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WELCOME

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON FIELD CROPS

NAGARJUN,P.Sr M.Sc.(Agri.)

PALM-3007

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Sequence of presentation

Introduction: Global warming and

Climate changeImpact of climate change on field crops Strategies for mitigationConclusionFuture line of work

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INTRODUCTION

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Global warmingGlobal warming is the increase in the

earth’s average surface temperature due to effect of green house gases.

Fig.1

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Fig.2: Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for the past 140 years

Source. IPCC 2007

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Table 1. Abundance and lifetime of greenhouse gases in the

atmosphere

ppbV : Parts per billion volume Source: IPCC 2007

Fig. 3: Share of global GHG emissions by sector

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Fig. 4: Share of global GHG emissions by Agriculture

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Global warming

Warm oceanDecreased co2

solubility in water

O3 Photochemical reaction

N2OBiomass

Burning& N- fertilizers

Melting glacier & polar caps

Decreased reflective surface

Rising sea level

Flooding of coastal regions

CH4

Cattle &Termites

Garbage & SwampyRice fields

CO2

Deforestation Fossil fuel Combustion

Aerosolpropellants

Refrigerants

CFC

CFC

Fig.5

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Climate change

“Climate change refers to a statistically significant Variation either in the mean state of the climate or its variability, persisting for an extended period”

“Climate change refers to general shifts in climate, including temperature, precipitation, winds, and other Factors”

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Fig. 6

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Fig. 7: Future Climate is Likely to be Warmer

• Although there is considerable uncertainty about future, all climate models indicate a rising trend in temperature. By 2100 a rise of 1.8 to 4oC is expected.

Higher values cannot be ruled out.

Source: IPCC, 2007

Fig.8:Projected warming in 21st century

• Source: IPCC, 2007 14

15Krishna et al., 2009

Fig. 9: Expected future change in monsoon rainfall and annual surface temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s

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Table 2: Climate Change Scenarios for South Asia

CO2 levels: 393 ppm by 2020; 543 ppm by 2050 and 789 ppm by 2080

Source: IPCC, 2007DJF: December, January, FebruaryJJA: June, July, August

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150

200

250

300

2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17

MIL

LIO

N TO

NNES

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

MIL

LIO

N

Production Requirement Population

Fig.10:Projected Requirement of Food grains

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Fig.11: Impact of Climate Change on Food Production

Time

Prod

uctio

n

Demand

Business asusual

Supply

Demand

19Time

Prod

uctio

n

Demand

Business asusual

With climatechange

Fig.12: Impact of Climate Change on Food Production

20Time

Prod

uctio

n

Demand

Business asusualWith climatechangeWithadaptation

Fig.13: Impact of Climate Change on Food Production

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Climate change impact on agriculture

Fig.14

22Source : Naveen Kalra, IARI, New Delhi

Fig.15 : Impact of climate change on agriculture

23IARI, New Delhi

MODELS USED TO PREDICT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE

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• IMPACT ON FIELD CROPS

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FIELD CROPS

26IARI, New Delhi

An increase of 2 - 4oC is predicted to result in a reduction in yieldsEastern regions more effected due to increase in temperature and decreased radiation, resulting in lower grains and shorter grain filling durations

Additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was nullified by an increase of temperature

Rice production

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Fig. 16: Climate induced percentage change in yield: Irrigated Rice

Source: IPCC, 2008

Fig. 17: Climate induced percentage change in yield: Rainfed Rice

Source: IPCC, 2008 28

Effect of rise in temperature and CO2 concentration

Interaction of increase in temperature by 1-20 C along with increase in CO2 level by 350-450 ppm

This resulted in reduction of rice yields in efficient cropping zones and coastal zones (0.75t/ha and 0.06t/ha)

Sinha and Swaminathan, 1991

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Temperature change

Crop duration (days)

Grain yield (kg/ha)

Maximum LAI

+ 2.00 C -3.3 -8.4 -3.9

+ 1.50 C -2.6 -8.2 -3.9

+ 1.00 C -2.0 -4.9 -2.4

+ 0.50 C -1.3 -3.2 -1.1

Normal

- 0.50 C 0 +0.3 +0.2

- 1.00 C +1.3 +2.7 +0.5

- 1.50 C +2.0 +4.6 +1.1

- 2.00 C +13.1 +21.7 +13.6

Table 3 : Rice crop response (%) to change in temperature

Source: Bharadwaj, 2008

31Mathuda and Chakravarthy, 2000Ludhiana

Table 4 : Rice crop response to variations in temperature

32IARI, New Delhi Saseendran et al ., 2000

Fig. 18: Sensitivity of rice yield to atmospheric temperature changes between -6 0C and +6 0C as simulated by the CERES- Rice model

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Table 5: Effect of increasing minimum temperature on rice yield when harvested in the month of November

Dhaliwal and Bedi (2002)

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RESPONSE OF RICE PLANT TO ELEVATED CO2

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Table 6:Wheat crop response to variation in temperature

TempChange(0C)

Crop Duration(days)

MaximumLAI

Grains per ear

Grain yield (q/ha.)

Straw yield (t/ha)

+2.0 -7.7 -23.9 +4.1 -12.2 -21.6

+1.5 -5.6 -17.6 +3.0 -7.2 -17.7

+1.0 -3.5 -12.1 -0.3 -4.9 -11.5

+0.5 -0.7 -6.8 +0.2 -0.2 -6.0

Normal 143 3.8 24.12 50.43 8.83

-0.5 +3.5 +16.6 -1.0 +5.9 +0.9

-1.0 +6.3 +23.4 -1.7 +9.4 +5.2

-1.5 +7.7 +26.3 -0.4 +7.0 +20.5

-2.0 +11.2 +37.8 -1.7 +6.7 +27.1

% Deviation in yield and yield attributes

Mavi et al., 2009LAI: Leaf area index

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Fig.19: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Wheat Yields in North India

350

450

550

650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, C

CO

2,pp

m

20%

10% 0%-10% -20% -30%

-40%

WHEAT

350

450

550

650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, C

CO

2,pp

m

20%

10% 0%-10% -20% -30%

-40%

WHEAT

Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002

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Fig.20:Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Wheat Yields in

North India

350

450

550

650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, C

CO

2,pp

m

20%

10% 0%-10% -20% -30%

-40%

WHEAT

350

450

550

650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, C

CO

2,pp

m

20%

10% 0%-10% -20% -30%

-40%

WHEAT

2020

2050

2080

Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002

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Fig.21:Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a pessimistic technology scenario

Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002

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Fig.22:Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

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45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070Year

Prod

uctio

n , M

tons

Source: Aggarwal et al., 2002

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Fig.23: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Rainfed Wheat Yields in

Central India

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.02010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

Cha

nge

in g

rain

yie

ld, %

MinimumMaximum

Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009

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Fig 24: Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Irrigated Maize Yields in

North India

Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009

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Table 7: Influence of varying levels of CO2 concentration on growth and

yield of soybean.

Allen et al., 2009

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Fig.25: Effect of increase in surface temperature on

soybean grain yield as simulated by the APSIM model.

Mohanty et al.,2012

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Fig.26:Effect of CO2 and temperature on simulated yield of irrigated and rainfed

mustard

Mohanty et al.,2012

Table 8:Climate Change and Crop ProductivityTemperature Effects on Crop Yield – Several

Major CropsCrop T opt

°cT max °c

Yield at T opt t/ha

Yield at 28° t/ha

Yield at 32°c t/ha

% decrease ( 28 to 32°C )

Rice 25 36 7.55 6.31 2.93 54

Soya bean 28 39 3.41 3.41 3.06 10

Dry bean 22 32 2.87 1.39 0.00 100

Peanut 25 40 3.38 3.22 2.58 20

Grain sorghum

26 35 12.24 11.75 6.95 41

G.G.S N Rao. 2008

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Table 9: Projected water requirement by 2020

G.G.S N Rao. 2008mm: millimeter

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Table 10: Change in crop duration to increase in temperature.

G.G.S N Rao. 2008

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Table 11:Impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture in India

Crops Per cent loss of normal yield

Sorghum 43.03

Maize 14.09

Tur 28.23

Groundnut 34.09

Wheat 48.68

Onion 29.56

Cotton 59.96

Asha latha et al.,2012

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Table 12 : Climate change impact on productivity of wheat, rice ,maize and ground nut crops in Punjab .

% Reduction in yield to increase in temperature

Hundal et al., 2012

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Effect of climate change on agriculture

Groundnut Due to climate change mid season droughts are increasing due to dry weather, suffering of plants from lack of water, depletion of under ground water supply.Sunflower

Due to changed rainfall situation, the sowings are not completed before the end of July rather rather continued even after July.Chickpea

Since the harvest of the kharif crop is extended up to last week of November, the rabi chickpea sowings are extended up to 2nd week of December.

Rajegowda (2012)

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Table 13: Impact of Climate Change on Food Supply

Source: Aggarwal et al., 2009

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Influence of future climate change on agriculture pests

1. Increased number of annul generation2. Increased population growth rate3. Extension of geographical ranges4. Changed synchrony in pest-host relation5. Increased insect migration

Pooter et al., 2004

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Mitigation Strategies for CLIMATE CHANGE

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Adaptation strategies to climate change in agriculture

Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks Intensify food production systems Improve land and water management Enabling policies and regional cooperation Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacity

and mitigation potential

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Developing microbial consortium to minimize the

production of GHG from rice field Identifying microbes for methane oxidation Soil biodiversity conservation

Mitigation concepts

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Mitigating pool for GHG

• Reforestation • Trough Agronomic practices

- Carbon sequestration

- Conservation activities

- Cut down burning of crop residues

- Reduce tillage practices

- Improve land management

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CH4 - Wet rice cultivation can be managed by

- Breeding rice cultivars with low CH4 emission

- Alternate wetting and drying

- Use of sulfate containing fertilizers

- Change in pattern of fertilizer

- Use of methanotrophic bacteria

- Controlling soil PH

- Adoption SRI and aerobic method

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N2O from agriculture can be managed by

• Use of nitrification inhibitors

• Use of Sulphur coated urea and other slow release urea

• Placing fertilizer in anaerobic zone

• Precision nitrogen management

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Conclusion

Industrialized countries are more responsible for threat of climate change.

Rice yield decreased by about 0.75 t ha-1 in efficient cropping zones and 0.06 t ha-1 in coastal regions.

Reduction of yield of rainfed cotton (59.96%), wheat (48.68%), sorghum (43.03%), groundnut (34.09%) and maize (14.09%) respectively due to climate change.

By adapting mitigation strategies can minimize the negative impacts of climate change.

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Future line of work

Need greater research, policy and financial support for mitigating climate change.

Development of germplasm and agronomic management practices to over come climate change impact.

The future research strategies should focus on developing the technology or methods to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into atmosphere.

The detailed studies are needed to quantify the effects and interactions of CO2 and temperature on field crops.

61THANK YOU