climate change

7/18/2019 Climate Change

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globals [ sky-top ;; y coordinate of top row of sky earth-top ;; y coordinate of top row of earth temperature ;; overall temperature]

breed [rays ray] ;; packets of sunlightbreed [IRs IR] ;; packets of infrared radiationbreed [heats heat] ;; packets of heat energybreed [CO2s CO2] ;; packets of carbon dioxide

breed [clouds cloud]clouds-own [cloud-speed cloud-id]

;;;; Setup Procedures;;

to setup clear-all set-default-shape rays "ray" set-default-shape IRs "ray" set-default-shape clouds "cloud" set-default-shape heats "dot"

set-default-shape CO2s "CO2-molecule" setup-world set temperature 12 reset-ticksend

to setup-world set sky-top max-pycor - 5 set earth-top 0 ask patches [ ;; set colors for the different sections of the world if pycor > sky-top [ ;; space set pcolor scale-color white pycor 22 15 ]

if pycor earth-top [ ;; sky set pcolor scale-color blue pycor -20 20 ] if pycor < earth-top [ set pcolor red + 3 ] ;; earth if pycor = earth-top ;; earth surface [ update-albedo ] ]end

;;;; Runtime Procedures;;

to go ask clouds [ fd cloud-speed ] ; move clouds along run-sunshine ;; step sunshine ;; if the albedo slider has moved update the color of the "earth surface" patches ask patches with [pycor = earth-top] [ update-albedo ] run-heat ;; step heat run-IR ;; step IR


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run-CO2 ;; moves CO2 molecules tickend

to update-albedo ;; patch procedure set pcolor scale-color green albedo 0 1end

to add-cloud ;; erase clouds and then create new ones, plus one let sky-height sky-top - earth-top ;; find a random altitude for the clouds but ;; make sure to keep it in the sky area let y earth-top + (random-float (sky-height - 4)) + 2 ;; no clouds should have speed 0 let speed (random-float 0.1) + 0.01 let x random-xcor let id 0 ;; we don't care what the cloud-id is as long as ;; all the turtles in this cluster have the same ;; id and it is unique among cloud clusters if any? clouds [ set id max [cloud-id] of clouds + 1 ]

create-clouds 3 + random 20

[ set cloud-speed speed set cloud-id id ;; all the cloud turtles in each larger cloud should ;; be nearby but not directly on top of the others so ;; add a little wiggle room in the x and ycors setxy x + random 9 - 4 ;; the clouds should generally be clustered around the ;; center with occasional larger variations y + 2.5 + random-float 2 - random-float 2 set color white ;; varying size is also purely for visualization ;; since we're only doing patch-based collisions

set size 2 + random 2 set heading 90 ]end

to remove-cloud ;; erase clouds and then create new ones, minus one if any? clouds [ let doomed-id one-of remove-duplicates [cloud-id] of clouds ask clouds with [cloud-id = doomed-id] [ die ] ]end

to run-sunshine ask rays [ if not can-move? 0.3 [ die ] ;; kill them off at the edge fd 0.3 ;; otherwise keep moving ] create-sunshine ;; start new sun rays from top reflect-rays-from-clouds ;; check for reflection off clouds encounter-earth ;; check for reflection off earth and absorptionend


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to create-sunshine ;; don't necessarily create a ray each tick ;; as brightness gets higher make more if 10 * sun-brightness > random 50 [ create-rays 1 [ set heading 160 set color yellow ;; rays only come from a small area ;; near the top of the world setxy (random 10) + min-pxcor max-pycor ] ]end

to reflect-rays-from-cloudsask rays with [any? clouds-here] [ ;; if ray shares patch with a cloud set heading 180 - heading ;; turn the ray around]end

to encounter-earth ask rays with [ycor random 100 [ set heading 180 - heading ] ;; reflect [ rt random 45 - random 45 ;; absorb into the earth set color red - 2 + random 4 set breed heats ] ]end

to run-heat ;; advances the heat energy turtles ;; the temperature is related to the number of heat turtles set temperature 0.99 * temperature + 0.01 * (12 + 0.1 * count heats) ask heats [

let dist 0.5 * random-float 1 ifelse can-move? dist [ fd dist ] [ set heading 180 - heading ] ;; if we're hitting the edge of the world, turn around if ycor >= earth-top [ ;; if heading back into sky ifelse temperature > 20 + random 40 ;; heats only seep out of the earth from a small area ;; this makes the model look nice but it also contributes ;; to the rate at which heat can be lost and xcor > 0 and xcor < max-pxcor - 8 [ set breed IRs ;; let some escape as IR set heading 20

set color magenta ] [ set heading 100 + random 160 ] ;; return them to earth ] ]end

to run-IR ask IRs [ if not can-move? 0.3 [ die ] fd 0.3


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if ycor


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01-2424-822111ticks30.0

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@#$#@#$#@## WHAT IS IT?

This is a model of energy flow in the earth, particularly heat energy. It showsthe earth as rose colored, and the surface of the planet is represented by a black strip. Above the strip there is a blue atmosphere and black space at the top.Clouds and carbon dioxide (CO2) molecules can be added to the atmosphere. The CO2 molecules represent greenhouse gases that block infrared light that is emitted by the earth. Clouds block incoming or outgoing sun rays, influencing the heating up or cooling down of the planet.

## HOW IT WORKS

Yellow arrowheads stream downward representing sunlight energy. Some of the sunlight reflects off clouds and more can reflect off the earth's surface.

If sunlight is absorbed by the earth, it turns into a red dot, representing heatenergy. Each dot represents the energy of one yellow sunlight arrowhead. The red dots randomly move around the earth, and its temperature is related to the total number of red dots.

Sometimes the red dots transform themselves into infrared (IR) light that headstoward space, carrying off energy. The probability of a red dot becoming IR light depends on the earth's temperature. When the earth is cold, few red dots generate IR light; when it is hot, most do. The IR energy is represented by a magentaarrowhead. Each carries the same energy as a yellow arrowhead and as a red dot.The IR light goes through clouds but can bounce off CO2 molecules.

There is a relation between the number of red dots in the earth and the temperat

ure of the earth. This is because the earth temperature goes up as the total thermal energy is increased. Thermal energy is added by sunlight that reaches the earth as well as from infrared (IR) light reflected down to the earth. Thermal energy is removed by IR emitted by the earth. The balance of these determines theenergy in the earth, which is proportional to its temperature.

There are, of course, many simplifications in this model. The earth is not a single temperature, does not have a single albedo, and does not have a single heatcapacity. Visible light is somewhat absorbed by CO2 and some IR light does bounce off clouds. No model is completely accurate. What is important is that a model


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reacts in some ways like the system it is supposed to model. This model does that, showing how the greenhouse effect is caused by CO2 and other gases that absorb IR.

## HOW TO USE IT

The SUN-BRIGHTNESS slider controls how much sun energy enters the earth's atmosphere. A value of 1.0 corresponds to our sun. Higher values allow you to see whatwould happen if the earth was closer to the sun, or if the sun got brighter.

The ALBEDO slider controls how much of the sun energy hitting the earth is absorbed.If the albedo is 1.0, the earth reflects all sunlight. This could happen if theearth froze, and it is indicated by a white surface. If the albedo is zero, theearth absorbs all sunlight. This is indicated as a black surface. The earth's albedo is about 0.6.

You can add and remove clouds with buttons. Clouds block sunlight but not IR.

You can add and remove greenhouse gases, represented as CO2 molecules. CO2 blocks IR light but not sunlight. The buttons add and subtract molecules in groups of25 up to 150.

The temperature of the earth is related to the amount of heat in the earth. The

more red dots you see, the hotter it is.

## THINGS TO NOTICE

Watch a single sunlight arrowhead. This is easier if you slow down the model using the slider at the top of the model. You can also use the WATCH A RAY button.

What happens to the arrowhead when it hits the earth? Describe its later path. Does it escape the earth? What happens then? Do all arrowheads follow similar paths?

## THINGS TO TRY

1. Play with the model. Change the albedo and run the model. Add clouds and CO2to the model and then watch a single sunlight arrowhead. What is the highest earth temperature you can produce?

2. Run the model with a bright sun but no clouds and no CO2. What happens to thetemperature? It should rise quickly and then settle down around 50 degrees. Whydoes it stop rising? Why does the temperature continue to bounce around? Remember, the temperature reflects the number of red dots in the earth. When the temperature is constant, there are about as many incoming yellow arrowheads as outgoing IR ones. Why?

3. Explore the effect of albedo holding everything else constant. Does increasing the albedo increase or decrease the earth temperature? When you experiment, be

sure to run the model long enough for the temperature to settle down.

4. Explore the effect of clouds holding everything else constant.

5. Explore the effect of adding 100 CO2 molecules. What is the cause of the change you observe? Follow one sunlight arrowhead now.

## EXTENDING THE MODEL

Try to add some other factors influencing the earth's temperature. For example,


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you could add patches of vegetation and then see what happens as they are consumed for human occupation. Also, you could try to add variable albedo to the model, instead of having one value for the whole planet. You could have glaciers withhigh albedo, and seas with low albedo, and then evaluate what happens when theglaciers melt into the seas.

## NETLOGO FEATURES

Note that clouds are actually made up of lots of small circular turtles.

## RELATED MODELS

Daisyworld

## CREDITS AND REFERENCES

This model is based on an earlier version created in 2005 by Robert Tinker for the TELS project.

## HOW TO CITE

If you mention this model in a publication, we ask that you include these citations for the model itself and for the NetLogo software:

* Tinker, R. and Wilensky, U. (2007). NetLogo Climate Change model. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/ClimateChange. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.* Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center forConnected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

## COPYRIGHT AND LICENSE

Copyright 2007 Uri Wilensky.

![CC BY-NC-SA 3.0](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-nc-sa/3.0/88x31.png)

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.

Commercial licenses are also available. To inquire about commercial licenses, please contact Uri Wilensky at [email protected].

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