climate change and related issues hist. s-1967 presentation by john macdougall 8/1/2014

CLIMATE CHANGE AND RELATED ISSUES

Hist. S-1967Presentation by John MacDougall

8/1/2014

CLIMATE CHANGE IS…

…US??


EXTENT OF THE PROBLEM. For every one of the past 37 years, world average temperatures have exceeded the 20th century average. Greenhouse gases emissions keep growing: CO2 levels are now 400 parts per million (PPM), while almost all experts say that to stabilize climate, C02 can’t exceed 350 PPM. (“ UN blames…” *; cf. Hunt text p. 439)*citations for many books and articles cited here can be found in the handout that goes with this lecture


We ALREADY live on an irreversibly-changed planet (McKibben, Eaarth, ch. 1). Climate changes include more frequent heatwaves, and severe storms. Impacts of this include famines, desertification, forest fires, species loss, floods, melting polar icecaps, sea-level rise, etc. According to World Meteorological Org., 370,000 people died worldwide of extreme weather in 2000-2010 (20% more than previous decade).


Wars and conflicts are aggravated by climate change’s effects, e.g. in Syria, a contributing cause of the current civil war is, in 2006-10 a drought destroyed 60% of the farms and 80% of the livestock, which caused a million people to flee to the cities (which already had a million refugees from Iraq—Gore 2014).Poor countries and regions are often most at risk, e.g. Bangladesh from sea-level rise.


SOME SPECIFIC ISSUESSources of greenhouse gases in US. Electricity CO2—34%, Transportation CO2—30%, Industrial CO2—11%, Non-CO2—17% (Union of Concerned Scientists “Rebuilding a Revitalized Clean Energy Economy”).


Note about transportation: CO2 per passenger-mile for long trips is 4 times more by 1-person Prius hybrid car, or by plane, than by inter-city bus—and 7 times more if by a 1-person average car (Seth Shulman, Cooler, Smarter [Island Press, 2012]).


Note about food: compared with in 1940, food-growing, transporting, storing etc. today uses 23 times as much fossil-fuel energy per calorie eaten (Michael Pollan “Farmer in chief”, NY Times magazine, 9 Oct. 2008). Industrial agriculture—with monoculture and intensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides—leads to the loss of 50-80% of the carbon previously stored in the soil (“Agriculture: the surprising leading contributor…”)

CLIMATE AND RELATED ISSUES

The military—a huge polluter. The world’s militaries account for about 10-30% of all the environmental degradation in the world (Sanders, p.159). As of 2007, the average US military uniformed person consumed 12 times the amount of oil consumed by the average US civilian—for example through use of jet fuel. If we add in the US military’s contribution, the US’s share of world greenhouse gas emissions is increased from 25 to 30% (Sanders pp. 107,68)

B-52 BOMBER—emits equivalent of 100 tons of CO2/hour


ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & SOCIAL CAUSES OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS HYPOTHESIS: the main ways human activities contribute to climate change are:

A) for industrial countries: especially through multinational corporations’ (MNCs’) and governments’ push to keep expanding production, together with cultures that promote consumerism.


B) For developing countries: MNCs and governments as in industrial countries; PLUS (i) elites’ drive to catch up with industrial countries, (ii) MNCs’ search for cheap labor/materials and for new markets


POLITICS. As examples of forces maintaining “business as usual”:• The Koch brothers made most of their billions

from exploiting hydrocarbons. They and other fossil fuel companies spend millions on lobbying and elections.

• The 5 biggest oil companies made over $1 trillion in profits since 2000 (McKibben 2012*)


Related issues: World population doubled between 1960 & 1999. To slow down and reverse population growth, it is essential to: a) educate girls, b) empower women, socially & politically, c) increase child-survival rates, d) provide birth control to women (Gore 2009, p.229)


“Extreme” fossil-fuel energy.” Exploitation of this has increased in recent years, e.g. in the US, getting oil from tar sands. Another example is getting oil and natural gas from fracking (hydraulic fracturing, or forcing water and chemicals into rock formations to extract oil and natural gas).


But while extreme energy production has grown, output of conventional fossil-fuel energy has declined. Also there are serious environmental and public-health side-effects; e.g. the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010; and frequently, poisoning of drinking water because of fracking, Also high levels of extreme-energy output depend on favorable demand and prices, and the availability of required technology (Klare 2014)


Peak oil and natural gas? Based on points like these, Klare and others argue that the concept of peak oil/natural gas is valid. I.e. there will be a time quite soon when remaining reserves of these fossil fuels will be so inaccessible and costly (in economic and environmental terms) that even “extreme” reserves won’t be exploited, and thus world fossil-fuel output will begin an inevitable long-term downward trend.


Subsidies for fossil fuels. Worldwide, they increased by nearly 30% in 2010-11, to $523 billion in 2011. (Klare 2012). Worldwide subsidies for carbon-based energy are now 25 times subsidies for renewables (Gore 2014)

Note--fossil-fuel subsidies are popular in developing countries, since they keep down the cost of cooking fuel, transportation etc.


The role of consumerism.Over the long term. The “American

dream” of owning cars, fridges etc. was promoted in the US in the 1950s, and then spread to the rest of the world—see lecture and video on the US in the 19502-1960s; Hunt text ch. 5 and 8; and see Saturday Evening Post magazine cover from 1959 in Hunt reader p. 183


Since about 1990. In this period there have been important changes in the production and purchase of consumer goods. These include: faster fashion cycles, consumer electronics have spread all over the world, world trade has grown, and global communication has speeded up thanks to the internet, etc. All this led to the amount of waste for many products increasing faster. E.g. in 1999 only about 19 million cellphones in the world were ready to be disposed of; in 2007 this number was 140 million. (Schor p. 38)

All of this creates big carbon and other ecological footprints.


HOW TO ADDRESS THE CLIMATE CRISIS?CAN THERE BE SOLUTIONS? Many people see runaway climate change as nearly inevitable. For instance, McKibben (2012) cites scientists who say the world’s temperature can’t grow more than an additional 2 degrees celsius, and it has already grown by 0.8 degrees. To avoid a 2-degree rise, McKibben and others urge that—in view of the added greenhouse gases emitted by new fossil-fuel exploitation--80% of all the remaining coal, oil and natural gas be left in the ground.


However, if we’re to look for solutions, they are in 3 areas…1.PUBLIC POLICY At world conferences since 2009, governments officially only agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—with no targets, time-frames or binding commitments regarding greenhouse gas emissions. Also developed countries pledged to raise $100 billion/year to help poor countries address climate change


ADAPTATION to climate change has started—e.g. restrictions on rebuilding next to vulnerable shores in New York after Hurricane Sandy. Sometimes the same measures that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also help with adaptation. Adaptation measures should be flexible, and take advantage of nature’s adaptation processes—e.g. expanding wetlands to better absorb water runoff from severe storms.


Public policy, continuedEnergy efficiency—this can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions at low cost. Between 1978 and 2008, per capita electricity use stayed THE SAME in California but increased 60% in the rest of the US. During this period per capita output doubled in both places. Why the difference? Calif. introduced especially strict incentives to utilities and efficiency standards for buildings and appliances (Gore p. 249)


Sustainable cities—e.g. in Bogota, Colombia. Mayor Penalosa focused on children and the elderly. (Brown p.193) He transformed the quality of life; among other things:• 1200 parks were created or renovated• A very successful bus rapid transit was established• Hundreds of kilometers of bike paths and pedestrian

streets were built• Rush hour traffic was cut by 40%• Local citizens were involved in improving their

neighborhoods.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND RELATED ISSUES2.ACTION BY NON-GOVERNMENTAL GROUPS—perhaps by your school, church, mosque, workplace, etc.?Often holistic solutions, using simple technology and indigenous organizations work best—e.g. farmers in the W. African Sahel expanded traditional shallow pits at the edges of fields and added more manure than usual in the dry season. This led to faster tree growth in the pits, and to greater crop yields, plus increased food security for local families (Hertsgaard 2009)

Worldwide, there are thousands of organizations doing this kind of work (Hawken)


Gender and social-inequality issues—these can be addressed by effective programs. An example is the zero-waste recycling/bio-gas program in Mumbai, which especially benefits low-caste women (Gokaldas)Transition Towns movement—this addresses climate change and peak oil in 43 countries, in creative, joyful, community-based ways.


Some current citizen actions in the US. In February 2013, about 40,000 demonstrated in Washington against the Keystone XL pipeline (which would bring tar sands oil from Canada to the US)….Students are pushing for colleges and universities (including Harvard) to get their endowments to divest from fossil fuels….Etc. etc.


Rethinking businesses’ responsibIlities. Do they have a basic responsibility to environmental sustainability and social justice, in addition to making profits? A company that says “yes” is Interface Flooring, which reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 83%, increased sales by two-thirds and doubled profits (Gore 2009 p. 128)


3.INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE’S ACTIONS AND BELIEFSNote: in recent years, many activists, scientists and other concerned people have said individual actions make relatively little difference, and radical changes in policies and beliefs are needed if we are to limit climate change.


Reducing individual emissions. Food--through eating locally-grown and/or organic food, eating less or no meat, and composting food waste. Transportation--walking, biking or using public transportation (e.g. walk up to the 7th floor of 51 Brattle St.—hooray!)… Etc., etc.


Note: making these individual-level changes may pose serious challenges to our broader identities and beliefs. E.g. if a high-school student takes a bus to school rather than driving, it may be very “un-cool” in the eyes of his/her peers.Millions are involved in organizations: e.g. activities of 350.org (See “Resources” section in handout)


Some radical challenges to our beliefs and values.

1) Major taxes on all forms of carbon, e.g. a fee and rebate (See Citizens Climate Lobby, in “Resources” section of handout). A carbon tax might increase US gasoline prices to European levels (say $10/gallon).

2) Calls for nearly all fossil fuels to stay in the ground (McKibben 2012 etc.).


Rethinking our measures of human wellbeing. E.g. an alternative to Gross Domestic Product is the Happy Planet Index (see “Resources” in handout). This is based on multiplying life satisfaction by life expectancy, and dividing it by ecological footprint. In 2012, among 151 countries Costa Rica ranked first, China 60th and the US 105th.


NOTE: helpful players, in my opinion, are: a)thousands of non-government organizations, worldwide and with very diverse agendas—e.g. those that gathered at the World People’s Congress in Bolivia in spring 2010. b) often, municipal, state/provincial and regional governments (but rarely national ones). E.g. in May 2013, Harvard, MIT and Cambridge city government signed a compact on climate change, with a framework for closer collaboration.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND RELATED ISSUESBus rapid transit in Ahmedabad, India


Bike Path, Sao Paulo, Brazil


Cycling in the Netherlands

HUBWAY BIKE SHARING—now in Boston, Cambridge and neighboring cities

CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE AT BRAYTON POINT MASS. POWER PLANT, 7/28/2013

climate change and related issues hist. s-1967 presentation by john macdougall 8/1/2014

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