climate change, agriculture and food security
TRANSCRIPT
Event name
CCAFS: An Overview
NamePosition
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) – Overview
Bruce CampbellCCAFS Director
CIAT BOT, May 2011
2 • 3/21/11
The Challenge
3 • 3/21/11
Message 1:In the coming decades, climate
change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,
and rural livelihoods.
4 • 3/21/11
In order to meet global demands,
we will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
5 • 3/21/11
The concentration of GHGs is rising
Long-term implications
for the climate and agriculture
CO2
CH4
N2O
6 • 3/21/11The suitability for crops will decline in many areas……
-95 to -31-30 to -11-10 to -101 to 2930 to 4748 to 98
% change
Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS
50 crops, to 2050
7 • 3/21/11
“Unchecked climate change will result in a
20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full
mitigation scenario.
-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
8 • 3/21/11
Message 2:With new challenges also come
new opportunities.
9 • 3/21/11
Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
2006 2007 2008
Ecosystem services
10 • 3/21/11
Program Design
11 • 3/21/11
CCAFS: the partnership
12 • 3/21/11
The CGIAR Research Centers
Lead center - CIAT
13 • 3/21/11
14 • 3/21/11
1. Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and
food systems.
2.Support the inclusion of
agricultural issues in climate
change policies, and of
climate issues in agricultural
policies, at all levels.
CCAFS objectives
15 • 3/21/11
The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:
1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk
3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation
Improved Environmental
HealthImproved
Rural Livelihoods
Improved Food
Security
Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural
resource management, and food systems
Trade-offs and Synergies
4. Integration for Decision Making
• Linking Knowledge with Action• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis
and Planning• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
16 • 3/21/11
Place-based field work
Indo-Gangetic Plains:Parts of India, Bangladesh, NepalEast Africa:
Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia
West Africa:Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger
17 • 3/21/11
Progressive Adaptation
18 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies
Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
19 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future
The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials
Searching for climate analogues
20 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up
Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture
21 • 3/21/11
Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.
The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.
22 • 3/21/11
Risk
Management
23 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)
Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level)
Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services
Managing Climate Risk · 2
24 • 3/21/11
Managing climate risk · 2
>> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance
• Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance
• Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk
25 • 3/21/11
Managing climate risk · 2
>> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data
Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across AfricaFilling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO
Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc
26 • 3/21/11
Pro-poor Mitigation
27 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways
Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements
Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
28 • 3/21/11
Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
>> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research
29 • 3/21/11
• Earthscan book of current knowledge
• Lessons from REDD+ for agriculture
Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
>> Spotlight on: State-of-the-art agricultural mitigation
30 • 3/21/11
Integration
31 • 3/21/11
Objective One: Linking knowledge with action
Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning
Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis
Integration for Decision Making · 4
32 • 3/21/11
Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households
• Sites for participatory action research
• Guidance for research foci
• Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts
Integration for Decision Making · 4
>> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey
33 • 3/21/11
Select climate model (6 options
or their avg)
Select emission
s scenario(3 options)
Select the centre year of the time
slice
Select location Select the number of years of data desired
™
Integration for Decision Making · 4
34 • 3/21/11
Cross-cutting principles, activities & outputs
35 • 3/21/11
Building a user-driven agenda
• From large-scale stakeholder consultations
e.g. GCARD, regional meetings
• Specific exercises with selected groups
e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials
From local to regional to global
36 • 3/21/11
People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.
Capacity enhancement
37 • 3/21/11
• Understand and act on social differentiation: gender, wealth, occupation etc
• Examine both vulnerability and agency, e.g. via village participatory analysis
Focus on the most vulnerable
38 • 3/21/11
Join up climate, ag & food policy
Working with UNFCCC negotiators
AgClim Letters
39 • 3/21/11
40 • 3/21/11
Budget$63.2 million totalSources:• CGIAR Fund - $41.4 million• Current and Projected Restricted
Donor Projects - $17.3 million• Other Income $ 4.5 million30% to partners
41 • 3/21/11
Centre Total Budget
AfricaRice 0.8 Bioversity 5.6 CIAT 6.0 CIFOR 1.0 CIMMYT 5.5 CIP 3.0 ICARDA 2.0 ICRAF 7.9 ICRISAT 4.5 IFPRI 4.2 IITA 1.0 ILRI 8.0 IRRI 1.1 IWMI 5.2 WorldFish 2.0 Total 57.8
4.6 0.8
63.2
42 • 3/21/11
Budget allocation to Themes
Theme 1 Adaptation to Progressive Climate
Change 34%
Theme 2 Adaptation through Managing
Climate Risk 13%
Theme 3 Pro-poor climate change mitigation
18%
Theme 4 Integration for decision making
25%
Coordination, Synthesis, Capacity Enhancement,
Communications10%
43 • 3/21/11
Challenges
• A new way of working – needs behavioral changes
• Boundary issues amongst CRPs
Opportiunities
• Largest coalition of scientists working on agriculture and climate change in developing countries
44 • 3/21/11
• Learn about the program on the web and through presentations
• Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research
Learn and engage
• Use research products coming out of other centers
• Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy
• Develop ownership and feel a part of the program
Collaborate and contribute
What Should You Do (as a
scientist)?
45 • 3/21/11
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