Climate and Agriculture

C H A L L E N G E S F O R E F F I C I E N T P R O D U C T I O N

Climate and Agriculture

C H A L L E N G E S F O R E F F I C I E N T P R O D U C T I O N

Diversity of Agriculture

Annual Cropsp

Perennial Crops

Pasture and Rangelandg

AnimalsRange

Confined

Market Value of AgriculturalgProducts Sold: 2002

20

1 Dot = $20,000,000

002C

ensusof

02-M012U.S.Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service

United States Total$200,646,355,000

fAgriculture

Climate Impacts Agriculture

Temperaturep

Carbon dioxide

Precipitationp

Solar radiation

Climate and Agriculture

Stress from environmental factors affects productivity and efficiency

Both climate and weather affect agricultural production systems

Animals

Optimum temperature is a very narrow range (thermoneutral zone) is which animal does not need to alter behavior or physiological function to maintain core temperaturemaintain core temperatureResponses include panting, shivering, reduced feed intake, increased (cold) or decreased (warm) , ( ) ( )metabolic rates Any of these responses will impact productivity ( t ilk d ti )(meat, milk, or reproduction)

Temperature Response

Impacts on Swine Production

Days for swine to grow from 50 to 110 kg

Impacts on Beef Production

Changes in days to reach market weight

Impacts on Milk Production

Effects on milk production due to temperature increases

Temperature Effects on Reproduction

Dairy cows reduced conception rate of 4.6% for y p 4Thermal/Humidity Index values above 70

Beef cows reduced conception rate of 3.2% for Thermal/Humidity Index values above 70

Beef cows 3.5% reduction in conception rate for each degree of temperature increase above 23.4C

Episodic Temperature Events

High temperature episodes causes stress in g p panimals which affects rate of gain, milk production

Cold temperature episodes affect feed consumption and survival of young animals

Temperature extremes lead to economic loss on order of Millions of dollars

Challenges

Manage animal production systems to decrease g p yexposure to extreme temperature events

Capital investment in facilities to reduce potential thermal stress

Increased investment in ensuring adequate water for i lrange animals

Crop Production

Variation among years due to within season weather g yimpacts

Long-term yield trends reveal the impacts of climate on crop production

World Wheat Yields

700

World Wheat Production

ric to

ns)

600

mill

ion

met

400

500

duct

ion

(m

300

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Prod

100

200

Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Corn Yields

12US Corn Production

a-1)

10

12

eld

(Mg

ha

6

8

Gra

in Y

ie

4

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

2

X Data1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Plant Temperature Responses

Variation among plantsVariation among plant phenological stages

GerminationVegetative GrowthVegetative GrowthReproductive Growth

Difference between air temperature and plant p ptemperatures

Temperature Responses of Plants

Tat

e Topt

owth

Ra

lant

Gro

Temperature

Pl

TminTmax

Temperature

Temperature Responses

Temperature Impacts

Warming temperatures causes faster plant g p pdevelopment (vegetative and reproductive)

Faster development doesn’t equate to increased grain yield

Warmer nighttime temperatures increase the i ti t d d th i ldrespiration rate and reduce growth or yield

Current Mega-climate regimesg g

Future (2050) mega-climate regimes

Move from a favorable to unfavorable climate for wheat

Ortiz et al. Agric Ecosys & Environ. 2008. 126:46-58

Water and Crops

Majority of crops are produced in rainfed j y p penvironments and amount of water available to a plant depends upon frequency of precipitation and

t h ldi it f th il water holding capacity of the soil.

Increased variability in precipitation will further increase the risks to crop productionincrease the risks to crop production

Water Impacts

in Y

ield

Th t th

s or

Gra The greater the

transpiration rate the larger the yield

Biom

ass

The slope of the li i t

Crop

B line is water use efficiency

Plant Transpiration

Water Use Efficiency

18000

20000

22000

150 kg ha-1

Yield = 3022 + 27.9 Water Use r2= 0.63100 kg ha-1

(kg

ha-1

)

12000

14000

16000200 kg ha-1

50 kg ha-1

Yie

ld

8000

10000

12000

Water Use (mm)

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 5504000

6000

Water Use (mm)

Water Use Between Soils

Corn Water Use 2000

)

500

600

Clarion Spring N (100 kg/ha) Webster Spring N (100 kg/ha)

r Use

(mm

)

300

400Webster Spring N (100 kg/ha)Clarion Fall N (200 kg/ha)Webster Fall N (200 kg/ha)

Wat

er

100

200

Day of Year100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

0

Day of Year

Annual Precipitation

1000

Walnut Creek Precipitation

ion

(mm

)

800

Pre

cipi

tati

400

600

umul

ativ

e

200

400

199719981999

0 60 120 180 240 300 360

Cu

0

2000

Day of Year

Variation in Precipitation

Total Rainfall (6/1/02-8/19/02) (cm)

Dallas South Yields

North

Data comparisons from last two strips

Dallas S R/G Strip 6 170#N

95.0

55 060.065.070.075.080.085.090.0

R/G

*100

July 14a

Sep 5a

July 14b

Sep 5b

55.0621020 621040 621060 621080 621100 621120 621140 621160

analys is units N to S

Water Use Efficiency

200411

2004

ficie

ncy

10

on U

se E

ff

8

9

Prec

ipita

tio

7

8

Spring S trip

1 2 3 4 5 6

P

6

Spring S tripFall Chisel

H ybrid

Soil Water Availability

(%)

30

35

ter C

onte

nt (

20

25

vaila

ble

Wat

10

15

Data Points Sand AWC = 3 8 + 2 2 OM

Organic Matter (%)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Av

0

5 Sand, AWC = 3.8 + 2.2 OMSilt Loam, AWC = 9.2 + 3.7 OMSilty clay loam, AWC = 6.3 + 2.8 OM

Organic Matter (%)

Hudson, 1994

Managing Soil Water

Increasing water supply to the crop throughout the g pp y p ggrowing season will be critical to long-term efficient production

Improve the ability to soil to retain precipitation and supply to growing crop will be the difference in crop yieldsyields

Carbon Dioxide Responses

Increasing CO2 will increase plant growthg 2 p gDifference between C3 and C4 plantsIncreasing CO2 will increase water use efficiency g 2 ybecause of increased growth per unit of water transpired

CO2 Effects on Weeds

Crop Production

Increasing temperature will require a change in g p q gplanting dates or tolerant varieties to avoid exposure to high temperatures

Need to increase the soil water holding capacity to increase available water to the developing crop either by improving organic matter or reducing evaporation by improving organic matter or reducing evaporation from soil

Changes in weed response under increasing CO will Changes in weed response under increasing CO2 will present additional challenges

Impacts on Rangeland and Pastureland

Variability of precipitation will impact growth of y p p p gpastures and rangeland

Increasing CO2 will impact forage quality and species composition in rangelands

Interactions of grazing management, climate change, d i iti ill i t th l t and species composition will impact the long-term

use and sustainability

Implications for Agricultural Production

Increased impact of climate that will tax our abilities pto efficiently produce crops

Develop systems level research to understand the impact on farming systems and the interactions among genetics, environment, and production systems systems.