climate change: fitting the pieces together from the comet program presented by: larry atkinson
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Change:Fitting the pieces togetherFrom the Comet Program
Presented by:
Larry Atkinson
![Page 2: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What is climate
![Page 3: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Weather and Climate
• Will it be hot and humid this July?• Will it be raining a week from today? • Climate and Weather• We can predict climate and climate change
very well. • We can predict weather fairly good for a few
days to a few weeks depending on the season and location.
![Page 5: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Outline
• What changes climate?• Is it real?• How do we know?• Why should we care?• How sure are scientists?• What next—what can we do?
![Page 6: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What changes climate?
• Changes in:– Sun’s output– Earth’s orbit– Drifting continents– Volcanic eruptions– Greenhouse gases
![Page 7: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Global Warming – almost 200 years of knowing about it
• 1827 – Fourier –The ‘greenhouse effect’.
• 1861 – Tyndall –caused by a few trace gases in the atmosphere (water vapor and carbon dioxide)
• 1896 – Arrhenius – Doubling CO2 will raise global temperature about 6C – present estimates are in the 3-4C range.
04/19/23 Old Dominion University - Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative 7
Will Elder, NPS
![Page 9: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Greenhouse gases
Nitrous oxide
Water
Carbon dioxideMethane
Sulfur hexafluoride
![Page 10: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Could the warming be natural?
![Page 12: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Is it real?
![Page 13: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Effects: Snow and ice
Glacier Bay National Park and Reserve's White Thunder Ridge as seen on August 13, 1941 (left) and August 31, 2004 (right). Muir Glacier has retreated out of the field of view, Riggs Glacier has thinned and retreated significantly, and dense new vegetation has appeared. Muir Glacier was more than 2,000 feet thick in 1941 the Glacier Photograph Collection to access this and other photograph pairs.
![Page 15: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Effects on precipitation
![Page 16: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Effects on ecosystems
![Page 17: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
How do we know?
![Page 18: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Present day observations
![Page 19: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Computer models
![Page 20: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Aspen, CO Forecast:
Partly cloudy todayHigh : 28°FLow: 13°F
Increasing clouds over night. Colder tomorrow.
![Page 21: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Why should we care?
![Page 23: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
2003 European Heat Wave
Germany: Lowest river levels this century
Switzerland: Melting glaciers, avalanches
France: >14,000 deaths
Portugal: Forest fires
U.K.: Train rails buckle
![Page 24: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Sea-level rise projections : a few inches to a few feet
•2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles•3 ft: Would inundate Miami•Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies•Half of the world’s population lives along coasts•Big question: Ice sheets
![Page 25: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Ice Sheets and Sea Level RiseWhat if they melted
Area of Oceans 361x106 kilometers2
Volume of Antarctic Ice Sheet 26.5 x106 km3
73 m or over 200 feet
![Page 26: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Volume of Greenland Ice Sheet 2.8 x106 km3
Rise 7 m or 21 feet
![Page 27: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
How sure are scientists?
What don’t we know?• Is there some critical piece of the about climate process we don’t understand?• How and when will our fossil fuel use change?• Will future , yet-to-be-discovered technologies mitigate the problem?• How will changing economics, global population, and political processes affect our ability to tackle the problem?
![Page 29: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The IPCC
![Page 30: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
2014 Conclusions• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal• Medium confidence Warmest 30 years in past 1400• Ocean is warming high confidence and virtually certain• All ice masses are losing mass high confidence • Sea level is rising at fastest rate in 2000 years. High confidence. • Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide at highest levels in
800,000 years. 30% of emitted carbon dioxide in ocean causing acidification.
• Human influence on the climate system is clear. • Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause
further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would extremely likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.”
![Page 31: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Consensus?• Do we know enough about the drivers of climate to know what causes change? • Are we underestimating the Earth system’s complexity ?• Can models accurately simulate the complex climate system? •Are there processes that will limit warming naturally?
![Page 32: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
On the other hand…
• Arctic sea ice melting faster than predicted.• Fossil fuel emissions exceeded most IPCC projections.• Are assumptions about global energy use are too optimistic?•How quickly can developing countries reduce GHG emissions?• Calculations don’t include unexpected melting in Greenland and Antarctica.
![Page 33: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
What do climate scientists really think?
![Page 34: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Be an educated consumer
• IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report (http://www.ipcc.ch)
• Other organizations: – NAS (http://dels.nas.edu/climatechange/)– US CCSP (http://www.climatescience.gov/)
• Look for contrasting opinions• Evaluate the source
![Page 35: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
What next—what can we do?
![Page 36: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
What next—what can we do?
![Page 37: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Produce more fuel-efficient vehiclesReduce vehicle useImprove energy-efficiency in buildingsDevelop carbon capture and storage processesTriple nuclear powerIncrease solar powerDecrease deforestation/plant forestsImprove soil carbon management strategies
![Page 38: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Individual actions
Use mass transit, bike, walk, roller
skate
Tune up your
furnaceUnplug
appliances or plug into a
power strip and switch it off
Buy water-saving appliances and
toilets; installing low-flow shower
heads.
Caulk, weatherstrip, insulate, and replace old windows
Buy products with a U.S. EPA
Energy Star label
![Page 39: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 41: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
A calculation • Let’s calculate how much sea level will rise as the
ocean warms. • Depth of Ocean – average 4,300 meters (2.65
miles)• Coefficient of Expansion 250 x10-6 meters per
meters per degree• Expansion = Depth x Coefficient x temperature
change• 4300m x 250x10-6 m/m/C°x 1°C = how many feet?
![Page 42: Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together From the Comet Program Presented by: Larry Atkinson](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062421/56649ddc5503460f94ad3c4d/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Rough calculation of sea level rise and cities.
• Slope of land and rise rates• Norfolk say 30 feet (10 meters) highest point• Say 5 miles (10,000 m) from edge to center.• Slope = 10,000/10 = 1000 meters inland per
meter of rise. • So if sea level rises 1 meter (3 feet) it will
intrude 1000 meters (3000 feet) into the city.