Climate Change Impacts on Puget Sound

Climate Change Impacts on Puget Sound

Nate Mantua, Ph.D.

University of Washington

Climate Impacts Group

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences

July 29, 2008

Nate Mantua, Ph.D.

University of Washington

Climate Impacts Group

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences

July 29, 2008

cses.washington.edu/cigcses.washington.edu/cigcses.washington.edu/cigcses.washington.edu/cig

ColumbiaRiver Basin

The University of The University of Washington’s Washington’s Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group

The University of The University of Washington’s Washington’s Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group

A NOAA-funded research and

education team at the University of Washington

My short list of key issues for climate change impacts on Puget Sound ecosystems

My short list of key issues for climate change impacts on Puget Sound ecosystems

• Variability in winds

• Snowmelt runoff and flooding

• Ocean temperatures

• Ocean acidification

• Sea level rise

• I won’t talk about diseases or invasive species, but they probably belong here too

• Variability in winds

• Snowmelt runoff and flooding

• Ocean temperatures

• Ocean acidification

• Sea level rise

• I won’t talk about diseases or invasive species, but they probably belong here too

Fickle winds can cause large changes in upwelling habitat on short time-space scales

Fickle winds can cause large changes in upwelling habitat on short time-space scales

17.5C on July 1417.5C on July 14

~11C on July 20~11C on July 20

Stonewall Banks Buoy SSTJune 18 - August 2 2005

20 July 2005 SST NOAA CoastWatch image

Buoy SST plot courtesy of Pete Lawson

June July August

Sept 1997 El NiñoSept 1997 El Niño Sept 1998 La NiñaSept 1998 La Niña

The California Current Ecosystem is dynamic because The California Current Ecosystem is dynamic because Pacific winds vary greatly from year to yearPacific winds vary greatly from year to year

Exotic Species Sightings off the BC Coast During 1983, an extreme El Niño year (J. Fulton, P.B.S.)

Exotic Species Sightings off the BC Coast During 1983, an extreme El Niño year (J. Fulton, P.B.S.)

Pacific Pomfret (Brama japonica)

Ocean Sunfish (Mola mola)

Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus)

Pacific Bonito (Sarda chiliensis)

(Pelicanus occidentalis)

Slide provided by Kim Hyatt, DFO

upwelling food webs in our coastal ocean

Cool water, weak stratificationhigh nutrients, a productive “subarcticsubarctic” food-chain with abundant forage fish and few warm water predators

Warm stratified ocean, fewnutrients, low productivity “subtropicalsubtropical” food web, a lack of forage fish and abundant predators

Sea Surface Temperature(Race Rocks lighthouse, Victoria)

Race Rocks Salinity and TemperatureRace Rocks Salinity and Temperature

Annual mean SST and SSS phase diagram for Annual mean SST and SSS phase diagram for Race Rocks lighthouse show trends toward Race Rocks lighthouse show trends toward

warmer and fresher surface waters at Race Rockswarmer and fresher surface waters at Race Rocks

21st Century PNW Temperature Change Scenarios

springtime snowpack will decline in springtime snowpack will decline in the warmest locationsthe warmest locationsspringtime snowpack will decline in springtime snowpack will decline in the warmest locationsthe warmest locations

+2.3C,+4.5% winter precip

+ 4.1 + 4.1 ººF (2.3 F (2.3 ººC) C) &&

+ 4.5% winter + 4.5% winter precipitationprecipitation

+ 4.1°F+ 4.5% winter precip

Figure courtesy of Alan Hamlet, UW Climate Impacts Group

The coldest locations are less sensitive to The coldest locations are less sensitive to warmingwarmingThe coldest locations are less sensitive to The coldest locations are less sensitive to warmingwarming

+ 4.1°F+ 4.5% winter precip

Figure courtesy of Alan Hamlet, UW Climate Impacts Group

Streamflow patterns are temperature dependentStreamflow patterns are temperature dependent

Western Washington Precip

Oct Feb Jun

+3.6 to +5.4°F(+2 to +3°C)

A warming climate will shift runoff timing in snow fed

streams.

Snowmelt runoff in summer will decrease; winter flows

will increase.

A warmer climate and floodingA warmer climate and flooding

• At mid-elevations, more precipitation will fall as rain and less as snow

• a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture: theory and climate models suggest an increased intensity of precipitation– This combination points to an

increased frequency of river flooding in fall and winter

• At mid-elevations, more precipitation will fall as rain and less as snow

• a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture: theory and climate models suggest an increased intensity of precipitation– This combination points to an

increased frequency of river flooding in fall and winter

Future warming will increase stratificationFuture warming will increase stratification

• Observations of the past 50 years show that most of the warming of the global oceans is concentrated in the upper few hundred meters

• Projections for the future point to more of the same -- upper ocean warming and increased stratification– This will likely impact the ability to supply nutrients to

the photic zone and impact the timing, duration and intensity of plankton blooms

• Observations of the past 50 years show that most of the warming of the global oceans is concentrated in the upper few hundred meters

• Projections for the future point to more of the same -- upper ocean warming and increased stratification– This will likely impact the ability to supply nutrients to

the photic zone and impact the timing, duration and intensity of plankton blooms

Window for accelerated growth of HABs in Puget Sound

Rising water temperatures alone may promote earlier and longer lasting blooms of harmful algae (like Alexandrium catenella, which causes psp in Puget Sound).

Stephanie Moore, NOAA/NWFSC

A Changing Chemical Regime for Marine EcosystemsA Changing Chemical Regime for Marine Ecosystems

Ocean AcidificationThat ‘other’ CO2 problem

Estimated aragonite saturation states of the surface ocean for the years 1765, 1995, 2040, and 2100 (Feely et al., submitted), based on the modeling results of Orr et al. (2005) and a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario.

As ocean calcium carbonate saturation state decreases, a concomitant reduction in calcification rates by marine organisms can occur. - reduced extension rates - weaker skeletons/shells

pH

CO32-

CO2(aq)

Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999

NACP Coastal Survey Cruise:11 May - 14 June 2007

Ocean Acidification of the North American

Continental Shelf

Distribution of the depths of the corrosive water (aragonite saturation < 1.0; pH < 7.75) on the continental shelf of western North America from Queen Charlotte Sound, Canada to San Gregorio Baja California Sur, Mexico.

On transect lines 5 and 6 the corrosive water reaches all the way to the surface in the inshore waters near the coast.

Depth of corrosive waters

Feely et al. 2008: Science Express

PNW sea level rise Mote et al 2008PNW sea level rise Mote et al 2008

A timely report from the A timely report from the National Wildlife FederationNational Wildlife FederationA timely report from the A timely report from the National Wildlife FederationNational Wildlife Federation

• The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to project the impacts of sea level rise on Northwest coastal habitats

• The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to project the impacts of sea level rise on Northwest coastal habitats

http://www.nwf.org/sealevelrisehttp://www.nwf.org/sealevelrise

Projected Changes for a 27” slr Projected Changes for a 27” slr (NWF 2007)(NWF 2007)Projected Changes for a 27” slr Projected Changes for a 27” slr (NWF 2007)(NWF 2007)

• Region-wide, estuarine beaches inundated and eroded for a 65% loss

• 44% of tidal flats lost• 13% of inland fresh marsh and 25% of tidal

marsh lost

• Region-wide, estuarine beaches inundated and eroded for a 65% loss

• 44% of tidal flats lost• 13% of inland fresh marsh and 25% of tidal

marsh lost

Projected Changes for a 27” slr Projected Changes for a 27” slr (NWF 2007)(NWF 2007)Projected Changes for a 27” slr Projected Changes for a 27” slr (NWF 2007)(NWF 2007)

• Impacts vary for different location because of the region’s variable habitat and landform types

• For the areas pictured at right, impacts include substantial losses of estuarine beach, brackish marsh, and tidal swamp habitat, and substantial increases in tidal flat and saltmarsh habitat

• Impacts vary for different location because of the region’s variable habitat and landform types

• For the areas pictured at right, impacts include substantial losses of estuarine beach, brackish marsh, and tidal swamp habitat, and substantial increases in tidal flat and saltmarsh habitat

Projected Changes for a 27” slr Projected Changes for a 27” slr (NWF 2007)(NWF 2007)Projected Changes for a 27” slr Projected Changes for a 27” slr (NWF 2007)(NWF 2007)

• Habitat will be converted!– beaches to tide flats; tide flats to shallow water

– Freshwater marsh to saltwater marsh

• Habitat will be converted!– beaches to tide flats; tide flats to shallow water

– Freshwater marsh to saltwater marsh

• Nearshore habitat has already undergone extreme changes due to land use (image reproduced from Sound Science 2007)

• Nearshore habitat has already undergone extreme changes due to land use (image reproduced from Sound Science 2007)

Puget Sound Food-Puget Sound Food-webswebsPuget Sound Food-Puget Sound Food-webswebs

• Puget Sound’s food-webs will be impacted, both directly and indirectly by climate-driven habitat changes

• Predicting isn’t always easy!

• Puget Sound’s food-webs will be impacted, both directly and indirectly by climate-driven habitat changes

• Predicting isn’t always easy!

Image reproduced from Sound Science 2007

CO2 and Climate Change will play an important role in West Coast Marine Ecosystems

CO2 and Climate Change will play an important role in West Coast Marine Ecosystems• Natural patterns of variability (the annual cycle, El Niño, PDO,

etc.) coordinate broad-scale changes in habitat, some aspects of which are predictable

• The regional impacts of global warming are likely to cause many direct and indirect ecosystem impacts

– Biogeographic shifts; match-mismatch between predators and prey; top-down, bottom-up, middle-out impacts; changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations

– changing winds a major factor and a key source of uncertainty

• Ocean acidification due to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 poses potentially large threats to west coast food webs, but those threats are currently not well understood

• Other issue I haven’t mentioned: invasive species, diseases

• Natural patterns of variability (the annual cycle, El Niño, PDO, etc.) coordinate broad-scale changes in habitat, some aspects of which are predictable

• The regional impacts of global warming are likely to cause many direct and indirect ecosystem impacts

– Biogeographic shifts; match-mismatch between predators and prey; top-down, bottom-up, middle-out impacts; changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations

– changing winds a major factor and a key source of uncertainty

• Ocean acidification due to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 poses potentially large threats to west coast food webs, but those threats are currently not well understood

• Other issue I haven’t mentioned: invasive species, diseases

For more informationFor more information

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

http://www.ipcc.ch

• The UW Climate Impacts Group

http://cses.washington.edu/cig

• RealClimate -- a “no spin zone” on climate science

http://realclimate.org

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

http://www.ipcc.ch

• The UW Climate Impacts Group

http://cses.washington.edu/cig

• RealClimate -- a “no spin zone” on climate science

http://realclimate.org