mobile Users
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Connections
More Mobile Video
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
2G 3G 4G
2G 3G 4G
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.00
10,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
70,000,000.00
80,000,000.00E
xa
by
tes
pe
r M
on
th
0.056 EB
0.013 EB
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-LineAustralia Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 6X from 2012 to 2017
0.075 EB
0.04 EB
0.028 EB
0.019 EB
43% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.000
2,000,000.000
4,000,000.000
6,000,000.000
8,000,000.000
10,000,000.000
12,000,000.000
14,000,000.000E
xa
by
tes
pe
r M
on
th
0.009 EB
0.001 EB
New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-LineNew Zealand Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8X from 2012 to 2017
0.011 EB
0.007 EB
0.004 EB
0.003 EB
50% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 6
IP Traffic in 2012 Internet & Mobile Traffic in 20120
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
45,000,000,000
50,000,000,00042,165,491,64
8.0
32,711,013,390.0
43,073,902,911.0
33,874,517,380.0
Projected in 2009
Actual
VNI Projections and Actuals (Global)Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 7
Top Trends
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 8
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 9
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000 Other Portable Devices (.9%)Tablets (2.3%)Laptops (2.6%)M2M (16.5%)Smartphones (27.4%)Non-Smartphones (50.3%)
Bil
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Global Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2017, Smartphones Will Gain 11 Points to Reach 27% Share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
8% CAGR 2012–2017
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000 Other Portable Devices (.4%)Tablets (1.3%)Laptops (2.2%)M2M (12.6%)Smartphones (25.9%)Non-Smartphones (57.7%)
Ex
ab
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er
Mo
nth
APAC Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 26% Share
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
9% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 11
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000 Other Portable Devices (.3%)Tablets (5.0%)Laptops (13.0%)M2M (28.0%)Smartphones (51.3%)Non-Smartphones (2.4%)
Mil
lio
ns
of
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vic
es
Australia Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 51% Share
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
8% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Other Portable Devices (.3%)Tablets (3.1%)Laptops (6.6%)M2M (29.1%)Smartphones (53.5%)Non-Smartphones (7.4%)
Mil
lio
ns
of
De
vic
es
New Zealand Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 54% Share
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
8% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 13
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000 Other Portable Devices (.4%)Tablets (2.9%)Laptops (9.6%)M2M (30.8%)Smartphones (55.1%)Non-Smartphones (1.3%)
Mil
lio
ns
of
De
vic
es
Korea Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 55% Share
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
6% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 14
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000 Other Portable Devices (.3%)Tablets (2.9%)Laptops (5.2%)M2M (31.4%)Smartphones (56.8%)Non-Smartphones (3.4%)
Mil
lio
ns
of
De
vic
es
Japan Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 57% Share
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
9% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 15
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0
500,000,000.0
1,000,000,000.0
1,500,000,000.0
2,000,000,000.0
2,500,000,000.0 Other Portable Devices (.5%)Tablets (2.0%)Laptops (1.9%)M2M (14.7%)Smartphones (30.5%)Non-Smartphones (50.4%)
Bil
lio
ns
of
De
vic
es
China Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 31% Share
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
9% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0
500,000,000.0
1,000,000,000.0
1,500,000,000.0
2,000,000,000.0
2,500,000,000.0 Other Portable Devices (.4%)Tablets (.4%)Laptops (.9%)M2M (8.6%)Smartphones (18.1%)Non-Smartphones (71.6%)
Bil
lio
ns
of
De
vic
es
India Mobile Device Growth by TypeBy 2017, Smartphones Will Reach 18% Share
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
10% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 17
Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type
Non-Smartphone
20172012
6.8 31
MBs per MonthMBs per Month
M2M 64 330
Smartphone 342 2,660
4G Smartphone 1,302 5,114
Tablet 820 5,387
Laptop 2,503 5,731
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
Other Portable Devices (2.2%)
M2M (4.7%)
Home Gateways (4.8%)
Non-Smartphones (5.7%)
Tablets (10.0%)
Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%)
Smartphones (48.3%)
Ex
ab
yte
s p
er
Mo
nth
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
(Figures in legend refer to traffic share in
2016.)
2012 FORECAST
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 19
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000Other Portable Devices (.2%)Non-Smartphones (1.4%)M2M (5.1%)Tablets (11.7%)Laptops (14.0%)Smartphones (67.5%)
Ex
ab
yte
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er
Mo
nth
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by DeviceIn 2013, Smartphone Traffic Surpass Mobile Laptop Traffic
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.00
10,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
70,000,000.00
80,000,000.00 Other Portable Devices (.1%)Non-Smartphones (.1%)M2M (8.3%)Tablets (13.7%)Laptops (39.5%)Smartphones (38.3%)
Ex
ab
yte
s p
er
Mo
nth
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 21
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.000
2,000,000.000
4,000,000.000
6,000,000.000
8,000,000.000
10,000,000.000
12,000,000.000
14,000,000.000 Other Portable Devices (.1%)Non-Smartphones (.4%)M2M (7.5%)Tablets (10.4%)Laptops (20.8%)Smartphones (60.8%)
Ex
ab
yte
s p
er
Mo
nth
New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 22
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 23
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,0004G3G2G
Bill
ion
s o
f D
evic
es o
r C
on
nec
tio
ns
Global Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
57%
76%
23%
1%
33%
10%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,0004G3G2G
Mill
ion
s o
f D
evic
es o
r C
on
nec
tio
ns
Australia Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
77%
77%
20%
1% 5%
19%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,0004G3G2G
Mill
ion
s o
f D
evic
es o
r C
on
nec
tio
ns
New Zealand Connections by Network Type2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
81%
59%
41%
0% 7%
11%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 26
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
2000000000
4000000000
6000000000
8000000000
10000000000 2-2.5G
3-3.5G
4G
Exa
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on
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Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G4G Will Be 10% of Connections and 45% of Traffic in 2017
14%
45%
51%
10%76%
4%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 27
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
80000000
2-2.5G
3-3.5G
4G
Exa
byt
es p
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on
th
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G4G Will Be 19% of Connections and 40% of Traffic in 2017
40%
60%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
89%
9%
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 28
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
2-2.5G
3-3.5G
4G
Exa
byt
es p
er M
on
th
New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G4G Will Be 11% of Connections and 29% of Traffic in 2017
29%
71%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
7%
93%
1%
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 29
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 30
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
16,000,000,000Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Exa
byt
es p
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on
th
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload22% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 201611% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011
22%
78%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
2012 FORECAST
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 31
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Exa
byt
es p
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on
th
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 201733% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
46%
54%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 32
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160.00
20,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
120,000,000.00
140,000,000.00
160,000,000.00Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Exa
byt
es p
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on
th
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload12% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 20165% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011
12%
88%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
2012 FORECAST
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 33
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.00
20,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
120,000,000.00Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Exa
byt
es p
er M
on
th
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload26% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 201715% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
26%
64%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 34
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.0
1,000,000,000.0
2,000,000,000.0
3,000,000,000.0
4,000,000,000.0
5,000,000,000.0
6,000,000,000.0Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices
Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Exa
byt
es p
er M
on
th
US Mobile Data Traffic Offload66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 201747% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
66%
34%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 35
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 36
By 2017, there will be 1.4 mobile connections (devices and M2M) for every member of the world’s population.
North America has the most mobile connections per capita (2.2). The Middle East & Africa has the least (1.1).
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 37
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
38,736,123
56,207,801
19,578,730 21,610,900
Devices
Users
Mill
ion
s
Australia Mobile Users and DevicesUsers Grow at 2% CAGR, Devices Grow at 8% CAGR 2.2 mobile connections/person
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 38
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 5 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud Readiness
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 39
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.00
10,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
70,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
Mobile File Sharing (5.5%)
Mobile M2M (8.3%)
Mobile Web/Data (22.9%)
Mobile Video (63.3%)
Ex
ab
yte
s p
er
Mo
nth
43% CAGR 2012–2017
Australia Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Reach 63 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Figures (n) refer to 2017 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170.000
2,000,000.000
4,000,000.000
6,000,000.000
8,000,000.000
10,000,000.000
12,000,000.000
14,000,000.000
Mobile File Sharing (3.8%)
Mobile M2M (7.5%)
Mobile Web/Data (25.5%)
Mobile Video (63.1%)
Ex
ab
yte
s p
er
Mo
nth
50% CAGR 2012–2017
New Zealand Mobile Data Traffic Growth / AppsVideo to Reach 63 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Figures (n) refer to 2017 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 41
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
74300027% 76342650% 78320079% 80319775% 82373884% 84473275%
25699973% 23657350% 21679921% 19680225% 17626116% 15526725%
Mobile Cloud Traffic Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic
Global Mobile Cloud TrafficCloud Accounted for 74% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2012Cloud Will Account for 84% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 42
Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Individual Apps
Basic Cloud AppsNetwork Requirements:
Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps
Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps
Latency: Above 160 ms
Intermediate Cloud AppsNetwork Requirements:
Download Speed: 751–2,500 kbps
Upload Speed: 251–1,000 kbps
Latency: 159 - 100 ms
Advanced Cloud AppsNetwork Requirements:
Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps
Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbpsLatency: Less than 100 ms
• Text communications (email, instant messaging)
• Web browsing• File sharing
(low-res video)• Web conferencing• Social networking
(basic text only)• Stream basic video/ music
• File sharing (high-res video)• IP Telephony• ERP / CRM• Basic gaming (single player)• Basic video chat
(low-res video)• IP audio conferencing• Basic video conferencing
(low-res video)• Advanced social networking
(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming
• HD Industrial design collaboration• Advanced gaming
(multi player)• Advanced video chat
(high-res video)• Advanced file sharing
(super high-res video)• HD audio conferencing• HD video conferencing
(high-res video)• Stream super HD video
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 43
Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps
Basic Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements:
Download Speed: ~1900 kbps
Upload Speed: ~600 kbps
Latency: Above 160 ms
Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements:
Download Speed: ~7,000 kbps
Upload Speed: ~2,600 kbps
Latency: 159 - 100 ms
Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements:
Download Speed: ~21,000 kbps
Upload Speed: ~9,000 kbpsLatency: Less than 100 ms
• Text communications (email, instant messaging)
• Web browsing• File sharing
(low-res video)• Web conferencing• Social networking
(basic text only)• Stream basic video/ music
• File sharing (high-res video)• IP Telephony• ERP / CRM• Basic gaming (single player)• Basic video chat
(low-res video)• IP audio conferencing• Basic video conferencing
(low-res video)• Advanced social networking
(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming
• HD Industrial design collaboration• Advanced gaming
(multi player)• Advanced video chat
(high-res video)• Advanced file sharing
(super high-res video)• HD audio conferencing• HD video conferencing
(high-res video)• Stream super HD video
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 44
Fixed Speeds + Latency: Australia
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Ave
rage
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
Australia Ave download: 7.9mbpsAve upload: 1.2mbpsAve latency: 54ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 45
Fixed Speeds + Latency: New Zealand
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Ave
rage
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
New ZealandAve download: 7.0mbpsAve upload: 1.3mbpsAve latency: 65ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 46
Mobile Speeds + Latency: Australia
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 40000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Ave
rage
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
Australia Ave download: 2.9mbpsAve upload: 1.0mbpsAve latency: 161ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 47
Mobile Speeds + Latency: APAC Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 40000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
950.18636361009.755995
937.107546699999
206.1725443
549.891919899997570.567415699998
747.8064777
343.6574996
708.898503
100ms - 159ms Above 160ms
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Ave
rage
Upl
oad
Spee
d (k
bps)
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 48
Summary/Implications
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 49
Summary and Implications
More users, each using more bandwidth Each user will have more/more powerful devices Accelerated smartphone adoptionVideo and cloud driving demand and consumption4G will dramatically increase data consumptionAdvanced Cloud Apps Required Advanced NetworksOff-load increasingly important—small cell complementNeed more Spectrum – Licensed and UnlicensedNeed fibre for backhaul, middle mile and aggregation in accessNetworks becoming heterogeneous; need to be “fit for purpose”
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 50
Thank you.