Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation

Jerry L. HatfieldLaboratory Director National Laboratory for Agriculture and the

EnvironmentDirector, Midwest Climate Hub2110 University BlvdAmes, Iowa 50011515-294-5723515-294-8125 (fax)jerry.hatfield@ars.usda.gov

Building soil organic matter, such as by minimum/conservation tillage; Note: Soil OM is third largest carbon pool on earth;

Integrated nutrient management practices, such as green manures, planting of legumes, livestock manure.

Increase water and nitrate use efficiency, irrigation, water harvesting;

Improve livestock management practices, grassland management, land restoration,and apply agro forestry.

BETTER SOIL AND WATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE KEY

Inputs Temperature Precipitation Solar radiation Carbon dioxide

DirectGrowthPhenologyYield

IndirectInsectsDiseases Weeds

Soil is the underlying factor as a resource for nutrients and water

Climate disruptions have increased in past 40 years and projected to increase over the next 25 years. By mid-century and beyond, these impacts will be increasingly negative on most crops and livestock.

Many agricultural regions will experience declines in crop and livestock production from increased stress due to weeds, diseases, insect pests, and other climate change induced stresses.

Lobell et al. 2011 Science 333:616-620

Story Co Corn

Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Yiel

d (b

u ac

re-1

)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Actual Yield Attainable Yield Yield Gap

Christian Co Corn

Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Yiel

d (b

u ac

re-1

)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Actual Yield Attainable YieldYield Gap

Soybean Story Co Iowa

Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Yiel

d (b

u ac

re-1

)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Actual Yield Attainable Yield Yield Gap

Christian Co Soybean

Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Yiel

d (b

u ac

re-1

)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Actual Yield Attainable Yield Yield Gap

Iowa Maize Story County

Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Yiel

d (k

g ha

-1)

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Attainable YieldActual YieldYield Gap

Iowa Maize Story County

Fraction of Attainable Yield0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Cum

ulat

ive

Freq

uenc

y

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Corn Hybrid RX730

Days after Planting0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Tota

l Col

lars

0

5

10

15

20

25

Normal TemperaturesWarm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid DK 61-72

Days after Planting0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Tota

l Col

lars

0

5

10

15

20

25

Normal TemperaturesWarm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid XL45A

Days after Planting0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Tota

l Col

lars

0

5

10

15

20

25

Normal TemperaturesWarm Temperatures

Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal chamber with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns.

2139 13700 0 7323 2168 12962 kg ha-1

Corn Hybrid RX730

Days after Planting20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Tota

l Col

lars

0

5

10

15

20

25

Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid DKC61-72

Days after Planting20 40 60 80 100 120

Tota

l Col

lars

0

5

10

15

20

25

Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid XL45A

Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120

Tota

l Col

lars

0

5

10

15

20

25

Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures

Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal chamber with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns.

599 4711 342 3053 0 4197 kg ha-1

Corn Hybrid RX730

Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cum

ulat

ive

Leaf

Are

a (c

m2 )

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Normal TemperaturesWarm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid DK 61-72

Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cum

ulat

ive

Leaf

Are

a (c

m2 )

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid XL45A

Days after Planting20 40 60 80 100 120

Cum

ulat

ive

Leaf

Are

a (c

m2 )

0

2000

4000

6000

Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid DKC61-72

Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cum

ulat

ive

Leaf

Are

a (c

m2 )

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid XL45A

Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cum

ulat

ive

Leaf

Are

a (c

m2 )

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures

Corn Hybrid RX730

Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cum

ulat

ive

Leaf

Are

a (c

m2 )

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Normal TemperaturesWarm Temperatures

First Run

Second Run

Mishra and Cherkauer, 2010

Current loss and degradation of critical soil and water assets due to increasing extremes in precipitation will continue to challenge both rainfed and irrigated agriculture unless innovative conservation methods are implemented

The rising incidence of weather extremes will have increasingly negative impacts on crop and livestock productivity because critical thresholds are already being exceeded

Mean NCCPI

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Cou

nty

Yiel

d (g

m-2

)

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

KentuckyIowaNebraska

Kentucky(Double crop)Y = 131.187 + 187.458X. r2 = 0.72***

Soybean yields across Iowa, Kentucky, and Nebraska

Climate resilience is derived from good soils in rainfed agricultural systems

NCCPI-AG

0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Mea

n C

ount

y Yi

eld

(g m

-2)

500

600

700

800

900

1000

KentuckyIowa

Y = 436.096 + 478.149X, r2 = 0.58***

Corn 2010-2012Total Season

Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2)

650 700 750 800 850 900 950

Gra

in Y

ield

(kg

ha-1

)

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

201020112012

Corn 2010-2012Grain-filling

Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2)

250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650

Gra

in Y

ield

(kg

ha-1

)

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

201020112012

Agriculture has been able to adapt to recent changes in climate; however, increased innovation will be needed over the next 25 years.

Climate change effects on agriculture will have consequences for food security, both in the US and globally, through changes in crop yields and food prices and effects on food processing, storage, transportation, and retailing.

20092010

2011

2012

2013

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 5 10 15 20

July

-Aug

ust

Pre

cipi

tati

on (i

n)

May-June Precipitation (in)

Spring and Summer Rainfall- Ohio

1895-1980

1981-2013

Dry SpringWet Summer

Wet SpringWet Summer

Dry SpringDry Summer

Wet SpringDry Summer

20082010

2011

2012 2013

0

5

10

15

20

0 5 10 15 20

July

-Aug

ust

Pre

cipi

tati

on (i

n)

May-June Precipitation (in)

Spring and Summer Rainfall- Illinois

1895-1980

1981-2013

Dry SpringWet Summer

Wet SpringWet Summer

Dry SpringDry Summer

Wet SpringDry Summer

2009

2010

2011

20122013

0

5

10

15

20

0 5 10 15 20

July

-Aug

ust

Pre

cipi

tati

on (i

n)

May-June Precipitation (in)

Spring and Summer Rainfall- Minnesota

1895-1980

1981-2013

Dry SpringWet Summer

Wet SpringWet Summer

Dry SpringDry Summer

Wet SpringDry Summer

Organic Matter (%)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Avai

labl

e W

ater

Con

tent

(%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Data Points Sand, AWC = 3.8 + 2.2 OMSilt Loam, AWC = 9.2 + 3.7 OMSilty clay loam, AWC = 6.3 + 2.8 OM

Degrading the soil resource decreases the water holding capacity

Hudson, 1994

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Pre

cipi

tati

on (i

n)Annual Precipitation- Minnesota

Annual

Spring Annual

Summer Annual

Linear (Annual)

Linear (Spring Annual)

Linear (Summer Annual)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Pre

cipi

tati

on (i

n)Annual Precipitation- Iowa

Annual

Spring Annual

Summer Annual

Linear (Annual)

Linear (Spring Annual)

Linear (Summer Annual)

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Pre

cipi

tati

on (i

n)Minnesota Precipitation: 1901-2010

30 Year Mean

Annual Mean

Min Limit

Max Limit

Midwest Corn Production

Year1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Tota

l Cla

ims

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Excessive Moisture/PrecipitationDroughtFrost

Midwest Soybean Crop Insurance

Year1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Tota

l Ins

uran

ce C

laim

s

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Insu

ranc

e Pa

yout

s ($

)

0.0

2.0e+8

4.0e+8

6.0e+8

8.0e+8

1.0e+9

1.2e+9

1.4e+9

1.6e+9

1.8e+9

Total ClaimsTotal Dollars in Claims

Projected changes in key climate variables affecting agricultural productivity

National Climate Assessment

54.8

55.2

55.6

56

56.4

56.8

57.2

57.6

58

58.4

58.8

59.2

59.6

60

60.4

60.8

61.2

61.6

62

62.4

62.8

63.2

63.6

64

64.4

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Max

Tem

pera

ture

(F)

Iowa Max Temperature: 1901-2010

30 Year Mean

Annual Mean

Min Limit

Max Limit

33.2

33.6

34

34.4

34.8

35.2

35.6

36

36.4

36.8

37.2

37.6

38

38.4

38.8

39.2

39.6

40

40.4

40.8

41.2

41.6

42

42.4

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Min

Tem

pera

ture

(F)

Iowa Min Temperature: 1901-2010

30 Year Mean

Annual Mean

Min Limit

Max Limit

How cold does it get in the wintertime? Was it warm before the cold spell occurred? In the springtime when fruit crops start to grow, when

gardeners are planting, farmers start to plant corn –like to know a month beforehand if the temperature was going to get below 20F or 25F and for how long

Fall:▪ When harvesting freeze tender crops – what is the chance for

a freeze in the next week?▪ If growing hops and it freezes, the harvest is over in 24 hours

Prediction of dew point temps at night, In terms of cooling animals, it’s not how high during the day but how much it cools off at night, as well as the high dew points

When the animals can’t cool off at night, that’s problematic The only technique currently to effectively cool animal housing

is by sprinkling – which is useless when the dew points are already high (they don’t have air conditioning)

Heat stress is the most important for livestock▪ For dairy, there is heat stress above 65F▪ It is difficult to cool big birds with large feathers

Other issues▪ When livestock producers lose electrical power, they have minutes to

do something or you have dead animals▪ Transport of animals during summer requires special attention to

temperature and humidity conditions to ensure safe transport.

Has the range changed with the changing climate?

Will within season weather affect the dynamics of pests and disease populations?

Can we develop more effective prediction tools?

Linked together to protect and enhance the natural resources of soil, water, and air

The goal is to integrate information to deliver solutions to producers through a variety of outlets