Climate Change and Farm Level Adaptation Strategies

in the Midwestern U.S.

Rebecca A. PfeiferAg Consultant, New Palestine, IN

Otto DoeringDepartment of Agricultural Economics

Purdue University

Jane Southworth and J.C. RandolphSchool of Public and Environmental Affairs

Indiana University

Acknowledgments This research was funded by grant number R 824996-01 from the Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program of the U.S.E.P.A.

The HadCM2 data was provided by the Climate Impacts LINK Project (DETR Contract EPG 1/1/68) on behalf of the Hadley Center and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.

The VEMAP data was obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado.

Study region

Climate change modeled

Impact on Farm-Level Decisionsplanting date

varietycrop mix

Risk Assessments

Conclusions & suggestions for further research

Climate Change and YOU!

V = VEMAP, current conditions

S = Sulfate, moderate climate change

G = greenhouse gases, more extreme change

0.5X = half current climate variability

1.0X = current climate variability

2.0X = twice current climate variability

Naming Conventions

Eastern Wisconsin

-15-10

-505

1015202530354045

JanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNovDec

Month of the Year

Temperature (C)

-60

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-20

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Change in Precip.

(mm)

Southern Illinois

-15-10

-505

1015202530354045

JanFeb Mar AprMayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDecMonth of the Year

Temperature (C)

-60-40-20020406080100120

Change in Precip.

(mm)

( f ) ( e ) ( d )

( c ) ( b ) ( a )

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Change in Corn Yields under Climate Scenarios

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Change in Soybean Yields under Climate Scenarios

( f ) ( e ) ( d )

( c ) ( b ) ( a )

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Change in Winter Wheat Yields under Climate Scenarios

Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

Eastern Wisconsin

0

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70 100 130 160 190 220Yield (% current max)

Corn Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

Southern Illinois

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70 100 130 160 190 220Day of Year

Yield (% current max)

Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

Eastern Wisconsin

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70 100 130 160 190 220

Yield (% current max)

Soybean Yields by Planting Date under Climate Scenarios

Southern Illinois

04080

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Day of Year

Yield (% current max)

Planting date (day of year)

Yield

VEMAP SUL GHG

Potential for better adapted genotype

Comparison of Yield Response Curves

Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Current Climate

0%

20%

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100%

S ILSW IN

E ILEC IN

NW OHE WI

SW WIMI TH

SC MI

Southern Central Sites Northern sites

Crop Mix

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Returns ($/acre)

C-S C-W/S Returns

Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Sulfate Scenario

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E ILEC IN

NW OHE WI

SW WIMI TH

SC MI

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Crop Mix

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Returns ($/acre)

C-S C-W/S S-S Returns

Crop Mix and Returns to Resources under Greenhouse Gases Scenario

0%

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S IL SWINE IL ECIN NWOH

E WISW

WI MITH SC

MI

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Crop Mix

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Returns ($/acre)

C-S C-W/S S-S Returns

Returns to Resources by Site and Scenario

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V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G V S G

S IL SW IN E IL EC IN NWOH

E WI SW WI MI TH SC MI

Southern Sites Central Sites Northern sites

Returns ($/acre)

0

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Vemap 0.5S 1.0S 2.0S 0.5G 1.0G 2.0G(a) Corn

Yield (kg/ha)

Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Southern Illinois

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Vemap 0.5S 1.0S 2.0S 0.5G 1.0G 2.0G(a) Corn

Yield (kg/ha)

Corn Yield Variability by Scenario at Eastern Wisconsin

Eastern Wisconsin Southern Illinois

Risk and Distribution of Corn Yields by Climate Variability

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0.5 1 2GHG Variability

Probability

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0.5 1 2GHG Variability

Probability

Conclusions

Climate change will impact midwestern grain farmers, input suppliers, ag financial institutions

Impacts will vary significantly within region, especially north to south

Adaptation strategies include equipment improvements (working rates), later planting dates, varieties better suited to mid-season heat and climate variability, crop mix adjustments, changes in operation financing

Further research

Where are the better-suited varieties?

Will demand for better adapted crops make them worthwhile to grow?

As time passes, models will improve – update research…

Will ag policy keep pace with changes to the farming environment