climate change and india: presentation to india-eu round table prodipto ghosh, ph.d distinguished...
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Climate Change and India: Presentation to India-EU
Round Table
Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.DDistinguished Fellow
The Energy & Resources Institute19 September 2007
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I. What is anthropogenic climate change? Suite of gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc,) emitted
from various economic activities: Fossil fuel use, wet paddy cultivation, cattle raising, fertilizer use, etc.
Growing (but not mature) forests absorb (“sequester”) CO2, the major GHG
Increasing concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere have same effect as a greenhouse, hence “Greenhouse gases” (GHGs). The resulting increase in temperature may impact many climate parameters
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Country CO2 (tons) per capita
Energy (kgoe) per $ GDP (PPP in yr 2000)
India 1.2 5.5
China 3.2 4.4
France 6.2 5.9
Germany 9.8 6.2
Japan 9.6 6.4
UK 9.4 7.3
USA 19.9 5.2
Source: The World Bank. World average of per capita CO2 is 4.3 tons
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Across all scenarios, average warming is 0.2°C per decade
Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for next two decades
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The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992
The UNFCCC set forth certain principles for addressing climate change by a global effort, in particular, that of “common but differentiated responsibilities” of countries; that development is the foremost concern of developing countries, etc.
It also gave a “soft target” for industrialized countries (Annex I Parties) to return to 1990 levels of GHG emissions by 2000
All major countries, inc. US, EU, India, China, have ratified the Convention
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Kyoto Protocol, 1997:
Legally binding Protocol setting out: Targets for GHG reductions by individual
industrialized countries during “first commitment period”, 2008-2012, totaling 5.2% below their aggregate 1990 emissions; actual percentages vary by Party
3 “cooperative implementation mechanisms” setting up a global market in carbon credits: Clean Development Mechanism, applicable to developing countries, operational since 2000
US, Australia have not ratified; EU, China, India, Brazil are Parties (Total 161 Parties)
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II. Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation, and Adaptation Difference between natural climate variability
and anthropogenic climate change Summary of IPCC 4th Assessment Report on
Impacts Monitored changes in India’s key climate
parameters India’s energy policies and their GHG effect India’s response to natural variability Suggested way forward
Likely Impacts of Climate Change
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Difference betweennatural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change
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Variation of all-India surface air temperatures
Trends in annual mean, maximum and minimum temperatures anddiurnal temperature range during the 20th century.
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All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2003)
Source: IITM homogeneous monthly rainfall data base
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Current knowledge about future impacts: ASIA
Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.
Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s.
Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega-delta regions in South, East and Southeast Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some mega-deltas flooding from the rivers.
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Climate change is projected to impinge on sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development.
It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while it could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries.
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.
Current knowledge about future impacts: ASIA
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Current knowledge about responding to climate change Some adaptation is occurring now, to observed and
projected future climate change, but on a very limited basis.
Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions.
A wide array of adaptation options is available, but more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits and costs, but these are not fully understood.
Vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by the presence of other stresses, esp. poverty
Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway.
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Current knowledge about responding to climate change
Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase
While there has been significant improvement in scientific understanding of climate change in the past 20 years, there remains considerable uncertainty about the nature, timing, spatial distribution, and severity of particular impacts. In particular, none of the global climate models can be validated with respect to changes in rainfall over the Indian land-mass
Systematic observation and research needs
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III. Myths about India and Climate Change
Myth 1: India is an energy profligate Myth 2: India does not take climate impacts
seriously Myth 3: India’s development path is
unsustainable Myth 4: Abatement of GHG emissions is low-
cost
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Response to Myth 1: India’s current energy policies and their outcomes (partial list):
Improving energy efficiency Promoting hydro and renewable energy Power sector reforms Promotion of clean coal technologies Energy and infrastructure development Coal washing Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for
transport Environmental quality management (EIA appraisal
for significant development projects)
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India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios simulated by MARKAL (2001-2036)
Baseline: Base year 2001GDP growth rate 8%
Official demographic projectionsIPCC emissions factors
8% social discount rate Scenarios: S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation S2: Electricity for all by 2012
decentralized renewable optionsefficient cook stoves
S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport Greater use of CNG in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles
S4: S1+S2+S3 S5: Baseline with average annual GDP growth rate 6.7%
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CO2 emissions
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
MM
T
BASELINE S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
Source: TERI, 2006
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India’s actual carbon intensity performance
Compounded Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) of Indian GHG emissions during 1985 to 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1985 1990 1994 2000 2005
CA
GR
(%
)
CAGR (CO2)
CAGR (CH4)
CAGR (N2O)
Source: MoEF, 2007
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Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind India’s Sustainable Development
Energy intensity of GDP (kgoe/$ 2000 PPP) based on IEA data
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.23
0.25
0.27
0.29
0.311971
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
TPES (kgoe)/G
DP ($2000 P
PP)
Source: Plg. Comm. 2006
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Indian industry and energy efficiency
Major energy using sectors – steel cement, aluminum, etc. have become more energy efficient over the past 20 years
The following graphs depict changes in average energy intensities; incremental changes are much sharper.
The newer plants are among the most energy efficient globally
23Source: BEE, 2007
24Source: BEE, 2007
25Source: BEE, 2007
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Response to Myth 2: India’s actions on climate variability: The most effective response strategy for
anthropogenic climate change is poverty alleviation
Specific areas of concern include:- Agriculture- Water resources- Health and sanitation- Coastal Zones- Forests- Extreme weather events
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7 Major Components of Adaptation
Crop improvement & research (22) Drought proofing & flood control (19) Health improvement and prevention of disease (19) Risk financing (6) Disaster management (6) Forest conservation (12) Poverty alleviation and livelihood preservation (30)
(Figures in brackets indicate number of Schemes identified under each category)
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Percentage of Adaptation Expenditure to Total Fiscal Expenditure and GDP
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Year
Valu
e of
Exp
endi
ture
Expenditure on adaptation as% of total Govt. expenditure
Expenditure on adaptation as% of GDP
Source: MoEF, 2007
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Poverty Alleiviation and Livelihood preservation
59.34%
Forestry0.97%
Disaster Management0.38%
Risk Financing1.63%
Health 13.77%
Drought Proofing15.97%
Crop Improvement & Research
7.93%
Crop Improvement& Research
Drought Proofing
Health
Risk Financing
DisasterManagement
Forestry
Poverty Alleiviationand Livelihoodpreservation
Relative expenditures on major Adaptation schemes by thematic area
Source: MoEF, 2007
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IV. Response to Myth 3: Sustainability of Production and Consumption Patterns
Relevance Select Indicators:
- Energy inputs per unit of output energy delivered through food
- Waste generation and recycling
- Energy & emissions per unit of passenger transportation movement
Energy inputs per unit of output energy delivered through food
The energy inputs and resultant emissions in the cycle of growing the food, transporting, processing, packaging and preserving it till it reaches the table vary significantly between India, China, and developed countries. This reflects not poverty, but lifestyle choices.
32Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)
CO2 emission from food sector--from Field (production) to Table (processed food)-excluding cooking
0.1 0.1
1.7 1.8 1.9 2.02.2
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
India China UnitedKingdom
Germany Netherlands Australia United States
ton
CO
2/m
kca
l of
food
ene
rgy
Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Waste generation and recycling
Consumption patterns also have a direct impact on the wastes that a society generates. In developed societies not only is there higher waste generation but also relatively lower recycling. Can we move to a lifestyle that entails lower packaging and higher recycling and hence lower usage of plastics, glass and paper? What may it imply for GHG emissions?
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30
47.353
70
0
20
40
60
80
US Germany Japan India
48
10
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
USA UK Germany India
Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use)
GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)
Municipal solid waste
Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries
Energy & emissions per unit of transportation movement
Sustainable mobility: shift from personalized modes of transportation to public modes of transportation, greater reliance on clean fuels and cleaner technologies, a shift towards IT based societies have major implications for GHG emissions.
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16
118
193
0
50
100
150
200
250
India EU (15 countries) USA
Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport
(gm/passenger-km)
Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources
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Response to Myth 4: MARKAL model estimates of costs of GHG abatement Cumulative incremental investment requirements
-2.5% -3.9% -6.0% -7.9% -9.7%
153341
717
1394
2530
-600
0
600
1200
1800
2400
3000
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Year
Cum
ula
tive increm
enta
l in
vestm
ent requirem
ents
(B
illion U
S$)
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Change in c
um
ula
tive C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns from
baseline (
%)
SMEs Pow er Renew able Biodiesel
Res & Com Emissions Red Total
The total incremental cost for reduction of GHG in India by 9.7% from baseline in 2036 is $ 2.53 Trillion!
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Cumulative incremental investment requirements and GDP of different countries in 2004
Cumulative incremental investment requirements:Comparison with 2004 GDP levels
GDP at 2000 prices
5811415 1591
19031953
4932
10704
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
GD
P (B
illio
n U
S$)
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Change in discounted energy system cost (2001-36)…
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Redcution of CO2 emissions from baseline
Change in d
iscounte
d s
yste
m c
ost
Reduction of GHG emissions by 9.7% from baseline by 2036 would involve economic loss of $ 180 Billion
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India’s Broad Approach to International negotiations of a global climate change regime
India is not a significant contributor to climate change in the past, at present, or likely to be in the near future, as revealed by actual empirical data, and modeling results on future carbon intensities
However, India is among the worst sufferers of climate change caused by industrialized countries!
India has taken a number of policies and measures to address both mitigation and adaptation and is preparing a national action plan on climate change
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India’s broad approach…
India can only consider international commitments to control GHG emissions on the basis of global convergence to equal per capita rights, otherwise our poverty alleviation efforts will be severely affected, and the world will be permanently divided into “the rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate”!
Technology and financial transfers for addressing climate change, both GHG abatement and adaptation to impacts must be ensured under any future international climate change regime.
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