Civil War Termination

1816-1997

10 Deadliest Civil Wars(Based on Battle-Deaths)

• Greek Independence (180,000)• Mexican Caste War/Maya Revolt (200,000)• Spanish Civil War (200,000)• Afghanistan 1978-1992 (200,000)• US Civil War (650,000)• Russian Civil War (775,000)• Chinese Civil War 1930-1936 (838,000) • Vietnam War (985,000)• Chinese Civil War 1946-1950 (1,250,000)• Chinese Rebellions 1860* to 1873 (2,450,000)

– Would be even deadlier if battle-deaths prior to China’s entry into the world-system in 1860 were included.

Civil War Outcomes, 1816-1997

Outcome # of Wars

Percentage of All Wars

Percentage Ending With

Formal Agreement

Percentage Followed By

Massacre

Average Duration in Years

Percentage Won By

Government

Complete Defeat

101 51.27 7.92 57.43 2.27 66.34

Surrender With Amnesty

22 11.17 45.45 9.09 2.17 72.73

Cosmetic Concessions

38 19.29 65.79 5.26 3.43 71.05

Genuine Compromise

31 15.74 90.32 3.23 5.19 N / A

Stalemate 5 2.54 20.00 0.00 5.57 N / A

Governmental advantage has been much less pronounced recently – while governments won about 65% of civil wars from 1816 to 1949, they won 54% of wars between 1950 and 1974 and only 37% of wars terminated since then.

Civil Warfare Over Time

1816 to 1824

1825 to 1849

1850 to 1874

1875 to 1899

1900 to 1924

1925 to 1949

1950 to 1974

1975 to 1997

Number of Wars 5 22 28 16 23 21 39 43

Average Battle-Deaths

39,400 27,346 119,423 12,993 45,233 140,980 51, 813 32, 902

Average Battle-Deaths Per 10,000

1.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.3 2.9 4.2 5.0

Average Intensity 24 151 93 28 89 143 72 134

Average Duration in Years

3.1 2.9 1.8 1.1 1.1 2.7 4.5 4.4

Intervention Over Time

1816 to

1824

1825 to 1849

1850 to 1874

1875 to 1899

1900 to 1924

1925 to 1949

1950 to 1974

1975 to 1997

Number of Wars 5 22 28 16 23 21 39 43

Interv. Freq. 80.00% 36.36% 25.00% 31.25% 34.78% 23.81% 48.72% 51.16%

Average Number Actors Per Interv.

1.75 1.50 1.14 2.80 3.63 2.20 2.68 3.95

Average Number Troops Per Interv. Per Actor

54,745 36,674 29,193 14,447 16,217 51,587 20,656 47,914

Intervention Summary

No Pro-Rebel Intervention

Pro-Rebel Intervention

No Pro-Government Intervention

119(60.41%)

24(12.18%)

Pro-Government Intervention

29(14.72%)

25(12.69%)

Government Advantage

Government Advantage

Military Balance and War Outcome

Military Balance, Intervention, and Compromise