climate change and energy security biicl annual conference 2010 11 th june 2010
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Climate change and energy security BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11 th June 2010 Professor Julia King CBE FREng Aston University Birmingham Member of the Committee on Climate Change. Climate change: why are we worried? Global and national targets UK – energy use and climate change - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate change and energy security
BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11th June 2010
Professor Julia King CBE FREngAston University BirminghamMember of the Committee on Climate Change
● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and climate change
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
● Business as usual: a high probability of global average temperature rise in excess of 4o, possibly as early as 2060
● Europe 8o warmer,12o on hottest day
● North America 10 – 12o warmer: Toronto, Chicago, New York, Washington DC
● Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes
● Rice yields down 30% in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia
● By 2080 40% of the world’s population has less than 1000 litres of water per year that’s just 3 litres a day or a bath a month
● 20 - 30% plant and animal species at high risk of extinction
● Sustained global temperature increase of 2o: 20 – 40% decline in rainforest
The impacts of climate change
BAU: land with decreased crop suitability in 2100
Met Office 2009
Or…security implications of climate change
Climate change
Public health
Migration and refugees Rise in extremism in
badly affected areas
Public discontent/disorder
Failure of critical infrastructure
Communications and transport
Strategic products and technologies
International relations
Energy security
Uninsurable risks
The impacts of climate change
Source: IPCC
● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and climate change
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
Required global emissions reduction
Required global emissions reduction of 50%
• 20-24 GtCO2e emissions in 2050
• 8-10 GtCO2e in 2100
Required global emissions reduction of 50%
• 20-24 GtCO2e emissions in 2050
• 8-10 GtCO2e in 2100
Why?• Advances in science• Actual emissions higher
than forecast
Why?• Advances in science• Actual emissions higher
than forecast
Assessment of damageDecision rule:• keep temperature
change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels
Assessment of damageDecision rule:• keep temperature
change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels
Global trajectories considered
• Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030)
• 3%/4% annual emissions reduction
Global trajectories considered
• Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030)
• 3%/4% annual emissions reduction
Appropriate developed country/UK contribution
50% global reduction 50% global reduction
Burden share• Alternative methodologies (contract and
converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.)
• Equal per capita emissions:
I 20-24 GtCO2e global total in 2050
I implies 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita
Burden share• Alternative methodologies (contract and
converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.)
• Equal per capita emissions:
I 20-24 GtCO2e global total in 2050
I implies 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita
All GHGsAll GHGsAviation and shipping included Aviation and shipping included
2.1-2.6 CO2e per capita gives a UK reduction of at least 80% by 2050
● In 2050 total CO2e per head needs to be
2.1 – 2.6 tonnes per annum
● A return flight to Los Angeles for 1 person
2.5 tonnes
● An average new car today (160g/km), driven
15,000km per year, emits
2.4 tonnes per annum
So what does that mean?
Global CO2 emissions
Source: WRI (2006)
Global CO2 emissions
Source: WRI (2006)
Energy emissions
How do we deal with global issues?
● Copenhagen, December 2009
● 120 Heads of State
● Agreement to keep below 2o
● No binding global agreement to reduce emissions
● But individual country targets
● now received from over 100 countries
● Potential to deliver 50% global reduction
● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and emissions
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
178
135
97
109
94
42
2007 emissions
International aviation & international shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industrial CO2 (heat & industrial processes)
Residential, public & commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity generation
* bunker fuels basis 2050 objective
159 Mt CO2e
679 Mt CO2e
76% cut (= 80% vs. 1990)
The scale of the UK CO2 challenge
Committee on Climate Change October 2009
Energyemissions
Meeting required reductions
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Application of power to transport
and heat
Power generation to 2050
Power sector decarbonisation
Emissions intensity to 2050
UK electricity installed capacity
DECC 2009
UK electricity generation 1996 - 2008
DECC 2009
Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020
CCC 2009
Generating capacity Generating mix
By 2020:Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total3 new nuclear plantsCCS demonstration plants
UK emissions 2006
2006 emissions
International aviation & shipping*
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
Residential & Commercial heat
Domestic transport
Electricity Generation
* bunker fuels basis
695 Mt CO2e
Non-energy emissions
Oil
Oil, Gas, Coal,Electricity, Renewables
Oil, Gas, Coal,Electricity, Renewables
Oil,Renewables
Gas, Coal,Nuclear,Renewables
● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and climate change
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
Energy security
● Physical security: avoiding involuntary
interruptions to supply
● Price security: avoiding spikes and providing
energy at reasonable prices to consumers
● Geopolitical security: ensuring the UK retains
independence in foreign policy by avoiding
dependence for energy on particular nationsDECC EMO 2008
Primary energy supply in the UK
Global energy suppliesDECC Energy Indicators
UK energy supply
● 2007 net importer – 20% of energy supply
● Crude oil: net imports of 7.5% of consumption
● Gas: 21% imported
● Coal: 72% imported
● 2025 increasing levels of imports:
● Crude oil: 61% imported
● Gas: 63% imported
● Coal: predictions less clear
● 2050 continuing upward trend in % imported
Where will our energy come from?
IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
By 2030 world energy demand will be up by 45%Fossil fuels sourced from less stable areas of the world
Some key import routes and suppliers for the future
● Oil and Gas
● Strait of Hormuz
● Suez Canal
● ….
● Gas
● Russia
● Turkey
● Coal
● Russia
Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy insecurity
Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020
CCC 2009
Generating capacity Generating mix
By 2020:Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total3 new nuclear plantsCCS demonstration plants
Meeting required reductions
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing power sector emissions:
Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency• Lifestyle change• Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps,
storage heating)• Biomass boilers• CCS in industry
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency• Electric/plug-in hybrids• Bio fuels (first vs. second
generation)
Application of power to transport
and heat
More radical renewables and nuclear strategies are feasible
CCC 2009
High feasible scenario for operational wind: 39% of generation
Severn barrage 8.6MW: 10% of generation………..
Existing low carbon electricity markets
CCC 2009
● Climate change: why are we worried?
● Global and national targets
● UK – energy use and climate change
● Energy security and climate change mitigation
● Conclusions
Conclusions
● Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy
insecurity and increased global insecurity and
instability
● Climate change mitigation → increasing energy
security and global stability
● Security, energy security, climate change impacts
and climate change mitigation are closely linked
● Joined-up thinking and planning are required to
ensure we address them together
UK path to an 80% or more reduction in 2050
2050 2008
Wind and nuclear
Energy efficiency improvement
Renewable heat
Electric heat
Electric cars/plug in hybrids
20201-2% of GDP
in 2050
Other renewable and CCS