City of Guelph Official Plan

Schedule 1

City of Guelph Official Plan

Schedule 2

Commercial Structure and Supply

City of Guelph Inventory Nodes

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

13

12

01 1 2 3 4 Km

1. Downtown Guelph 6. Silvercreek & Willow 11. Other Northwest Guelph

2. Gordon & Clair 7. Stone & Edinburgh 12. Other Northeast Guelph

3. Paisley & Imperial 8. Eramosa & Stevenson 13. Other South Guelph

4. Woodlawn & Woolwich 9. Speedvale & Stevenson

5. Kortright & Gordon 10. Woodlawn Node- City of Guelph

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.; Basemap: ESRI ArcGIS.

Commercial Structure and Supply

Summary of Commercial Space within the City of Guelph

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.1)

Based on inventory and site inspections completed by TER in June / July 2017. Rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.

Total Woodlawn Node:301,000 Sq. Ft

Total Speedvale & Stevenson:115,900 Sq. Ft

Total Eramosa & Stevenson:244,400 Sq. Ft

Total Stone & Edinburgh:1,276,800 Sq. Ft

Total Silvercreek & Willow:577,500 Sq. Ft

Total Kortright & Gordon:199,900 Sq. Ft

Total Woodlawn & Woolwich:565,400 Sq. Ft

Total Paisley & Imperial:327,900 Sq. Ft

Total Gordon & Clair:385,600 Sq. Ft

Total Downtown Guelph:1,565,100 Sq. Ft

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000

10. Woodlawn Node

9. Speedvale & Stevenson

8. Eramosa & Stevenson

7. Stone & Edinburgh

6. Silvercreek & Willow

5. Kortright & Gordon

4. Woodlawn & Woolwich

3. Pailsey & Imperial

2. Gordon & Clair

1. Downtown Guelph

Vacant Commercial Space (Sq. Ft.) Occupied Commercial Space (Sq. Ft.)

Commercial Structure and Supply

2017 City of Guelph Residents Retail Expenditures Distribution

2008 2003

0.0% 0.0%

98.1% 99.9%

98.0% 99.6%

98.5% 96.9%

81.8% 53.7%

81.8% 88.8%

94.1% 68.4%

86.2% 97.5%

n.a. n.a.

97.8% 96.9%

89.9% 78.3%

66.7% 59.0%

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.1)

Refer to Appendix D for detailed figures.

Previous Guelph Share

61.0%

80.4%

81.9%

82.3%

83.7%

84.9%

88.2%

97.0%

97.9%

98.6%

98.7%

99.7%

39.0%

19.6%

18.1%

17.7%

16.3%

15.1%

11.8%

3.0%

2.1%

1.4%

1.3%

0.3%

Furniture, Home Furnishings…

Apparel & Accessories Stores

Building & Home Supply Stores

Automotive

Specialty Food Stores

Department Stores

Specialty Stores

General Merchandise Stores

Canadian Tire

Pharmacies & Personal Care…

Supermarkets

Costco

How Much is Spent in Guelph vs. Other Areas

What You B

uy

City of Guelph Other

Commercial Structure and Supply

Population Growth Relative to Commercial Space (2008 – 2017)

…

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

140,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

6,500,000

7,000,000

7,500,000

8,000,000

8,500,000

9,000,000

2008 2012 2017

Popula

tion

Com

merc

ial S

pace (

Square

Feet)

Total Commercial Space Population

Commercial Structure and Supply

Potential Future Development Intensification / Planned

Undeveloped Commercial Land

01 1 2 3 4 Km

Designation- Downtown Intensification- Community Mixed-Use Centre- Neighbourhood Commercial Centre- Service Commercial - Mixed Use-Corridor

- City of Guelph

Potential Future

Development:

Intensification /

Planned

Undeveloped

Commercial

Land

Designation Amount (sq. ft.) < 2 Acres 2 - 4 Acres 5-10 Acres >10 Acres

Community Mixed-Use Centre 269,800 26.6 1 2 1

Neighbourhood Commercial Centre 0 9.1 1 1 1

Service Commercial 0 50.1 12 11 1

Corporate Business Park 0 12.0 1

Low Density Residential 0 1.0 2

Mixed Office Commercial 0 1.9 1

Mixed-Use Corridor Commercial 0 1.8 1

Downtown Intensification 301,700

Mixed-Use Corridor Commercial (GID) 200,000

Subtotal 771,500 102.4 16 16 2 2

Parcel Size

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.. based on data provided by the City of Guelph. Please see Appendix F, Figure F-1 for a

description of the individual sites within each category.

Commercial Demand Analysis

City of Guelph Population Forecast 2016-2041

13

6,0

00

15

3,0

00

16

5,0

00

17

5,0

00

18

4,0

00

19

1,0

00

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2016-2041

City of Guelph 136,000 153,000 165,000 175,000 184,000 191,000

Period Change 17,000 12,000 10,000 9,000 7,000 55,000

Average Annual Growth Rate 2.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.6%

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.

Commercial Demand Analysis

Retail Expenditure Forecast

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.1)

See Appendix E for background calculations.

$85.5

$103.0

$118.3

$132.3

$147.2

$161.0

$327.8

$368.3

$396.7

$420.2

$441.2

$457.4

$864.4

$1,0

16.5

$1,1

42.1

$1,2

60.4

$1,3

75.2

$1,4

79.7

$-

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Beer, Wine & Liquor Food Oriented Retail Non Food Oriented Retail

Commercial Demand Analysis

Additional Warranted Commercial Space

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.

936,700

1,598,400

2,138,700

2,616,300

2,986,100

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Com

merc

ial S

pace S

q. Ft.

Commercial Demand Analysis

City of Guelph Commercial Land Needs 2016 – 2041 (1(2(3

2016 2016 - 2021 2021 - 2026 2026 - 2031 2031 - 2036 2036 - 2041

Period Commercial Demand (sq. ft.) (1

936,700 661,700 540,300 477,600 369,800

Active Development Applications 599,800

Potential Future Development: Intensification / Planned

Intensification: Community Mixed-Use Centre 269,800

Intensification: Downtown 180,000 60,850 60,850

Planned: Mixed-Use Corridor Commercial (GID) 100,000 100,000

599,800 269,800 280,000 160,850 60,850

Surplus/Shortfall (sq. ft.) 336,900 391,900 260,300 316,750 308,950

Net Land Required - Acres (@25% coverage) 30.9 36.0

Net Land Required - Acres (@30% coverage) 19.9

Net Land Required - Acres (@35% coverage) 20.8

Net Land Required - Acres (@40% coverage) 17.7

Cummulative Surplus/Shortfall (acres) (3

102.4 71.5 35.5 15.6 -5.2 -22.9

Cummulative Unmet Demand (sq. ft.) 0 0 0 78,900 387,850

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.1)

Replicated from Figure 6-5.2)

Totals from Figures 6-1 & 6-2. Phasing based on TER professional judgement and City of Guelph planning department.3)

The base supply of 102.4 acres of undeveloped commercial land is from Figure 6-1.

Total Potential Supply (excl. Undeveloped Commercial

Land) (2

Commercial Demand Analysis

Distribution of Commercial Demand 2016 - 2041

Source: Tate Economic Research Inc.

Active Development Applications , 599,800

, 20%

Intensification: Community Mixed-Use

Centre, 269,800 , 9%

Intensification: Downtown , 301,700 ,

10%

Planned: Mixed-Use Corridor Commercial

(GID), 200,000 , 7%

Undeveloped Commercial Land,

1,226,950 , 41%

Unmet Demand, 387,850 , 13%

Commercial Demand Analysis

Distribution of Undeveloped Commercial Sites by

Parcel Size

Source: Tate Economic Research inc.

16

(44%)

16

(44%)

2

(6%)

2

(6%)

< 2 Acres

2-4 Acres

5-10 Acres

>10 Acres