climate change impacts in the interior columbia basin
TRANSCRIPT
Impacts at the Subbasin Level
• Terrestrial– Fires will increase in frequency, intensity and duration– Outbreaks of insects and other pests will increase– Sagebrush-Steppe and grassland habitat will decline substantially
• Biological– Many species’ ranges will shift northward and upward in elevation– Organisms with short life histories are apt to adapt to climate change
better then organisms with longer life histories– There will be mismatches of formerly coordinated timing between
interdependent species resulting in breeding failures, lack of appropriate food, and weather extremes
Impacts at the Subbasin Level(continued)
• Aquatic– Warm water fishes are likely to increase in abundance and range,
increasing competition and predation on salmonids– Salmonid habitat losses will be significant
• Trout: 8-33% by 2090• Salmon in OR & ID: potentially exceeding 40% by 2090• Salmon in WA: 22% by 2090• Bull trout: 22-90%
– Lower disease resistance– Effect of toxics will increase– Higher summer low-flow mortality– Higher metabolic rates require more food to reach smolt size
Impacts at the Subbasin Level(continued)
• Economic– Present land uses may become less economically
viable• Grazing• Irrigation
– New opportunities will emerge– Sustainability must be a key criterion
Impacts on Salmon• Individual Fish Impacts
• Earlier emergence• Higher physiological stress• Lower disease resistance
• Ecosystem Impacts• Increased competition and predation• Disruption in ecosystem processes (flow, food, etc.)• Changing marine ecosystems (more acidic, upwelling?, etc.)
• Regional Impacts• Reduced total habitat• Redistribution of the most suitable habitat areas• Changes in land uses and local economies
Responses• Protect and Restore Ecosystem Functions
• Prioritize areas (biggest bang for the buck)• Protect and restore habitat• Increase retention time of water in watersheds
• Develop Multi-Disciplinary Strategies• Physical problems (hydrology, erosion, climatology, etc.)• Biological problems (invasives, toxicology, energy budgets)• Social problems (population growth, sustainable economies)
• Build Alliances and Partnerships• Problems are too big and complex for individual groups• Leverage resources• Greater political influence
New Technological Tools
• Greater analytical ability• Multidisciplinary issues
• Biology• Geomorphology• Economics• Sociology
• Community of Stakeholders• Communication• Ongoing involvement• Trust• Ownership of strategies
Subbasin Options• Plan from a broad perspective• Prioritize areas for action to maximize use of time and money• Protect and restore features that store water
• wetlands• floodplains
• Manage water withdrawals to conserve water and improve efficiency of water use• Retain shade along stream channels and protect riparian integrity• Remove barriers to passage into thermal refugia•New impoundments for summer flow management
Habitat Protection Strategies• Fee simple acquisitions• Conservation easements• Settlement and land management agreements• Habitat conservation plans• Water and land leases• Purchase options and right of first refusal• Purchase and transfer of development rights• Tradable environmental credits• USDA programs• Certification programs• Acquisition and conservation of water rights• Salmon strongholds
Summary
• Climate change will cause significant social and economic impacts– Requires multi-disciplinary strategies for effective response– Multidisciplinary partnerships are needed
• To analyze issues• To influence legislation• To implement strategies
• New technology is available address the complex ecosystem impacts of climate change– Using this technology will require greater expertise and resources– Tribes should develop a shared strategy for using new technology