climate change and its impacts on the pacific northwest university of washington program on climate...
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Climate change and Its Impactson the Pacific Northwest
University of WashingtonProgram on Climate Change
Part I
Global Climate Change
Earth’s Energy Balance and Greenhouse Gases
Source: NASA, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment
Greenhouse gases: H2O, O3, CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons
Sources of US anthropogenic GHGs
Source: U.S. EPA 2005
buildings (residential)
6%buildings (commercial)
7%
agriculture7%
industry19%
electric generation
34%
transportation27%
by gas by sector
other CO2
4%
CO2 from
fossil fuels81%
CH4
8%
N2O
5%
halocarbons2%
How cars generate CO2
Source: Murray ca. 2005
CO2 and temperature, 420,000 BP to present
Source: various, assembled by Davies 2000
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
050
,00
0
10
0,0
00
15
0,0
00
20
0,0
00
25
0,0
00
30
0,0
00
35
0,0
00
40
0,0
00
Te
mp
era
ture
diffe
ren
tial, ºC
180
220
260
300
340
380
CO
2 c
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
, pp
mv
CO
2 con
cent
ratio
n, p
pm
Temperature difference from todayCO2 concentration
Temperature D
ifference °C
Years BP
CO2 1958 to present
Future climate change
Source: IPCC 2001
global economic development
regional economic stratification
global environmental consciousness
regional environmental consciousness and economies
1992 projection
Risks of future climate change
Source: IPCC 2001
Possible threats:
• Ecosystem change
• Flooding of coastal communities
• Spread of diseases
• Increase of extreme weather events
Part II
Pacific Northwest Impacts
Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100
Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005
Year
Deg
rees
F
Retreat of the South Cascades glacier
1928
2000Source: USGS ca. 2005
Effect on modeled Snake River streamflow
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Flo
w (
cfs
)
base
comp 2020
comp 2040
Source: Mote ca. 2005
increased winter flows
an earlier peak
decreased spring/summer flows
Trends in actual streamflows,
1948-2002
March
JuneSource: Stewart, Cayan & Dettinger 2004
Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry
Source: Mote ca. 2005
days
of o
pera
tion
per y
ear
current climate 2040’s
(two different models)2020’s
(two different models)
24 cm snow threshold
50 cm
80 cm
Effects on salmonid life-cycle
Source: Mote ca. 2005
winter flooding
low summer streamflow; higher temp.
changing estuary conditions (prey,
predators, competitors)
possible effects
still unknown
Vegetation carbon in 2070-2100
Source: Nielson ca. 2005
Other effects
Likely:• less frequent extreme cold events• coastal erosion and landslides
Possible:• increased precipitation intensity• Changes in El Niño frequency, intensity
or local effects• Changes in fogginess, wind storms
Source: Mote ca. 2005
Part III
Taking Action
Why a Northwesterner needs to think differently
Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004
buildings (residential)
6%buildings (commercial)
7%
agriculture7%
industry19%
electric generation
34%
transportation27%
transportation46%
electric generation
15%
industry25%
agriculture5%
buildings9%
U.S. GHGs Washington GHGs
Two venues for action
Source: Hammerschlag ca. 2005
• Vote
• Financially support concerned organizations- Climate Solutions- Northwest Energy Coalition
• Volunteer for concerned organizations- Door-to-door education- Legislative lobbying
POLICY REFORM
• Drive less- Carpool or use transit- Walk or bicycle- Combine errands- Telecommute
• Drive a fuel-efficient car
• Reduce home energy use- CFLs- Energy Star appliances- Heat room-by-room- Minimize summer A/C
• Purchase GHG offsets
PERSONAL GHG CUTS
The End.
University of WashingtonProgram on Climate Change
annexes
1. Keeping Pacific Northwest electricity low-GHG2. CH4 1000 to Present
Keeping Pacific Northwest electricity low-GHG
Source: Lazarus, Hippel & Bernow 2002
CH4 1000 to present
Source: Mote ca. 2005