Climate Change Economic Impacts in the Middle & Upper Snake River

Richard A. SlaughterDon Reading

Climate Impacts Group

University of WashingtonSupported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationOffice of Global Programs

Structure and Background

UPPER SNAKE MODEL

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Shaded and red markings indicate aspects not modeled.

Snake River Natural Flow nr Heise 1911 - 2006

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

19111914191719201923192619291932193519381941194419471950195319561959196219651968197119741977198019831986198919921995199820012004

1000 Acre Feet

Annual flow nr HeiseFive year movavg -1 SD 1911 - 2006 -1 SD 1971 - 2006 +1 SD 1911 - 2006 +1 SD 1971 - 2006

Total Water Withdrawals - withdrawals by use

Public supply ground

Industrial ground0.16%

Public supply surface0.01%

Industrial surface0.06%

Livestock0.15%

Domestic supply

Aquaculture12.28%

Irrigation86.39%

Water Demand (AF) - Ratio of withdrawals to consumption

County Base

Blaine 3.55

Camas 1.17

Cassia 1.66

Gooding 2.18

Jerome 5.52

Lincoln 3.32

Minidoka 2.10

Twin Falls 3.42

Bannock 6.43

Bingham 3.11

Bonneville 3.93

Butte 2.23

Clark 3.12

Fremont 2.56

Jefferson 6.02

Madison 4.54

Power 1.84

Average 3.32

Source: USGS, Estimate Water use in the United States in 2000; water consumption for all crops in model.

ESPA Acres

Alfalfa, irrigated22%

Alfalfa, dryland3%

Barley, irrigated15%

Barley, dryland5%

Potatoes14%

Sugarbeets6%

Wheat, irrigated23%

Wheat, dryland6%

Oats0%

Silage Corn

Corn

Beans2%

Potatoes and sugarbeets account for only 20% of acreage.

Net Revenue per AcreBase Period

(200) (100) - 100 200 300 400 500 600

Crop

$ Net per Acre

Dryland Wheat

Irrigated Wheat

Sugarbeets

Potatoes

Oats

Silage Corn

Corn

Beans

Barley

Alfalfa

Potatoes account for the largest share of net revenues

Simulation results

Assumptions

Variable Base Current Climate Additional CC Forecast, no CCForecast, current

Climate

Water at Heise

95 year average

1 SD reduction from 95 year average

CC 1 SD from 1971 - 2006 average

95 year average1 SD reduction from 95 year

average

Input pricesCurrent values

Commodity prices

Current values

Dairy cows Current stock

Water efficiency

No change

Water budget (for ET)

No change

Population No change

Current values

Current stock 10% increase per decade

Current values 10% increase per decade

5% public and industrial surface; 2.5% public ground, 0% industrial ground; 0% domestic; 2.5% irrigation improvement per decade

No changeIdaho Power Co. forecast (50% over 40

years; some counties decline)

No change

BaseCurrent Climate %

Additional Climate Change %

Reasonable Forecast,

no CC %

Forecast, Current Climate %

Acreage

Irrigated 2,167,655 (152,984) 7.1% (212,133) 9.8% 272,080 12.6% 99,333 4.6%

Non-irrigated 326,613 34,935 10.7% 52,130 16.0% (13,336) 4.1% 23,685 7.3%

Total 2,494,268 (118,049) 4.7% (160,003) 6.4% 258,744 10.4% 123,018 4.9%

Water allocation (KAF)

Irrigation, Lvstk 13,302 (1,950) 14.7% (2,230) 16.8% 1,674 12.6% (525) 3.9%

Municipal 106 (13) 12.5% (14) 12.8% 156 146.9% 124 116.5%

Aquaculture 1,887 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Domestic 43 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Industrial 33 (3) 8.0% (3) 8.9% 57 173.2% 50 152.7%

Total Withdrawals (KAF) (1,966) 12.8% (2,246) 14.6% 1,887 12.3% (351) 2.3%Current climate: 1971 - 2006 average

Acreage and water change from base

By Crop

2000 base, century average

climate

Current climate (1 SD from century

average)

CC 1 SD from

current climate

Forecast, no CC

Current climate, Forecast

Alfalfa $232,132 1.2% 1.8% 9.9% 8.6%

Barley $188,918 13.8% 18.4% 23.9% 5.6%

Beans $25,060 12.0% 16.6% 0.0% 12.0%

Corn $8,721 7.7% 10.7% 32.3% 22.1%Silage Corn $79,749 2.0% 2.8% 131.7% 126.4%

Oats $555 0.0% 0.0% 50.7% 50.7%

Potatoes $566,547 4.5% 6.3% 0.0% 4.5%

Sugarbeets $168,117 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4%

Irrigated Wheat $171,203 8.7% 12.2% 12.4% 20.0%

Dryland Wheat $13,594 3.2% 4.7% 19.1% 21.4%

Current climate: 1971 - 2006 average

Cumulative % Change Gross Revenue by Crop

County

2000 base, century average climate

Current climate (1 SD from century

average)

CC 1 SD from current climate

Forecast, no CC

Current climate, Forecast

Blaine 19,830 (55) (75) 22,257 22,189

Camas 511 33 49 308 342

Cassia 10,865 (387) (538) 8,315 7,892

Gooding 6,033 (109) (153) 5,373 5,226Jerome 8,621 (232) (323) 8,630 8,351

Lincoln 1,711 (75) (104) 1,865 1,776

Minidoka 8,403 (347) (479) 1,031 639

Twin Falls 40,972 (393) (545) 31,045 30,590

Bannock 44,537 (22) (30) 23,085 23,063

Bingham 18,300 (449) (627) 9,133 8,677

Bonneville 57,405 (235) (323) 47,527 47,253

Butte 5,021 (64) (89) (167) (243)Clark 668 (27) (38) (89) (117)Fremont 4,272 (125) (164) 3,099 2,951Jefferson 7,930 (363) (499) 5,258 4,840Madison 15,916 (284) (392) 12,068 11,751Power 3,654 (169) (237) 692 526Total 254,649 1.3% 1.8% 70.5% 69.0%Current climate: 1971 - 2006 average

Non-agricultural employment (crop weighted, 2050)

County Potato Gross

Revenue Non-ag Employ

Revenue % Chg.

Employ % Chg

Revenue % Chg.

Employ % Chg

Revenue % Chg.

Employ % Chg

Revenue % Chg.

Employ % Chg

Blaine 2,787 17,490 0.7% 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 8.1% 0.2% 9.6% 0.3%Camas 0 441 - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0%Cassia 61,812 11,089 8.7% 2.9% 11.7% 4.0% 2.5% 0.2% 5.9% 2.6%Gooding 18,074 5,904 2.0% 0.6% 3.1% 0.9% 6.3% 0.4% 9.0% 1.0%Jerome 29,470 8,069 7.3% 2.1% 10.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 6.5% 1.9%Lincoln 6,938 1,507 11.5% 2.1% 15.3% 2.8% 6.2% 0.3% 4.6% 1.7%Minidoka 51,006 9,356 4.4% 1.6% 6.2% 2.3% 3.2% 0.3% 7.9% 1.9%Twin Falls 33,844 38,257 4.0% 0.8% 5.6% 1.1% 3.7% 0.2% 8.1% 1.0%Bannock 6,766 41,900 1.4% 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 7.1% 0.3% 9.2% 0.5%Bingham 98,695 17,380 18.4% 10.2% 24.3% 13.5% 15.4% 2.2% 1.4% 7.8%Bonneville 44,120 52,375 6.5% 2.9% 9.0% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 6.9% 2.9%Butte 2,824 5,722 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.3% 10.1% 0.3%Clark 0 569 - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0%Fremont 45,205 3,869 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 9.4% 1.3% 10.1% 1.2%Jefferson 47,866 6,522 2.4% 0.9% 3.7% 1.3% 5.8% 0.5% 8.8% 1.5%Madison 51,929 14,406 1.1% 0.8% 2.0% 1.3% 7.5% 1.3% 9.4% 2.2%Power 57,489 4,481 5.6% 2.9% 7.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.2% 7.3% 3.2%Total 558,826 239,337 6.8% 9.4% 0.1% 6.7%

Forecast, no CC CC35, forecast2000 Base CC 35% only CC 45% only

Potatoes

Climate Impacts Group

University of WashingtonKing Building4909 25th Avenue NESeattle, WA 98195 Ph: 206.616.5350Fax: 206.616.5775karpov@u.washington.edu

Richard Slaughter, Ph.D.907 Harrison BlvdBoise, ID 83702Ph: 208.850.1223Fax: 208.345.9633richard@rsaboise.com

Don Reading, Ph.D.6070 Hill RoadBoise, ID 83703Ph: 208.342.1700Fax: 208.384.1511

dreading@mindspring.com