Climate Change and Displacement: Data for a Difficult SubjectIFMS 2020 Session A.1Sunday, 19 January 2020

www.internal-displacement.orgPANTONEP 108-16 C

DECEMBER 2019

METHODOLOGICAL PAPER

INTRODUCTION

A number of attempts have been made to estimate the

future scale of climate-related migration, but relatively few

peer-reviewed studies examine the risk as it applies to displace-

ment.1 The latter lack of evidence is surprising for at least

three reasons.

First, the impacts of unplanned or spontaneous mass displace-

ment would inevitably be disruptive and may trigger human-

itarian crises, something that is not expected in the case of

planned or adaptive migration.2

Second, the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for “ recom-

mendations for integrated approaches to avert, minimize and

address displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate

change” .3 If the risk of future displacement is to be addressed,

it must first be measured and its drivers identified.

Third, displacement associated with disasters is already a

significant global challenge. Climate and weather-related

hazards force tens of millions of people to flee their homes

every year.4 Floods trigger just over half of these displace-

ments, and storms more than a third (see figure 1).5

Geo

physic

al 12.73% Weather-related 87.27%

Dry massmovements

Wet massmovements

Extremetemperatures

Volcanicerupt ions

Wildfi resDrought

Earthquakes

(incl. tsunamis)

StormsFloods

50.62%34.54%

12.23%

0.77% 0.61% 0.46% 0.40% 0.34% 0.03%

Source: IDMC

Disaster displacement at a glance

What data is collected? By whom?

Challenge 1: Conceptual clarity

Migration / migration as

adaptation

Planned relocation

Displacement

Voluntary Forced/Involuntary

Challenge 1: Conceptual clarity

Typology of pastoralist movements

Challenge 2: Monitoring displacement over time

Filling gaps in observational data

Universal decay rate (Source: IDMC)Displacement est imates from Cyclone Fani in parts of India(Source: Facebook and IDMC)

Challenge 3: Attributing impacts of climate change

Challenge 3: Attributing impacts of climate change

Estimating displacement risk

Short-term variations between decades are the result of natural climate variability. The light lines show the different combinations of climate and hydrological models.

The darker lines show their average.

Relative change in global

displacement risk compared with the 1976 – 2005 baseline (RCP 2.6 + SSP 1 and RCP 6.0 +

SSP 4)

Estimating future flood displacement risk scenarios

Estimating the impact of global warming

Short-term variations between decades are the result of natural climate variability. The light lines show the different combinations of climate and hydrological models.

The darker lines show their average.

Relative change in global

displacement risk compared with the 1976 – 2005 baseline (Constant population and

RCPs 2.6 and 6.0)