climate change and implications for midwest agriculture
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Climate Change and Implications for Midwest Agriculture. Eugene S. Takle and Christopher J. Anderson Department of Agronomy Climate Science Program Iowa State University Ames, IA 50011 [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Eugene S. Takle and Christopher J. AndersonDepartment of AgronomyClimate Science Program
Iowa State UniversityAmes, IA 50011
Climate Change and Implications for Midwest Agriculture
Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and Change Projections at the Local Scale
27th Conference on Hydrology 93rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
Overview
Coupling RCMs to impacts modelsModel coupling and uncertainty (streamflow example)
Impacts examples: Lessons learned
NARCCAP dataFood Security
Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*Subsurface tile drainageWind energySolar energySoil carbonExtreme precipitationExtreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past climate)Building energy use (changing national standards)*Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact models) Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*
Characterizing and Quantifying Uncertainty
Streamflow vs. Precipitation
Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*Subsurface tile drainageWind energySolar energySoil carbonExtreme precipitationExtreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past climate)Building energy use (changing national standards)*Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact models) Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*
Total Heating Cooling-60.0-40.0-20.0
0.020.040.060.080.0
100.0Medium Office Energy Change
Ener
gy C
hang
e (%
)
Mason City, Iowa
Total Heating Cooling-60.0-40.0-20.0
0.020.040.060.080.0
100.0
Medium Office Energy Change
Ener
gy C
hang
e (%
)
Atlanta, Georgia
Total Heating Cooling-60.0-40.0-20.0
0.020.040.060.080.0
100.0Secondary School Energy Change
Ener
gy C
hang
e (%
)
Total Heating Cooling-60.0-40.0-20.0
0.020.040.060.080.0
100.0
Secondary School Energy ChangeEn
ergy
Cha
nge
(%)
Climate Change Impact on Building Energy Use
Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*Subsurface tile drainageWind energySolar energySoil carbonExtreme precipitationExtreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past climate)Building energy use (changing national standards)*Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact models) Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*
2011
2012
18701877188418911898190519121919192619331940194719541961196819751982198919962003201010.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
R² = 0.010782029618847
Total Annual State-Wide Average Precipitation
Year
Tota
l Ave
rage
Pre
cipi
tatio
n (in
ches
) 1 yearTotals above 40”
7 years3 years
5 years
Totals below 25”2012
Iowa State-Wide Average
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Number of Days with a Maximum Temperature Greater Than or Equal to 100°F
Year
Num
ber o
f Day
s 1974: 71977: 8
1983: 13
1988: 1011 days in 2012
6 days ≥ 100oF in 23 years
Des Moines, IA Airport Data
Harvest Area (2000) for Maize and Soybeans
Soybeans
Maize
NARCCAP Change in JJA Precipitation
NARCCAP Change in JJA Precipitation
Changes in Precipitation Simulated by Four GCM Future Scenario Climates (2050-2000)
Takle, ES, D Gustafson, R Beachy, GC Nelson, D Mason-D’Croz, and A Palazzo, 2011: US Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures. Int’l Conf. on Climate Change and Food Security. Chinese Academy of Agriculural Sciences, Beijing, China.
Changes in Simulated Maize Yields Under Four GCM Future Scenario Climates (2050-2000)
Takle, ES, D Gustafson, R Beachy, GC Nelson, D Mason-D’Croz, and A Palazzo, 2011: US Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures. Int’l Conf. on Climate Change and Food Security. Chinese Academy of Agriculural Sciences, Beijing, China.
Changes in Simulated Soybean Yields Under Four GCM Future Scenario Climates (2050-2000)
Takle, ES, D Gustafson, R Beachy, GC Nelson, D Mason-D’Croz, and A Palazzo, 2011: US Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures. Int’l Conf. on Climate Change and Food Security. Chinese Academy of Agriculural Sciences, Beijing, China.
Summary
Pay attention to model uncertainty before jumping to conclusions about climate change
Each impacts model seems to bring its own set of climate model interpretation issues
Evaluation of mid-century food security is complex and needs both high resolution climate and pest/pathogen modeling in addition to crop modeling
For More Information:
Climate Science ProgramIowa State University
http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/