climate change and future food insecurity
DESCRIPTION
Slides from my presentation at the Food and Water Security Conference held at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. Event was sponsored by the Global Interdependence Center and the Philadelphia CFA society.TRANSCRIPT
FoodandWater:BasicChallengestoInterna5onalStabilityClimateChangeandFutureFoodInsecurity
PaulE.WalshFounderandManagingPrincipalG2WeatherIntelligence,LLC
Overview
• IntroducBon• WeatherRiskManagementOverview• ClimateChangePrimer• TheNext100Years:Climate“DisrupBon”andFoodSecurity
• TheNextFewYears:TheDebateHeatsUp• QuesBons
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HelpingbusinessesmakemoremoneybyproacBvelyplanningfortheinfluenceofweatheronconsumersandbusiness
“Always check the weather
report before you pray for
rain.”
‐MarkTwain
ManagingWeather‐RelatedUncertainty
Threecomponents:
1. Understandingvalueatrisk($)
2. OperaBonalmanagement(managingtheknowable) Real‐Bme TacBcal Seasonal Verylong‐lead(decades)ScenarioPlanning
3. Financialmanagement(hedgingtheunknowable) WeatherderivaBvehedgingsoluBons
Trust,butVerify:OnSeasonalForecasBng,Uncertainty,andWeatherRiskManagement
• Seasonalforecastsusefulforunderstandingclimatetrendsandanomalies
• ForecastsbasedonlargescaleinteracBonsbetweentheoceanandatmosphere
• Opera&onal/policydecisionsshapedbyprobabili&esandoddsviceabsolutes
• Financialhedgingusedtooffsettheuncertaintyinherentinseasonalforecast
“Climatechangeposesclear,catastrophicthreats.Wemaynotagreeontheextent,butwecertainlycan'taffordtheriskofinac5on.”RupertMurdoch,CEO,NewsCorp
“…thethreatofcatastrophicglobalwarmingisthegreatesthoaxeverperpetratedontheAmericanpeople,”U.S.Sen.JamesM.Inhofe(R‐Okla)
PhotocourtesyofSmilingPug
ClimateChangePrimerfromthePresident’sScienceandTechnologyAdvisor
TheHockeySBck
Source:JohnHoldrenTheScienceofClimateDisrupBon
TheSmokingGun
Source:JohnHoldrenTheScienceofClimateDisrupBon
Source:JohnHoldrenTheScienceofClimateDisrupBon
IncreasedFrequencyofHeatWaves
2003 2040
WarningsofFutureFoodInsecurityWithUnprecedentedSeasonalHeat
“Thefoodcrisisof2006‐2008demonstratesthefragilenatureoffeedingtheworld’shumanpopulaBon.“
‐DavidBafsB,UniversityofWashingtonandRosamondNaylor,Stanford
HigherGrowingSeasonTemperaturesHaveDramaBcImpactsonAgricultureProducBvity
• AvoidingaperpetualfoodcrisisundercondiBonsofglobalwarmingaseriousfuturechallenge
• Directyieldlossesinthetropicsandsub‐tropicsesBmatedat2.5to16%forevery1°Cincreaseinseasonaltemperature
Source:DavidBafsB,UniversityofWashingtonandRosamondNaylor,Stanford
>90%ProbabilityGrowingSeasonTemperaturesinthetropicsandsubtropicsbytheendofthe21stcenturywillexceedthemostextremeseasonaltemperaturesrecordedfrom1900to2006
‐DavidBafsB,UniversityofWashingtonandRosamondNaylor,Stanford
RegionalExamples:France
• Summer2003heatwaveinwesternEurope
• >30Kkilled• 20%to30%decreasesinagricultureproducBon
• Projec5onscallforthatlevelofheattobethenormbytheendofthecentury
‐DavidBafsB,UniversityofWashingtonandRosamondNaylor,Stanford
RegionalDisrupBonsHaveGlobalImplicaBons
• CountriesrespondtoproducBonandpricevolaBlitybyrestricBngtradeorpurchasinglargequanBBesoninternaBonalmarkets
• Futureheatstressoncropsandlivestockwilloccurinanenvironmentofrisingdemandforfoodandanimalfeedmakingmarketsmorevulnerabletopriceswings
• Mostdamagingtopoorhouseholdsthatspendthemajorityoftheirincomesonstaplefoods
WorldBankWeatherRiskManagementEffortsinMalawi
WorldBankWeatherRiskManagementEffortsinMalawi
WorldBankWeatherRiskManagementEffortsinMalawi
WorldBankWeatherRiskManagementEffortsinMalawi
HeaBnguptheClimateChangeDebate
• PossiblewecouldbeenteringintoaperiodofcoolingacrossthepopulatedregionsintheNorthernHemisphere
• ThePacificDecadalOscilla5on(PDO)isapabernofPacificclimatevariabilitythatshiksphasesonatleastinter‐decadalBmescales,usuallyabout20to30years
ANewRegimeofColderWeather?
??
“Ingeneral,theclimateregimenolongerresemblestherecentwarmspellofthelast25years.ThepersistenceoftheverycoldPacificOceanofthethelastcoupleofyearshasresultedin…paKernsmoresimilartothe1950s‐1970s.Ifthis“old‐school”paKernpersistsmuchlonger,theglobaloceanswillconQnuetocooloff,andwewilllikelyheadintoacoolermulQ‐decadalclimateregime.”‐‐DrToddCrawford,WSISeasonalForecaster
Spring2009WeatherDriver:LaNinaRedux
TypicalJanuary–MarchWeatherDuringModeratetoStrongElNinoandLaNina
SummaryPoints
• Science:>90%likely(“virtuallycertain”)climatechangewillresultinsignificantglobalfooddisrupBonsthiscentury
• Tropicsandsub‐tropicsthemostatriskforsignificantdisrupBon;impacBngthemostvulnerablepopulaBons
• SoluBonslikelytocomeintheformofadapBvetechnologiesandincreasinguseoffinancialhedginginstruments
• PoliBcaldebatere:climatechangemaybeheaBngupoverthenextfewyearsifthePDOphaseshikresultsinalong‐termreturntocoolertemperatures
• ComplicaBngthetransformaBonalandadapBvechangesneededtomanagethecomingchallenges
QuesBons?
PaulWalsh,G2WeatherIntelligenceLLC
– Direct:+1.917.463.4238– Mobile:+1.610.246.0623– Blog/Website:www.G2Weather.com
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