Tin Yi (Assistant Director)DMH

MYANMAR

Climate and Floods

In Myanmar

Lat – 9° 30’ to 28° 30’ N,Long - 92° 10’ to 101° 11’ E

Neighbouring countries – India, Bangladesh, China, Laos, Thailand,

92° 94° 96° 100°

ANDARMAN SEA

N

10050050100

THAILAND

CHINA

INDIA

LAOS

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology

Meteorological Station- 63Hydrological station - 30Met & Hydro station - 39Agro-Met Stations - 18Aviation-Met station - 8Seismological station - 11

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ays

Nothern Onset DaysNORMAL5 per. Mov. Avg. (Nothern Onset Days)

Monsoon Onset in Northern Myanmar Areas During ( 1955-2008 )

1977

165(1977)

168( 1992)

- Climate change impact on onset criteria appreciable shift to late.Since1977 to 2008 all year shown late advanced monsoon about 7 to 12 days later than normal.

y = -0.3615x + 291.89

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years

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al d

ays

Southern mean Linear (Southern)

ANNUAL MONSOON WITHDRAWAL DATES OF SOUTHERN MYANMAR DURING (1955- 2008)

276(1976)

1989

269(1991)

264(2000)

283

- Monsoon withdrawal dates are shift to early. - Since1989 to 2008 (except 1993) all year shown early withdrawal monsoon about 15 to 25 days early than normal.

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years

Dur

atio

n(da

ys)

Nothern to Southen

Mean

Linear (Nothern to Southen)

Duration of Monsoon since Onset in Northern till Withdrawl from Southern Myanmar Areas(1955-2008)

1989

(1977)113

(1979)102

130

(2004)100

-The duration of monsoon seasons were shorter than normal starting from 1989- The late onset and the early withdrawal of monsoon are responsible for the shorter duration of monsoon seasons

Monsoon Depression in the Bay of Bengal During 1926-2008

y = -0.0813x + 9.293

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year

frequ

ency

frequency Linear (frequency)

ANNUAL MONSOON STRENGTH INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING 1951-2000

y = -0.1365x + 474.98

1980 1990 2000 2010

YEARS

1950 1960 1970

Monsoon IndicesLinear (Monsoon Indices)

5 per. Mov. Avg. (Monsoon Indices)

300

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400

450

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550

600

200

250

The years 1951, 1953,1957,1977,1979,1996 and 1998 were weak monsoon years, where the impact of EL Nino were evident in most years.

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-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

YEARS

1979

1998

1993

19721962

1986

1973

1970

Percentage DeparturesLinear (Percentage Departures)5 per. Mov. Avg. (Percentage Departures)

19961999

DRIER PHASEWETTER PHASE

1989 2000

PERCENTAGE DEPARTURE OF ANNUAL AREA AVERAGE RAINFALLS OVER MYANMAR

DURING THE PERIOD 1960-2000

PER

CE

NTA

E D

EPA

RT

UR

E

A phase change of decreasing in annual rainfall occurred starting from 1977 during the period 1960-2000.

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DEPARTURES OF MONSOON RAINFALLS DURING 1947-2000

y = -0.7421x + 1456.1

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

YEARS

PER

CEN

TAE

DEP

AR

TUR

RES

Rainfall DeparturesLinear (Series1)6 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1)

MEAN

- The monsoon rainfall showed a continuous negative anomalies in each of every year from 1981 to 1998 except in 1990.

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DEPARTURES OF TIME AND AREA AVERAGED HEAT INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING THE PERIOD 1960-2000

-6

-4

-2

0

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4

6

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

YEARS

DEP

AR

TUR

ES (%

Heat Indices5 per. Mov. Avg. (Heat Indices)

Linear (Heat Indices)

1976

WARMER PHASECOOLER PHASE

MEAN

Lwin .2001

ANNUAL DROUGHT INDICES OF MYANMAR DURING 1951-2000

y = 0.2582x - 507.97

-30

-20

-10

0

10

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30

40

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010YEARS

DR

OU

GH

T IN

DEX

Drought Index5 per. Mov. Avg. (Drought Index)Linear (Drought Index)

The drought anomaly also showed positives anomalies in most years of 1980s and 1990s.

ww

w.th

emeg

alle

ry.c

om

(1960-1969) Mean SSTA (2000-2008) Mean SSTA

May -1st Dekad May -1st Dekad

Severe Cyclonic Storm MALA, 24-30 April, 2006

Severe Cyclonic Storm NARGIS, 27 April – 3 May, 2008

Severe Cyclonic Storms in Bay of Bengal(2006-2009)

Severe Cyclonic Storm AKASH, 2-15 May, 2007

Cyclonic Storm AILA, 22-25 May, 2009

- Global warming is forcing ocean temperatures to rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify.

- Higher ocean temperatures in the top couple of hundred feet of the ocean, which drives convection energy and moisture into these storms and makes them more powerful.

-Strong correlation between intense storms and global warming.

• The annual onset dates of monsoon into Myanmar during 1955-2008 indicates that monsoon onsets were late starting from 1977.

• Starting from1989 ( except 1993), the withdrawal of monsoon from Myanmar were early than normal.

• The duration of monsoon seasons were shorter than normal starting from 1989• The late onset and the early withdrawal of monsoon are responsible for the shorter

duration of monsoon seasons.• The trend analysis of Monsoon depression (1926-2008)is the falling trend. The annual

frequency of monsoon depressions becomes significantly less in 1980s and 1990s.After 2003, the frequency becomes more.

• The monsoon strength were weak in 1951, 1953,1957,1977,1979,1996 and 1998 , where the impact of EL Nino were evident in most years.

• The normal monsoon breaks were disappeared in almost every years during 1989-1997. The break situation returned again in 1998, it however disappeared again from 1999 to 2006 and returned again in 2007 and 2008.

• The monsoon rainfall showed a continuous negative anomalies in each of every year from 1981 to 1998 except in 1990. The drought anomaly also showed positives anomalies in most years of 1980s and 1990s.

• Sea surface temperature rise, which is causing storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, to intensify.

Climate change in Myanmar

Myanmar Average Annual Water Resources Potential by River Basin

River Basin

Number

Name of the Principal River

Basin

Drainage Area

(Thousand sq-km)

Surface Water

(Km3/annum)

Ground water

(Km3/annum)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Chindwin

Upper Ayeyarwady

Lower Ayeyarwady

Sittoung

Rakhine

Taninthayi

Thanlwin

Mekong

115

193

96

48

58

41

158

29

141

228

86

81

139

131

258

18

58

93

153

28

42

39

75

7Total 738 1082 495

ANDARMAN SEA

N

10050050100

Myitkyina

Bhamo

Hkamti

Homalin

Katha

KalewaMonywa

Mandalay

Minbu

Pyay Taungoo

Hpa-an

Bago

Magway

ChaukNyaung U

Myitnge

Mawlaik

Hpa-an

Hsipaw

Sagaing

Aunglan

HenzadaMadauk Shwegyin

Zaungtu

River Forecasting Stations

Ayeyarwady - 12 Stations

Chindwin - 5 Stations

Thanlwin - 1 Station

Sittoung - 2 Stations

Shwegyin - 1 Station

Bago - 1 Station

Dokehtawady - 2 Station

• Small rivers channels

• Streams in mountainous regions

Ayeyarwady and Chindwin- Intense heavy rain due to pronounced monsoon trough persisting

for at least 3 days over Northern Myanmar areas

- Heavy rainfall due to cyclonic storm crossing Myanmar and

Bangladesh coasts during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon

Sittaung and Thanlwin

- Mostly due to rainfall associated with low pressure waves (the

remnants of typhoons and tropical storms of South China Sea)

moving from east to west across the country

- Coastal Floods (Storm Surges)- Small River Floods (Flash Floods)

Severe Flood Years (Since 1966 )

River Highest Water Level Recorded at Year Total Stations above Danger Level

Chindwin Homalin 1968 14 stations

Ayeyarwady Chauk, Minbu, Aunglan, Pyay 1974 20 stations

Chindwin Mawlaik 1976 18 stations

Ayeyarwady Myitkyina, Katha 1979 14 stations

Chindwin Hkamti 1991 16 stations

SittoungShwegyin

MadaukShwegyin

1997 19 stations

ChindwinThanlwin

Kalewa, MonywaHpa-an

2002 15 stations

Ayeyarwady Bhamo, Sagaing, Mandalay, Nyaung Oo, Magway

2004 21 stations

Stations DangerLevel (cm)

Max. WL (cm) Flood Duration above DL

(m) Year

Ayeyarwady

Myitkyina 1200 1411 4 days 12 Hrs 2.11 1979

Bhamo 1150 1338 8 days 2 Hrs 2.38 2004

Katha 1040 1154 7 days 6 Hrs 1.14 1979

Mandalay 1260 1382 16 Days 1.22 2004

Sagaing 1150 1274 17 Days 6 Hrs 1.24 2004

Nyaung Oo 2120 2263 16 Days 12 Hrs 1.43 2004

Chauk 1450 1532 12 Days 12 Hrs 0.82 1974

Minbu 1700 1982 17 Days 12 Hrs 2.82 1974

Aunglan 2550 2737 15 Days 1.87 1974

Pyay 2900 3025 13 Days 1.25 1974

Hinthada 1342 1582 23 Days 12 Hrs 2.40 1966

Chindwin

Hkamti 1360 1771 18 Days 6 Hrs 4.11 1991

Homalin 2900 3107 18 Days 6 Hrs 2.07 1968

Mawlaik 1230 1608 15 Days 12 Hrs 3.78 1976

Kalewa 1550 1920 10 Day 12 Hrs 3.70 2002

Monywa 1000 1099 9 Days 6 Hrs 0.99 2002

Flood Record in Myanmar (since 1966)

Stations DangerLevel (cm)

Max. WL (cm) Flood Duration above DL (m) Year

SittoungToungoo 600 725 16 Days 18 Hrs 1.25 1973

Madauk 1070 1244 31 Days 1.74 1997Dokhtawady

Hsipaw 600 618 12 Hrs 0.18 1971Myitnge 870 1048 8 Days 6 Hrs 1.78 2006

ShwegyinShwegyin 700 927 4 Days 12 Hrs 2.27 1997

BagoBago 910 950 2 Days 6 Hrs 0.4 1995

ThanlwinHpaan 750 936 38 Days 1.86 2002

Flood Record in Myanmar (since 1966)

Percentage of Occurrence of Floods in Months and Flood Frequency along Ayeyarwady River

StationsMonthly Flood Frequency(%)

Period Flood

FrequencyFlood Year

June July August Sept Oct

Myitkyina 1(14%) 5(57%) 0 1(15%) 1(14%) 1966-08 7 in 43 yrs 7 in 43 yrs

Bhamo 1(6%) 11(60%) 2(11%) 3(17%) 1(16%) 1968-08 18 in 41 yrs 13 in 41 yrs

Katha 3(8%) 21(62%) 6(18%) 2(6%) 2(6%) 1966-08 34 in 43 yrs 22 in 43 yrs

Mandalay 0 5(63%) 0 1(12%) 2(25%) 1976-08 8 in 33 yrs 6 in 33 yrs

Sagaing 0 7(28%) 8(32%) 7(28%) 3(12%) 1966-08 25 in 43 yrs 20 in 43 yrs

Nyaung Oo 0 14(33%) 13(31%) 10(24%) 5(12%) 1966-08 42 in 43 yrs 29 in 43 yrs

Chauk 0 3(34%) 3(33%) 2(22%) 1(11%) 1973-08 9 in 36 yrs 9 in 36 yrs

Minbu 0 9(24%) 15(38%) 11(28%) 4(10%) 1966-08 39 in 43 yrs 26 in 43 yrs

Magway 0 7(37%) 5(26%) 5((26%) 2(11%) 1990-08 19 in 19 yrs 10 in 19 yrs

Aunglan 0 3(21%) 5(36%) 6(43%) 0 1973-08 14 in 36 yrs 11 in 36 yrs

Pyay 0 5(29%) 4(24%) 7(41%) 1(6%) 1966-08 17 in 43 yrs 15 in 43 yrs

Hinthada 0 12(25%) 21(44%) 12(25%) 3(6%) 1967-08 48 in 42 yrs 26 in 42 yrs

Percentage of Occurrence of Floods in Months and Flood Frequency along Chindwin and other Rivers

StationsMonthly Flood Frequency(%)

Period Flood

FrequencyFlood Year

June July August Sept OctChindwin River

Hkamti 3(7%) 26(57%) 12(26%) 5(10%) 0 1967-08 46 in 42 yrs 29 in 42 yrsHomalin 4(7%) 28(50%) 15(27%) 7(13%) 2(3%) 1968-08 56 in 41 yrs 32 in 41 yrsMawlaik 1(2%) 23(40%) 17(30%) 11(9%) 5(9%) 1965-08 57 in 44 yrs 32 in 44 yrsKalewa 1(2%) 23(40%) 17(30%) 12(21%) 4(7%) 1966-08 57 in 43 yrs 33 in 43 yrsMonywa 0 16(38%) 14(34%) 9(21%) 3(7%) 1966-08 42 in 43 yrs 29 in 43 yrs

Dokehtawady RiverMyitnge 1(2%) 15(25%) 19(32%) 17(29%) 7(12%) 1972-08 59 in 37 yrs 31 in 37 yrs

Sittoung RiverToungoo 0 9(14%) 37(59%) 12(19%) 5(8%) 1966-08 63 in 43 yrs 34 in 43 yrsMadauk 2(2%) 23(27%) 50(58%) 10(11%) 2(2%) 1966-08 87 in 43 yrs 40 in 43 yrs

Shwegyin RiverShwegyin 2(5%) 9(23%) 27(69%) 1(3%) 0 1965-08 39 in 44 yrs 24 in 44 yrs

Bago RiverBago 1(6%) 5(31%) 10(63%) 0 0 1965-08 16 in 44 yrs 13 in 44 yrs

Thanlwin RiverHpaan 2(2%) 33(36%) 45(49%) 11(12%) 1(1%) 1966-08 92 in 43 yrs 38 in 43 yrs

Annual Flood Occurrence Percentage in Myanmar (1966-2008)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

year

Ann

ual F

lood

Occ

urre

nce

%

More than 50 % - 23 yrsEqual to 50 % - 3 yrsLess than 50 % - 17 yrs

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Myitkyina Station (Ayeyarwady)(1972-2008)

800

1000

1200

1400

160019

72

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Y ear

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Nyaung U Station (Ayeyarwady)(1972-2008)

1800

2000

2200

2400

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hinthada Station (Ayeyarwady)(1966-2008)

1200

1400

1600

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Katha Station (Ayeyarwady)(1966-2008)

800

1000

1200

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hkamti Station (Chindwin)(1967-2008)

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)Annual Maximum Water Levels at Mawlaik Station

(Chindwin)(1965-2008)

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Monywa Station (Chindwin)(1965-2008)

800

1000

1200

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Myitnge Station (Dokehtawady)(1972-2008)

600

800

1000

1200

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Madauk Station (Sittoung)(1966-2008)

700

900

1100

1300

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)Annual Maximum Water Levels at Shwegyin Station

(Shwegyin)(1965-2008)

400

600

800

1000

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Hpa-an Station (Thanlwin)(1965-2008)

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

Annual Maximum Water Levels at Bago Station (Bago)(1965-2008)

800

850

900

950

1000

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(cm

)

• Impacts of climate change also occur in Myanmar

• DMH is only one service issuing warnings for hydrological, Meteorological and seismological disasters.

• The relevant depts. in Myanmar are implementing the projects, workshops and meetings related to the climate change, also climate change assessment and adaptation cooperating with international organizations.

• DMH is also doing the analysis of the climate change trends and also develop the scenario for climate data.

• DMH is very actively contributing in the projects, workshops and meetings related with climate change assessment and adaptation.

Conclusion