climate and the american pika - university of...
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Climate and the American pika in our mountains and beyond
Chris Ray University of Colorado–Boulder
Chris Ray
A brief summary of pika… • Biology • Microhabitat • Microclimate • Distribution • Trends • Futures • Opportunities
Chris Ray
A brief summary of pika… • Biology • Microhabitat • Microclimate • Distribution • Trends • Futures • Opportunities
Lauren Buchholz
...and... herbivorous hay-stackers highly territorial and vocal
Pikas are... related to rabbits as big as your fist
habitat specialists non-hibernating
Richard Hahn
Neal Zaun
Joyce Gellhorn
Becka Barkley
Becka Barkley
Photos by Becka Barkley
Becka Barkley
John Mionczynski
Community ecology
How might climate affect pikas?
A brief summary of pika… • Biology • Microhabitat • Microclimate • Distribution • Trends • Futures • Opportunities
Becka Barkley
Summer heat-stress Grinnell 1917 MacArthur & Wang 1973, 1974 Smith 1974 Hafner 1993, 1994 Hafner & Sullivan 1995 Verts & Carraway 1998 Li et al. 2001 Simpson 2001 Beever et al. 2003, 2010
Winter cold-stress Tapper 1973 Smith 1978
Morrison and Hik 2007 Beever et al. 2010 & 2011
Thermal sensitivity
Shana Weber
Chris Ray
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A-04 S-04 O-04 N-04 D-04 J-05 F-05 M-05 A-05 M-05 J-05 J-05 A-05
date
tem
p (
C)
Niwot Ridge, CO
Gallatin Range, MT
Hourly haypile temperatures
Joyce Gellhorn
Te
mp
era
ture
(C
)
Date (Month-Year)
How to hindcast a microclimate? Si
te t
emp
erat
ure
1945 1975 1985 2005 1955 1965 1995
20
05
-20
06
sit
e t
em
pe
ratu
re (
C)
2005-2006 HCN* station temperature (C) *Historical Climatology Network
Temperatures: under the talus vs. ambient
How to hindcast a microclimate? Si
te t
emp
erat
ure
1945 1975 1985 2005 1955 1965 1995
A brief summary of pika… • Biology • Microhabitat • Microclimate • Distribution • Trends • Futures • Opportunities
Shana Weber
Trends in distribution patterns from 3 places
19
Sierra Nevada
Great Basin
Southern Rockies
Great Basin area
Prehistoric populations (now extinct)
Populations existing before 1990:
Went extinct before 1999
Went extinct during 1999-2008
Still persisting by 2008 North America
OR
ID
CA
NV
UT
AZ
Adapted from:
Ray et al., in press
Wilkening et al. 2011
Beever et al. 2011
Historical-20081999-2008
Rela
tive s
upport
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Cold
Days
MaxE
levR
AveS
um
merT
RangeH
ab
LocalH
ab
Gra
zin
g
AveP
recip
Pop1990s
Latitu
de
Rela
tive im
port
ance (
Akaik
e w
t)
Great Basin extinctions thermal correlates
21
Sierra Nevada
Great Basin
Southern Rockies
Trends in distribution patterns from 3 places
World famous pikas at Bodie, California
World famous pikas at Bodie, California
R2 = 0.50, P < 0.001 Nichols (2010) Western North American Naturalist
World famous pikas at Bodie, California
World famous pikas at Bodie, California
All pikas on natural habitat patches extirpated since
1940s
Local extinction dates known
Dates explained by habitat patch
connectivity, size, depth and CV(maxT)
Nichols, Ray & Erb in prep.
26
Sierra Nevada
Great Basin
Southern Rockies
Trends in distribution patterns from 3 places
Southern Rockies
CU study 2008-2012
Liesl Erb
Erb, Ray & Guralnick 2011 Ecology
Historical site re-survey
High occupancy Extinction at 4 of 69 sites
What predicts extinction?
Vegetation quality?
Talus properties? Temperature? Precipitation?
Trend in occupancy Southern Rocky Mountains
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
2008 2009 2010 2011
Me
an A
nn
ual
Pre
cip
itat
ion
1
90
8-2
00
7 (
mm
)
Presence
Absence
** n=69 *** n=21 * n=25
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
2008 2009 2010 2011
Me
an M
axim
um
Su
mm
er
Tem
pe
ratu
re
19
08
-20
07
(°C
)
Presence
Absence
Persisting Extinct
Correlates of pika persistence Southern Rocky Mountains
Mean annual 1908-2007
Mean maximum in summer 1908-2007
Precipitation (mm) Temperature (ºC)
* n=69 *** n=21 * n=25
Persisting Extinct
Correlates of pika persistence Southern Rocky Mountains
2011: Occupancy declines with mean summer T, but increases with forb diversity
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Absences Presences
p = 0.07
Mea
n f
orb
ric
hn
ess
Targeted for genetic studies
65 63
24 29
15 42
21 7
67 43
45 48
54 34
71 44
Targeted for occupancy surveys
Parks with confirmed pika populations
Not included in the PIP project Spatial trends
National Park Service project
“Pikas in peril”
% of plots occupied
2010
Spatial trends
National Park Service project
“Pikas in peril”
% of plots occupied
2010-2011
Targeted for occupancy surveys
Parks with confirmed pika populations
Not included in the PIP project
Spatial trends
National Park Service project
“pikas in peril”
% of plots occupied
2010-2011
Targeted for occupancy surveys
Parks with confirmed pika populations
Not included in the PIP project
Survival and stress vs. microclimate Montana vs. Colorado
2008-2015
Stress and survival study Colorado vs. Montana
Bob Rapp
Stress and survival study Colorado vs. Montana
Stress and survival study Colorado vs. Montana
-20 -10 0 10 20
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Temperature (C)P
roport
ion o
f te
mpera
ture
s r
ecord
ed
MTCO(a)
How might climate affect pikas?
Summer heat-stress
Heat avoidance behavior
Reduced foraging activity
Smaller or inferior haypiles
Winter cold-stress
How might climate affect pikas?
A brief summary of pika… • Biology • Microhabitat • Microclimate • Distribution • Trends • Futures • Opportunities
Chris Ray
What does the future hold?
Loarie et al. (in review)
Mea
n a
nn
ual
tem
per
atu
re
Year
Mea
n a
nn
ual
tem
per
atu
re
Decade (1900s)
I. Sierras
II. Cascades
III. Great Basin
IV. Rocky Mtns
What does the future hold?
Loarie et al. (in review)
Mea
n a
nn
ual
tem
per
atu
re
Decade (1900s)
I. Sierras
II. Cascades
III. Great Basin
IV. Rocky Mtns
What does the future hold?
Loarie et al. (in review)
What does the future hold? Loarie et al. (in review)
Pro
bab
ility
of
loca
l ext
inct
ion
Too conservative! Great Basin extinctions
not predicted
A brief summary of pika… • Behavior • Microhabitat • Microclimate • Distribution • Trends • Futures • Opportunities
Chris Ray
www.iNaturalist.org
www.iNaturalist.org
www.pikapartners.org
The Pika Project – [email protected]
