claire craig - future of cities
TRANSCRIPT
2 Foresight Future of Cities
Thinking about the future has a long history – some things come to pass…
Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902
Letchworth Garden City, 2013
Uxcester Garden City, 2015
3 Foresight Future of Cities
… others ideas to varying degrees
1979
Motopia, 1963
Post-disaster housing, 2009
5 Foresight Future of Cities
In conversation with Whitehall departments:
DfT: Future Transport PolicyDH: GBP 17 billion savings
In conversation with over 20 local authorities, specifically
highlighted in relation to:
Social inequalityAttractiveness
Low carbon
Interest is widespread
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Enhancing potential evidence-based support for long-term decision-making
Foresight Future of Cities
Greater availability of data is driving new
analytical approaches
Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for
Active Cities development
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Heritage
Attractiveness of place
Creative Economy
Teacher attraction & retention
Housing
Student performance
School capacity
Land availability
Quality urban form
EmploymentWell-being
Minimising isolation & loneliness
Neighbourliness
Cultural events& activitiesUniversities
Innovation
Economic productivity
Connectivity
New technology
Agglomeration opportunities
Short commute
Strong labour marketActive travel
Travel to work
Challenges for evidence:1. Interdependent nature of cities
ICT infrastructure
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Challenges for evidence:2. Long time horizons of influence
New towns
Green beltsCity deals
GLAService economy
Railway investment
Devolution
Municipal bonds
Car-oriented development
Digital technologies
Cotton trade
Canals
National Grid
Growth of UK Ports
Brownfielddevelopment
Welfare state
Shipbuilding
Imp
ort
ance
of
citi
es a
s au
ton
om
ou
s u
nit
s
2000s1900s1800s
Increasing obesity levels
City networks
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Evidence can impact on long-term and cross-sectoral
Foresight Future of Cities
£3,200 of lifetime benefits for every £1 invested in use
of broader evidence and new analytics
Medway project successfully supported young people
into education and employment, through drawing on
wider range of evidence
Wide and long term impacts on individuals and society
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Foresight response 1:Diverse evidence & methods
Foresight Future of Cities
Major city empowerment
London-centric
Smaller cities focus
Baseline 2037
“What-if” scenarios
Speculative design
Review of evidence Future projections
Data analytics and modelling
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Foresight response 2:Co-creation in local realities
Foresight Future of Cities
For evidence to create buy-in and effect long-term impact, essential to have co-creation approaches to development of scientific evidence base
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Bristol Foresight project
Foresight Future of Cities
Working with Bristol City Council on a 50 year
‘living vision’ and agreed goals for a liveable city
13 Foresight: Future of Cities
To develop an evidence base to inform action for the wicked, complex issues affecting the future of our cities, we need to include diverse range of sources using potentially unfamiliar methods.
For evidence to create buy-in and effect long-term impact, collaborative, co-creation approaches to development of a scientific evidence base are essential.
Scientific evidence and rigorous science have broad reach.
Conclusions
Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected] .
@foresightgovuk
www.gov.uk/go-science