Download - Climate Change and Future Food Insecurity
FoodandWater:BasicChallengestoInterna5onalStabilityClimateChangeandFutureFoodInsecurity
PaulE.WalshFounderandManagingPrincipalG2WeatherIntelligence,LLC
Overview
• IntroducBon• WeatherRiskManagementOverview• ClimateChangePrimer• TheNext100Years:Climate“DisrupBon”andFoodSecurity
• TheNextFewYears:TheDebateHeatsUp• QuesBons
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HelpingbusinessesmakemoremoneybyproacBvelyplanningfortheinfluenceofweatheronconsumersandbusiness
“Always check the weather
report before you pray for
rain.”
‐MarkTwain
ManagingWeather‐RelatedUncertainty
Threecomponents:
1. Understandingvalueatrisk($)
2. OperaBonalmanagement(managingtheknowable) Real‐Bme TacBcal Seasonal Verylong‐lead(decades)ScenarioPlanning
3. Financialmanagement(hedgingtheunknowable) WeatherderivaBvehedgingsoluBons
Trust,butVerify:OnSeasonalForecasBng,Uncertainty,andWeatherRiskManagement
• Seasonalforecastsusefulforunderstandingclimatetrendsandanomalies
• ForecastsbasedonlargescaleinteracBonsbetweentheoceanandatmosphere
• Opera&onal/policydecisionsshapedbyprobabili&esandoddsviceabsolutes
• Financialhedgingusedtooffsettheuncertaintyinherentinseasonalforecast
“Climatechangeposesclear,catastrophicthreats.Wemaynotagreeontheextent,butwecertainlycan'taffordtheriskofinac5on.”RupertMurdoch,CEO,NewsCorp
“…thethreatofcatastrophicglobalwarmingisthegreatesthoaxeverperpetratedontheAmericanpeople,”U.S.Sen.JamesM.Inhofe(R‐Okla)
PhotocourtesyofSmilingPug
ClimateChangePrimerfromthePresident’sScienceandTechnologyAdvisor
TheHockeySBck
Source:JohnHoldrenTheScienceofClimateDisrupBon
TheSmokingGun
Source:JohnHoldrenTheScienceofClimateDisrupBon
Source:JohnHoldrenTheScienceofClimateDisrupBon
IncreasedFrequencyofHeatWaves
2003 2040
WarningsofFutureFoodInsecurityWithUnprecedentedSeasonalHeat
“Thefoodcrisisof2006‐2008demonstratesthefragilenatureoffeedingtheworld’shumanpopulaBon.“
‐DavidBafsB,UniversityofWashingtonandRosamondNaylor,Stanford
HigherGrowingSeasonTemperaturesHaveDramaBcImpactsonAgricultureProducBvity
• AvoidingaperpetualfoodcrisisundercondiBonsofglobalwarmingaseriousfuturechallenge
• Directyieldlossesinthetropicsandsub‐tropicsesBmatedat2.5to16%forevery1°Cincreaseinseasonaltemperature
Source:DavidBafsB,UniversityofWashingtonandRosamondNaylor,Stanford
>90%ProbabilityGrowingSeasonTemperaturesinthetropicsandsubtropicsbytheendofthe21stcenturywillexceedthemostextremeseasonaltemperaturesrecordedfrom1900to2006
‐DavidBafsB,UniversityofWashingtonandRosamondNaylor,Stanford
RegionalExamples:France
• Summer2003heatwaveinwesternEurope
• >30Kkilled• 20%to30%decreasesinagricultureproducBon
• Projec5onscallforthatlevelofheattobethenormbytheendofthecentury
‐DavidBafsB,UniversityofWashingtonandRosamondNaylor,Stanford
RegionalDisrupBonsHaveGlobalImplicaBons
• CountriesrespondtoproducBonandpricevolaBlitybyrestricBngtradeorpurchasinglargequanBBesoninternaBonalmarkets
• Futureheatstressoncropsandlivestockwilloccurinanenvironmentofrisingdemandforfoodandanimalfeedmakingmarketsmorevulnerabletopriceswings
• Mostdamagingtopoorhouseholdsthatspendthemajorityoftheirincomesonstaplefoods
WorldBankWeatherRiskManagementEffortsinMalawi
WorldBankWeatherRiskManagementEffortsinMalawi
WorldBankWeatherRiskManagementEffortsinMalawi
WorldBankWeatherRiskManagementEffortsinMalawi
HeaBnguptheClimateChangeDebate
• PossiblewecouldbeenteringintoaperiodofcoolingacrossthepopulatedregionsintheNorthernHemisphere
• ThePacificDecadalOscilla5on(PDO)isapabernofPacificclimatevariabilitythatshiksphasesonatleastinter‐decadalBmescales,usuallyabout20to30years
ANewRegimeofColderWeather?
??
“Ingeneral,theclimateregimenolongerresemblestherecentwarmspellofthelast25years.ThepersistenceoftheverycoldPacificOceanofthethelastcoupleofyearshasresultedin…paKernsmoresimilartothe1950s‐1970s.Ifthis“old‐school”paKernpersistsmuchlonger,theglobaloceanswillconQnuetocooloff,andwewilllikelyheadintoacoolermulQ‐decadalclimateregime.”‐‐DrToddCrawford,WSISeasonalForecaster
Spring2009WeatherDriver:LaNinaRedux
TypicalJanuary–MarchWeatherDuringModeratetoStrongElNinoandLaNina
SummaryPoints
• Science:>90%likely(“virtuallycertain”)climatechangewillresultinsignificantglobalfooddisrupBonsthiscentury
• Tropicsandsub‐tropicsthemostatriskforsignificantdisrupBon;impacBngthemostvulnerablepopulaBons
• SoluBonslikelytocomeintheformofadapBvetechnologiesandincreasinguseoffinancialhedginginstruments
• PoliBcaldebatere:climatechangemaybeheaBngupoverthenextfewyearsifthePDOphaseshikresultsinalong‐termreturntocoolertemperatures
• ComplicaBngthetransformaBonalandadapBvechangesneededtomanagethecomingchallenges
QuesBons?
PaulWalsh,G2WeatherIntelligenceLLC
– Direct:+1.917.463.4238– Mobile:+1.610.246.0623– Blog/Website:www.G2Weather.com
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