Clean Diesel Engine Implementation Workshop

Panel on Other Perspectives

Chicago, August 7, 2003

Summary Review Concerns With Diesel

Emissions Health Effects From All Particles Diesel Toxicity Small Size (nano-particles)

Fuel Sulfur Developments PM, NOx Technology Developments Conclusions

Health Effects From Diesel Emissions Beyond Dispute WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature

Deaths Each Year From Urban PM; Diesels One Major Source

Numerous Studies in Europe & US Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc.

No Evidence of a Threshold Ozone Also A Serious Health Concern

PM - The Epidemiology Studies

A Number of Epidemiology Studies

Europe Studies Harvard 6 Cities Study

Increased Risk of Premature Mortality Due To 10g/m3

PM2.5

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

All CausesPulmonaryLung Cancer

Journal of the American Medical Association, March 2002

Dutch Study Links Proximity To Truck Traffic With Lung Function

Brunekreef, Epidemiology 1997; 8: 298-303

1,860

1,920

1,980

2,040

2,100

7500 12500 17500 22500

Truck Traffic Density

Lu

ng

Fu

nct

ion

in li

ter

FEV1

Cancer Studies in Railroad Workers

Source: Health Effects Institute

Relative Cancer Risks

Benze

ne

Benze

ne

1,3-

Butad

iene

1,3-

Butad

iene

Chr

ome V

I

Chr

ome V

IC

arbo

n Tet

rach

lori

de

Car

bon

Tetra

chlo

ride

Form

alde

hyde

Form

alde

hyde

para

-Dic

hlor

oben

zene

para

-Dic

hlor

oben

zene

Perc

hlor

oeth

ylen

e

Perc

hlor

oeth

ylen

e

Ace

tald

ehyd

e

Ace

tald

ehyd

eA

ll O

ther

s

All

Oth

ers

Based on ARB monitoring data 1995 - 1997

Diesel PM

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Time (120 minutes)Outside Vehicle 1 Inside Vehicle 1

HDD Delivery VanDiesel Charter Bus

ARB In-Vehicle StudyReal-Time Fine Particle Counts (L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open)

To

tal

Par

ticl

e C

ou

nts

/ c

c

34.7

81.5

8.3

75

9.7

1.5

121.4

O3-1 Hr

O3-8 Hr

PM10

PM2.5*

CO

Pb

Any NAAQS

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

EPA 454/K-01-002September 2001

Number of People Living in Areas Exceeding Air Quality Standards in

the US

*= this number Will Likely Increase•As more PM2.5 Data Become•Available

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Em

issi

on

Sta

nd

ard

s (g

/bh

p-h

r)

1988-90 1991-93 1994-1997 1998-2003 2004-2006 2007 and later

United States and California On-road Truck Engine Standards,

Beginning with the 1988 Model Year

NOx

PM X 10

Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Spreading

050

100150200250300350400450500

PPM

Diesel PM Filters Are Now Widespread

Over 500,000 New Cars in Europe Retrofitted on Thousands of

Vehicles Worldwide (e.g., Sweden since ’96)

Will Be On 100% of New Diesel Vehicles in Japan by 2005

International Already Certified & Cummins & Caterpillar On Track For 2007

Gasoline and LPG

G-DI

Conventional Diesel

Comparison of Particle Emissions from SMPS.7: All Vehicles and Fuels - 50kph

1.00E+06

1.00E+07

1.00E+08

1.00E+09

1.00E+10

1.00E+11

1.00E+12

1.00E+13

1 10 100 1000

Electrical Mobility Diameter/nm

log

sc

ale

[P

art

icle

s/k

m]

Conventional Diesels

DirectInjectionGasoline

Trap Equipped Diesels

MPI and LPG

Gasoline

NOx Control Developments Are Where They Need To Be At This

Point NOx Aftertreatment Will Not Be Needed

Before 2010 (over 6 more years lead time is available which is

extraordinary)

DeNox Catalysts Are Where They Need To Be At This Point According To Independent Diesel Review Panel – No Show Stoppers!

SCR Is Also An Available Option Infrastructure Remains A Concern Places Refueling Burden on Truckers Instead of Engine

Makers

8,300

5,500

1,100900 900

2,700

2,100

Premature MortalityChronic Bronchitis

Hospital Admissions, PneumoniaHospital Admissions, COPD

Hospital Admissions, AsthmaHospital Admissions, Cardiovascular

Emergency Room Visits, Asthma0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

ThousandsAvoided Incidences Per Year

Expected Benefits of Heavy Duty Truck Rule (PM Only)

Thank You for Your Attention !