climate change and global food security: impacts and policy responses
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Climate Change and Global Food Security: Impacts and Policy Responses. Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Seminar organized by the School of Economics, UP Diliman , Philippines January 10, 2014. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and Global Food Security:
Impacts and Policy ResponsesMark W. Rosegrant
DirectorEnvironment and Production Technology Division
Seminar organized by the School of Economics, UP Diliman, PhilippinesJanuary 10, 2014
Outline Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food
Security Scenario Modeling Methodology Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Adaptation Costs Agricultural Research Investment Impacts Conclusions and Policy Responses
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Supply drivers• Climate change• Water and land scarcity• Investment in agricultural research• Science and technology policy
– Discovery, development, delivery– Intellectual property rights,
regulatory systems, extensionhttp://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/images/btcotton_rice.jpg
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/20040721/har.jpg
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Demand drivers• Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050• Urbanization: 2008 = 50% urban; 2050 = 78% • Income growth: Africa rising• Oil prices• Biofuels and bioenergy• GHG mitigation and carbon
sequestration • Conservation and biodiversity http://
www.government.nl/dsc?c=getobject&s=obj&objectid=101492
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Rapid income growth and urbanization - effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production• Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for
grains for feed • Half of growth in grain demand will be for
livestock• Intense pressure on land and water (highly water-intensive diet)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_(282678968).jpg
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Scenario Modeling Methodology
Climate Change Model Components GCM climate scenarios
• Multiple GCM using IPCC SRES A1B scenario, downscaled temperature and rainfall
SPAM • Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars, soil
characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops
DSSAT crop model• Biophysical crop response to temp and precipitation
IMPACT• Global food supply demand model to 2050 with global
hydrology and water simulation by river basin
DSSAT Crop Models Simulate plant growth and crop yield by variety day-
by-day, in response to • Temperature• Precipitation• Soil characteristics• Applied nitrogen• CO2 fertilization
DSSAT-based simulations at crop-specific locations (using local climate, soil and topographical attributes)
Maize: 15,576 cells; Soybean: 9,930; Rice: 9,176; Wheat: 18,661
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The IMPACT Model
IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade”
Global partial equilibrium model Global
• 115 countries • 281 food production units (countries x river
basins)• 46 agricultural commodities
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IMPACT Model Structure Crop area is a function of crop prices, irrigation investment,
water input, climate change Yield is a function of crop price, input price, irrigation
investment, water inputs, exogenous yield growth Exogenous yield growth is a function of investment in
agricultural research, irrigation, and rural roads Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income,
and population Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed
prices, and feeding efficiency Biofuel demand is computed based on policy mandates and
targets
Climate Change Impacts
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
(MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate Change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -10.5%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
(MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -16.1 %
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate Change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)
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Yield changes due to climate change, 2050:Irrigated Rice
MIR/A1B: -6.2%
ECH/A1B: -6.0% CSI/A1B: -3.3%
CNR/A1B: -6.9%
Source: IFPRI
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Yield changes due to climate change, 2050:Rainfed Rice
Source: IFPRIMIR/A1B: -0.9%
ECH/A1B: +2.0% CSI/A1B: +0.9%
CNR/A1B: +0.6%
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Yield changes due to climate change, 2050:Rainfed Maize
Source: IFPRI
CNR/A1B: -22.2% ECH/A1B: -15.4%
MIR/A1B: -13.0% CSI/A1B: -10.2%
Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100)
Wheat Maize Rice0
50
100
150
200
2502010 2050 no CC 2050 CC
Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Impact on Calorie Consumption Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 12 % decline in developing countries
South Asia
East Asia
and Pacific
Europe a
nd Cen
tral A
sia
Latin A
merica a
nd Cari
bbean
Middle East
and N
orth A
frica
Sub Saharan A
frica
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500 2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC
kCal
/Cap
ita/d
ay
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Impact on Childhood MalnutritionAverage of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 10% increase in developing countries
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000 2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC
Mill
ions
of C
hild
ren
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Climate Change Adaptation Costs Estimated in
IMPACT Model
Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation
Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change
What types of investments considered?• Agricultural research
• Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements
• Rural roads
Adaptation Costs are Large Required additional annual expenditure:
US$7.1 - $7.3 billion
Regional level• Sub-Saharan Africa - 40% of the total, mainly for rural
roads• South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation
efficiency • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per
year, research• East Asia and the Pacific - US$1 billion per year,
research and irrigation efficiency
Agricultural Research Investment Impacts
Increased Investment Scenario Compared to Baseline Climate Change
Increased Investment in Agricultural R&D• Baseline assumes continuation of trend
growth, 2000-2008, in CGIAR and NARS agricultural R&D
• Increased investment scenario: Level of CGIAR and NARS investment in agricultural R&D is doubled by 2020 compared to the baseline, then baseline trend to 2030
Changes in World Prices of Crops Relative to Baseline, 2030
Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment
Rice -23.7%Wheat -13.5%Maize -9.4%Millet -20.9%Sorghum -15.6%Other Grains -7.7%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
Commodity/Scenario Increased Investment
Beef -14.6%
Pork -12.6%
Poultry -14.0%
Sheep & Goat -16.7%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
Changes in World Prices of Meat Relative to Baseline, 2030
Commodity/Scenario Increased InvestmentsEast Asia and Pacific 22.0%
Europe and Central Asia 5.1%
Latin America and Caribbean 8.6%
Middle East and North Africa 21.6%
South Asia 21.4%
Sub-Saharan Africa 20.2%
Developed -0.9%
Developing 16.9%
World 11.2%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
Changes in Cereal YieldRelative to Baseline, 2030
Commodity/Scenario Increased InvestmentsEast Asia and Pacific -4.9%
Europe and Central Asia -5.1%
Latin America and Caribbean -5.7%
Middle East and North Africa -3.4%
South Asia -5.7%
Sub-Saharan Africa -7.6%
Developed -5.6%
Developing -5.6%
World -5.6%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
Changes in Cereal Crop AreaRelative to Baseline, 2030
Commodity/Scenario Increased InvestmentEast Asia and Pacific 9.8%
Europe and Central Asia 10.5%
Latin America and Caribbean 8.6%
Middle East and North Africa 9.2%
South Asia 8.9%
Sub-Saharan Africa 9.1%
Developed -2.0%
Developing 9.4%
World 6.0%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
Changes in Production of MeatRelative to Baseline, 2030
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Commodity/Scenario Increased InvestmentsEast Asia and Pacific -16.5%
Europe and Central Asia -8.8%
Latin America and Caribbean -10.2%
Middle East and North Africa -11.6%
South Asia -4.2%
Sub-Saharan Africa -7.8%
Developed -5.6%
Developing -7.1%
World -6.9%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
Impact on Number of Malnourished Children Relative to Baseline, 2030
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Commodity/Scenario Increased InvestmentsEast Asia and Pacific -13.4%
Europe and Central Asia -2.8%
Latin America and Caribbean -30.6%
Middle East and North Africa -11.7%
South Asia -32.2%
Sub-Saharan Africa -27.3%
Developed -7.0%
Developing -26.0%
World -24.9%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model
Impact on Population at Risk of Hunger
Relative to Baseline, 2030
Conclusions and Policy Responses
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Agriculture’s Role is Critical part of the PROBLEM and part of the SOLUTION
Source: Farming First 2012 with data from IWMI; UK Foresight Project; WRI; CIA, World Bank; ILO and FAO (clockwise)
• Majority of the world’s farms are small
• Small farmers represent bulk of world’s poor and 50% of world’s hungry (Hazell et al. 2007)
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Building Sustainable Productivity Growth and Resilient Agricultural and Food Systems
1. Accelerate investments in agricultural R&D for productivity growth
2. Invest in climate-smart agriculture
3. Promote complementary policies and investments
4. Reform economic policies
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Invest in technologies for Crop and livestock breeding
• High-yielding varieties• Biotic- and abiotic-stress
resistant varieties Modernize crop water productivity
breeding programs in developing countries through provision of genomics, high throughput gene-sequencing, bio-informatics and computer
GMOs where genetic variation does not exist in the crop • Nitrogen use efficiency• Drought, heat and salinity
tolerance• Insect and disease resistance
+
1. Accelerate Investments in Agricultural R&D for smallholder productivity
Global public spending on agric. R&D, 2008 (%)
Source: ASTI 2012
2. Invest in Climate-smart Agriculture“triple wins” - productivity, adaptation, mitigation
CROP MANAGEMENT PRACTICE PRODUCTIVITY IMPACTS ADAPTATION BENEFITS GHG MITIGATION
POTENTIAL
Improved crop varieties or types
Increased crop yields & reduced yield variability
Increased resilience against climate change
Increased soil carbon storage
Improved crop rotation/fallowing/rotation with legumes
Increased soil fertility & yields due to nitrogen fixing in soils
Improved soil fertility & water holding capacity increases resilience to climate change
High mitigation potential, esp. crop rotation with legumes
Use of cover crops
Increased yields due to erosion control & reduced nutrient leaching
Improved soil fertility & water holding capacity increases resilience
High mitigation potential through increased soil carbon sequestration
Appropriate use of fertilizer and manure
Higher yields Improved productivity increases resilience to climate change
High mitigation potential, esp. where fertilizer has been underutilized
Source: Bryan et al. 2011
Potential Synergies between productivity, climate change adaptation, and GHG mitigation
3. Promote Complementary Policies and Investments
Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation Increase access to high-value supply chains and
markets e.g. fruits, vegetables, and milk Promote farmer-friendly innovations
• Financial and information services e.g. community banking, ICTs
• Farming systems: minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, precision agriculture
• Institutional arrangements e.g. producer cooperatives
Support open trading regimes to share climate risk
Use market-based approaches to manage water and environmental services combined with secure property rights
Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and encourage water use beyond economically appropriate levels• Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies• Savings invested in activities that boost farm
output and income
4. Reform Economic Policies