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Disasters: The New Normal?5th Annual Conference of the NJ Voluntary
Organizations Active in Disasters
Breakout session
Climate Change and
NJ Extreme Weather
Dr. David A. Robinson
Distinguished Professor,
Department of Geography
& New Jersey State Climatologist
Rutgers University
April 2, 2019
Little Falls, NJ
11 August 2018
(Miguel Galo, Special to NorthJersey.com)
NJclimate.org
Office of the
NJ State
Climatologist
Helping decision
makers
Locals trusting
locals
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Overview1. Setting the scene
2. NJ Weather & climate extremes
3. Changing climate and why
4. What lies ahead
5. Is it too late to do anything about this?
6. Keeping an eye out for extremes
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The Global Risks Perception Survey
(GRPS), discussed in the chapter
“Fractures, Fears and Failures”, is
the World Economic Forum’s source
of original data harnessing the
expertise of the Forum’s extensive
network of business, government,
civil society and thought leaders.
The survey was conducted from 28
August to 1 November 2017 among
the World Economic Forum’s
multistakeholder communities,
members of the Institute of Risk
Management and the professional
networks of our Advisory Board
Members.
Global
Risks
Landscape
World
Economic
Forum
http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2018/global-risks-landscape-2018/#landscape///
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The Earth's Complex Climate System
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NJ’s Weather/Climate: A Year-Round Squeeze Play
http://www.richhoffmanclass.com/chapter8.htm
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Overview1. Setting the scene
2. NJ Weather & climate extremes
3. Changing climate and why
4. What lies ahead
5. Is it too late to do anything about this?
6. Keeping an eye out for extremes
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Jersey Extremes
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Nor'easter: March 1962
Harvey Cedars
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1960s Drought
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Floyd:
September 1999
Bound Brook
New Brunswick
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Manville
Irene
August 2011
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Hoboken
Sandy 2012
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Mantoloking
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Holgate
Photo: Will Randall-Goodwin
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Overview1. Setting the scene
2. NJ Weather & climate extremes
3. Changing climate and why
4. What lies ahead
5. Is it too late to do anything about this?
6. Keeping an eye out for extremes
NJclimate.org
Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States:
Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, 2018
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Global surface air temperatures over ocean and land: 1880-2018
• Evidence of current global warming
– Global temperature increasing at 0.13 °C per decade
– Ocean temperatures increasing to depths of 9800 feet
– Sea level rise
– Temperatures in Arctic increasing at twice global rate
https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/139/graphic-global-warming-from-1880-to-2018
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New Jersey annual temperature: 1895-2018
data source: National Centers for Environmental Information
Long-term upward trend
of 2.2°F per 100 years
6 of the 7 warmest
years have occurred
since 2006
2012 was the warmest
year on record
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U.S.
precipitation
change
Map: 1991-2012
compared to
1901-1960
Graphs: Decades
Compared to
1901-1960
National Assessment, 2014
20
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New Jersey annual precipitation: 1895-2018
data source: National Centers for Environmental Information
2018: wettest on record
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1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
Jan 5 4 5 1 1 3 2 2 3 4 Jan
Feb 3 4 4 1 2 3 5 4 1 2 Feb
Mar 3 4 1 3 5 5 2 5 2 1 4 Mar
Apr 1 3 4 2 4 2 4 5 2 5 1 Apr
May 3 1 5 4 2 2 2 5 1 4 May
Jun 1 2 3 3 4 5 2 5 3 1 Jun
Jul 1 2 2 5 1 2 1 4 1 5 5 Jul
Aug 2 5 1 4 3 5 4 3 1 2 Aug
Sep 1 3 2 5 1 5 4 4 2 5 3 Sep
Oct 2 3 5 1 4 5 3 5 4 1 2 Oct
Nov 1 2 4 2 4 5 2 3 4 1 Nov
Dec 4 3 2 5 1 3 2 5 4 1 Dec
Observation: The extreme warmest months tend to be after 1990. The extreme coldest months tend to be before 1930.
1 driest 1 wettest
2 2nd driest 2 2nd wettest
3 3rd driest 3 3rd wettest
4 4th driest 4 4th wettest
5 5th driest 5 5th wettest
Jan 4 4 2 4 3 2 1 1 5 3 Jan
Feb 1 4 3 2 5 5 4 2 1 3 Feb
Mar 3 2 2 5 5 4 3 4 1 1 Mar
Apr 3 5 4 5 3 1 4 1 2 2 Apr
May 1 4 5 2 2 3 5 1 4 3 May
Jun 1 2 4 5 2 2 3 5 1 4 Jun
Jul 1 5 3 2 4 3 4 2 5 1 Jul
Aug 4 5 2 3 2 1 4 3 5 1 Aug
Sep 4 5 2 3 2 1 5 4 1 3 Sep
Oct 2 5 2 3 4 4 5 1 3 5 1 Oct
Nov 1 3 4 4 5 1 2 3 5 2 Nov
Dec 5 4 5 1 3 2 4 2 1 2 Dec
Observation: There is no obvious trend in the distribution of extreme wettest and driest months.
Explanation
- Each month has two sets of 1-5, one set in shades of red for warmest/driest and one set in shades of blue for coldest/wettest.
- Ties are indicated by the same number appearing twice for the same month. Dr. David A. Robinson Jeffrey L. Hoffman, NJ State Geologist
- The period of record is January 1895 to December 2018. NJ State Climatologist New Jersey Geological & Water Survey
- Monthly rankings are based on State-wide averages of monthly temperature and precipitation. Rutgers University N.J. Dept. of Environmental Protection
- All data are from the web page of the New Jersey State Climatologist. http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/ [email protected]
- NOAA altered the way it estimates monthly statewisde precipitation and temperature. All years were reanalyzed using this procedure resulting in minor changes from previously reported http://www.njgeology.org/
values and rankings. For more information on NOAA's new nClimDiv approach visit https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/maps/us-climate-divisions.php. February 2019
2000-2009
2000-20091980-1989 1990-1999
Precipitation Legend
Precipitation - For each calendar month the 5 driest and 5 wettest years in New Jersey
1895 -1899 1900-1909 1910-1919 1970-1979
1930-1939 1940-1949
for more information:
1895 -1899
1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969
1900-1909 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-19991960-19691950-1959
1920-1929 1930-1939
1910-1919 1920-1929
2010-2018
2010-2018
New Jersey's Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Months
4th warmest
coldest
3rd coldest
4th coldest
warmest
2nd warmest
Temperature - For each calendar month the 5 warmest and 5 coldest years in New Jersey 5th warmest 5th coldest
3rd warmest
Temperature Legend
2nd coldest
https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim/NJ_monthly_extremes.pdf
NJ Extreme Temperature & Precipitation Months
NJclimate.org
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8518750
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Preponderance of evidence suggests climate
change is occurring and humans are responsible
for a significant portion of recent changes
1. Theory
2. Observations
3. Models
Why the change?
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• The Earth reflects radiation not absorbed by the atmosphere & surface (lost heat).
• Strong greenhouse gases delay the exit of absorbed radiation back to the space
(enhancing atmosphere & surface temperatures).
Greenhouse Effect
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Where the anthropogenically-generated heat is going
Nuccitelli et al., 2012
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Coupled
Climate
Model
Schematic
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Overview1. Setting the scene
2. NJ Weather & climate extremes
3. Changing climate and why
4. What lies ahead
5. Is it too late to do anything about this?
6. Keeping an eye out for extremes
NJclimate.org
But first:
Are we already seeing changes in
extremes as a result of the changing climate?
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Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013. Superstorm
Sandy: A series of unfortunate events? Oceanography 26(1):8–9,
http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.11.
Sandy: A unique recipe for disaster
Ingredients
1. Sandy
2. Wavy jet stream
3. Blocking high
4. Deep trough
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Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013.
Additional ingredients……adding insult to injury
a. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures
b. Landfall close to high tide
c. Astronomical high tide
d. Higher sea level than 50-100 years ago
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Repetitive Jersey Flooding
17 September 1999
16 April 2007
14 March 2010
28 August 2011
Manville
# 2 crest 21.0’ (nearby Blackwells Mills: 1921-present)
# 3 crest 19.2’
# 6 crest 16.2’ (1 May 2014 #7 crest 15.9’)
# 1 crest 21.2’
all photos by D. Robinson34
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Rank Year Summer
Avg. Temp.
1 2010 75.7°
2 2016 74.9°
3 2005 74.8°
4 2011 74.6°
5 2018 74.3°
5 1999 74.3°
7 2012 74.2°
8 2002 74.0°
9 1949 73.9°
10 2006 73.6°
10 1988 73.6°
12 1955 73.5°
12 2013 73.5°
12 1973 73.5°
15 2008 73.4°
The 15 warmest summers (June–August) across New Jersey since 1895.
New Jersey
Summer Heat
11 of the 15 hottest
summers since 1895
have occurred in the
last 20 years.
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A shift in the distribution of summer temperatures
in the Northern Hemisphere
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY EARTH INSTITUTE VIA MAKIKO SATO AND JAMES HANSEN
THE NEW YORK TIMES - NYTIMES.COM
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Now to the future
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Rising temperatures
Steady or increasing precipitation
Increasing variability and extremes
- storms, flood, drought, heat…….
Rising sea level
New Jersey's future climate
NJclimate.org
Changing Annual
and Seasonal
Temperatures
2041-2070
minus
1971-2000
North American Regional
Climate Change Assessment
Program
Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech.
Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013
39
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Climate Science Special Report: Our globally changing
climate. Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I, 2017
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Changing Annual
and Seasonal
Precipitation
2041-2070
minus
1971-2000
Kunkel et al. NOAA Tech.
Report NESDIS 142-9, 2013
North American Regional
Climate Change Assessment
Program
41
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Seaside Heights
NJclimate.orghttps://njadapt.rutgers.edu/docman-lister/conference-materials/168-crfinal-october-2016/file
NJclimate.org
Overview1. Setting the scene
2. NJ Weather & climate extremes
3. Changing climate and why
4. What lies ahead
5. Is it too late to do anything about this?
6. Keeping an eye out for extremes
NJclimate.org
• Knowledge: Develop a better understanding of the
details of future climate change.
• Mitigation: Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases.
• Adaptation: Increase the resilience of society to climate
change.
• Activism/Leadership: Raise public awareness of the
challenges posed by climate change and the need to
mitigate and adapt. Participate…..vote.
Challenges Requiring Attention
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Overview1. Setting the scene
2. NJ Weather & climate extremes
3. Changing climate and why
4. What lies ahead
5. Is it too late to do anything about this?
6. Keeping an eye out for extremes
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Rutgers
New Jersey
Weather
Network
njweather.org
NJclimate.org
NJWxNet stations measure:Air temperature
Wind speed and direction
Dew point/Relative humidity
Precipitation
Barometric pressure
Solar radiation
Soil temperature
Soil moisture
Snow depth
Solar power
Cellular communications
Ability for expansion built into
station design
Pittstown:
Rutgers Snyder Research and Extension Farm
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Station-
specific
web pages
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Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and
Snow Network (CoCoRaHS)
Daily
observations by
trained volunteers
of all ages
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CoCoRaHS maps demonstrate varying distribution patterns of NJ precipitation:
www.cocorahs.org
7AM 31 July– 7AM 1 Aug 2016 7AM 13 May – 7AM 14 May 2017
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Summing up:
Climate continues changing, locally and globally.
This includes changes in extremes.
Change will continue and likely accelerate in the
foreseeable future. Expect more extremes.
Impacts will expand, becoming increasingly noteworthy.
While ongoing change is certain, time remains for
mitigative and adaptive actions to address and
attenuate conditions.
